NEW YORK — As of 5:00 p.m. Eastern Time (ET) on Monday, December 22, 2025, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) ended the day higher by 227.79 points (+0.47%) at 48,362.68, starting a holiday-shortened Christmas week with a broad-based rally that left the index sitting less than 1% below its recent record close from earlier this month. [1]
The move reflected a familiar late-December mix: a rebound in big tech and AI-linked names, a jump in commodities that buoyed energy and materials, and the return of “Santa Claus rally” positioning—tempered by expectations that thin holiday liquidity can amplify both upswings and pullbacks. [2]
Dow Jones close: what happened by the end of the session
By the closing bell, the major U.S. indexes all finished in the green:
- Dow Jones (DJIA):48,362.68, +227.79 (+0.47%)
- S&P 500:6,878.49, +43.99 (+0.64%)
- Nasdaq Composite:23,428.83, +121.21 (+0.52%) [3]
Market participants are also watching volatility closely into year-end: the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) closed at 14.08, Reuters reported—its lowest closing level since December 13, 2024, a signal that investors have been paying up less for near-term protection as stocks grind higher again. [4]
Why the Dow rose: tech rebound broadens out, “AI trade” steadies the tape
A key driver behind Monday’s “Dow Jones today” advance was the continued rebound in technology shares that began late last week. Reuters tied the bounce to upbeat semiconductor sentiment after Micron’s strong forecasts and a cooler inflation print recently helped reset expectations around growth and rates. [5]
Within that backdrop, Nvidia was highlighted as an important market tailwind. Reuters noted the company told Chinese clients it aims to start shipping its second-most powerful AI chips to China before the Lunar New Year holiday in mid-February—one more sign that the AI hardware cycle remains central to investor positioning. [6]
The bullish tone wasn’t limited to a handful of megacaps. Reuters reported that nearly all 11 S&P 500 sectors advanced on the day, with financials also showing strength and closing at a record. [7]
Energy and materials helped: oil jumps on Venezuela tanker pursuit; gold and silver hit records
Commodity-linked strength also mattered for the Dow on Dec. 22, especially because several blue-chip industrial and energy names can respond quickly to big swings in oil and global risk headlines.
Reuters reported that oil prices rose after the U.S. Coast Guard began pursuing an oil tanker in international waters near Venezuela. At the same time, gold and silver surged to record highs, underscoring a cross-asset day where investors were simultaneously leaning into risk assets (stocks) and seeking hedges (precious metals). [8]
- Reuters cited Brent crude settling around $62.07 a barrel. [9]
- AP reported U.S. crude oil around $58.01 a barrel and Brent around $62.07. [10]
- Reuters also detailed spot gold jumping to around $4,436/oz after hitting a record above $4,440, with silver also hitting a fresh peak. [11]
That commodity burst supported cyclical corners of the market and helped explain why energy and materials were among the day’s stronger areas, according to Reuters. [12]
Dow Jones movers: who led, who lagged inside the 30-stock index
Because the Dow is price-weighted, individual dollar moves in higher-priced components can carry outsized influence on the index level. MarketWatch noted that, as a rule of thumb, a $1 move in a Dow component translates to roughly 6.16 points in the DJIA. [13]
Notable gainers powering the DJIA
MarketWatch pointed to Merck and Chevron as key contributors to the Dow’s rise, saying the two stocks combined accounted for roughly 26 points of the day’s index move. [14]
Business Insider’s Dow mover list during the session also showed strength among several bellwethers, including Merck, JPMorgan Chase, Salesforce, Nvidia, Amgen, Caterpillar, and Boeing. [15]
Stocks weighing on the Dow
On the downside, Business Insider’s list showed losses (at points during the session) in names such as Apple, Procter & Gamble, 3M, Nike, and Honeywell. [16]
Honeywell drew particular attention Monday after Reuters reported the company expected a one-time charge of about $470 million tied to a potential settlement in Flexjet-related litigation, alongside updated earnings guidance reflecting a business reclassification. [17]
Corporate headlines shaping sentiment: Tesla, media deal drama, and more
Beyond the Dow itself, several high-profile corporate developments helped shape the broader risk mood:
- Tesla rose after Reuters reported the Delaware Supreme Court restored CEO Elon Musk’s 2018 pay package. [18]
- Media M&A speculation stayed hot. Reuters reported Warner Bros. Discovery rose after Larry Ellison agreed to provide a personal guarantee tied to financing for Paramount Skydance’s offer. AP also highlighted the same story as a driver of individual stock moves. [19]
- Reuters also flagged deal activity such as Clearwater Analytics jumping after an $8.4 billion go-private deal. [20]
These types of single-stock stories matter for the DJIA because a handful of large, widely held names can influence index sentiment even when the day’s macro calendar is relatively light.
Dow forecast and outlook for Christmas week: thin liquidity meets key U.S. data
With traders looking ahead from Monday’s 5:00 p.m. ET snapshot, the near-term Dow Jones forecast is less about one headline and more about the collision of holiday-thinned markets and late-month economic data.
1) Expect lighter trading and potentially sharper swings
Reuters emphasized that volumes were light and may thin further into the holiday, noting U.S. stock markets close at 1 p.m. ET on Wednesday and are shut Thursday for Christmas. [21]
When liquidity dries up, even normal-sized institutional orders can have an outsized impact—one reason late December can produce sudden bursts higher or quick air pockets lower.
2) The “Santa Claus rally” window is starting—and traders are watching it closely
Reuters cited Stock Trader’s Almanac data showing the “Santa Claus rally” period (the last five trading days of the year plus the first two in January) has historically delivered an average gain for the S&P 500, with this year’s window starting mid-week and running into early January. [22]
For the Dow, the takeaway is psychological as much as statistical: if big tech remains steady and cyclicals hold up, managers under pressure to show year-end performance may be reluctant sellers. But if tech leadership fades, the seasonal tailwind can weaken quickly.
3) The next catalysts are macro: GDP, consumer confidence, jobless claims
Both Reuters and AP pointed to several near-term economic releases that could influence rates expectations and equity pricing, even in a short week—particularly GDP, consumer confidence, and weekly jobless claims. [23]
A “hotter” read that revives inflation fears could pressure stocks via yields; a “cooler” set of numbers could reinforce the market narrative that policy easing remains possible.
Technical analysis: key Dow levels traders are watching after 48,362
Technical signals vary by methodology, but they remain a popular lens for short-term “Dow Jones outlook” articles—especially in holiday weeks when macro catalysts are fewer.
Investing.com’s technical dashboard described the Dow’s daily composite signal as “Strong Buy,” with a 14-day RSI around 57.4 and moving-average signals tilted positive overall. [24]
Some reference points from the same technical snapshot:
- 5-day moving average: ~48,389 (shown as a short-term “Sell” in that snapshot)
- 50-day moving average: ~48,215 (shown as “Buy”)
- 200-day moving average: ~47,518 (shown as “Buy”) [25]
In practical terms, traders often treat the 50-day as a “trend health” line and the 200-day as a longer-term regime gauge. With the Dow closing at 48,362, it remains above both of those longer moving averages in that dataset—supportive of the idea that pullbacks could still be viewed as “buy-the-dip” opportunities by trend-followers, while acknowledging that short-term momentum can still chop around near-term averages. [26]
Bottom line at 5:00 p.m. ET: the Dow is near records, but the next move hinges on tech leadership and holiday-week data
Monday’s close leaves the Dow in a familiar year-end position: near record territory, supported by AI/tech momentum, financial strength, and a commodity tailwind, while investors brace for thin holiday liquidity and a final set of economic signals before the calendar turns. [27]
If tech’s rebound holds and the week’s data doesn’t surprise in an inflationary direction, the DJIA could remain buoyant into the core “Santa rally” window. But with volumes expected to stay light, traders are also wary that sudden, headline-driven swings—especially tied to rates, oil, or mega-cap tech—can look larger than usual this week. [28]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. apnews.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.marketwatch.com, 14. www.marketwatch.com, 15. markets.businessinsider.com, 16. markets.businessinsider.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.investing.com, 25. www.investing.com, 26. www.investing.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.reuters.com
