Economic Calendar Today, December 10, 2025: Fed Rate Cut, Wage Data and Oil Stocks Drive Markets

Global markets are trading nervously this morning as investors digest fresh inflation and industry data from Asia and Europe while bracing for a pivotal Federal Reserve rate decision and a closely watched Bank of Canada meeting later in the day. ^[1]

Below is a structured look at the key data and events on today’s economic calendar — and how they are shaping stock, bond, commodity and currency markets.

Global Snapshot: Markets in a Holding Pattern Before the Fed

Equities and other risk assets are largely treading water as traders wait for clarity on the 2026 rate path from the Fed:

Global stocks are slightly weaker, with Europe’s STOXX 600 down around 0.1% while S&P 500 futures are up about 0.1%, reflecting a cautious bid into the Fed meeting. ^[2]
Asian markets were broadly lower earlier in the day: Japan’s Nikkei slipped about 0.37%, Shanghai Composite fell 0.71%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped 0.53%, and Australia’s ASX 200 edged down 0.10%. ^[3]
Bond markets remain on edge. The U.S. 10‑year Treasury yield is hovering near 4.18%, up roughly 17 basis points since the start of December, while German and UK 10‑year yields are slightly softer. ^[4]
Safe-haven FX & metals are in focus: the yen has weakened sharply, with the euro touching a record high around ¥182.6 and the dollar near ¥156.6, while silver has surged above $61 per ounce, extending a powerful 2025 rally. ^[5]

In U.S. pre‑market trade, Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures are modestly higher — roughly 0.05–0.10% — as Wall Street positions for the Fed’s final policy decision of the year and big‑tech earnings from Oracle and Broadcom. ^[6]

Key Data on Today’s Economic Calendar

1. Asia: China Inflation Picks Up, But PPI Stays Deep in the Red

The day began with important inflation figures from China that set the tone for Asian trading:

China CPI (November, YoY):
- +0.7% year‑on‑year, up from +0.2% in October and matching consensus.
- Marks the highest inflation reading since March 2024, driven largely by higher food prices. ^[7]
China PPI (November, YoY):
- ‑2.2% year‑on‑year, keeping factory‑gate prices in deep deflation and underscoring weak domestic demand. ^[8]

For equity markets, this mix of slightly firmer consumer inflation and persistent producer deflation has contributed to a cautious mood: decent headline growth, but lingering doubts about the depth of the recovery. ^[9]

2. Europe: Italian Industrial Output Disappoints, ECB and BoE Speeches Ahead

Europe’s morning session brought a negative surprise from Italy and a slate of central‑bank speakers:

Italy Industrial Production (October, MoM):
- ‑1.0% month‑on‑month, far worse than expectations for a ~0.3% decline.
- Follows a revised +2.7% jump in September, indicating renewed weakness in Italy’s long‑struggling manufacturing sector. ^[10]

The miss adds to concerns about patchy industrial momentum across the eurozone and weighed slightly on European risk sentiment this morning. ^[11]

Elsewhere in Europe, today’s calendar features mostly second‑tier data and important central‑bank communication:

Norway CPI (November): Headline and core inflation both around 3.0% YoY, broadly in line with expectations and Norges Bank’s projections. ^[12]
Sweden Industrial Production (October): Output slowed, with annual growth easing to around 5.9% YoY from very strong prior readings. ^[13]
ECB President Christine Lagarde and BoE Governor Andrew Bailey are scheduled to speak later in the European session, and markets will parse any hints about 2026 policy moves. ^[14]

European equities reflect this cautious setup: the STOXX 600 is off about 0.1%, with Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC 40 down around 0.3% while the FTSE 100 is roughly flat. ^[15]

3. North America: Fed Decision, Wage Costs, Oil and the BoC

The real action on today’s economic calendar is in North America, where several data points converge with key central‑bank decisions.

United States

a) Q3 Employment Cost Index (ECI)

The Q3 2025 Employment Cost Index is due this morning after being delayed by the 43‑day U.S. government shutdown earlier this year. Originally scheduled for October 31, it was rescheduled to December 10 at 8:30 a.m. ET. ^[16]
Economists expect compensation costs to rise about 0.9% quarter‑on‑quarter, matching Q2’s 0.9% increase and pointing to gradually cooling — but still elevated — wage growth. ^[17]

Because so many other U.S. releases have been pushed back, today’s ECI carries extra weight as one of the few timely labour‑cost indicators the Fed will see before finalizing its projections. ^[18]

b) EIA Crude Oil Inventories (week ending December 6)

The official EIA crude inventory report is scheduled for 10:30 a.m. ET. Consensus looks for a modest draw of around 1.7 million barrels, after last week’s surprise build of +0.57 million barrels. ^[19]
Overnight, the API’s private inventory estimate showed a much larger‑than‑expected 4.8 million‑barrel draw, fueling speculation that the EIA report could confirm tightening supplies and support oil prices. ^[20]

c) Fed Interest Rate Decision & Projections (FOMC)

The Federal Reserve announces its last policy decision of 2025 at 2:00 p.m. ET, followed by Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. ^[21]
Futures markets and most analysts expect a third consecutive 25‑basis‑point rate cut, taking the federal funds target range from 3.75–4.00% down to 3.50–3.75%. ^[22]
The “dot plot” rate projections for 2026 are the main suspense point. Markets are pricing in roughly two more cuts by the end of next year, but several Fed officials have recently signalled discomfort with an aggressive easing path, especially with labour demand still resilient. ^[23]

The Fed’s decision is further complicated by the data backlog created by the shutdown, which has delayed key reports on jobs, trade, retail sales, CPI and GDP into mid‑ and late‑December. ^[24]

d) U.S. Treasury Budget (November)

The monthly federal budget balance is due around 2:00 p.m. ET, with economists projecting a deficit near $190–195 billion, smaller than October’s roughly $284 billion shortfall as tax receipts normalize. ^[25]

Canada

Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision

The Bank of Canada (BoC) announces its final 2025 policy decision at 9:45 a.m. ET, followed by a press conference at about 10:30 a.m. ET. ^[26]
After back‑to‑back 25‑bp cuts in September and October, which took the overnight rate to 2.25%, the BoC has strongly hinted it is likely done easing for now. ^[27]
A Reuters poll and multiple previews from major banks show near‑unanimous expectations that the BoC will hold at 2.25%, marking the start of what could be a prolonged pause as growth stabilizes following tariff‑related shocks. ^[28]

Markets will be watching whether Governor Tiff Macklem signals any willingness to cut further in 2026 or instead leans into a “higher for longer” stance if inflation progress stalls. ^[29]

How Today’s Data Are Moving Stocks, Bonds and Currencies

Asia and Emerging Markets

Asian equity indices opened weaker, reflecting a combination of Fed anxiety, soft risk appetite and mixed Chinese data:

Nikkei ‑0.37%, Shanghai Composite ‑0.71%, Hang Seng ‑0.53%, ASX 200 ‑0.10%. ^[30]
Chinese CPI’s move up to 0.7% YoY — the highest in 21 months — helped alleviate extreme deflation fears but did not fully offset concerns over a still‑negative PPI. ^[31]

In South Africa, the rand edged about 0.2% stronger to around 17.02 per dollar ahead of October retail sales data and the Fed decision, while local bond yields eased slightly. ^[32]

Europe

European bourses are modestly lower, with industrial and rate‑sensitive sectors under pressure:

Pan‑European STOXX 600: about ‑0.1%.
DAX and CAC 40: roughly ‑0.3%, as the weak Italian industrial print feeds broader manufacturing worries. ^[33]

Bond markets are mixed: eurozone yields have ticked slightly lower, but U.S. yields near 4.18% continue to anchor global discount rates and valuations. ^[34]

U.S. Futures and North American Equities

In U.S. pre‑market trade:

Dow futures hover near 47,635 (+0.05%),
S&P 500 futures around 6,856 (+0.11%),
Nasdaq 100 futures near 25,724 (+0.10%),

as investors stay lightly positioned ahead of the 2 p.m. ET Fed announcement and Oracle’s earnings after the bell. ^[35]

In India, domestic stocks are mixed: the Sensex is roughly flat to modestly higher in mid‑morning trade, with metal shares outperforming while IT and consumer names lag amid global growth jitters and a softer rupee. ^[36]

Why the Employment Cost Index Is Crucial for Stocks Today

The Employment Cost Index is one of the Fed’s preferred gauges of underlying wage inflation because it captures both wages and benefits across industries and job types. ^[37]

Today’s Q3 2025 release matters for several reasons:

It fills a data gap.
After the prolonged government shutdown, the official schedule for key U.S. reports — including CPI, payrolls, trade and retail sales — has been heavily rearranged. Today’s ECI is among the first major labour‑cost readings to arrive before the Fed finalizes its new projections. ^[38]
It anchors the inflation narrative.
If ECI remains around the expected 0.9% q/q, that implies annual compensation growth in the mid‑3% range — broadly consistent with inflation slowly drifting back toward 2% if productivity holds up. A hotter surprise would revive fears of sticky wage inflation and could push Treasury yields and the dollar higher, weighing on growth and tech stocks. ^[39]
It shapes the “hawkish cut” debate.
Many strategists expect the Fed to cut today but deliver a comparatively hawkish message, stressing that further easing in early 2026 is not guaranteed. Stronger‑than‑expected wage growth would make that stance even more credible, potentially flattening the 2026 rate‑cut curve priced into futures. ^[40]

For equities, a benign ECI print near consensus would likely support a “Goldilocks” narrative of easing inflation and incremental policy support — constructive for cyclical sectors and small caps. A hot ECI, by contrast, could hit richly‑valued growth and AI‑linked names if investors conclude that real rates will need to stay higher for longer.

Fed Meeting Preview: Third Cut Priced In, 2026 Outlook in Focus

Today’s FOMC decision is the main event for global markets, with several layers for traders to parse:

Headline rate move
- Markets price an ~90% chance of a 25‑bp cut, taking the federal funds range to 3.50–3.75% — the third cut of 2025. ^[41]
The dot plot for 2026
- The prior projections indicated only limited additional easing next year, while futures now assume roughly two cuts by end‑2026. Any upward shift in the median dot (fewer cuts) would be seen as hawkish and could pressure stocks and high‑yield credit. ^[42]
Powell’s tone at the press conference
- Several analysts — including at Danske Bank — expect Powell to push back against the idea of back‑to‑back cuts in early 2026, emphasizing data dependence and the risk of re‑igniting inflation. ^[43]
Data blackout and uncertainty
- Because the shutdown delayed or cancelled multiple key releases (including the November payrolls report, now due December 16, and November CPI, now due December 18), the Fed is making decisions with an unusually incomplete picture of the economy. ^[44]

For stocks, the base case is a modestly supportive combination: a widely‑telegraphed cut, limited changes to growth and inflation forecasts, and a “we’re not on autopilot” message that reins in the most aggressive easing bets without derailing the soft‑landing narrative.

Bank of Canada: Likely Start of a Long Pause

While the Fed grabs the headlines, the Bank of Canada delivers an important decision of its own:

After cutting rates twice (September and October) to 2.25%, the BoC has signalled that further easing is unlikely unless the growth outlook deteriorates again. ^[45]
A recent Reuters poll found all economists expect the BoC to hold rates today, a view echoed by major Canadian banks and think tanks, including the C.D. Howe Institute. ^[46]

With Canada’s labour market and GDP data showing signs of stabilization after earlier tariff shocks, investors will focus more on the forward guidance than the headline decision:

A firm “on hold through 2026” message could support the Canadian dollar and weigh on interest‑rate‑sensitive local stocks.
A more cautious tone acknowledging downside risks might fuel speculation about at least one more cut next year.

Commodities Watch: Oil, Gold and Silver

Oil

Crude prices are relatively steady ahead of the EIA report: Brent futures are trading just above $62 per barrel and WTI near $58, with traders weighing the bullish API draw against concerns about demand. ^[47]
A confirmed EIA draw would reinforce the view that inventories are tightening into year‑end — typically supportive for energy stocks — while another surprise build could cap rallies in the sector. ^[48]

Gold and Silver

Gold is hovering around $4,200 an ounce, just below the record highs reached in October, supported by lower real yields and persistent macro uncertainty. ^[49]
Silver remains the standout story, trading around $61–62 an ounce after more than doubling this year amid dwindling inventories and strong structural demand from solar, EV and data‑center applications. ^[50]

The combination of a Fed cut, cautious guidance and still‑high real yields will determine whether precious metals can extend their rally into year‑end or face a bout of profit‑taking.

What Traders Are Watching Next

For traders and investors mapping out the rest of the week and beyond, today’s economic calendar is the pivot point:

In the next 24 hours
- Final outcome of the Fed and BoC meetings.
- Market reaction in equities, Treasuries, the dollar and commodities once Powell and Macklem speak.
Over the coming days
- Delayed U.S. data: September trade and wholesale inventories (December 11), followed by a heavy batch on December 16 (November jobs and October retail sales), and rescheduled November CPI on December 18. ^[51]
- Ongoing readings from Europe’s manufacturing sector and China’s activity data, which will either confirm or challenge today’s hints of a patchy, uneven global recovery. ^[52]

For now, the key driver of stocks this morning is expectation management:
whether the Fed and BoC deliver exactly what markets have priced in — and how strongly they push back on hopes for a rapid return to near‑zero rates.