MOLINE, Illinois, April 25, 2026, 10:02 CDT
Deere & Company shares dropped 4.95% to $562.64 on Friday, shaving $29.31 off the stock’s value and casting a shadow over the John Deere 2026 rebound narrative, with fiscal second-quarter earnings due in under a month. Roughly 1.1 million shares changed hands, according to the company’s investor site.
This comes into sharper focus with Deere approaching its May 21 earnings update—investors are already juggling questions about sluggish demand for big farm equipment and management’s suggestion that the cycle’s worst point could be close. Analysts are calling for quarterly EPS at $5.81, which would mark a 12.5% drop from the previous year, according to Barchart on Friday.
Looking ahead to fiscal 2026, Wall Street’s consensus sits at $18.01 in Deere EPS, about 2.7% lower than the previous year. They’re penciling in a recovery to $23.01 for fiscal 2027. That doesn’t leave much of a buffer: Deere shares still reflect hopes for steady farm-equipment demand holding up until profits bounce back.
Deere trailed its main rivals on Friday. According to MarketWatch, Caterpillar slipped 0.53%, CNH Industrial was down 2.38%, and Deere took the biggest hit, falling 4.95%. On the broader front, Barchart data had the S&P 500 up 0.80%, while the Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund slid 0.92%.
Deere’s shares slid even after the company lifted its fiscal 2026 net income outlook back in February to between $4.5 billion and $5.0 billion. For the first quarter, Deere posted net income of $656 million, or $2.42 per share. Sales and revenue globally climbed 13%, coming in at $9.61 billion. At the time, CEO John May called 2026 “the bottom of the current cycle.” John Deere
The low point isn’t exactly clear-cut. Deere flagged ongoing pressure in large ag, though construction equipment and smaller ag markets are picking up. Back in February, Reuters noted Deere cut factory production in response to softer demand, while Oppenheimer’s Kristen Owen pointed out that depleted inventories could set the stage for gains as supplies return to normal.
The risk hasn’t gone away. Deere is bracing for an estimated $1.2 billion pre-tax tariff impact in fiscal 2026, according to Reuters. This year, the USDA projects U.S. net farm income at $153.4 billion, down 0.7%. With crop prices weaker and input costs stubbornly high, farmers may hold off on buying big-ticket equipment like tractors or combines.
Wall Street’s sticking with the stock for now. According to MarketBeat on Saturday, 16 analysts still say Buy on Deere, nine call it Hold, and the average price target sits at $655.45. DA Davidson, Wolfe Research, and Bank of America have all bumped up their targets lately, the same report noted.
Legal uncertainty hangs over as well. Deere announced on April 6 that it had settled multidistrict “right to repair” litigation—no admission of wrongdoing, according to the company. Deere has committed to continue granting access to tools, manuals, and diagnostic software. The deal is still subject to court approval. John Deere
Denver Caldwell, who heads aftermarket and customer support at Deere, said the company is still committed to providing customers and service shops with “access to repair resources.” Repair costs and software access have turned into bigger headaches for farmers, Caldwell said, as equipment increasingly relies on sensors, digital tools, and diagnostics tied to dealers. John Deere
Deere’s current position leaves little room. If May’s numbers come in strong, that backs up management’s stance on being at the cycle’s trough. But a disappointing report, and doubts resurface about whether construction and smaller ag can really make up for sluggish big-farm demand, tariffs, and buyers still wary of shelling out for high-priced new machines.
