NEW YORK, April 10, 2026, 06:19 EDT.
U.S. stock index futures hovered near unchanged ahead of Friday’s session, with traders waiting on the March CPI, due at 8:30 a.m. ET, and watching the fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire. By 4:45 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis had dropped 0.15%, while futures tied to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 both edged down 0.08%. After the bell, an early April look at University of Michigan consumer sentiment is on tap.
This inflation print gives the first concrete look at how the oil spike is filtering through to what households actually pay. Reuters-polled economists are looking for the Consumer Price Index to climb 0.9% in March, with the annual move pegged at 3.3%. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, is forecast up 0.3% for the month and 2.7% over the year. Boston College’s Brian Bethune isn’t mincing words: the headline figure, he says, will probably be “pretty ugly.” Reuters
Momentum carried over into the report, with the Dow up 0.58% Thursday, the S&P 500 notching a 0.62% advance, and the Nasdaq up 0.83%. Gains came as news broke that Israel might be open to talks with Beirut, though investors still weighed ongoing threats in the Strait of Hormuz.
Overnight, markets steadied—confidence still in short supply. STOXX 600 in Europe inched up 0.3%. The MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan index tacked on 0.9%. Brent hovered close to $97 a barrel, while Wall Street’s VIX fell back to readings last seen before the war. Yet shipping through Hormuz on Thursday? Still less than 10% of the usual volume.
The Fed picture remains tricky. Weekly jobless claims ticked up to 219,000, while February consumer spending posted a 0.5% gain. Core PCE—the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—stuck at 3.0%. Minutes from the March meeting revealed more policymakers leaning toward possible rate hikes if inflation doesn’t cool off.
UBS Global Wealth Management is sticking with its forecast for a Fed rate cut later this year, citing an expected slowdown in “sequential core inflation” as hiring cools off. But the mood on price pressures isn’t quite there: the New York Fed reported a jump in one-year inflation expectations, up to 3.4% in March compared with 3.0% in February. Reuters
Up next: company guidance. Goldman Sachs reports Monday, followed by JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup—first out of the gate among big lenders. Baird analyst David George says trading desks could get a lift from geopolitical volatility, but expects investment banking, mortgages, and wealth management to remain subdued until the conflict settles.
Utilities have turned into a surprising safe haven. The S&P 500 utilities index jumped 7.5% over the first quarter—its strongest opening since 2019—as investors shifted cash into more dependable dividend names amid the Iran war. “When volatility really ramps up,” these stocks attract more attention, according to Northwestern Mutual’s Matt Stucky. Reuters
The clean bull thesis still hinges on oil and diplomacy. Barclays flagged upside risk to its $85-a-barrel Brent call, pointing to delays getting crude moving again through Hormuz. Reuters, meanwhile, noted the recent market bounce could be outpacing a reality colored by expensive energy, sluggish growth, and a fragile ceasefire heading into Saturday’s U.S.-Iran talks in Pakistan. For Friday morning, Wall Street has little choice: watch inflation, then scan for the next Gulf headline.
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