Updated December 5, 2025
Critical Metals Corp (NASDAQ: CRML) has become one of the loudest tickers in the rare earths and lithium space in 2025. The stock has rocketed from penny-stock levels to a multi‑billion‑dollar valuation, swung violently on rumors of a U.S. government stake, and now trades as a highly speculative bet on Western supply chains for critical minerals.
Here’s a structured look at where CRML stands today, what has changed in the last few months, and how analysts and models are framing the stock going into 2026.
CRML stock today: price, volatility and basic metrics
As of December 5, 2025, Critical Metals Corp stock is trading at $9.94. The intraday range is about $8.07–$10.00, and the 52‑week range stretches from $1.23 to $32.15 — a pretty wild arc even by speculative-miner standards. [1]
Based on this price, CRML’s market capitalization is around $1.0 billion, with trailing twelve‑month EPS of roughly –$0.56 and just four employees on record, underlining that this is still a development-stage mining company rather than an operating producer. [2]
Trading has been extremely choppy this week. MarketBeat reported that on December 4 the stock gapped down, opening at about $7.91 after a prior close of $8.20, with heavy volume above 1.3 million shares and a “Sell” consensus in its data feed. [3] At the same time, other data providers show CRML closing near $9.94, up about 20% on the day, highlighting how intraday swings and fast reversals have become the norm. [4]
From a technical-indicator perspective, Investing.com’s dashboard currently labels CRML a “Strong Buy” on daily charts, reflecting the recent rebound and the stock trading above key short-term moving averages. [5] But as we’ll see, the technical picture is more nuanced once you dig into different models.
The business in a nutshell: Greenland rare earths plus Austrian lithium
Critical Metals Corp is positioning itself as a Western-aligned developer of critical minerals, built on two core assets:
- Tanbreez Rare Earth Project (Greenland) – an enormous deposit in southern Greenland targeting heavy and medium rare earth elements, which are crucial for permanent magnets in EV motors, wind turbines and a host of defence systems. Company and EXIM‑Bank–related documents put the planned project cost around $290 million, with a target of about 85,000 tonnes of concentrate per year once fully ramped. [6]
- Wolfsberg Lithium Project (Austria) – described by the company as Europe’s first fully permitted hard‑rock lithium mine, located about 270 km south of Vienna, designed to serve the European battery supply chain. [7]
These projects make CRML a pure-play bet on non‑Chinese supply of rare earths and lithium into U.S. and European markets — which is exactly why Washington, Brussels and a swarm of defence‑adjacent investors are suddenly very interested.
Government interest: EXIM loan, possible U.S. equity stake and strategic offtakes
EXIM Bank’s potential $120 million loan
In June, Reuters reported that the U.S. Export-Import Bank (EXIM) is considering a $120 million loan to help finance the Tanbreez mine in Greenland. The facility would support a project expected to enter initial production around 2026, producing roughly 85,000 tonnes per year of rare-earth concentrate. [8]
If finalized, this would be the first foreign mining investment of the Trump administration through EXIM and fits squarely into broader U.S. efforts to reduce reliance on China for critical minerals.
U.S. government stake talks and October price spike
In early October, Reuters revealed that the Trump administration is exploring a direct equity stake in Critical Metals. According to reporting summarized by InvestingNews, officials are considering converting a pending US$50 million Defense Production Act grant application into roughly an 8% equity stake, possibly involving warrant structures. [9]
The market reaction was explosive: CRML surged more than 75% in pre‑market trading after the story, briefly pushing the company’s market cap close to $787 million at the time of the report. [10]
Nothing has been finalized yet, but the mere possibility of Washington as a shareholder is one of the main reasons CRML trades with such a large “strategic premium”.
Offtake agreements: locking in demand for Tanbreez
CRML has also moved aggressively to secure long‑term buyers for its future production:
- On August 26, 2025, the company signed a 10‑year offtake LOI with Ucore Rare Metals, whose Louisiana facility is funded in part by the U.S. Department of Defense. Under the terms, Critical Metals expects to supply up to 10,000 tonnes per year of rare-earth concentrate from Tanbreez — about 10% of the mine’s initial planned output. [11]
- On October 8, 2025, CRML announced another LOI, this time with REalloys Inc., a vertically integrated U.S. rare-earth alloys and magnets producer. That deal covers about 15% of projected Tanbreez production, with plans to supply heavy and medium rare earth elements into U.S. “protected markets” such as the National Defense Stockpile and defence industrial base customers. [12]
Taken together, Ucore and REalloys represent roughly 25% of Tanbreez’s planned output already spoken for, at least at the LOI stage. [13]
Ownership of Tanbreez: moving to a 92.5% controlling stake
In late September, Critical Metals amended its agreement with seller Rimbal Pty Ltd. to give itself a path to a 92.5% stake in Tanbreez Mining Greenland A/S, up from about 42%. [14]
Under the revised deal:
- CRML will issue around 14.5 million shares at $8 per share, valuing the transaction at roughly $116 million, and
- the issue price represents a 23% premium to the share price at the time of the announcement. [15]
This follows an earlier stage‑one transaction in which CRML issued 8.4 million shares to reach its initial 42% interest. [16]
From an equity‑holder perspective, that means meaningful dilution, but in exchange for a much larger share of one of the world’s largest heavy‑rare‑earth deposits.
Fresh project news: environmental approvals in Greenland and a court twist in Austria
Greenland: Tanbreez environmental progress
On November 4, 2025, Critical Metals announced that Greenland’s Environment Agency for Mineral Resource Activities (EAMRA) has approved the geochemical test work reports for the Tanbreez hill site. The test work, prepared by Danish engineering firm NIRAS A/S, was judged complete, which the company calls a “key milestone” toward starting mining. [17]
The remaining approvals include:
- sign‑off on the remaining parts of the mine and closure plan, and
- approvals for specific planned activities at the site. [18]
In parallel, the company has said that Tanbreez’s Bankable Feasibility Study (BFS) was about 70% complete as of early September and “on schedule” to finish by Q4 2025, which is a key prerequisite for full project financing. [19]
Austria: Wolfsberg lithium faces an EIA rethink
On November 25, 2025, things got more complicated at the Wolfsberg lithium project. Austria’s Federal Administrative Court:
- overturned the Carinthian state government’s decision that no Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) was required for the mine,
- accepted that the project area is below the existing 10‑hectare threshold in Austrian law, but
- found that this legal threshold may be incompatible with EU law, and ordered a case‑by‑case review to determine whether an EIA is necessary. [20]
The court also allowed an appeal to the Austrian Administrative Court of Justice, adding another layer of legal uncertainty. CRML’s management responded that they do not expect any impact on the timing of mining at Wolfsberg and remain confident the approval will ultimately be reinstated. [21]
For investors, this is a classic regulatory risk flag: the project remains advanced, but the approval path is now clearly more complex than the company’s “fully permitted” marketing line suggests.
Capital moves: PIPE financings and a high‑end copper stockpile
CRML has been extremely active on the financing front in 2025, leaning heavily on equity and equity‑linked deals.
Two PIPE deals in October
- On October 6, the company signed a $35 million PIPE with an institutional investor, issuing 5 million ordinary shares and warrants for 10 million shares at a $7 strike price. The proceeds are earmarked to advance Tanbreez’s commercialization roadmap. [22]
- On October 16, CRML followed up with a $50 million PIPE with another fundamental institutional investor. This time it issued about 1.47 million ordinary shares plus 1.56 million pre‑funded warrants, again to fund development of the 4.7‑billion‑tonne Tanbreez deposit. [23]
Taken together, that’s $85 million of gross proceeds raised in less than two weeks, but at the cost of significant equity dilution and future warrant overhang.
$20 million all‑share deal for ultra‑high‑purity copper powder
On November 21, 2025, Critical Metals announced a more unusual transaction: it issued 2.0 million shares at $10 each (a 40% premium to the prior close) in exchange for a 40 kg stockpile of 99.96% ultra‑high‑purity copper powder from a European family office. [24]
Key details:
- The material is quoted in the $1,500–$2,500 per gram range, giving it enormous notional value relative to its physical mass.
- The company says the stockpile is intended for defence, aerospace, advanced energy and semiconductor customers, and could expand its Department of War and NATO‑aligned supply capabilities. [25]
Despite the strategic framing, StockTitan’s market reaction data show CRML fell about 4.6% on the day, closing near $6.90, suggesting investors were wary of additional dilution and questioned the scale of the immediate commercial impact. [26]
Defence and geopolitics: who’s advising CRML?
The company is leaning hard into its role as a national security‑adjacent supplier.
On October 22, 2025, CRML appointed Rear Admiral Peter Stamatopoulos (U.S. Navy, ret.) to its advisory board. Stamatopoulos previously led the U.S. Navy Supply Corps and commanded Naval Supply Systems Command, overseeing a 25,000‑strong logistics organization with billions in annual sales. [27]
On joining, he explicitly framed Tanbreez as a “game changer” for U.S. and NATO critical minerals autonomy and emphasized the goal of reducing China’s control over rare earths supply chains. [28]
Combined with the EXIM discussions, Ucore and REalloys offtakes, and the prospective U.S. equity stake, this advisory board move reinforces a clear narrative: CRML wants investors to see it as a strategic pillar of Western defence‑industrial resilience.
What do analysts and models say about CRML now?
Fundamental analyst coverage: tiny but bullish
On the traditional Wall Street side, coverage is still thin:
- TipRanks shows one analyst (Tim Moore, Clear Street) rating CRML a “Moderate Buy”, with a 12‑month price target of $14.00. Based on the price when he updated the target on October 6, this implied nearly 88% upside; from today’s ~$9.94 level, it still suggests notable but more modest upside if the target is maintained. [29]
Conflicting ratings: Sell from other screens
MarketBeat’s automated news alert on December 4 paints a more cautious picture:
- It notes that Weiss Ratings and WallStreetZen have both tagged CRML as a “Sell”,
- highlights very weak liquidity metrics (quick and current ratios around 0.13), and
- reports a debt‑to‑equity ratio of about 0.16 with roughly 86% institutional ownership after several hedge funds accumulated positions. [30]
That divergence — one human analyst with a high upside target versus screen‑driven “Sell” labels — is exactly what you’d expect in a highly speculative, policy‑sensitive story stock.
Quant / technical models: neutral to mildly bearish
AI‑driven analytics platform Intellectia.ai currently shows:
- 3 bullish and 4 bearish technical signals for CRML,
- a mid‑term moving‑average setup that is bullish (20‑day SMA above 60‑day),
- but negative long‑term patterns (60‑day below 200‑day) and mixed short‑term signals. [31]
Their model flags:
- Resistance levels around $10.17 and $11.35, where breakouts could trigger further buy signals, and
- Support around roughly $6.35 and $5.17, where breakdowns might confirm a bearish turn. [32]
Intellectia also tracks a short‑sale ratio of about 26% as of December 3, but notes that the ratio is falling, which can indicate short‑covering after the recent rally. [33]
In other words, quant tools currently lean more neutral to cautious, even as momentum‑style dashboards like Investing.com show “Strong Buy” based purely on recent price action. [34]
Key risks for CRML investors
Regardless of your view on the stock, several risk factors stand out clearly in the latest newsflow:
- Regulatory risk in both core jurisdictions
- Financing and dilution
- The EXIM loan and potential U.S. equity stake are not yet finalized. The company has instead relied heavily on PIPE financings and share‑based acquisitions, increasing share count and adding warrant overhang. [37]
- Execution risk on mega-projects
- Tanbreez’s BFS is targeted for completion around Q4 2025; cost estimates, operating assumptions and IRR will matter a lot to whether the project can be financed on reasonable terms. [38]
- Any delay in EXIM or strategic equity funding could force more dilutive equity raises.
- Commodity and policy volatility
- CRML’s fortunes are tied to rare earth prices, lithium prices and U.S.–China strategic tensions. A policy reversal, trade détente, or slump in EV demand could all compress the “strategic premium” embedded in the stock. [39]
- Liquidity and fundamentals
- The company is still pre‑production, with negative earnings and thin liquidity ratios (quick and current ratios near 0.13), meaning it remains dependent on external capital for the foreseeable future. [40]
Outlook for 2026: what the market will be watching
Rather than a single price forecast, it’s more realistic to think in terms of milestones that could push CRML meaningfully higher or lower over the next 12–18 months:
- Tanbreez BFS completion and economics – A robust, independently vetted BFS with attractive IRR assumptions and clear cost estimates would be a major de‑risking event. Weak numbers or delays would likely hit the stock.
- Definitive agreements on EXIM loan and any U.S. equity stake – Final, binding documents (or the lack of them) will tell the market how serious Washington is about backing Tanbreez financially. [41]
- Conversion of LOIs into binding offtake contracts – The Ucore and REalloys letters of intent are promising, but investors will want to see definitive offtake agreements including pricing formulas, volumes and conditions. [42]
- Resolution of the Wolfsberg EIA dispute – A favourable outcome would restore the “first fully permitted EU lithium mine” storyline; an adverse ruling could delay or reshape the project. [43]
- Balance between dilution and value creation – Given its negative EPS and financing needs, CRML will likely continue raising capital. The ratio of new shares issued to project value unlocked will be crucial for long‑term shareholders. [44]
Bottom line
Critical Metals Corp has rapidly evolved from an obscure SPAC result into a high‑beta macro and geopolitics trade:
- On the upside, it offers leveraged exposure to one of the world’s largest heavy rare earth deposits, a strategically located European lithium project, and a web of emerging relationships with U.S. defence‑linked customers and agencies. [45]
- On the downside, it combines regulatory complexity, heavy dilution, project‑execution risk and extreme share‑price volatility, all wrapped in a political story that could change with a single headline. [46]
For now, the professional and algorithmic verdicts are split: a single human analyst with a bullish $14 target, some rating services firmly in the “Sell” camp, and technical models hovering between neutral and cautious. What seems certain is that CRML will remain a news‑driven, event‑sensitive stock throughout 2026, with each regulatory ruling, financing announcement or government decision capable of moving the price dramatically in either direction.
References
1. www.investing.com, 2. www.investing.com, 3. www.marketbeat.com, 4. stockinvest.us, 5. www.investing.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.criticalmetalscorp.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.criticalmetalscorp.com, 12. www.criticalmetalscorp.com, 13. www.criticalmetalscorp.com, 14. www.criticalmetalscorp.com, 15. www.mining.com, 16. tanbreez.com, 17. www.criticalmetalscorp.com, 18. www.criticalmetalscorp.com, 19. www.criticalmetalscorp.com, 20. www.stocktitan.net, 21. www.stocktitan.net, 22. www.criticalmetalscorp.com, 23. www.criticalmetalscorp.com, 24. www.stocktitan.net, 25. www.stocktitan.net, 26. www.stocktitan.net, 27. www.criticalmetalscorp.com, 28. www.criticalmetalscorp.com, 29. www.tipranks.com, 30. www.marketbeat.com, 31. intellectia.ai, 32. intellectia.ai, 33. intellectia.ai, 34. www.investing.com, 35. www.criticalmetalscorp.com, 36. www.stocktitan.net, 37. www.criticalmetalscorp.com, 38. www.criticalmetalscorp.com, 39. www.reuters.com, 40. www.marketbeat.com, 41. www.reuters.com, 42. www.criticalmetalscorp.com, 43. www.stocktitan.net, 44. www.marketbeat.com, 45. www.reuters.com, 46. www.marketbeat.com
