NEW YORK, April 1, 2026, 07:09 EDT.
U.S. stock futures edged higher early Wednesday, coming off Wall Street’s strongest single-day rally in almost a year. Investors latched onto President Donald Trump’s comment that the U.S. might be able to wind down the Iran war in two to three weeks. Dow and S&P 500 futures climbed about 0.5%, while Nasdaq 100 futures were up around 0.7%, according to Reuters.
The rebound stands out after a brutal March, with global equities enduring their steepest monthly decline since September 2022 and erasing roughly $8 trillion in value. Brent crude, meanwhile, just saw its sharpest jump since the first Gulf War. Now, investors are left debating if Tuesday’s upswing signals an actual shift—or simply reflects quarter-end positioning after a stretch of inflation jitters and tempered Fed cut expectations.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 1,125.37 points to close at 46,341.51 on Tuesday. The S&P 500 tacked on 2.91%, ending the session at 6,528.52, while the Nasdaq gained 3.83% to 21,590.63—marking the biggest single-day advances for all three benchmarks since May 2025. Still, by quarter’s end, losses remained: the S&P dropped 4.6%, the Dow slipped 3.6%, and the Nasdaq fell 7.1%. That left the S&P 500 and Dow recording their weakest quarter since 2022.
Momentum picked up after a Wall Street Journal report said Trump had privately told aides he’d consider dropping out of the race, even if the Strait of Hormuz stayed mostly shut. That narrow waterway handles roughly 20% of the world’s oil and LNG shipments—any hiccups there quickly jolt fuel prices, stoke inflation, and cloud growth forecasts.
Tech shares snapped back hard. Nvidia surged 5.6%, Alphabet tacked on 5.1%, and Meta Platforms jumped 6.7%, driving the Philadelphia chip index up 6.24%. Energy didn’t keep pace, with the S&P energy index down 1.2% as oil slipped. The rebound followed a rough quarter for the Magnificent Seven megacaps, all of which ended lower for the period as investors worried about whether heavy AI investments would pay off.
Bill Northey, senior investment director at U.S. Bank Wealth Management, described the current capital markets as driven by bets on an earlier exit or a pause in hostilities, speaking to Reuters. Over at Raymond James, chief market strategist Matt Orton pointed out that the recent jump in energy prices has put inflation back on the radar, complicating things for investors who were already jittery about where rates are headed.
Still, that relief rally might be fleeting. “Markets are trading this narrative that the war could be over,” said Evelyne Gomez-Liechti, multi-asset strategist at Mizuho, but she isn’t convinced—strikes are ongoing. Ole Hansen from Saxo Bank flagged a risk: a longer conflict could shove oil prices into “demand destruction” levels, meaning prices would climb so high they’d start cutting into consumption. Reuters
It wasn’t just a New York story. The STOXX 600 in Europe tacked on roughly 2.1% Wednesday. Over in Asia, stocks outside Japan posted their sharpest single-day jump since late 2022. Brent crude, after a choppy session, slipped back toward $103 a barrel. Still, U.S. gasoline prices have already topped $4 a gallon—levels not seen since 2022.
This quarter brought more trouble than just fallout from the conflict. According to Reuters, investor anxiety was mounting over climbing Treasury yields, outsized spending tied to artificial-intelligence infrastructure, and tension in private credit markets. Fresh U.S. economic numbers weren’t much help: while consumer confidence edged up in March, job openings and new hires both lost steam.
Trump’s 9 p.m. ET speech on Iran looms, as investors brace for another round of U.S. numbers—private payrolls, retail sales, business activity surveys all on tap. Right now, traders are leaning into hopes for a more straightforward exit. Still, the impact on energy markets, inflation, and the broader economy remains up in the air.
