Dell Technologies (DELL) Stock Forecast for 2026: AI Server Boom, Dividend Hike and PC Price Rises

Published: December 6, 2025 – All data as of market close on December 5, 2025, unless otherwise stated. This article is informational and not investment advice.

DELL stock today: price, size and momentum

Dell Technologies Inc. (NYSE: DELL) closed on Friday at about $138.9 per share, trading between roughly $136.1 and $139.2 during the session. Over the past 52 weeks, the stock has swung between $66.25 and $168.08, putting today’s price in the middle of that range. Dell’s market capitalization now sits around $93 billion. ^[1]

Total return numbers underline how far the stock has come. Dell’s year‑to‑date total return is about 22.7%, with a 13.1% gain over the past 12 months, and an extraordinary ~325% total return over five years. Over ten years, total return exceeds 1,150%, vastly outpacing most hardware peers. ^[2]

On the technical side, an Investor’s Business Daily note this week highlighted that Dell’s Relative Strength (RS) Rating has climbed to 83, putting it among the stronger performers in its industry group, though not in a textbook “breakout” buy zone yet. ^[3]

For Google News and Discover readers, the short version is: DELL is no longer a sleepy PC name. It’s a mid‑mega‑cap AI infrastructure play with strong multi‑year returns and active institutional attention.

Q3 FY 2026: AI servers drive record revenue and earnings beat

Dell’s latest results – Q3 of fiscal 2026 (quarter ended late October) – are the foundation for most of the current optimism around the stock.

According to analyst breakdowns of the company’s November earnings release, Dell reported: ^[4]

Revenue: ~$27.0 billion, up 11% year‑on‑year
Non‑GAAP diluted EPS:$2.59, up 17% YoY
Operating performance: non‑GAAP operating income of about $2.5 billion, a margin around 9.3%

Segment performance shows how the business mix is shifting:

Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG) – servers, networking and storage
- Revenue: $14.1 billion, +24% YoY
- Servers & networking: $10.1 billion, +37% YoY
- Storage: roughly $4.0 billion, –1% YoY ^[5]
Client Solutions Group (CSG) – PCs and related client devices
- Revenue: $12.5 billion, about +3% YoY
- Commercial PCs: $10.6 billion, +5% YoY
- Consumer PCs: $1.9 billion, –7% YoY ^[6]

While revenue was just a touch below some Wall Street estimates, the profitability beat and guidance raise mattered more for the stock. Analysts and commentators focused heavily on the AI server story rather than the slight top‑line miss. ^[7]

The AI infrastructure story: orders, backlog and guidance

The central reason DELL stock keeps appearing in AI‑themed watchlists is simple: AI servers and infrastructure are exploding.

From Dell’s Q3 FY26 commentary and follow‑up analysis:

The company booked about $12.3 billion in AI server orders in the quarter.
AI server shipments were roughly $5.6 billion, bringing year‑to‑date shipments to around $15.6 billion. ^[8]
AI server backlog ended the quarter near $18.4 billion, giving Dell unusually strong revenue visibility into 2026 and beyond. ^[9]

These AI systems are going to a mix of “neocloud” providers, sovereign AI projects and large enterprises, including marquee clients such as the U.S. Department of Energy, Abu Dhabi’s G42, Elon Musk’s xAI and CoreWeave, according to Reuters and other coverage. ^[10]

Based on this demand, Dell has significantly upgraded its guidance:

For fiscal 2026, management now expects revenue of roughly $111–112 billion, up from prior guidance of $105–109 billion – implying around 17% annual growth. ^[11]
The company has raised its AI server shipment revenue target to about $25 billion for FY26, up from earlier expectations near $20 billion. ^[12]
Fourth‑quarter revenue guidance now sits at $31–32 billion, notably above the roughly $27.6 billion analysts had modeled prior to the report. ^[13]

Longer‑term, Dell has also reset its multi‑year growth algorithm. Investor presentations and recent press coverage indicate: ^[14]

Target annual revenue growth of 7–9% through fiscal 2030 (nearly double prior 3–4% guidance).
Target adjusted EPS growth of 15% or more per year over the same period.
Expectation of reaching a $20 billion AI server shipment run‑rate by 2026, supported by continued GPU‑rich infrastructure demand.

This is a very different story from “old Dell” PC cycles. The investment case now hinges on whether Dell can scale AI infrastructure profitably and consistently while managing a tight supply chain for high‑end GPUs and rising memory costs.

Dividend, capital returns and PC price hikes

Dividend and shareholder returns

For income‑oriented investors, Dell has also become more interesting in 2025.

On December 4, 2025, Dell’s board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.525 per share, payable on January 30, 2026 to shareholders of record on January 20. That works out to $2.10 per share annually, following an 18% dividend increase approved earlier this year. ^[15]

At the current share price around $139, this implies a forward dividend yield of roughly 1.5%, with sources such as Digrin and StreetInsider placing the forward yield in the 1.5–1.6% range. ^[16]

The payout ratio is still modest: recent coverage suggests sub‑20% of current earnings and under ~26% of next year’s forecast earnings, implying ample room for reinvestment and future dividend growth. ^[17]

Coupled with multi‑year guidance that includes a commitment to raise the dividend at least 10% annually through 2030, Dell is framing itself as a growth‑plus‑income story rather than a pure growth stock. ^[18]

PC price increases: defense against rising memory costs

One of the most recent Dell headlines is not about AI at all – it’s about PCs.

Industry reports citing TrendForce say Dell plans to raise PC prices by about 15–20% in the coming weeks as DRAM and other memory costs surge due to AI‑driven demand for high‑capacity chips. ^[19]

Rising component prices have been a key reason gross margins have been under pressure in infrastructure segments. Passing some of those costs to PC customers could:

Support margins in the Client Solutions Group, especially on commercial PCs.
Risk slowing unit demand, particularly on the consumer side, where Dell’s revenue is already declining mid‑single digits year‑on‑year. ^[20]

For investors, the PC price hikes are a reminder that Dell is navigating inflation in the entire hardware stack, not just the AI data‑center side.

Wall Street view: consensus forecasts and price targets for DELL stock

Analyst ratings

Across major data providers, Dell enjoys a clearly positive – though not unanimous – Wall Street stance:

MarketBeat aggregates 25 analyst opinions and shows:
- 16 Buy, 8 Hold, 1 Sell,
- A “Moderate Buy” consensus rating, and
- An average 12‑month price target of about $162.84, implying roughly 17% upside from current levels. ^[21]
StockAnalysis tracks 15 covering analysts and also shows a consensus “Buy” rating, with:
- Average price target ~ $164.6
- High target $200, low target $113 ^[22]

Public.com and other retail‑oriented platforms echo this picture of a broadly bullish, but valuation‑sensitive, analyst community, with average targets clustering in the $163–165 range. ^[23]

Earnings and revenue forecasts

Looking ahead, the sell‑side consensus expects Dell’s AI strategy to show up clearly in the financials:

FY 2026 (current fiscal year):
- Revenue around $112.9 billion, up from $95.6 billion in the prior year – roughly 18% growth.
- EPS (often non‑GAAP) around $10.06, up from $6.38 – nearly 58% growth.
FY 2027:
- Revenue forecast near $125.3 billion, ~11% growth on top of FY26.
- EPS around $11.66, up ~16% from FY26. ^[24]

At today’s price, that implies:

A forward FY26 P/E of ~14x, and
A FY27 P/E of ~12x, based on the above EPS forecasts – roughly in line with StockAnalysis’s published forward P/E range in the low‑teens. ^[25]

Independent fair‑value models

Equity research platforms that build discounted‑cash‑flow style narratives tend to land in a similar ballpark:

One widely cited narrative model pegs Dell’s fair value around $162–163 per share, roughly 17% above the current price, based on expectations of revenue growing to ~$122 billion and earnings to $7.4 billion by 2028 (using their own adjustments). ^[26]

Of course, these models are highly sensitive to assumptions about AI server growth, margin trends and capital intensity.

Other headlines shaping the Dell stock narrative

Michael & Susan Dell’s $6.25 billion pledge

Beyond fundamentals, Dell has been in the political and philanthropy spotlight this week.

On December 2, 2025, Michael and Susan Dell announced a $6.25 billion pledge to deposit $250 into the investment accounts of around 25 million U.S. children, as part of the federal “Invest America” or “Trump accounts” program. ^[27]

The accounts are designed to hold index‑fund investments until children turn 18, when funds can be used for education, a first home or starting a business. Coverage noted that Dell Technologies’ shares rose more than 3% around the announcement, though the move was driven by a mix of sentiment, broader market conditions and existing AI optimism, not just the donation itself. ^[28]

For shareholders, the pledge doesn’t directly change cash flows – the donation comes from the Dell family’s wealth, not from Dell Technologies’ balance sheet – but it reinforces the founder‑led narrative and ESG‑adjacent profile that some institutional investors consider.

Dell’s evolution from PC maker to AI infrastructure leader

Tech‑industry coverage has increasingly described Dell as a full‑stack infrastructure and multi‑cloud player, not merely a PC brand. IT trade press notes that Dell generated about $95.6 billion in annual revenue in its last completed fiscal year, with a heavy strategic push into AI‑ready servers, storage and its APEX “as‑a‑service” offerings. ^[29]

Recent pieces emphasize:

The importance of the Dell AI Factory initiatives, built in partnership with Nvidia and others. ^[30]
Ongoing sustainability and circular‑design initiatives, which may appeal to ESG‑focused investors but are not yet central to the valuation debate. ^[31]

All of this context feeds into why DELL keeps surfacing in AI, cloud and infrastructure clusters across Google News and Discover.

Key risks investors are watching

Even with a bullish consensus and AI tailwinds, Dell is not a one‑way bet. Recent research and commentary repeatedly call out several risk factors:

Margin pressure from AI hardware mix
- AI servers are expensive to build and rely on high‑cost GPUs and memory. Several analyses point to lower gross margins in infrastructure in the near term, even as revenue surges. ^[32]
Rising memory and component costs
- Dell itself and industry trackers highlight soaring DRAM and NAND prices, which are pushing the company to raise PC prices by up to 15–20% and manage pricing carefully in servers. If customers push back, margins or volumes (or both) could suffer. ^[33]
Cyclical PC demand
- While commercial PC demand is stabilizing, consumer PCs remain under pressure, with consumer revenue down around 7% YoY in the latest quarter. A weaker macro backdrop or delayed Windows 10 refresh cycles could weigh on CSG results. ^[34]
Intense competition in AI infrastructure
- Dell faces rivals like HPE, Lenovo, Super Micro Computer and direct cloud providers. Analysts warn that a race to capture AI workloads could trigger pricing pressure and oversupply once the first wave of demand normalizes. ^[35]
Execution and supply‑chain complexity
- Managing a multi‑billion‑dollar AI backlog, GPU allocations, rack‑scale deployments and global logistics is operationally demanding. Any missteps could impact revenue recognition or profitability, especially with Dell’s ambitious growth and dividend targets. ^[36]
Macro and policy risk
- Trade restrictions, export controls on advanced chips and geopolitical tensions could affect Dell’s AI hardware supply chain and its ability to serve certain customers or regions. This was flagged earlier in the year in connection with AI server export risks. ^[37]

Bottom line: what to watch next for DELL stock

Putting it all together, here’s how the DELL story looks as of December 6, 2025:

Fundamentals: Record Q3 revenue, double‑digit earnings growth and a rapidly expanding AI server franchise underpin the current share price.
Balance of growth and income: An elevated but still moderate dividend (about 1.5% yield), an 18% hike this year and a stated goal of 10% annual dividend growth through 2030 make Dell stand out among hardware peers. ^[38]
Valuation: With the stock trading around 14x FY26 and 12x FY27 earnings, consensus targets in the low‑$160s imply mid‑teens upside if Dell hits its AI‑driven growth plan. ^[39]
Sentiment: Technical indicators like an RS Rating of 83 and strong multi‑year total returns show the market already respects Dell’s transformation – but also means investor expectations are higher than in the pre‑AI era. ^[40]

Key upcoming catalysts for Google News and Discover readers to watch:

The next quarterly earnings report and any update to AI shipment and backlog metrics.
Details on how PC price hikes affect volumes and margins.
Progress toward the $20–25 billion AI server revenue run‑rate and the 7–9% long‑term revenue growth framework.
Any changes to analyst price targets or ratings, especially from major Wall Street firms that have turned increasingly bullish in recent months. ^[41]

As always, whether DELL fits a portfolio depends on your risk tolerance, time horizon and diversification. The stock now sits at the intersection of AI infrastructure, enterprise hardware and shareholder yield – a powerful combination if Dell executes, but one that comes with the usual technology‑cycle and macro risks.

This article is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Consider speaking with a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.