The Dow Jones Industrial Average roared higher on Tuesday, November 25, 2025, with the Dow 30 jumping 664.18 points, or 1.43%, to 47,112.45, as investors doubled down on expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its December meeting. The S&P 500 added 0.91% to 6,765.88, while the tech‑heavy Nasdaq Composite gained 0.67% to 23,025.59. Small caps outperformed, with the Russell 2000 up about 2.1%. [1]
The rally extends Monday’s advance and leaves the Dow up roughly 10% year‑to‑date in 2025, and nearly 2% just this week, putting the blue‑chip index back near record territory set earlier in November. [2]
Trading came in a holiday‑shortened week—U.S. markets will be closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving and operate a shortened session on Friday—so positioning around the Fed and year‑end themes dominated the tape. [3]
Soft Data, Lower Yields and Fed Cut Bets Powered the Move
Tuesday’s surge in the Dow 30 was built squarely on the “bad‑ish news is good news” playbook.
A batch of economic data—delayed by the recent 43‑day government shutdown—painted a picture of a cooling, not collapsing, U.S. economy:
- Retail sales for September rose 0.2%, slower than the previous month and below economists’ expectations. [4]
- The Producer Price Index (PPI), a key wholesale inflation gauge, climbed 0.3%, matching forecasts, while “core” PPI increased just 0.1%, softer than anticipated. [5]
- The Conference Board consumer confidence index dropped to 88.7, its weakest reading since April, as households grew more wary about high prices and a softer job market. [6]
- Separate data from ADP showed private employers shedding jobs on average over the latest four‑week period, underlining labor‑market fatigue. [7]
That combination of softer spending and shaky sentiment, alongside contained underlying inflation, reinforced the idea that the Fed has room to ease.
In the bond market, the 10‑year Treasury yield slipped to roughly 4.00%–4.01%, dropping below the psychologically important 4% threshold for the first time since late October. Lower yields cut borrowing costs and tend to support equity valuations, especially for longer‑duration assets like growth and defensive blue‑chips. [8]
Futures tied to the federal funds rate—tracked via CME’s FedWatch tool—now assign odds in the low‑80% range to a quarter‑point rate cut in December, up sharply from roughly “coin‑flip” levels only a week ago. [9]
As Annex Wealth Management’s Brian Jacobsen put it, Fed Chair Jerome Powell “doesn’t need to be the Grinch that stole Christmas” by withholding another cut now that data are softening. [10]
Inside the Dow 30: Merck, Home Depot and Salesforce Do the Heavy Lifting
Beneath the headline 664‑point jump, Tuesday was a broad‑based rally across the Dow 30—28 of 30 components finished higher, with only Chevron and Nvidia in the red. [11]
Using official closing data for the Dow 30, here’s how leadership shook out: [12]
- Merck (MRK): $105.66, +5.26 ( +5.24% )
- Home Depot (HD): $351.07, +14.49 ( +4.31% )
- Salesforce (CRM): $234.12, +7.30 ( +3.22% )
- Nike (NKE): $63.68, +1.75 ( +2.83% )
- Walmart (WMT): $107.00, +2.94 ( +2.83% )
- UnitedHealth (UNH): $326.28, +7.23 ( +2.27% )
- Amgen (AMGN): $341.11, +6.81 ( +2.04% )
- American Express (AXP): $362.64, +6.71 ( +1.89% )
Merck: Healthcare bellwether at a 52‑week high
Merck was the single strongest Dow component, surging more than 5% and closing around a 52‑week high after touching roughly $105.08 intraday. Over the past six months the pharma giant has gained about 32%, helped by solid execution and optimism around its drug pipeline, including cancer therapies highlighted in earlier November trial results. [13]
From a valuation standpoint, Merck’s forward P/E around the high‑teens to mid‑teens range—Investing.com cited about 13.9 on recent numbers—keeps it looking relatively reasonable compared with many AI‑driven high‑flyers, making it an appealing defensive growth play when investors are nervous about tech froth. [14]
Home Depot: Rebound after earnings scare
Home Depot’s 4.3% leap to $351.07 represented a sharp rebound from last week, when the stock slid roughly 4% after the home‑improvement retailer trimmed its full‑year outlook on softer consumer spending and higher costs. [15]
Lower Treasury yields and rising rate‑cut odds are especially helpful for interest‑rate‑sensitive names tied to housing and big‑ticket consumer spending. Tuesday’s move suggests investors are starting to treat November’s earnings disappointment as a bump in the road rather than the start of a prolonged slowdown in home‑improvement demand. [16]
Salesforce, UnitedHealth and the “quality growth” trade
Salesforce (CRM) climbed just over 3.2% ahead of its December 3 earnings report, as investors favored large‑cap software names that can pair recurring revenue with exposure to enterprise AI spending. [17]
UnitedHealth (UNH) added about 2.3%, continuing a recovery supported by raised profit guidance and optimism around its hybrid care strategy, which blends digital and in‑person services. Recent analysis from Zacks, Trefis and others has highlighted both the company’s earnings power and the need to monitor regulatory and medical‑cost risks. [18]
Together with Amgen, Nike, Walmart and American Express, these names gave the Dow a strong foundation that wasn’t solely dependent on megacap tech—a notable shift given how AI leaders have dominated index performance for much of 2025. [19]
Nvidia and Chevron Sit Out the Party
The Dow’s strength was broad, but not universal.
Nvidia: AI titan under pressure
Nvidia (NVDA) was the Dow’s biggest loser, falling about 2.6% to $177.82, extending a pullback that began after the chipmaker posted blow‑out earnings last week. [20]
The immediate trigger was a report from The Information that Meta Platforms is in talks to spend billions of dollars on AI chips from Alphabet’s Google, rather than relying as heavily on Nvidia’s GPUs. That headline sparked worries that Google’s tensor processing units (TPUs) could increasingly eat into Nvidia’s dominance in AI data‑center spending. [21]
Market commentators also noted that Nvidia, even after this month’s drop, remains one of the most richly valued and widely owned AI plays, making it particularly vulnerable when investors rotate into more “old‑economy” and defensive winners like Merck, UnitedHealth or Home Depot. Recent warnings from central banks and the IMF about a potential AI‑driven stock bubble only sharpened that narrative. [22]
Chevron and energy: Hit by lower oil prices
Chevron (CVX) closed down about 0.8% at $148.52, making it the other Dow decliner on the day. [23]
Crude prices slid roughly 1.5–1.6%, with U.S. benchmark WTI falling below $58 a barrel and Brent hovering around $62, amid shifting expectations around global growth and geopolitics. Energy stocks consequently lagged; sector data show energy and utilities were among the only S&P 500 sectors in the red, even as most of the market rallied. [24]
Sector View: Health Care and Consumer Names Lead, Small Caps Catch Up
Today’s Dow 30 story fits into a bigger sector rotation across U.S. equities:
- Health care and consumer discretionary were the two best‑performing S&P 500 sectors, rising roughly 2.2% and 1.9% respectively. [25]
- The Russell 2000 small‑cap index jumped 2.1%, outpacing the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq, as lower yields tend to help smaller, more leveraged companies disproportionately. [26]
For the Dow 30 specifically, that translated into:
- Health‑care strength via Merck, UnitedHealth and Amgen, all posting gains of around 2%–5%. [27]
- Consumer‑driven gains via Home Depot, Nike, Walmart, McDonald’s and Disney, all riding rate‑cut hopes and still‑resilient consumer demand into solid green. [28]
By contrast, the energy and utilities sectors slipped modestly, illustrating a classic “lower‑rates, higher‑growth” risk‑on posture: investors were willing to trade bond‑like defensives (utilities) and commodity‑linked cyclicals (energy) for quality growth, health care and consumer names with more direct sensitivity to financing conditions. [29]
Dow 30 in Context: Year‑to‑Date and What Comes Next
With Tuesday’s 664‑point surge, the Dow is now up roughly 10–11% so far in 2025, while the S&P 500 has climbed about 15% and the Nasdaq more than 19%. The Russell 2000, helped by the past few sessions, is up around 10.6% year‑to‑date. [30]
A few key takeaways from today’s action for Dow 30 watchers:
- Momentum is broadening. The rally is no longer entirely dependent on a handful of mega‑cap AI names. Health care, retail, industrials and financials all contributed meaningfully. [31]
- Fed policy is firmly in the driver’s seat. Fed funds futures now price a strong probability of a December rate cut after two cuts earlier this year, and each incremental data point on inflation, jobs and spending is moving both bond yields and the Dow. [32]
- AI remains a double‑edged sword. Nvidia’s drop alongside strength in Alphabet and other beneficiaries of AI infrastructure shows that investors are becoming more selective within the theme, even as AI continues to shape index‑level moves. [33]
Looking ahead, markets will quickly pivot from Tuesday’s data dump to the next inflation readings, labor reports and the Fed’s December meeting. Within the Dow 30, upcoming catalysts include Salesforce’s earnings on December 3, fresh macro guidance from financials, and any renewed volatility in AI and chip names.
For now, though, the story of November 25, 2025 is straightforward: a Fed‑hopeful Wall Street, a falling yield curve, and a Dow 30 where defensive health care giants and big‑box retailers—not just AI darlings—owned the day.
References
1. www.marketscreener.com, 2. www.smdailyjournal.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.investopedia.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.latimes.com, 11. www.dow-jones-djia.com, 12. www.dow-jones-djia.com, 13. www.dow-jones-djia.com, 14. in.investing.com, 15. www.dow-jones-djia.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.dow-jones-djia.com, 18. www.tradingview.com, 19. www.dow-jones-djia.com, 20. www.dow-jones-djia.com, 21. www.investopedia.com, 22. apnews.com, 23. www.dow-jones-djia.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. english.news.cn, 26. www.smdailyjournal.com, 27. www.dow-jones-djia.com, 28. www.dow-jones-djia.com, 29. english.news.cn, 30. www.smdailyjournal.com, 31. www.dow-jones-djia.com, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. www.reuters.com
