As of 3:50 p.m. ET in New York on Friday, December 26, 2025, U.S. markets are in a thin, post-Christmas trading session—the kind of low-liquidity backdrop where price moves can look bigger (or quieter) than the underlying news flow. [1]
CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: CRWD) was trading around $480.94 in the final stretch of the regular session, up about 0.8% on the day, with an intraday range roughly between $475.20 and $482.00.
That modest gain is landing as broader Wall Street action hovers near record highs. Reuters described Friday’s tape as light-volume with limited catalysts, as investors watch whether the seasonal “Santa Claus rally” effect continues into year-end. [2]
CRWD stock price action: why CrowdStrike is moving in a quiet market
In a session where major indexes have been oscillating near record peaks, CRWD’s move looks consistent with a market that’s “catching its breath” after a strong multi-day run, rather than reacting to a single breaking headline. [3]
That matters for investors because holiday trading conditions often amplify two forces at once:
- Year-end positioning and rebalancing (portfolio “window dressing,” tax-driven moves, and sector rotation).
- Headline sensitivity (smaller orders can push prices more than usual).
Reuters’ week-ahead preview also flagged that year-end adjustments and light trading volumes can exaggerate price moves, with investors watching for next week’s macro catalysts such as Federal Reserve meeting minutes. [4]
The biggest fundamental driver: CrowdStrike’s raised outlook and accelerating ARR
The most important recent company-specific catalyst remains CrowdStrike’s fiscal Q3 2026 results (quarter ended Oct. 31, 2025) and updated outlook, delivered earlier this month.
In its filing/earnings release, CrowdStrike reported:
- Total revenue:$1.23 billion, up 22% year over year
- Subscription revenue:$1.17 billion, up 21% year over year
- Ending ARR:$4.92 billion, up 23% year over year
- Net new ARR:$265.3 million added in the quarter (a record quarter for net new ARR, per the company)
- Operating cash flow:$397.5 million (record)
- Free cash flow:$295.9 million (record) [5]
Just as important for a subscription security platform, CrowdStrike highlighted expanding platform adoption: 49% of customers had six or more modules, 34% had seven or more, and 24% had eight or more as of Oct. 31. [6]
That “land-and-expand” profile is a central part of the bull case for CRWD: it suggests CrowdStrike isn’t only winning new customers—it’s steadily replacing point solutions and becoming more embedded across security workflows.
Guidance and forecasts: what CrowdStrike expects next
For the fiscal Q4 2026 period ending Jan. 31, 2026, CrowdStrike guided to:
- Revenue:$1.29B–$1.30B
- Non-GAAP EPS:$1.09–$1.11
For the full fiscal year 2026 ending Jan. 31, 2026, the company guided to:
- Revenue: about $4.7966B–$4.8066B
- Non-GAAP EPS: about $3.70–$3.72 [7]
Reuters also reported that CrowdStrike’s Q4 revenue outlook came in above analysts’ expectations (per LSEG), as adoption of AI-integrated tools supports demand across its cybersecurity suite. [8]
What Wall Street expects next
For investors thinking one step beyond company guidance, the next earnings date is a key calendar item. Zacks lists CrowdStrike’s next earnings release as expected on March 3, 2026, with an EPS estimate around $1.10 (note: dates can shift until confirmed by the company). [9]
AI, “agentic” security, and platform expansion: what management is emphasizing
CrowdStrike is leaning hard into the narrative that cybersecurity is becoming an AI arms race—not just for attackers, but for defenders trying to automate triage, detection, and response inside sprawling enterprise environments.
In its Q3 commentary, CEO George Kurtz called CrowdStrike “the enabler of secure AI transformation,” pointing to platform execution and the Falcon Flex subscription model as key drivers of consolidation. [10]
The company also disclosed a long list of “recent highlights,” including:
- New and enhanced offerings across identity, data protection, IT, XIoT, and “Charlotte AI” innovations
- “Threat AI,” described as an agentic threat intelligence system
- A broader “Agentic Security Workforce” push
- FedRAMP High authorization for Charlotte AI (a notable step for U.S. federal usage)
- Acquisition of Pangea, described as an AI security leader [11]
Reuters framed this product momentum as part of a broader effort to consolidate security operations for customers, including AI-driven detection/triage tooling. [12]
Partnerships in focus: AWS and CoreWeave provide “proof points”
Two partnerships keep showing up in both company materials and third-party commentary because they connect CrowdStrike to where enterprise budgets are flowing: cloud and AI infrastructure.
AWS: security partner awards and marketplace scale
CrowdStrike announced it was named AWS 2025 Global Security Partner of the Year and Global Marketplace Partner of the Year, and said it surpassed $1 billion in AWS Marketplace sales within a single calendar year (per the company’s statement). [13]
CoreWeave: securing AI clouds “by design”
In November, CoreWeave and CrowdStrike announced a partnership to combine CoreWeave’s AI Cloud infrastructure with the CrowdStrike Falcon platform, pitching the collaboration as foundational to securing the “agentic era” of AI workloads. [14]
For investors, these partnerships matter less as press-release trophies and more as indicators of distribution (AWS marketplace) and workload relevance (AI training/inference environments), both of which can support durable subscription expansion.
Analyst forecasts and price targets: bullish calls, but valuation debates persist
Recent analyst notes around the Q3 print show a familiar CRWD pattern: strong fundamentals, paired with valuation sensitivity.
A selection of notable updates:
- Citi’s Fatima Boolani raised Citi’s price target to $595 (from $575) and maintained a Buy rating, citing a “clean” quarter and robust demand drivers. [15]
- Goldman Sachs’ Gabriela Borges raised Goldman’s price target to $564 (from $535) and kept a Buy rating—while also noting the challenge of driving upside versus “premium valuation” and high expectations. [16]
- Scotiabank raised its target to $613 (from $600) and kept an Outperform rating, calling the Q3 beat “really clean” and saying the model is “materially re-accelerating.” [17]
- Evercore ISI raised its target to $460 (from $430) and kept an In Line rating, arguing upside was “somewhat muted” and that valuation “seems to reflect a bullish scenario.” [18]
That spread—targets both above and below the current trading zone—highlights the central investor tension in CRWD: execution has improved, but the stock often prices in a lot of perfection.
A Nasdaq analysis piece published in December put it plainly: even with re-accelerating ARR, a high forward price-to-sales multiple leaves less room for disappointment and can keep some investors on the sidelines. [19]
Meanwhile, Reuters quoted Farhan Badami, a market analyst at eToro, saying the guidance lift shows CrowdStrike is “taking the AI opportunity… growing margins and scaling efficiently,” while noting it’s not a “world-beating upgrade.” [20]
Risks investors still need to price in: incident costs, litigation, and insider selling
Even as results improve, CrowdStrike still carries overhangs that can resurface in headlines—and volatility.
Ongoing July 19 incident-related costs
CrowdStrike’s disclosures include continuing costs “associated with the July 19 Incident and related matters,” including line items such as legal fees and remediation. In the fiscal Q3 2026 materials, the company showed net incident-related costs totaling $26.173 million for the three months ended Oct. 31, 2025 (as presented in the company’s table). [21]
Litigation risk: Delta lawsuit proceeds
One of the highest-profile legal developments remains Delta Air Lines’ case related to the 2024 outage. Reuters reported in May 2025 that a Georgia judge ruled Delta can proceed with most of its lawsuit against CrowdStrike, tied to flight disruptions and alleged damages. [22]
Insider selling headlines—what the filings say
This week also brought fresh insider-trading headlines, but filings provide important context.
A Form 4 filing for CFO Burt Podbere showed sales executed on Dec. 22, 2025. The filing’s remarks state that the reported sales were made to cover tax withholdings due on vesting of RSUs, consistent with company administrative policies. [23]
Investors often view tax-withholding sales differently than discretionary selling—but they still can affect short-term sentiment in a thin market.
What to watch before the next session: a practical CRWD checklist for year-end trading
Because it’s 3:50 p.m. ET and the market is approaching the close, the most useful investor mindset may be: “What could change between now and the next open?”
Here’s what long-term and swing-oriented investors typically monitor for CRWD into the next session (the next regular trading day after Friday is Monday, Dec. 29):
1) After-hours headlines (and liquidity)
Post-close news can move high-multiple software names quickly—especially in the final week of the year, when liquidity is thinner. Reuters noted that light volumes can exaggerate moves, particularly around year-end positioning. [24]
2) Market-wide catalysts: Fed minutes and rate expectations
Next week’s Fed minutes are a marquee macro event on the calendar, and markets remain sensitive to the “higher-for-longer vs. more cuts” debate. Reuters reported that investors are focused on how much (and how soon) the Fed could cut again, with minutes due next week. [25]
For CRWD specifically, rates matter because valuation in premium-growth software can compress quickly if yields jump or if the market rotates away from tech.
3) Company-specific KPIs that tend to move CRWD
If you’re screening CRWD into early 2026, the following metrics have been repeatedly emphasized by management and analysts:
- Net new ARR and ending ARR growth (the core subscription-growth pulse) [26]
- Falcon Flex adoption and its contribution to expansion and consolidation narratives [27]
- Module adoption rates (6+ / 7+ / 8+ modules), a proxy for platform stickiness [28]
- Free cash flow and margin progress (where valuation debates often center) [29]
4) “Premium valuation” sensitivity
Even bullish analysts have been explicit that expectations are high. Goldman’s note referenced the challenge of generating upside versus “premium valuation” and high expectations, while Evercore flagged valuation as reflecting a bullish scenario. [30]
In practice, that means CRWD can rally on strong execution—but it can also dip sharply on guidance that’s merely “good,” not “great.”
Bottom line
CrowdStrike stock is ending the week in a market that’s still broadly constructive—near record highs, with investors watching the Santa Claus rally window and key macro catalysts into year-end. [31]
For CRWD, the dominant story remains: re-accelerating ARR and raised guidance, supported by AI-driven platform expansion and major partnerships—but balanced by a valuation that demands continued clean execution, plus ongoing incident-related and legal overhangs. [32]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.sec.gov, 6. www.sec.gov, 7. www.sec.gov, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.zacks.com, 10. www.sec.gov, 11. www.sec.gov, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.crowdstrike.com, 14. investors.coreweave.com, 15. www.tipranks.com, 16. www.tipranks.com, 17. www.tipranks.com, 18. www.tipranks.com, 19. www.nasdaq.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.sec.gov, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.sec.gov, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.sec.gov, 27. www.sec.gov, 28. www.sec.gov, 29. www.sec.gov, 30. www.tipranks.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.sec.gov
