New York, Jan 15, 2026, 07:49 ET — Premarket
Crude oil prices tumbled more than 3% on Thursday after U.S. President Donald Trump said killings in Iran’s crackdown on protests were stopping, easing fears of a supply shock. Brent was down $2.19 at $64.33 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate fell $2.06 to $59.96, while Saxo Bank’s Ole Hansen said “the immediate risk premium has softened but is unlikely to go away.” 1
The pullback lands after a jagged week in which traders have tried to price three different flashpoints at once — Venezuela, Iran and Black Sea shipping — without getting a clean read on whether the market is actually tightening. The amount of crude being transported in tankers has climbed to around 1.3 billion barrels, the highest since mid-2020, a sign supply is starting to outrun demand again. 2
U.S. inventory data did not help the bulls. Commercial crude inventories rose 3.4 million barrels to 422.4 million last week, while gasoline stocks jumped 9.0 million barrels, against expectations for a crude draw of about 1.7 million barrels. 3
In U.S. premarket trading, oil-linked funds tracked the slide: the United States Oil Fund was down 1.2% at $72.61, Invesco DB Oil Fund slipped 1.2%, and United States 12 Month Oil Fund fell 1.8%. Big producers Exxon Mobil and Chevron were up 2.9% and 2.1%, respectively, before the bell.
Supply headlines out of Venezuela remain a live wire. State oil company PDVSA has begun reversing production cuts made under a strict U.S. oil embargo as exports resume under U.S. supervision, with overall output falling to about 880,000 barrels per day last week from 1.16 million in late November, Reuters reported. 4
Shipping risk is still in the background. Drones hit two oil tankers in the Black Sea on Tuesday, including one chartered by Chevron, as they sailed toward a terminal that loads most of Kazakhstan’s crude exports; Chevron said “all crew are safe” and the vessel was proceeding to a safe port. 5
Iran remains the main swing factor, even after Trump’s comments cooled the market. The United States is withdrawing some personnel from bases in the Middle East as a precaution, a U.S. official said, after a senior Iranian official warned neighbours that U.S. bases would be hit if Washington strikes, and the U.N. Security Council is due to meet on Iran later on Thursday. 6
But this can still flip the other way. Iran sits on a key shipping choke point — nearly 20% of global oil and gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz — and any sign of escalation can pull the risk premium straight back into crude prices. 7
For now, it is messy: geopolitics can squeeze barrels, while inventories and fuel builds hint at slack demand. That tension is why crude keeps snapping around inside a range instead of trending cleanly.
OPEC, for its part, said demand would grow by 1.34 million barrels per day in 2027 and flagged a near-balance between supply and demand in 2026, while the International Energy Agency’s most recent numbers imply a 3.84 million bpd surplus this year. The next big marker for oil traders is the IEA’s update on Jan. 21. 8
