NEW YORK, January 1, 2026, 12:36 ET — Market closed
- U.S. stock markets are closed on Thursday for New Year’s Day and reopen on Friday. AP News
- The Dow ended the final session of 2025 lower as holiday-thin trading amplified late-December moves. Reuters
- Next catalysts include early-January U.S. data and the first wave of big-company earnings and 2026 outlooks. Institute for Supply Management+2Bureau of Labor Statistics+2
U.S. stock markets were closed on Thursday for New Year’s Day, leaving the Dow Jones Industrial Average on hold after a late-year pullback. The Dow last closed down 303.77 points, or 0.63%, at 48,063.29 on Dec. 31, while the S&P 500 fell 0.74% and the Nasdaq Composite slid 0.76%. For 2025, the Dow gained 12.97%, the S&P 500 rose 16.39% and the Nasdaq climbed 20.36%, and “it’s perfectly fine in any bull market to have moments of cost,” said Giuseppe Sette, co-founder and president of Reflexivity. Reuters
Why this matters now is simple: the holiday break hands investors a clean reset into January, when fresh economic data and company guidance can quickly reprice expectations for growth and interest rates. A strong 2026 for U.S. stocks will likely hinge on corporate profits holding up, the Federal Reserve staying on a rate-cut path, and sustained spending tied to artificial intelligence, Reuters analysis said. Reuters
The immediate question for traders is whether late-December weakness was routine profit-taking or the start of a broader rotation away from crowded positions. In the prior session, losses in financial stocks weighed on the Dow, while Meta Platforms rose after it said it would acquire Chinese-founded AI startup Manus, Reuters reported. Investors also digested Fed minutes that showed officials debated risks before agreeing to cut rates, with markets expecting the central bank to stand pat at its Jan. 27-28 meeting. Reuters
The Dow is price-weighted, meaning higher-priced shares carry more influence on the index than lower-priced ones. That structure can concentrate day-to-day index moves in a handful of components, even when broader market performance looks steadier.
Before the next session, traders will be watching whether new-year buying shows up as liquidity returns on Friday, or whether the late-December slide extends. Round-number levels near 48,000 are often watched as a quick sentiment check after a holiday pause.
Early January’s first major macro tests arrive next week. The Institute for Supply Management is due to release its December Manufacturing PMI at 10:00 a.m. ET on Monday, Jan. 5, followed by the Services PMI on Wednesday, Jan. 7. PMI, short for Purchasing Managers’ Index, is a survey-based gauge of business conditions; readings above 50 indicate expansion. Institute for Supply Management+1
Labor and inflation data follow soon after. The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ schedule shows the December U.S. employment report is due on Friday, Jan. 9, and the Consumer Price Index report is slated for Tuesday, Jan. 13, both at 8:30 a.m. ET. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Earnings will quickly take over as the main driver for index-level moves. JPMorgan Chase said it will report fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on Jan. 13, Goldman Sachs has set its fourth-quarter release for Jan. 15, and UnitedHealth Group plans to report on Jan. 27 and provide 2026 financial guidance. JPMorgan Chase+2Goldman Sachs+2
Those early reports matter for the Dow because banks are a read on credit demand and trading conditions, while large health insurers often set the tone for managed-care pricing and medical-cost trends. Investors will be looking for guidance that either backs up or challenges expectations for profit growth into 2026.
The other watchpoint is whether market leadership broadens beyond mega-cap growth themes that dominated much of the prior rally. More balanced participation tends to make index gains more durable, while narrow leadership can leave markets vulnerable if a single theme stumbles.
For now, the Dow starts 2026 with a strong prior-year gain but a soft finish, and a calendar that offers fast answers. If the data support a cooling inflation story without a sharp growth hit — and if earnings guidance holds up — risk appetite is likely to return quickly once Wall Street reopens.
