Cotton price today is steady-to-slightly softer, with ICE U.S. Cotton No. 2 futures trading in the high-63-cent area as the market weighs a weaker U.S. dollar against still-cautious demand signals and a heavy technical backdrop.
Key takeaways (Dec. 16, 2025):
- ICE Cotton No. 2 (front-month / March 2026) is trading around 63.8–63.9 cents per pound, with a tight intraday range so far. [1]
- Dollar weakness is helping underpin export competitiveness, but broader risk sentiment remains fragile ahead of key U.S. data. [2]
- Positioning and technicals still lean bearish, keeping rallies capped near the mid-60s. [3]
- Official supply-and-demand forecasts continue to show global production running slightly above mill use in 2025/26, keeping stocks elevated and limiting upside unless demand improves. [4]
Cotton price today: where ICE Cotton is trading on 16.12.2025
As of Tuesday, December 16, 2025, Cotton No. 2 prices are clustered just below 64 cents/lb:
- Financial Times commodity data shows cotton at 63.83 US cents/lb, down 0.11 on the day (-0.17%), with data delayed intraday. [5]
- Investing.com’s Cotton #2 snapshot places the market at 63.89, versus a 63.94 prior close, and a day’s range of 63.78–63.98. [6]
For traders, the details matter because “cotton price today” can differ depending on whether you’re looking at the continuous front month, the actively traded nearby, or a specific delivery month. On the ICE benchmark tracked in many quote feeds, the March 2026 contract specifications include a 50,000-lb contract size and physical settlement. [7]
What’s moving cotton prices today?
1) A softer dollar is offering support
Cotton is priced in U.S. dollars, so a weaker dollar generally improves affordability for international buyers—often a near-term tailwind for ICE futures.
Market commentary tied to the latest session notes cotton found support from a weaker U.S. dollar, alongside a rebound in equities and fresh speculative buying, with the March 2026 contract settling at 63.94 cents/lb in the latest close referenced by industry coverage. [8]
Macro coverage out of Reuters also highlights the dollar “probed lower” as markets focused on a rare Tuesday U.S. payrolls release and shifting rate expectations. [9]
Why it matters for cotton: when mills and merchants hedge or buy physical cotton internationally, currency swings can change the “all-in” landed cost quickly—even if the futures price is stable.
2) Risk sentiment and energy markets are pulling in opposite directions
Cotton often trades as a “growth-sensitive” agricultural commodity: demand is tied to consumer spending on apparel and home textiles. That makes it sensitive to broader risk appetite.
On Dec. 16, Reuters reported oil fell below $60/barrel (Brent)—its lowest since May—on optimism around Russia-Ukraine peace talks and concerns about demand, alongside softer Chinese data. [10]
At the same time, Reuters’ global markets view flagged investor focus on key U.S. jobs data and a generally cautious tone in equities. [11]
Why it matters for cotton: cheaper energy can reduce costs for synthetics (a competing fiber) and can influence inflation expectations, while risk-off trading can curb commodity buying more broadly. The net effect can be choppy, which matches today’s narrow price action.
Latest market news and analysis: Monday’s close still sets the tone for Tuesday
A widely followed daily cotton commentary dated December 16, 2025 noted that cotton futures were up 10–16 points at Monday’s close, with crude oil down and the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. [12]
It also listed key cotton-specific datapoints traders are watching right now:
- Spec funds’ net short reportedly increased by 3,756 contracts to 61,999 (as of Nov. 25). [13]
- U.S. export sales were reported at 148,396 RB for the week ending Nov. 20 (a three-week low), with shipments at 120,825 RB. [14]
- The Seam’s online auction showed 8,516 bales sold at an average 59.57 cents/lb; the Cotlook A Index was cited at 73.95 cents (Dec. 12); ICE certified stocks were 13,971 bales (Dec. 11); and the Adjusted World Price was updated to 50.39 cents/lb. [15]
- Reference settlement levels from that close were Mar 2026: 63.94, May 2026: 65.06, Jul 2026: 66.10. [16]
In parallel coverage published on Dec. 16, the market was described as having potentially formed a short-term low and trading in a defined range, supported by the dollar move and a return of speculative buying. [17]
Cotton technical outlook today: bearish bias still hangs over the market
While cotton prices today are stable near 64 cents, technical signals remain a headwind.
Investing.com’s technical read (timestamped Dec 16, 2025) flags an overall “Strong Sell” stance, with a “Sell” bias in moving averages and a “Strong Sell” tilt among multiple technical indicators. [18]
How traders typically interpret this:
- A strong-sell technical profile doesn’t guarantee lower prices, but it often means rallies can stall quickly unless a fundamental catalyst (weather, demand shock, policy change) forces shorts to cover.
- The market’s ability to hold in the 63-cent zone becomes important—especially with a 52-week low around the 60–61 cent area. [19]
Volume and open interest: participation remains a key tell
One reason cotton can feel “stuck” in tight ranges is participation. The Associated Press cotton futures snapshot (latest available in today’s news flow) referenced an estimated trading volume of 26,077 contracts and open interest of 293,099 (with open interest down 798). [20]
Why it matters: open interest trends can hint at whether money is entering the market (new longs and shorts) or whether moves are mostly short covering and profit taking.
India cotton update: MSP, procurement, and currency add another layer
For physical cotton and yarn markets, India remains a pivotal player—and today’s story is a mix of policy support and currency pressure.
- India’s cotton MSP for 2025/26 has been raised: Medium Staple from ₹7,121 to ₹7,710, and Long Staple from ₹7,521 to ₹8,110. [21]
- A Times of India report noted heavy farmer registration via the Kapas Kisan app to sell to the Cotton Corporation of India at MSP, also referencing ₹8,110 per quintal for long staple and pointing to bearish rates after cotton import duty changes. [22]
- On the currency front, Reuters reported the Indian rupee hit a lifetime low at 91.0750 per dollar before ending at 91.0275 (down 0.3% on the day). [23]
Why this matters for cotton price today:
- A weaker rupee can raise import costs for mills that rely on imported cotton or blends, potentially tightening domestic balances.
- It can also improve export competitiveness for Indian yarn and textiles in local-currency terms, but only if overseas demand holds up.
- Policy-backed procurement at MSP can place a floor under farmgate prices even when global benchmarks are soft.
Forecasts and fundamental outlook: what the latest official projections imply for 2026
Near-term price moves in cotton are often dominated by macro (dollar, rates) and weekly demand signals (export sales). But the bigger ceiling comes from the global balance sheet.
USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS), in its December cotton outlook, projects:
- Global 2025/26 ending stocks rising 1.4 million bales to 76.0 million bales, because production remains above mill use for a second consecutive year. [24]
- World production at 119.8 million bales and global mill use at 118.6 million bales (with mill use projected slightly lower year over year). [25]
- The outlook notes China remains the largest holder of global stocks, projected to account for 46% of the global total, and discusses elevated stocks-to-use conditions. [26]
- ERS also points to continued economic uncertainty affecting cotton demand and indicates the Cotlook A Index is expected to decline again (with the 2024/25 level referenced at 80 cents/lb). [27]
Industry commentary aligns with the idea that cotton is struggling to sustain moves back above the mid-60s. Cotton Incorporated’s December economic letter noted that around late November the NY/ICE March contract tested near 65 cents/lb but later retreated toward 63 cents, while the A Index drifted lower within its range. [28]
Bottom line for the forecast:
With stocks projected high and mill use not accelerating, the market may remain range-bound unless a demand rebound materializes (stronger global apparel orders) or supply is disrupted (weather, acreage shifts, logistics).
Levels and triggers to watch next
If you’re tracking cotton price today with an eye on the coming sessions, the market’s next catalysts are clear:
- U.S. macro data and rates expectations
Reuters highlighted heavy market focus on a Tuesday U.S. payrolls release and what it means for Fed rate-cut timing. [29] - The U.S. dollar trend
A sustained weaker dollar can support cotton exports; a rebound can quickly pressure futures. [30] - Export sales cadence and shipment performance
Recent reports put sales around the mid-100k running-bale area with shipments holding up—important for judging whether demand is improving or just stabilizing. [31] - Positioning and technical pressure
With funds still net short and technicals leaning bearish, the market could be prone to quick short-covering pops—but may struggle to extend without better fundamentals. [32]
The takeaway: cotton price today is steady, but conviction is still missing
Cotton futures on December 16, 2025 are holding close to 64 cents per pound, supported by a softer dollar, yet constrained by cautious demand signals, heavy technicals, and a fundamentally well-supplied global outlook. [33]
For now, cotton’s story is less about a breakout and more about whether the market can hold the low-60s floor while it waits for a clearer turn in either consumer demand or supply risk heading into 2026.
Note: Commodity prices can change rapidly and may be delayed depending on the data source and contract selection.
References
1. markets.ft.com, 2. www.fibre2fashion.com, 3. www.nasdaq.com, 4. ers.usda.gov, 5. markets.ft.com, 6. www.investing.com, 7. www.investing.com, 8. www.fibre2fashion.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.nasdaq.com, 13. www.nasdaq.com, 14. www.nasdaq.com, 15. www.nasdaq.com, 16. www.nasdaq.com, 17. www.fibre2fashion.com, 18. www.investing.com, 19. markets.ft.com, 20. apnews.com, 21. caionline.in, 22. timesofindia.indiatimes.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. ers.usda.gov, 25. ers.usda.gov, 26. ers.usda.gov, 27. ers.usda.gov, 28. lifestylemonitor.cottoninc.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.fibre2fashion.com, 31. www.nasdaq.com, 32. www.nasdaq.com, 33. markets.ft.com
