Published: December 7, 2025
Key takeaways
- ELF stock trades around the low‑$80s, down roughly 35–40% year to date and about half below its 52‑week high near $151, after a sharp post‑earnings sell‑off in November. [1]
- Q2 FY2026 results showed 14% sales growth but margin pressure and softer guidance, triggering a one‑day drop of about 20% when the company missed consensus revenue estimates and cut earnings expectations for fiscal 2026. [2]
- Analyst opinion is split: Zacks now rates ELF a “Strong Sell,” while most brokerage analysts still call it a Buy, with 12‑month price targets clustered around $122–$130, implying roughly 50–60% upside from current levels. [3]
- Management is leaning into AI and brand building (Rhode acquisition, NWSL and international expansion) but warns that Q4 organic growth may slip below its prior 2–5% range amid softer U.K. demand. [4]
- Forecasts remain ambitious: independent models and fundamental screens project double‑digit annual revenue growth and rapid earnings growth over the next several years, but from a lower profit base and under heavy tariff and cost pressures. [5]
This article summarizes the latest news, forecasts and analyses on ELF stock as of December 7, 2025.
Where ELF stock stands today
e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (NYSE: ELF) closed recently around $81–82 per share, with an intraday range of roughly $80.03 to $84.38 and a market capitalization near $4.9 billion. Over the last 52 weeks, the stock has traded between $49.40 and $150.99, highlighting how violent the recent drawdown has been. [6]
According to Zacks and related coverage, shares are down roughly 36–39% year to date, significantly underperforming both the S&P 500 and the broader personal‑care and cosmetics group. [7]
Valuation remains elevated despite the pullback. StockAnalysis and other data providers put ELF’s trailing price‑to‑earnings ratio around the high‑50s and the forward P/E in the high‑20s to low‑30s, versus a sector average in the mid‑20s, suggesting the stock still trades at a premium to peers based on expected earnings. [8]
What happened: Q2 FY2026 earnings and the November sell‑off
The turning point for ELF stock this year was the company’s second quarter of fiscal 2026, reported on November 5, 2025, covering the three months ended September 30. [9]
From e.l.f. Beauty’s own earnings release and subsequent coverage:
- Net sales rose 14% year over year to $343.9 million, marking the company’s 27th consecutive quarter of net sales growth.
- Growth was driven by both U.S. and international channels and supported by market‑share gains for the core e.l.f. brand and a record launch of Hailey Bieber’s Rhode brand in Sephora North America. [10]
- GAAP net income fell to $3.0 million, while adjusted net income reached $40.7 million, with adjusted EPS at $0.68 versus just $0.05 on a GAAP basis. [11]
- Gross margin contracted about 165 basis points to 69%, primarily due to higher tariffs, and adjusted EBITDA margin slipped to 19% of sales, down 4% year over year. [12]
The headline issue wasn’t growth—it was expectations:
- Revenue of $343.9 million missed the consensus estimate near $368 million.
- For fiscal 2026, management guided net sales of $1.55–$1.57 billion, below the roughly $1.65 billion analysts had modeled.
- Adjusted EPS guidance of $2.80–$2.85 was well under the prior consensus around $3.50+. [13]
The result: ELF stock fell about 20% in a single session on November 5, with subsequent days of volatility as analysts recalibrated their models and ratings. Multiple outlets described the move as the stock’s worst drop on record after an earnings report. [14]
Tariffs, margins and the Zacks “Strong Sell” call
A detailed post‑earnings analysis from Zacks, republished by Nasdaq, framed the quarter as “solid top‑line momentum” but worsening profitability. [15]
Key points from that breakdown:
- Gross margin at 69% remains very high for mass‑market beauty, but the 165‑basis‑point decline was attributed largely to tariffs.
- Operating income fell sharply versus the prior year, and adjusted EBITDA—about $66 million—represented 19% of sales, down from the previous year’s margin. [16]
- Zacks noted that the stock has plunged about 38.9% year to date, while the industry as a whole is down about 1.1%.
- On their numbers, e.l.f. trades at a forward P/E around 32, compared with an industry average near 26, and the consensus for fiscal 2026 points to a 13.6% year‑over‑year decline in earnings before re‑accelerating in fiscal 2027. [17]
Against this backdrop, Zacks now assigns ELF a Rank #5 (Strong Sell)—its most bearish category—arguing that earnings‑estimate revisions and margin risk do not yet justify even the lower post‑sell‑off valuation. [18]
That strongly negative stance sits in sharp contrast with most broker research.
Wall Street’s view: from Strong Sell to Buy
Despite the Zacks downgrade, brokerage analysts as a group remain broadly constructive on ELF stock.
Aggregators such as StockAnalysis, MarketBeat, TradingView and others show:
- Around 16–17 covering analysts. [19]
- A consensus rating of “Buy” or “Moderate Buy”, with the distribution roughly:
- 1 Strong Buy,
- about 10 Buy,
- 6 Hold,
- 1 Sell. [20]
- Average 12‑month price targets in the $122–$130 range, with lows around $75–$100 and highs up to $155–$170 depending on the data source. [21]
In concrete terms, these targets imply roughly 50–60% upside from the current share price in the low‑$80s, if the company executes on its plan and sentiment improves. [22]
Recent rating actions underscore the split in views:
- Piper Sandler cut ELF from Overweight to Neutral with a $100 target, citing slowing core growth and margin pressure. [23]
- Several firms—including Robert W. Baird, Goldman Sachs and Canaccord Genuity—have reduced their targets but still maintain Buy or Outperform ratings, with targets now mostly in the $120–$160 band. [24]
- Wall Street Zen (as cited by MarketBeat) recently upgraded ELF from Sell to Hold even as it highlighted insider selling and post‑earnings volatility. [25]
On the more quantitative side, TradingView’s consensus figure puts the one‑year price target at about $121.71 with an overall “buy” rating, while another forecast source, CoinCodex, goes much further and projects that ELF could more than triple over the next year—an aggressive algorithmic call that should be treated as speculative rather than fundamental. [26]
Growth forecasts: earnings, revenue and return on equity
Looking beyond the next quarter, fundamental forecast platforms continue to see strong structural growth:
- Simply Wall St’s “Future Growth” model expects earnings to grow about 45.8% per year and revenue about 13.1% per year, with EPS growth of roughly 41.6% annually.
- The same model projects return on equity around 15–16% in three years, which would be healthy for a consumer‑staples name. [27]
TradingView’s earnings and revenue estimates echo this optimism in the near term, with analysts looking for:
- Next‑quarter EPS again around $0.68,
- Next‑quarter revenue near $451 million, implying further top‑line growth from the most recent $343.9 million quarter. [28]
At the same time, e.l.f.’s own fiscal 2026 outlook remains somewhat conservative on profit:
- Net sales are guided to $1.55–$1.57 billion, an 18–20% increase over fiscal 2025.
- Adjusted EBITDA is expected to rise modestly to $302–306 million from $297 million.
- Adjusted net income, however, is guided down to $165–168 million vs. $198 million in fiscal 2025, with adjusted EPS falling from $3.39 to $2.80–$2.85 due to higher interest expense, tariffs, and heavier investment in marketing and integration. [29]
The story, in short: revenue and market share still look robust, but margin and earnings growth are taking a temporary step back.
Strategy update: AI pivot, Rhode and global expansion
Several recent developments shape the qualitative side of the ELF investment case.
AI‑driven marketing and search
In early December, management used the Morgan Stanley Global Consumer & Retail Conference to caution that Q4 organic sales growth could dip below the prior 2–5% target range, citing softer demand in the U.K. [30]
At the same time, they emphasized an “e.l.f AI” pivot:
- Overhauling digital content to perform better in AI‑driven search and shopping environments.
- Positioning ELF’s brands to remain discoverable as consumers increasingly encounter products via recommendation engines and generative‑search experiences rather than traditional search results. [31]
Simply Wall St characterizes this as a near‑term sentiment headwind but not a reset of the long‑term thesis, arguing that investors who buy ELF must believe a digital‑first, value‑oriented brand portfolio can keep gaining share even as costs rise. [32]
Rhode acquisition and brand portfolio
The November quarter was also the first to fully showcase Rhode, Hailey Bieber’s skin‑care brand, inside the ELF portfolio:
- The company highlighted a “record‑breaking” Rhode launch at Sephora North America and continued share gains across its e.l.f. Cosmetics and e.l.f. SKIN offerings. [33]
On top of that, the company continues to invest in:
- NWSL sponsorships and women’s sports activations,
- International distribution, including landing at Ulta Beauty Mexico,
- Purpose‑branded campaigns like “The Sound of Kindness,” and ongoing social‑first marketing that has historically been a key differentiator. [34]
These initiatives reinforce e.l.f.’s strategy as a culturally plugged‑in, value‑price beauty platform that seeks to balance affordability with high gross margins and rapid innovation.
Balance sheet and risk profile
The Q2 FY2026 release also showed a meaningfully more leveraged balance sheet:
- Cash and equivalents: about $194 million, up from $96.8 million a year earlier.
- Long‑term debt: about $831.6 million, up from $156.6 million the prior year, largely reflecting financing tied to acquisitions and growth investments. [35]
Key risk factors now in focus:
- Tariff exposure and margin pressure
Tariffs are currently the single biggest drag on gross margin, and while management expects easier comparisons next year, the near‑term effect is clear: gross margin has compressed, and tariffs could stay politically volatile. [36] - High marketing and SG&A spending
SG&A rose sharply in both absolute terms and as a percentage of sales, driven by marketing, merchandising, distribution, and integration costs. Investors are wrestling with how long this elevated spend is required to sustain double‑digit revenue growth. [37] - Leverage and interest rates
With debt now above $800 million, e.l.f. is more sensitive to interest costs and refinancing conditions than it was a year ago, especially if growth slows. [38] - Insider selling vs. institutional buying
Recent filings compiled by MarketBeat indicate significant insider selling, including roughly 116,000 shares sold by CEO Tarang Amin and about 296,000 shares sold by insiders in total over the last three months, even as hedge fund Marshall Wace LLP acquired about 948,718 ELF shares. [39] - Valuation volatility
Even after the drawdown, ELF still trades at a premium to most mass‑beauty peers on forward earnings, leaving the stock vulnerable if growth or margins disappoint again. [40]
Is ELF stock a buy, sell, or hold now?
Different analytical lenses are sending very different signals on ELF stock as of December 7, 2025:
- Quantitative screens (Zacks, some factor models) emphasize the earnings‑guidance reset, tariff‑driven margin compression, high forward P/E and steep year‑to‑date decline, landing on a Strong Sell view. [41]
- Fundamental and growth‑oriented analysts focus on the still‑strong top‑line trajectory, sustained market‑share gains, brand momentum and long runway in global beauty, supporting Buy / Moderate Buy ratings with price targets well above current levels. [42]
- Long‑term forecast tools (e.g., Simply Wall St, algorithmic prediction sites) project double‑digit revenue and high earnings growth over multiple years, but those models assume successful margin repair and continued category outperformance. [43]
For investors, the core debate around ELF stock now looks like this:
- Bull case:
- e.l.f. remains one of the fastest‑growing names in mass‑market beauty;
- Rhod e and other brands broaden the portfolio and price ladder;
- AI‑optimized digital marketing and strong social presence can keep driving share gains;
- margins recover as tariff comparisons ease and scale kicks in;
- current prices around the low‑$80s represent an attractive entry point versus consensus targets in the $120s–$130s.
- Bear case:
- the Q2 miss and cautious FY2026 guide mark the beginning of a longer period of slower growth and lower margins;
- tariff and cost pressures persist longer than expected;
- high leverage and rich valuation leave little room for error;
- insider selling and year‑to‑date underperformance signal that the risk‑reward is still skewed to the downside.
Bottom line
As of December 7, 2025, ELF stock is a high‑growth, high‑volatility beauty play caught between two narratives: one that sees a structurally advantaged digital‑first brand house temporarily tripped up by tariffs and a tough macro backdrop, and another that sees a richly valued growth darling finally colliding with earnings reality.
What is clear from the latest data is that:
- The business is still growing solidly,
- Margins and guidance have disappointed,
- Analysts and models still see substantial upside,
- Risk—both fundamental and sentiment‑driven—remains elevated.
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. investor.elfbeauty.com, 3. www.nasdaq.com, 4. investor.elfbeauty.com, 5. simplywall.st, 6. stockanalysis.com, 7. www.nasdaq.com, 8. stockanalysis.com, 9. investor.elfbeauty.com, 10. investor.elfbeauty.com, 11. investor.elfbeauty.com, 12. investor.elfbeauty.com, 13. investor.elfbeauty.com, 14. www.investing.com, 15. www.nasdaq.com, 16. www.nasdaq.com, 17. www.nasdaq.com, 18. www.nasdaq.com, 19. stockanalysis.com, 20. www.marketbeat.com, 21. stockanalysis.com, 22. stockanalysis.com, 23. finviz.com, 24. www.marketbeat.com, 25. www.marketbeat.com, 26. www.tradingview.com, 27. simplywall.st, 28. www.tradingview.com, 29. investor.elfbeauty.com, 30. simplywall.st, 31. simplywall.st, 32. simplywall.st, 33. investor.elfbeauty.com, 34. investor.elfbeauty.com, 35. investor.elfbeauty.com, 36. www.nasdaq.com, 37. investor.elfbeauty.com, 38. investor.elfbeauty.com, 39. www.marketbeat.com, 40. stockanalysis.com, 41. www.nasdaq.com, 42. stockanalysis.com, 43. simplywall.st
