New York, Jan 12, 2026, 07:49 EST — Premarket
- Brent fell to about $63 as traders pared back Iran risk premium
- Vitol and Trafigura moved early on Venezuelan crude sales, sources said
- Exxon slipped premarket; traders watch CPI Tuesday and U.S. inventory data
Brent crude futures slipped 31 cents, or 0.5%, to $63.03 a barrel by 5:45 a.m. ET (1045 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 36 cents, or 0.6%, to $58.76. Iran’s foreign minister said the situation was “under total control” after weekend violence, blunting some supply fears. “Lower European equity markets and lack of additional supply disruptions is moderately weighing on oil prices,” UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said. (Reuters)
The dip came after a sharp move higher late last week, when traders rebuilt a risk premium — the extra dollars paid for fear of disruption — into the front of the curve. It has not taken much to shake it back out. The market is still leaning on headlines and positioning more than barrels.
Venezuela is the other moving piece. Vitol and Trafigura have landed first-mover deals to help restart Venezuelan crude flows while U.S. majors stayed cautious on legal and credit risk, four industry sources familiar with the talks said. Washington and Caracas are finalising a $2 billion deal to sell up to 50 million barrels of crude that had been stuck on ships and in storage, with proceeds shielded in Treasury-controlled accounts, the report said. “Securing and marketing the initial barrels of Venezuelan crude oil was done at record speed,” a White House official told Reuters. (Reuters)
The trading houses have already started sounding out refiners in India and China for March delivery, several trade sources said. One offer was pitched at a discount of $8 to $8.50 a barrel to ICE Brent on a delivered basis, a source said. Separately, shipping data showed Vitol loaded a cargo of naphtha bound for Venezuela that is expected to arrive on Jan. 28; naphtha is used to thin Venezuela’s heavy crude so it can be moved and processed. (Reuters)
Oil-related stocks were mixed before the U.S. open. Exxon Mobil slid about 1% in premarket trading after President Donald Trump said he might block the company from investing in Venezuela. U.S. stock index futures fell roughly 0.7% more broadly, with traders also focused on a fresh fight over the Federal Reserve’s independence and a proposed cap on credit card interest rates. (Reuters)
Chevron, which has been the only U.S. major operating in Venezuela in recent years, last closed at $162.11 on Friday and was indicated around $163.30 in premarket trade, according to market data. (Yahoo Finance)
At a White House meeting on Friday, Exxon CEO Darren Woods called Venezuela “uninvestable” and said security guarantees and changes to the country’s hydrocarbons law were needed before Exxon could return. Chevron Vice Chairman Mark Nelson said the company was ready to increase liftings at its joint ventures with state firm PDVSA by 100% immediately, and lift its own production about 50% over the next 18 to 24 months. ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance told Trump banks would need to be involved to fund repairs to energy infrastructure, the report said. (Reuters)
Supply is not moving in one direction. OPEC pumped 28.40 million barrels per day in December, down 100,000 bpd from November, a survey found, with lower output from Iran and Venezuela offsetting an OPEC+ agreement that allowed some members to lift production. Iranian supply fell by 100,000 bpd and Venezuelan supply dropped by 70,000 bpd, the survey said. Energy Aspects forecast Venezuela’s crude and condensate output would slip to 950,000 bpd this month from 1.1 million bpd in December. (Reuters)
Goldman Sachs kept a downbeat 2026 view. The bank projected average prices of $56 a barrel for Brent and $52 for WTI this year, pointing to a 2.3 million bpd supply surplus and rising OECD inventories, with prices seen bottoming around $54/$50 in the fourth quarter. Goldman also flagged time-spreads — the price gap between near-dated and later-dated futures — as a hedging point in the curve. (Reuters)
But this tape has two-way risk. A renewed flare-up in Iran that threatens exports or shipping routes would force a quick repricing. Trump is due to be briefed on Tuesday on options for responding to the protests in Iran, a Wall Street Journal report cited by Reuters said. (Reuters)
Next up is U.S. macro and inventory data. The U.S. consumer price index for December is due Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. ET, a key input for rates bets and the dollar. Later Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute is scheduled to publish its weekly estimate of U.S. crude stockpiles. (Bureau of Labor Statistics)
The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report follows on Wednesday, with traders watching crude stocks, product inventories and implied demand for a read on whether the early-year bounce in prices has legs. (Eia)
