DFI Retail Group Holdings (SGX:D01) Stock in Focus: Dividend Reset, Turnaround Momentum and 2026 Forecasts as of 8 December 2025

DFI Retail Group Holdings Limited (formerly Dairy Farm International) has quietly become one of the most talked‑about consumer stocks on the Singapore Exchange. A special dividend, a sharply higher payout policy and a new three‑year growth roadmap have helped the share price more than double over the past year, putting the pan‑Asian retailer firmly back on investors’ radars. ^[1]

This article looks at where the stock stands on 8 December 2025, what has driven the turnaround so far, and how analysts are valuing DFI Retail Group (ticker: D01 on SGX, DFILF over‑the‑counter in the US). It is intended as information, not investment advice.

DFI Retail Group share price snapshot (8 December 2025)

As of 12:28 Singapore time on 8 December 2025, DFI Retail Group Holdings is trading at US$3.99 on SGX, down 2.7% on the day after hitting fresh 52‑week highs late last week. ^[2]

Key trading metrics:

Previous close (5 December 2025): US$4.10
Intraday range on 5 December: US$4.00–4.22, setting a new 52‑week high at US$4.22 ^[3]
52‑week range: US$2.02–4.22
1‑year price performance: +61.4% (price only) ^[4]
1‑year total shareholder return: about +104%, according to Simply Wall St, reflecting both price gains and dividends. ^[5]
Market capitalisation: roughly US$7.2 billion, based on 1.35 billion shares outstanding. ^[6]

The stock’s technical indicators show how aggressive the recent move has been: StockAnalysis reports a 14‑day Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 80, a level typically associated with “overbought” conditions. ^[7]

On the US over‑the‑counter market, the company trades via the DFILF ticker. A Fintel‑based note published on Nasdaq on 6 December highlights that the average one‑year price target for DFILF has been raised to US$4.01, implying more than 100% upside from the last quoted OTC price of US$1.88. ^[8]

From Dairy Farm to multi‑format Asian retailer: what DFI does

DFI Retail Group is one of Asia’s largest and oldest consumer groups, with roots dating back to 1886. It is part of the Jardine Matheson group and remains majority‑owned by Jardine Strategic, which controls around 78% of the company. ^[9]

Today, DFI operates over 7,400 outlets across 12 markets in Asia, including Hong Kong, mainland China, Macau, Taiwan, Singapore, Cambodia, Malaysia, Indonesia and Brunei. ^[10]

The business is organised into five main divisions:

Health & Beauty – Mannings in Greater China and Guardian in Southeast Asia
Convenience – 7‑Eleven in Hong Kong, Macau, Guangdong and Singapore
Food – supermarket and grocery chains such as Wellcome, Market Place, Cold Storage, CS Fresh, Giant and related banners in various markets
Home Furnishings – IKEA franchisee in Hong Kong, Taiwan and Indonesia
Restaurants – a 50% stake in Maxim’s, the Hong Kong‑based restaurant and catering group, which operates brands including Starbucks (HK franchisee), Genki Sushi, and others. ^[11]

DFI has been reshaping this portfolio in recent years, exiting lower‑return food retail operations in markets such as Malaysia and Indonesia’s Hero supermarkets, while doubling down on higher‑margin health & beauty, convenience and home furnishings and on its digital ecosystem. ^[12]

Turnaround gains momentum: 2024 and 2025 results so far

2024: underlying profit recovers despite headline loss

DFI’s turnaround story starts with its 2024 preliminary results, released in March 2025. The company reported:

Revenue of US$8.87 billion, down about 3% year‑on‑year
Underlying profit attributable to shareholders of roughly US$201 million, up 30% from 2023
Underlying earnings per share (EPS) of 14.91 US cents
Total 2024 dividends of 10.5 US cents per share, up from 8.0 cents in 2023. ^[13]

However, after non‑trading items such as impairments, the statutory bottom line was a loss of around US$245 million, which explains why trailing net income remains negative and the traditional price‑to‑earnings (P/E) ratio is not particularly meaningful. ^[14]

First half of 2025: profits and cash flow accelerate

The half‑year results to 30 June 2025 showed that the recovery is continuing and broadening: ^[15]

Underlying profit attributable to shareholders rose 39% year‑on‑year to US$105 million.
Underlying profit from subsidiaries grew 3% to US$75 million, with the balance coming from associates such as Maxim’s and Robinsons Retail.
Free cash flow reached US$89 million (versus US$61 million in 1H 2024).
The balance sheet swung from US$468 million net debt at end‑2024 to US$442 million net cash by mid‑2025.

By segment:

Health & Beauty delivered 4% like‑for‑like (LFL) sales growth and 8% profit growth, as Mannings and Guardian gained traction in wellness categories such as supplements and derma skincare. ^[16]
Food returned to growth in the second quarter and increased profit by 14% on a like‑for‑like basis, helped by a renewed value positioning in Hong Kong and partnerships such as Wellcome’s tie‑up with Chinese online grocery group Dingdong. ^[17]
Convenience saw LFL sales fall 4%, mostly due to higher tobacco taxes in Hong Kong; profit declined 18% year‑on‑year, although management notes that excluding a one‑off windfall in 2024, underlying profit actually rose about 9%. ^[18]
Home Furnishings (IKEA) struggled with intense competition but achieved a recovery in underlying profit thanks to cost controls and an omnichannel push. ^[19]

Digital initiatives are also scaling quickly: e‑commerce penetration reached around 5% of group sales, daily online order volume surged 85% year‑on‑year to more than 96,000 orders, and DFI’s retail media business, DFIQ, ramped from 12 campaigns in first‑half 2024 to more than 160 in first‑half 2025. ^[20]

Third quarter of 2025: guidance raised, net cash built

The Interim Management Statement for Q3 2025, published on 30 October, painted a picture of further improvement: ^[21]

Underlying subsidiary sales excluding cigarettes rose 3% year‑on‑year and 2% on a like‑for‑like basis.
Operating profit increased 23% versus the same quarter in 2024.
Overall underlying profit jumped 48% year‑on‑year, helped by lower financing costs and higher contributions from associates, following the divestment of its stake in Chinese grocer Yonghui and the sale of Robinsons Retail.
The balance sheet strengthened further to US$648 million net cash by 30 September 2025.

On the back of this performance, management revised full‑year 2025 guidance for underlying profit attributable to shareholders to US$250–270 million, up from a previous US$230–270 million range, and maintained organic revenue growth guidance at 0.5–1%. ^[22]

Using the mid‑point of that profit guidance and the current share count of about 1.35 billion shares, underlying EPS for 2025 would be roughly 19 US cents, versus 14.9 cents in 2024 – a gain of about 28%. At a share price around US$4.00, that implies a forward underlying P/E ratio near 21x, compared with roughly 27x based on 2024 underlying earnings. ^[23]

(These are indicative calculations and not official guidance.)

New three‑year growth and dividend roadmap to 2028

The big catalyst for the stock in December has been DFI’s 2025 investor day, held on 3 December, where management presented a detailed three‑year plan for “sustained profitable growth and returns” and simultaneously announced a more generous dividend policy. ^[24]

According to the company’s investor‑day release, DFI now targets:

Underlying profit CAGR of 11–15% from 2025 to 2028, aiming for US$310–350 million of underlying profit by 2028 (based on the mid‑point of 2025 guidance, excluding discontinued operations). ^[25]
Organic revenue growth of 2–3% per year, driven by higher store sales density, market‑share gains and better operational efficiency. ^[26]
Online sales penetration of 7–10% by 2028, up from about 5% currently. ^[27]
Return on capital employed (ROCE) of at least 15% by 2028, versus a mid‑term goal “above 10%” highlighted earlier in 2025. ^[28]

To get there, the group is focusing on five strategic levers: increasing sales per store, expanding health & beauty and convenience store networks through franchise‑light models, accelerating own‑brand innovation, monetising its data and retail media platform, and preserving tight capital discipline. ^[29]

These plans have resonated with the market. Simply Wall St notes that DFI’s share price jumped to US$4.10 after the investor‑day update, delivering a 19% gain in just one week and more than doubling total shareholder returns over 12 months. ^[30] Commentators in The Business Times describe DFI as “soaring” on plans to boost profitability and raise its dividend payout ratio, in stark contrast to the more volatile performance of new‑economy IPOs on the local market. ^[31]

Dividend story: special payout and a higher ongoing ratio

Income investors have another reason to watch DFI: dividends.

2024 and 2025 payouts

For 2024, DFI paid 10.5 US cents per share in ordinary dividends, up from 8.0 cents the year before, despite the statutory loss. ^[32]
For 2025, alongside its half‑year results the board declared:
- An interim dividend of 3.50 US cents per share, and
- A special dividend of 44.30 US cents per share, the first special payout in 18 years, together amounting to roughly US$647 million. ^[33]

Both the interim and the special dividends are scheduled to be paid on 15 October 2025 to shareholders on the register as of 22 August. ^[34]

New 70% payout policy

At the investor day, DFI went further by raising its long‑term dividend payout ratio to 70% of underlying earnings, up from the previous 60% guidance. The new policy takes effect from the final dividend of 2025, meaning that ordinary dividends from 2026 onward should, in principle, reflect this higher payout level if earnings are delivered. ^[35]

For shareholders, this means that if management achieves its mid‑point 2025 underlying profit guidance and sticks to the 70% payout ratio, DFI could potentially distribute around US$175 million–190 million per year in ordinary dividends, not counting any further special payouts. That would still leave room for reinvestment, given the group’s large net cash position. ^[36]

How analysts currently value DFI Retail Group (D01, DFILF)

The sharp rally has brought DFI’s share price close to, or slightly above, some published 12‑month price targets, although estimates vary significantly depending on the model and currency used.

Consensus targets around US$4–4.5

Recent data points include:

Simply Wall St (6 December 2025):
- Consensus analyst price target of US$3.71 per share, with a range from US$2.57 (bearish) to US$4.30 (bullish).
- Its “consensus narrative” suggests a fair value of about US$3.86, implying the stock is roughly 6% overvalued at US$4.10. ^[37]
TipRanks:
- Average 12‑month target of US$4.50, based on two analysts, implying around 10% upside from a last price of US$4.10. ^[38]
TradingView:
- Consensus price target of US$4.21, with forecasts ranging from US$3.20 to US$4.50. ^[39]
Fintel (SGX listing D01):
- Average one‑year price target of US$4.29, with a range of US$3.23–4.72. ^[40]
Fintel via Nasdaq (OTC DFILF):
- Average price target of US$4.01, up 32.5% from the previous US$3.02 estimate, representing more than 100% theoretical upside to the last reported OTC price of US$1.88. ^[41]

In short, most published targets cluster around US$4–4.5, broadly in line with or modestly above the current SGX price. The main outlier is Simply Wall St’s discounted cash flow model, which suggests a theoretical fair value above US$14 – a level that assumes very optimistic long‑term cash‑flow growth and is far from consensus expectations. ^[42]

Valuation multiples

On trailing financials, StockAnalysis shows: ^[43]

Revenue (trailing twelve months): about US$11.3 billion
Net income (TTM): around ‑US$480 million, reflecting non‑trading charges
Forward P/E: approximately 21x, based on analyst forecasts
Dividend (trailing ordinary dividend): about US$0.105–0.14 per share, implying a low‑ to mid‑single‑digit regular yield at current prices (before the one‑off special dividend is considered).

Given the disconnect between statutory losses and improving underlying profits, most analysts appear to value DFI on normalised or underlying earnings rather than reported net income.

Opportunities and risks investors are watching

Bullish arguments

Supporters of the stock typically highlight several themes:

Shift to value and essentials
Across Asia, consumers have become more price‑sensitive. DFI has been leaning into this trend by increasing the share of its “value assortment” in stores, pushing own‑brand products and running targeted promotions. This has driven like‑for‑like volume recovery without sacrificing gross margin in key segments. ^[44]
Higher‑margin mix and digital monetisation
Health & beauty and ready‑to‑eat convenience products carry better margins than traditional groceries. Meanwhile, DFI’s retail media arm, DFIQ, is starting to monetise its data, more than quadrupling the number of campaigns year‑on‑year and adding a new revenue stream with high incremental margins. ^[45]
Capital recycling and net cash balance sheet
The divestments of Yonghui and Robinsons Retail, as well as planned sales of the Singapore food business, are freeing up capital to reinvest in higher‑return subsidiaries. As of Q3 2025, DFI sits on net cash of roughly US$648 million, providing flexibility for further capital returns or acquisitions. ^[46]
Clear medium‑term targets and higher dividends
Management has put hard numbers on its 3‑year plan and backed it with a 70% payout policy and a large special dividend – signalling confidence in cash generation and aligning the story with investors who prefer predictable income from large consumer names. ^[47]

Key risks and bear arguments

On the other hand, sceptics point to several concerns:

Structural pressure on convenience from tobacco
DFI’s convenience division has been hit by higher cigarette taxes in Hong Kong, which have sharply reduced volumes of a historically important category. While management expects higher‑margin non‑cigarette products to offset this over time, there is execution risk if consumer behaviour shifts more slowly than planned. ^[48]
Intense competition and online price wars
Supermarket and personal‑care markets across Asia are highly competitive, with both traditional rivals and fast‑growing e‑commerce platforms fighting for share. Simply Wall St notes that persistent online price competition could erode margins and undermine the upbeat profit narrative if DFI cannot differentiate its value proposition. ^[49]
Macro and consumer‑confidence risk
DFI operates in markets that are sensitive to tourism flows, consumer sentiment and policy moves such as voucher programmes or tax changes. The group’s own guidance for 2025 revenue growth has been nudged down to 0.5–1%, reflecting softer demand and the impact of reduced cigarette sales. ^[50]
Gap between underlying and statutory earnings
While underlying profit is rising, the large statutory loss in 2024 underlines that impairments, restructuring and divestment‑related charges can materially affect reported net income and book value. Investors need to be comfortable with the company’s adjustments and with the possibility of further write‑downs as the portfolio is reshaped. ^[51]

Outlook: what the current valuation seems to be pricing in

At just under US$4.00 per share, DFI Retail Group’s SGX‑listed stock now trades: ^[52]

Near the upper end of its 12‑month trading range,
On a forward underlying P/E in the low‑20s, assuming management delivers on its 2025 profit guidance, and
Around the middle to upper end of most analyst price target ranges of roughly US$4.0–4.5. ^[53]

In practical terms, the market appears to be pricing in a successful execution of DFI’s early‑stage turnaround – including margin expansion, digital growth and capital recycling – but not yet the full upside implied by the most optimistic discounted cash‑flow models or by the higher OTC price target multiples. ^[54]

For existing shareholders, the combination of a stronger balance sheet, a higher ongoing payout ratio and management’s explicit 11–15% profit growth target presents a clearly articulated income‑and‑growth thesis. For prospective investors, the question is whether the operational improvements and structural tailwinds in Asian consumer spending will be enough to justify today’s valuation – especially after a year in which the stock has already delivered triple‑digit total returns. ^[55]