CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: CRWD) just turned December 2–3, 2025 into a major checkpoint for anyone watching high‑growth cybersecurity and AI stocks.
The company delivered another “beat and raise” quarter, guided above Wall Street expectations, and rolled out more AI‑driven ambitions for its Falcon platform. At the same time, the stock is wobbling slightly after a huge run, and the valuation debate is getting louder.
Here’s a full breakdown of where CrowdStrike stock stands as of December 3, 2025, including the latest news, forecasts and analysis.
CrowdStrike stock today: price, performance and volatility
As of the last full trading day before earnings (December 2, 2025), CrowdStrike shares closed at $516.55, up about 2.5% on the session ahead of the report. [1]
Immediately after earnings, the picture got more complicated:
- After-hours on Dec 2: MarketWatch data shows CRWD sliding to roughly $500.93, down about 3% from the close. [2]
- Pre‑market on Dec 3: TIKR estimates about a 3% pre‑market drop, with the stock still coming off that $516 pre‑earnings level. [3]
Despite the pullback, CrowdStrike remains near the upper end of its trading history:
- 52‑week range: roughly $298 – $566.90 per share. [4]
- Market cap: around $126–130 billion, depending on intraday price, putting CrowdStrike among the world’s ~150 most valuable public companies. [5]
- 12‑month performance: multiple sources peg the 1‑year gain in the 40–50% range, even after recent volatility. [6]
In other words: the business is clearly working, the stock has already run hard, and investors are now arguing about how much future growth is already priced in.
Q3 FY2026: earnings beat with record ARR and cash flow
CrowdStrike’s fiscal Q3 2026 (quarter ended October 31, 2025) was strong almost any way you slice it. According to the company’s official release and subsequent coverage: [7]
- Revenue:
- Total revenue: $1.23 billion, up 22% year over year (from about $1.01 billion).
- That was slightly ahead of consensus estimates around $1.21–1.22 billion. [8]
- Subscription revenue:
- $1.17 billion, up about 21% vs. the prior year. [9]
- Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR):
- Total ARR reached $4.92 billion, up 23% year over year.
- Net new ARR was a record ~$265 million, with growth in that metric accelerating to over 70% vs. the same quarter a year ago. [10]
- Profitability (GAAP vs non‑GAAP):
- Operating metrics & cash flow:
- Non‑GAAP operating income: about $265 million, implying an adjusted operating margin in the low‑20s. [13]
- Cash from operations: about $398 million (a record).
- Free cash flow (FCF): about $296 million, another record, roughly 24% of revenue for the quarter. [14]
- Cash and equivalents on the balance sheet: around $4.8 billion. [15]
Management called it “one of the best quarters in company history,” pointing to acceleration in ARR growth and strength across endpoint, cloud security, identity protection, and its next‑generation SIEM product. [16]
AI‑driven Falcon platform and partnerships
A big chunk of the bullish narrative now revolves around AI.
On both the earnings call and in prepared remarks, CrowdStrike framed itself as an “enabler of secure AI transformation” and even as the “operating system of cybersecurity.” [17]
Recent developments backing that up include:
- AI features in Falcon:
The company has rolled out AI‑based detection, triage and automation features across its Falcon platform, including tools launched in September that further weave AI into security workflows. [18] - Falcon Flex model:
ARR from customers on the Falcon Flex subscription model has now surpassed $1.35 billion, growing more than 200% year over year, underscoring how CrowdStrike is pushing customers deeper into its platform rather than selling point products. [19] - Strategic partnerships:
- AWS selected CrowdStrike’s next‑gen SIEM as the default SIEM option in its security console, a major distribution and credibility win for the Falcon platform. [20]
- Additional partnerships with AWS, EY, CoreWeave, Kroll, F5 and others are designed to make CrowdStrike a core layer for AI and cloud workloads. [21]
- CrowdStrike was also named AWS 2025 Global Security Partner and Global Marketplace Partner of the Year and is collaborating with HPE’s “Unleash AI” program, extending its reach into AI‑heavy hybrid environments. [22]
Put simply: the company is doing everything it can to own the AI‑era security stack, not just endpoint antivirus.
Guidance: raised Q4 and full‑year outlook
If you’re wondering why analysts are still broadly bullish even at lofty valuations, this guidance is a big part of the answer.
For Q4 FY2026 (ending January 31, 2026), CrowdStrike now expects: [23]
- Revenue:$1.29–$1.30 billion, well ahead of prior Street estimates around $1.22 billion.
- Non‑GAAP EPS:$1.09–$1.11.
For the full fiscal year 2026, the company raised guidance to: [24]
- Revenue:$4.80–$4.81 billion, up from previous guidance in the high‑$4.7 billion range.
- Non‑GAAP EPS:$3.70–$3.72.
Management also increased its expectations for second‑half net new ARR growth to at least 50% year over year, and reiterated a target of 20% net new ARR growth in fiscal 2027 off this higher base. [25]
Reuters framed this as a notable turnaround after the reputational hit CrowdStrike took from a 2024 software update that triggered widespread Windows outages across banks, hospitals and airports worldwide. [26]
So why is the stock down after a “beat and raise”?
On paper, this is the kind of quarter growth investors usually cheer. Yet the stock is slightly lower in early trading.
Several factors seem to be in play:
- Profit‑taking after a big run
TIKR notes that CRWD is down about 3% in pre‑market trading on December 3 despite the beat, after a roughly 25% rally in the last three months and a strong year overall. [27] - Valuation is extremely rich
Across multiple data providers:- Trailing P/E based on GAAP earnings is deeply negative (around –400x), reflecting the fact that the company is still posting small GAAP losses. [28]
- Zacks and others estimate a trailing P/E above 100x on a non‑GAAP basis, roughly double the broader security software group. [29]
- GuruFocus pegs CrowdStrike’s forward P/E around 108x, price‑to‑sales near 29–30x, and price‑to‑book in the mid‑30s — all near historical highs. [30]
- Some technical and short‑term caution
- Investor’s Business Daily highlights a strong year‑to‑date move but notes an Accumulation/Distribution rating of D‑, signaling some recent selling pressure. [32]
- Technical service StockInvest labels the near‑term outlook “negative,” based on recent signals, even while estimating a “fair” opening price near $515 for December 3. [33]
This is classic “high expectations” territory: CrowdStrike did almost everything right, but the bar was already high.
Wall Street ratings: overwhelmingly positive, but increasingly price‑sensitive
Despite valuation concerns, traditional Wall Street research is still heavily tilted toward the bull side.
Consensus ratings and average price targets
Different aggregators show slightly different numbers, but the pattern is clear: most analysts rate CRWD a Buy/Outperform with modest upside from current levels.
- StockAnalysis:
- 40 analysts
- Consensus rating: Buy
- Average 12‑month price target:$531.7
- Range: $343 – $640 (about –34% to +24% from current levels). [34]
- TipRanks:
- 36 Wall Street analysts over the last 3 months
- Consensus: Moderate Buy (25 Buy, 10 Hold, 1 Sell)
- Average target:$552.35, implying roughly 8–9% upside from around $509. [35]
- MarketBeat / MarketBeat‑tracked research:
- Consensus rating: “Moderate Buy”
- Average target around $549.89, based on a mix of Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and a couple of Sell ratings. [36]
- GuruFocus / Investing.com datasets:
- Roughly 47 analysts with an average target around $520–525, implying only a few percent upside from recent prices and describing the stock as trading above estimated fair value. [37]
QuiverQuant, which tracks rating trends alongside social chatter, finds no recent sell initiations and a median target of about $530, based on 36 analysts issuing targets in the last six months. [38]
Fresh target hikes after the Q3 print
Over the last few weeks and days, a parade of banks and brokers has nudged targets higher:
- UBS: raised its CRWD price target from $580 to $590, reiterating a Buy rating after the strong Q3, noting a ~47.6% 1‑year return and highlighting record net new ARR and premium multiples. [39]
- DA Davidson: maintained Buy, lifting its target to $580 from $515. [40]
- Oppenheimer:Outperform, boosted target to $580. [41]
- Truist, Stifel, Needham, TD Cowen, BTIG, Stephens and others: many now cluster in the $575–$600 range, often with strong‑buy or buy ratings. [42]
- Rosenblatt: one of the more aggressive calls, with a $630 target and Buy rating. [43]
- Mizuho, Deutsche Bank, Evercore ISI: more cautious; Mizuho sits at $540 with Neutral, Deutsche Bank at $475 with Hold, and Evercore around $430 while keeping an In‑Line view. [44]
The big picture: most analysts think there’s still upside, but the days of easy multiple expansion may be behind the stock unless growth re‑accelerates further.
Alternative and long‑term forecasts: algorithms and big‑picture bulls
Beyond traditional analysts, there’s a cottage industry forecasting future CRWD prices.
Some examples:
- 24/7 Wall St. 2025–2030 forecast:
Projects “strong upside” through the decade, citing CrowdStrike’s leadership in cloud security, platform consolidation, and partnerships with tech heavyweights like Google, F5 and CoreWeave. [45] - Benzinga/Yahoo predictions:
Earlier in 2025, one widely circulated piece noted that some analysts see potential for CRWD to reach about $766 by 2030, assuming continued dominance in cloud‑native security and robust growth. [46] - LongForecast (algorithmic projections):
A purely quantitative forecasting site paints a wildly bullish path, with prices modeled into the $700+ range by late 2026 and eventually up into the four‑digit territory (over $2,000) by 2029–2030. [47]
These algorithmic and ultra‑long‑term predictions should be treated as theoretical scenarios, not guarantees. They basically encode “what happens if current growth and momentum never meaningfully stumble” — a non‑trivial assumption in cybersecurity, where competition and technology cycles move fast.
Ownership, insider activity and institutional flows
CrowdStrike is now very much an institutional stock:
- Around 71% of shares are held by institutions and hedge funds, according to both MarketBeat and GuruFocus data. [48]
- Giants like Vanguard, Geode, Norges Bank and UBS Asset Management have all increased positions in recent quarters, while some firms have exited or trimmed exposure after big gains. [49]
Recent filings highlight both buying and selling:
- Beacon Pointe Advisors increased its stake by about 4.5% in Q2, now holding over 32,000 shares worth roughly $16.6 million. [50]
- Groupe la Francaise cut its position by about 35%, selling more than 10,000 shares. [51]
Insider behavior leans decisively toward selling:
- Over the past 90 days, insiders have sold more than 100,000 shares, including CEO George Kurtz and other senior executives trimming small fractions of their large holdings. [52]
- QuiverQuant tracks 214 insider sell transactions and zero insider buys in the past six months. [53]
Heavy insider selling at high valuations doesn’t automatically mean trouble—it can simply reflect diversification—but it does add another layer to the “priced for perfection” narrative.
Valuation check: high growth, high expectations
From a fundamental perspective, CrowdStrike is a classic high‑growth, premium‑multiple story:
- Growth:
- Profitability (GAAP):
- Operating and net margins are still negative on a GAAP basis (operating around –9%, net around –7%), although trending in the right direction. [57]
- Balance sheet:
- Current ratio around 1.8–1.9 and low debt‑to‑equity (~0.2), indicating solid financial flexibility. [58]
- Valuation multiples:
GuruFocus bluntly notes that CrowdStrike trades at a “premium valuation” across nearly every metric it tracks, and flags valuation as one of the main risks despite strong growth and a robust balance sheet. [61]
Key risks investors are watching
As of December 3, 2025, recurring themes in analyst notes and commentary include:
- Valuation compression risk
If growth slows even slightly or the macro environment turns, a stock trading at 100x forward earnings and ~30x sales could see a sharp multiple reset. [62] - Competition in cybersecurity and AI
CrowdStrike is up against heavyweight rivals like Palo Alto Networks, Microsoft, Fortinet and SentinelOne, all investing aggressively in AI‑driven security. [63] - Execution and reliability after the 2024 outage
The global outage caused by a faulty update remains in the background. Any repeat reliability issue could put real pressure on growth and renewal pricing. [64] - Insider and institutional behavior
Continual insider selling and large institutions actively trading around positions mean sentiment could swing quickly if fundamentals disappoint. [65] - Macro and IT‑spending cycles
Security spending is relatively resilient, but not fully immune to budget slowdowns—especially if customers push back on premium pricing after the outage discounts some demanded in 2024. [66]
Bottom line: what December 3, 2025 means for CrowdStrike stock
On December 3, 2025, the core story around CrowdStrike looks like this:
- The business is firing on almost all cylinders: accelerating ARR, record cash flow, strong AI‑driven product momentum, and raised guidance on both revenue and earnings. [67]
- The stock is wrestling with gravity: after a powerful multi‑month rally and years of multiple expansion, investors are debating whether AI‑fueled growth fully justifies one of the richest valuations in cybersecurity. [68]
- Wall Street, for now, is still firmly in the bull camp, with most targets clustered modestly above the current price and a consensus of Buy/Outperform. But more notes are explicitly mentioning valuation risk and “limited near‑term upside.” [69]
For investors and traders, the question after this quarter isn’t “Is CrowdStrike executing?”—it clearly is. The question is whether triple‑digit forward multiples can coexist with a business that, while excellent, now has to clear a much higher bar every quarter.
References
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