New York, Jan 13, 2026, 07:01 EST — Premarket
- Brent rose 1.7% to hover near $65, while WTI climbed 1.7% past $60
- Threat of U.S. tariffs linked to Iran trade fuels supply-risk concerns
- Traders eye U.S. stockpile data due Jan. 14 alongside early signs that Venezuelan exports are resuming
Oil prices surged again Tuesday, with Brent nearing $65 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbing back above $60 as traders factored in heightened risks from Iran. By 0934 GMT, Brent futures had risen $1.06, or 1.7%, to $64.93 a barrel; WTI gained $1.02, also 1.7%, reaching $60.52. “The oil market is building in some price protection against geopolitical drivers,” said John Evans, an analyst at PVM Oil Associates. Barclays estimated the Iran unrest “risk premium” — the added cost reflecting supply fears — at roughly $3-$4 a barrel. Reuters
Washington has turned up the heat on supply risks. President Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on exports to the U.S. from any country trading with Iran. He’s also considering military options following Tehran’s crackdown on nationwide protests. Already hit by U.S. sanctions, Iran sends much of its oil to China, threatening trade flows and boosting headline risks.
The market was already tilted bullish when oil jumped to seven-week highs on Monday amid concerns over a drop in Iran’s exports. Brent rose 53 cents to settle at $63.87 a barrel, while WTI gained 38 cents, closing at $59.50. Yet, hopes for increased Venezuelan supply capped some of the gains.
Iran seems to be piling up more crude on tankers, creating a risky cushion if sanctions or shipping limits tighten. Kpler put the total Iranian crude and condensate afloat at 166 million barrels for the week ending Jan. 11. Vortexa’s numbers were slightly higher, around 170 million barrels. “Iran is also seeking to send as many barrels as it can away from the Gulf,” said Kpler analyst Homayoun Falakshahi. Reuters
Trading houses have taken the lead over oil majors in restarting Venezuelan crude shipments. Vitol and Trafigura landed preliminary licenses to negotiate and export oil, Reuters reported. Trafigura CEO Richard Holtum confirmed the company plans to load its first cargo this week.
OPEC+ has held its policy steady despite political turmoil and sanctions jostling prices. In November, eight major members agreed to hold output steady from January through March and scheduled their next meeting for Feb. 1.
Supply concerns are spreading beyond the Middle East and Caribbean. Four Greek-managed tankers were struck by drones in the Black Sea en route to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal near Russia, which ships Kazakh oil, Reuters reported. A source familiar with the figures said Kazakhstan’s oil and condensate production dropped 35% from December’s average during Jan. 1-12, largely due to export bottlenecks at the terminal.
Rising oil prices boosted markets tied to crude income. Dubai’s main share index climbed 0.6% in early trading, while Saudi Aramco shares added 0.7%, Reuters reported.
There’s a risk this recent rally is just a quick squeeze that will fade fast. Goldman Sachs points to a projected 2.3 million barrels-per-day surplus in 2026 and growing global oil inventories, saying the market won’t rebalance without lower prices—unless OPEC steps in or supply disruptions worsen. The bank sticks with its 2026 average price targets of $56 a barrel for Brent and $52 for WTI. It also forecasts those benchmarks will hit lows of $54 and $50 in Q4, as inventories in OECD countries, mostly wealthy economies, pile up.
Coming next: U.S. inventory data, a usual flashpoint for oil markets on edge. The Energy Information Administration will release its latest Weekly Petroleum Status Report Wednesday, Jan. 14.
