- Indians splurged about ₹1 lakh crore during Dhanteras 2025, with gold and silver sales alone at ₹60,000 crore – up 25% from last year, despite prices hitting all-time highs [1].
- Gold soared ~63% year-on-year to a record ~₹1.34 lakh per 10g, then dipped by ~₹2,000 just before Dhanteras [2]. This slight price correction spurred a buying frenzy, as shoppers rushed to grab coins and bars at the lower rate [3].
- Silver outshone gold: the white metal jumped ~70% vs last Dhanteras [4], and silver coin sales surged ~35–40% as value-focused buyers flocked to “poor man’s gold” for auspicious investments [5].
- High prices didn’t deter buyers – they adapted. Retailers report many customers shifted from heavy jewelry to gold coins, bars and lightweight ornaments for investment and weddings [6] [7]. Tanishq’s CEO even warned of a gold coin shortage amid “a run on gold,” noting fence-sitters have returned now that they expect prices to stay high [8] [9].
- Experts remain bullish on bullion: Some analysts predict gold nearing $4,500–$5,000/oz in coming months [10], and HSBC now projects $5,000 by 2024 [11]. Metals Focus sees “no obvious trigger to end the rally” absent a major shift [12] – though a resolution of geopolitical crises could cap prices [13].
Record Festive Spending Despite Sky-High Gold Prices
Dhanteras 2025 – the traditional gold-buying festival – has shattered spending records in India. Consumers spent an estimated ₹1 trillion (₹1 lakh crore) over the Dhanteras period, driven largely by precious metals demand [14]. According to the Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT), gold and silver purchases alone accounted for about ₹60,000 crore, marking a 25% jump in value from last year’s festival [15]. This is remarkable given how much gold prices have climbed: gold was around ₹1,30,000–₹1,34,000 per 10 grams in the run-up to Dhanteras – roughly 60–63% higher than last Dhanteras [16] [17]. In fact, just a day before the festival, gold hit an all-time high of ₹1,34,800 (24k, 99.9% purity) in Delhi [18].
However, a modest pullback in prices right on Dhanteras provided an extra catalyst for shoppers. On Saturday (Dhanteras day), gold dipped by approximately ₹2,000 from its peak – to around ₹1,32,400 per 10g in Delhi after profit-booking set in [19]. Mumbai saw a similar correction from ₹1,30,000 down to about ₹1,28,000 per 10g [20]. This slight reprieve was enough to unleash pent-up demand. “The festive fervour of Dhanteras upheld its sheen with a robust turnaround by consumers to invest in the yellow metal,” observed Colin Shah, Managing Director of Kama Jewelry, noting a “tremendous response” despite sky-high prices [21]. Industry bodies reported “unprecedented rush” in jewelry markets in the 48 hours around Dhanteras [22]. Shoppers big and small flocked to bullion dealers and jewellers once they saw prices ease off record levels – a classic buy-the-dip frenzy on this auspicious gold-buying occasion [23].
Jewellers say sales volume (by weight) was actually down compared to last year, given the high rates, but sales value surged. The All India Gem & Jewellery Domestic Council estimates gold volumes fell ~10–15% from last Dhanteras, yet total takings jumped sharply in rupee terms [24]. “Dhanteras 2025 has seen a 10–15% dip in overall volume… but value is up sharply,” said Rajesh Rokde, Chairman of GJC, adding they expect festive gold sales to cross ₹50,000 crore this season [25]. In Delhi’s bullion hubs alone, sales topped ₹10,000 crore on Dhanteras, according to CAIT’s jewelry wing head Pankaj Arora, who confirmed “the past two days have seen an unprecedented rush” of buyers [26]. Clearly, Indians’ love for gold remains intact – even when prices double, they find ways to keep the festive spirit (and spending) alive.
Silver Shines as “Smart” Alternative
If gold’s price tag was too steep for some buyers, silver emerged as the star of Dhanteras 2025. Often called the “poor man’s gold,” silver offered a lower-cost way to partake in the auspicious buying. And many did just that: silver prices have also skyrocketed – around ₹1,80,000 per kilo this Dhanteras, up from ~₹98,000 last year (an astonishing 80% jump) [27] [28]. Silver hit a 45-year high internationally (~$54.5/oz) in mid-October [29], before easing slightly. In India, after touching ₹1.77 lakh/kg on Friday, silver corrected by ₹7,000 to about ₹1,70,000/kg on Dhanteras [30] – a drop parallel to gold’s profit-taking. But again, the small dip only ignited more buying. CAIT reported robust silver demand on Dhanteras, and industry estimates say silver coin sales jumped ~35–40% compared to last year [31] [32].
“Despite high prices, sentiment remains upbeat, driven by strategic purchases. Silver coins and puja items surged 40% year-on-year, marking silver’s rise as a smart, value-focused investment,” noted Rajesh Rokde of GJC, based on surveys of jewellers across India [33]. In many cities, silver actually outpaced gold in sales growth, as price-sensitive buyers loaded up on coins, bars and small idols made of silver. Avinash Gupta, GJC’s Vice Chairman, observed that demand for silver was especially strong in Tier 2 and Tier 3 towns, where people opted for budget-friendly investments and traditional gifting of silver items [34]. By volume, some jewelers saw far more silver coins leave the shelves than gold coins. Overall, trade groups estimate silver sales (by value) rose about 40% this Dhanteras – a remarkable feat given how much the price of silver had already risen over the year [35].
Beyond retail buyers, the industrial side of silver also lends support to its rally. Global silver demand has been bolstered by heavy use in solar panels, electric vehicles and electronics, which keeps fundamentals firm even as investors chase the metal [36]. This dual demand – for investment and industry – helped silver notch a 70.5% year-on-year price gain from last Dhanteras [37]. While gold commanded the headlines, silver quietly delivered eye-popping returns and satisfied the auspicious buying impulse of those priced out of gold. The consensus among experts is that silver’s prospects remain bright alongside gold’s, as long as the precious metals uptrend continues.
Buyers Shift to Coins, Bars and Light Jewelry
Rather than being discouraged by record prices, Indian consumers adjusted their buying habits this festive season. Jewelers across the country report a noticeable shift from heavy, elaborate gold ornaments to smaller, investment-oriented products. Gold coins and bars (ranging from 1g up to 50g) were in extremely high demand on Dhanteras [38]. “India’s investment share of gold demand is rising, with buyers gravitating toward coins and bars over expensive jewellery as fabrication costs bite,” explained Inderbir Singh Jolly, CEO of PL Wealth Management [39]. In other words, many consumers saw little sense in paying high making charges on heavy jewelry at these prices. Instead, they opted to lock in pure gold value via coins/bullion, or they chose lightweight, design-rich jewelry pieces that didn’t break the bank [40]. Colin Shah of Kama Jewelry observed “significant demand for light-weight jewellery, especially among younger buyers,” alongside the major traction in bullion sales [41].
Jewelry retailers adapted quickly to this trend. Jewelers increased stocking of small coins and 24K gold bars ahead of Dhanteras [42]. Many launched special lightweight collections to cater to budget-conscious yet style-seeking shoppers. Thanks to this agility, the steep drop in big-ticket necklace/bridal set sales was partly offset by booming coin and mini-jewelry sales [43] [44]. In fact, some stores nearly ran out of gold coins and bars as investment buying surged [45]. Tanishq, India’s largest jewellery chain, reported that bullion products were flying off the shelves. “We have planned for it adequately, but I won’t be surprised if we run out of coins,” said Ajoy Chawla, CEO of Titan’s jewelry division (Tanishq), noting an unprecedented run on gold coins this year [46].
Chawla explained that many customers had been waiting in hope that gold prices would drop, but eventually “people realised that the price of gold is here to stay and is going up,” leading all the fence-sitters to jump in [47]. This Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) has clearly gripped buyers who don’t want to delay purchases any further. “The sentiment is clearly back,” Chawla told NDTV, as footfalls surged once shoppers accepted the new normal of ₹1.3 lakh/10g gold [48]. The ongoing wedding season (which follows Dhanteras/Diwali) added impetus – some families are buying now to “lock in the current rate” before prices rise further, especially for heavier pieces needed in weddings [49]. As a result of these dynamics, Dhanteras 2025 saw phenomenal consumer response even though the mix of products sold skewed lighter. “Overall, it was a phenomenal response this Dhanteras with an overall festive spike of 15–18% as compared to last year,” noted Colin Shah, citing combined jewelry and bullion sales growth [50] [51].
Stock Market Cheers Jewelry Boom
The bullish outlook for gold has not just benefited buyers of metal – it’s also lifted stock prices of jewelry and gold-related companies. Investors anticipate that strong festive sales will boost revenues for major jewelers and finance companies. Titan Company, owner of Tanishq, saw its stock near all-time highs this week on Dhanteras optimism. On October 17 (the day before Dhanteras), Titan’s share price closed around ₹3,670, up ~0.8% that day and 4% for the week [52]. Year-to-date, Titan shares have gained about 12.8% in 2025, handily beating the Nifty 50 index (which is up ~8% in the same period) [53]. In fact, Titan’s stock has been one of the standouts in a sluggish consumer goods sector – it’s hovering near its 52-week high of ₹3,740 [54]. Clearly, investors believe that Titan’s strong brand and nimble shift toward bullion products will translate into healthy profits despite expensive gold. Many analysts “think it may break out once again” to new highs on the back of festival demand, an HDFC Securities review noted [55].
It’s not just Titan. Other jewelry retailers like Kalyan Jewellers and Senco Gold have also been in focus, and gold loan financiers (e.g. Muthoot Finance) tend to benefit from higher gold valuations. Meanwhile, globally, gold mining companies are enjoying windfall profits with prices above $4,000/oz. Every $100 increase in gold adds directly to miners’ bottom lines, so firms like Newmont and Barrick are seeing improved earnings. Precious metal ETFs have also seen record inflows this year, which supports mining stocks and physical demand alike [56]. All in all, the market sentiment around gold is exuberant – both the physical market and equity market are rewarding those aligned with the precious metals boom. However, some caution that if the gold rally reverses, these stocks could cool off just as quickly. For now, though, gold-centric businesses are basking in the festive glow.
What’s Next: Will Gold’s Rally Continue?
After such a historic run in 2025, what comes next for gold and silver prices? Many experts say the fundamental drivers that pushed gold to record highs are still in play. Inderbir Jolly points out that from a macroeconomic lens, “gold continues to benefit from multiple tailwinds such as a weaker dollar, expectations of rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve, and sustained central bank accumulation” [57]. Those factors – along with geopolitical jitters – have made gold an attractive safe-haven. Indeed, this October gold logged its biggest weekly gain in nearly two decades, and global spot gold breached $4,300/oz for the first time [58] [59]. Investors from central banks to retail buyers have been piling in. Metals analysts note there’s “no clear end to the rally” in sight: “no obvious trigger…to retrace at present,” said Metals Focus, whose head Matthew Piggott targets around $5,000/oz in the coming years barring a major shift [60] [61].
Major financial institutions have been raising their gold forecasts. For example, ANZ Research now sees gold climbing to ~$4,400 by end-2025 and peaking near $4,600 by mid-2026 [62]. Standard Chartered’s Suki Cooper similarly projects gold averaging ~$4,488 in 2026, noting “further upside risk from broader structural factors” like central-bank buying [63]. Perhaps most striking, HSBC – traditionally conservative on gold – dramatically hiked its outlook: it now expects gold to hit $5,000/oz by next year (2024), after revising its 2025 average price forecast up to $3,350 [64]. In the near term, some analysts see gold testing the $4,500 level in the coming months if current trends persist [65]. Silver, which often tracks gold, could ride the wave higher too – forecasts have silver “eyeing” the $70–$75/oz range (versus ~$52/oz now) as its own supply-demand dynamics remain tight [66].
That said, the bullish consensus comes with caveats. Gold’s fortunes could shift if the world witnesses easing of major risks. As HDFC Securities notes, if we saw a concrete ceasefire in the Russia–Ukraine war or other geopolitical tensions cooling, gold prices could “come down significantly” [67]. Likewise, if inflation abates and the U.S. Federal Reserve pauses or slows rate cuts (making safe assets relatively less attractive), gold’s appeal might dim. A sharp rally in the U.S. dollar or resolution of trade disputes could also weigh on precious metals [68]. We got a taste of this on Oct 17, when calming U.S.–China trade comments and profit-taking caused a brief 1.7% dip from gold’s peak [69]. Still, any such pullbacks have so far been short-lived in 2025’s relentless uptrend.
For now, the structural factors propping up gold and silver remain strong. Central banks are buying gold at a record pace as a hedge [70]. Investors continue to view bullion as essential insurance in portfolios amid economic uncertainty and high global debt. And culturally in India, the post-Dhanteras wedding season will keep demand humming – historically this period sees heavy jewelry buying which can sustain high local prices and premiums [71]. As long as that backdrop stays in place, gold’s rally may have more room to run. As Metals Focus concluded, there is “no obvious trigger” on the horizon to end this bull run just yet [72]. In the words of one Mumbai gold wholesaler, “investors don’t seem deterred by high prices, they’re just buying” [73] – a sentiment that perfectly sums up Dhanteras 2025.
Sources: India Today [74] [75] [76] [77]; LiveMint [78] [79] [80]; NDTV [81] [82]; TS2.tech [83] [84]; HDFC Securities via HDFC Sky [85] [86]; Reuters/PTI reports [87] [88].
References
1. www.indiatoday.in, 2. www.livemint.com, 3. www.livemint.com, 4. www.indiatoday.in, 5. www.livemint.com, 6. www.indiatoday.in, 7. www.indiatoday.in, 8. www.ndtv.com, 9. www.ndtv.com, 10. markets.financialcontent.com, 11. ts2.tech, 12. ts2.tech, 13. hdfcsky.com, 14. www.indiatoday.in, 15. www.indiatoday.in, 16. www.indiatoday.in, 17. www.livemint.com, 18. www.indiatoday.in, 19. www.indiatoday.in, 20. www.livemint.com, 21. www.indiatoday.in, 22. www.indiatoday.in, 23. www.livemint.com, 24. www.livemint.com, 25. www.livemint.com, 26. www.indiatoday.in, 27. www.livemint.com, 28. www.livemint.com, 29. ts2.tech, 30. www.indiatoday.in, 31. www.livemint.com, 32. www.livemint.com, 33. www.livemint.com, 34. www.livemint.com, 35. www.livemint.com, 36. ts2.tech, 37. www.indiatoday.in, 38. www.livemint.com, 39. www.indiatoday.in, 40. www.indiatoday.in, 41. www.indiatoday.in, 42. ts2.tech, 43. hdfcsky.com, 44. hdfcsky.com, 45. hdfcsky.com, 46. www.ndtv.com, 47. www.ndtv.com, 48. www.ndtv.com, 49. www.indiatoday.in, 50. www.indiatoday.in, 51. www.indiatoday.in, 52. hdfcsky.com, 53. hdfcsky.com, 54. hdfcsky.com, 55. hdfcsky.com, 56. ts2.tech, 57. www.indiatoday.in, 58. www.indiatoday.in, 59. ts2.tech, 60. ts2.tech, 61. ts2.tech, 62. ts2.tech, 63. ts2.tech, 64. ts2.tech, 65. markets.financialcontent.com, 66. markets.financialcontent.com, 67. hdfcsky.com, 68. hdfcsky.com, 69. www.indiatoday.in, 70. ts2.tech, 71. ts2.tech, 72. ts2.tech, 73. ts2.tech, 74. www.indiatoday.in, 75. www.indiatoday.in, 76. www.indiatoday.in, 77. www.indiatoday.in, 78. www.livemint.com, 79. www.livemint.com, 80. www.livemint.com, 81. www.ndtv.com, 82. www.ndtv.com, 83. ts2.tech, 84. ts2.tech, 85. hdfcsky.com, 86. hdfcsky.com, 87. ts2.tech, 88. www.indiatoday.in
