Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE: LLY) is once again in the spotlight. As of early trading on December 9, 2025, Eli Lilly stock is hovering around $997 per share, roughly 10% below its late‑November all‑time high but still up about 30% year to date and about 25% over the past 12 months. [1]
Today’s story is about more than the share price: fresh Phase 3 cancer data for Jaypirca, the completed acquisition of Adverum, a higher 2026 dividend, Nobel laureate Carolyn Bertozzi rejoining the board, and an ongoing price reset for blockbuster obesity drug Zepbound. Together they reshape how investors are thinking about Eli Lilly’s growth, risk, and valuation. [2]
Key Takeaways for LLY Stock Today
- Share price & valuation: LLY trades near $997, about 10% below its record high of $1,111.99, with a roughly $930–940 billion market cap and a forward P/E in the low‑40s based on 2025 guidance. [3]
- New cancer data: Phase 3 results show Jaypirca (pirtobrutinib) cut the risk of disease progression or death by ~80% versus standard chemoimmunotherapy in previously untreated CLL/SLL, positioning it as a potential new frontline standard of care. [4]
- Adverum acquisition closes: Lilly completed its tender offer for Adverum Biotechnologies, adding Phase 3 gene therapy Ixo‑vec for wet age‑related macular degeneration and expanding its ophthalmology and gene therapy footprint. [5]
- Capital returns & governance: The board boosted the quarterly dividend 15% to $1.73 per share starting Q1 2026 and brought Nobel Prize–winning chemist Carolyn Bertozzi back to the board, underscoring both shareholder rewards and science‑driven strategy. [6]
- GLP‑1 price cuts and growth: Lilly is cutting Zepbound cash prices by up to ~20% on LillyDirect to broaden access while GLP‑1 demand drives explosive growth; Q3 revenue surged 54% year over year to $17.6 billion, led by Zepbound and Mounjaro, and full‑year 2025 revenue guidance is now $63–63.5 billion. [7]
- Street view: After a five‑year surge of more than 600%, Wall Street still rates Eli Lilly a “Moderate Buy” with an average price target of about $1,087, implying high‑single‑digit upside from current levels. [8]
LLY Stock Snapshot: Near $1,000 After a Historic Run
Market data this morning show Eli Lilly trading around $997.59, down about 1.3% from the prior close. [9]
Key metrics investors are watching:
- Market capitalization: ≈ $930–940 billion, putting Lilly among the world’s most valuable healthcare companies. [10]
- 52‑week range:$623.78 low (August 8, 2025) to $1,111.99 high (November 26, 2025). [11]
- 12‑month total return: ≈ 25%, with a roughly 30% gain year‑to‑date. [12]
- Valuation: Trailing P/E around 49, PEG near 1.1, and beta well below 1, reflecting both rich growth expectations and defensive characteristics. [13]
On consensus 2025 non‑GAAP EPS guidance of $23.00–$23.70, the stock trades at roughly 43× mid‑point earnings, a premium even among high‑growth large‑cap pharma names. [14]
Fresh Catalyst #1: Jaypirca’s 80% Risk Reduction in Front‑Line CLL/SLL
The biggest clinical headline today is Jaypirca (pirtobrutinib), Lilly’s non‑covalent BTK inhibitor already approved for certain relapsed or refractory leukemias and lymphomas.
What the new data show
In the Phase 3 BRUIN CLL‑313 trial, pirtobrutinib was compared head‑to‑head with standard bendamustine plus rituximab (BR) in treatment‑naïve CLL/SLL without del(17p). The trial enrolled 282 patients, randomized 1:1 to pirtobrutinib monotherapy or BR, with crossover to pirtobrutinib allowed after progression. [15]
Key efficacy readouts:
- Pirtobrutinib reduced the risk of disease progression or death by ~80% versus BR (hazard ratio about 0.20, p<0.0001). [16]
- 24‑month progression‑free survival (PFS):
- ~93% on pirtobrutinib vs ~71% on BR. [17]
- Early overall‑survival signals favored pirtobrutinib despite more than half of BR‑arm patients crossing over after progression. [18]
Safety looked consistent with earlier Jaypirca data, with a differentiated profile versus first‑generation covalent BTK inhibitors, including fewer cardiac events like atrial fibrillation in the data presented. [19]
What it means for the stock
This trial is important for several reasons:
- It opens the door for front‑line use in CLL/SLL, expanding the addressable population beyond relapsed patients.
- It reinforces Lilly’s push into hematology/oncology, diversifying away from its GLP‑1 and Alzheimer’s reliance.
- The magnitude of benefit (80% risk reduction) is among the strongest reported for a BTK inhibitor in first‑line CLL, strengthening Jaypirca’s competitive case. [20]
Investors will now watch for regulatory filings to broaden Jaypirca’s label and for updated revenue forecasts from analysts post‑ASH data.
Fresh Catalyst #2: Adverum Deal Closes, Eyeing “One‑and‑Done” Eye Gene Therapy
Eli Lilly also confirmed the expiration and completion of its tender offer for Adverum Biotechnologies, with the merger expected to close today. [21]
Deal structure in focus
- Tender offer priced at $3.56 per share in cash plus contingent value rights (CVRs) worth up to $8.91 per share if regulatory and commercial milestones are met, for a total potential value of $12.47 per share and up to $261.7 million in consideration. [22]
- About 64% of Adverum shares were validly tendered by expiration just after 11:59 p.m. ET on December 8, 2025; the remaining shares will be acquired via a follow‑on merger, and Adverum will be delisted from Nasdaq. [23]
Strategic rationale
Adverum brings:
- Lead program Ixo‑vec (ixoberogene soroparvovec), a Phase 3 intravitreal gene therapy for wet age‑related macular degeneration (wAMD), designed as a single injection that could replace frequent anti‑VEGF injections. [24]
- A platform for office‑based gene therapy delivery using proprietary AAV.7m8 capsids targeting retinal diseases. [25]
Analysts covering the transaction have suggested that if successful, Ixo‑vec could reach around $1.3 billion in annual global sales by 2033, supporting the case that the relatively modest purchase price buys significant optionality. [26]
The Adverum deal follows Lilly’s recent ophthalmology gene‑therapy collaboration with MeiraGTx for a rare inherited retinal disease, reinforcing a pattern: management is clearly building a gene‑therapy‑based eye‑care franchise alongside its GLP‑1, Alzheimer’s, and oncology pillars. [27]
Fresh Catalyst #3: Dividend Hike and a Nobel Laureate Returns to the Board
Higher 2026 dividend
On December 8, Lilly’s board declared a first‑quarter 2026 dividend of $1.73 per share, payable March 10, 2026 to shareholders of record on February 13. [28]
That’s up from the previous quarterly dividend of $1.50, a roughly 15% increase, taking the annualized payout to $6.92 and implying a forward dividend yield of about 0.7% at current prices and a payout ratio near 29%.
While the yield is modest, the size of the hike is another signal that management expects sustained cash‑flow growth from GLP‑1 and other franchises.
Carolyn Bertozzi rejoins
Lilly also announced that Carolyn R. Bertozzi, Ph.D., Nobel Prize–winning chemist and Stanford professor, has rejoined its board of directors, effective December 8, 2025. She will serve on the Science & Technology and Ethics & Compliance committees.
Bertozzi previously served on Lilly’s board from 2017 to 2021 and is widely recognized for her work in bioorthogonal chemistry and targeted therapeutics, areas directly relevant to Lilly’s oncology and immunology pipeline.
For investors, her return underscores Lilly’s science‑first identity even as it navigates massive commercial scale.
GLP‑1 Engine: Zepbound Price Cuts, Mounjaro in China, and Orforglipron
Q3 2025: A GLP‑1‑driven earnings blowout
In late October, Lilly reported Q3 2025 revenue of $17.6 billion, up 54% year on year, driven primarily by its incretin portfolio Zepbound (obesity and sleep‑apnea) and Mounjaro (type 2 diabetes).
Non‑GAAP EPS jumped to $7.02, about 9% above consensus estimates, and management raised full‑year 2025 guidance to:
- Revenue: $63.0–$63.5 billion
- Reported EPS: $21.80–$22.50
- Non‑GAAP EPS: $23.00–$23.70
FiercePharma’s breakdown highlighted that Zepbound and Mounjaro together generated about $10.1 billion in Q3 sales, surpassing Merck’s Keytruda for the quarter and making tirzepatide arguably the world’s top‑grossing drug already.
Zepbound price cuts: Margin pressure, volume upside
On December 1, Lilly cut the cash price of Zepbound vials sold via its LillyDirect platform, lowering the 2.5 mg dose to $299 per month (from $349), the 5 mg dose to $399 (from $499), and higher doses to $449 (previously $499) under its Self Pay Journey program.
This comes alongside a broader deal with the U.S. government to cap GLP‑1 prices for Medicare and other public programs beginning in 2026, and follows prior price cuts on multi‑dose pens.
Implications for LLY stock:
- Near‑term: Slight pressure on obesity‑drug margins and sentiment (shares dropped a few percent on the news).
- Medium‑term: Potentially faster volume growth and improved access, which could offset lower unit pricing if obesity treatment adoption accelerates.
Zacks analysts recently argued that GLP‑1 adoption is still early, and that rising penetration could nearly double Lilly’s total revenue by 2030, even as pricing comes down.
Mounjaro in China: Big market, tighter pricing
Another key GLP‑1 milestone: China has moved toward reimbursed access for Mounjaro for type 2 diabetes via its national reimbursement drug list (NRDL), setting up a substantial new volume opportunity but at more constrained prices than in the U.S.
The Seeking Alpha analysis notes:
- Strong potential for volumes in a huge diabetic population,
- Risks around pricing, local competition, and regulatory uncertainty,
- A longer‑term path to expand into obesity and sleep‑apnea indications in China.
Orforglipron: Oral GLP‑1 filing near
In Q3, Lilly also reported positive results in four Phase 3 trials of its oral GLP‑1, orforglipron, across obesity and type 2 diabetes, with plans to file for global obesity approval by year‑end 2025.
Orforglipron posted double‑digit placebo‑adjusted weight loss in pivotal trials but with somewhat higher discontinuation rates than some emerging oral competitors, leaving room for differentiation battles in the late‑2020s obesity landscape.
Rising competition in obesity
Barron’s and others have highlighted how Structure Therapeutics and WAVE Life Sciences posted eye‑catching early obesity data this week, knocking Lilly and Novo Nordisk shares lower as investors factor in future competition from oral and gene‑based therapies.
The takeaway: Lilly remains the dominant GLP‑1 player today, but the obesity moat is shrinking at the edges, reinforcing the importance of pipeline breadth (orforglipron, gene therapy, oncology, Alzheimer’s) for the stock’s long‑term story.
Alzheimer’s Franchise: Kisunla Gains Ground
Lilly’s Alzheimer’s drug Kisunla (donanemab) is another critical growth pillar investors are tracking.
EU approval and label nuances
In late September, the European Commission approved Kisunla for early symptomatic Alzheimer’s after an earlier negative opinion, but with label restrictions: the drug is indicated for mild cognitive impairment or mild dementia due to Alzheimer’s, and only in patients without two copies of the ApoE4 risk gene (either zero or one copy).
Key points from European coverage:
- Kisunla is among the first disease‑modifying Alzheimer’s antibodies to reach the EU market.
- Phase III data showed it slowed cognitive and functional decline versus placebo, with patients treated earlier seeing better outcomes.
- Long‑term extension data indicated a ~27% reduction in risk of progression to more advanced disease stages in some patients treated earlier.
- Analysts at GlobalData have projected Kisunla could reach about $2 billion in annual sales by 2030 across major global markets, though pricing and payer acceptance remain key swing factors.
In the U.S., the FDA also recently updated Kisunla’s label to refine dosing and monitoring in early symptomatic Alzheimer’s, aiming to optimize efficacy and manage the risk of ARIA (amyloid‑related imaging abnormalities).
For the stock, Kisunla adds another multi‑billion‑dollar option on top of GLP‑1 — but with higher clinical and reimbursement risk, and a more gradual commercial ramp.
Financials, Street Forecasts and Valuation Debate
Q3 results and guidance
Putting it together, Q3 2025 was one of Lilly’s strongest quarters ever:
- Revenue: $17.6 billion (+54% YoY)
- Non‑GAAP EPS: $7.02 (vs. $1.18 a year earlier)
- EPS beat: roughly 9% vs. consensus; revenue beat by a similar margin.
- Guidance (2025):
- Revenue $63.0–$63.5 billion
- Non‑GAAP EPS $23.00–$23.70
Industry analyses now often position Lilly as a front‑runner to lead global pharma revenue by 2026, thanks largely to GLP‑1 growth and pipeline breadth.
Free‑cash‑flow and long‑term forecasts
A widely cited Yahoo Finance analysis argues that free cash flow could reach roughly $37–38 billion by 2029, driven by obesity, diabetes, Alzheimer’s and oncology launches.
Zacks and other research houses see GLP‑1 adoption nearly doubling total revenue by 2030, assuming sustained penetration into obesity, diabetes, and related indications worldwide.
Analyst ratings and price targets
According to MarketBeat’s synthesis:
- About 26 analysts currently cover Lilly.
- Ratings skew strongly positive: multiple “Strong Buy” calls, 17 “Buy,” and a handful of “Hold” ratings.
- Average price target: roughly $1,087 per share.
- That implies high single‑digit upside from the ~$997 trading level – modest for a stock that’s gained over 600% in five years, but still positive given its mega‑cap status.
Some commentary also flags Lilly as a candidate for a stock split in 2026 if shares remain near or above the $1,000 mark, citing comparisons to recent high‑profile tech and media splits.
Risks Investors Should Watch
Despite the excitement, LLY is not risk‑free. Key downside factors:
- Competition in obesity & diabetes
- New entrants like Structure Therapeutics (oral GLP‑1s) and WAVE Life Sciences (gene‑modulating obesity approaches) are showing promising early data.
- Novo Nordisk remains a formidable rival with its own next‑generation GLP‑1 and amylin programs.
- Pricing and political risk
- Zepbound price cuts on LillyDirect and the multi‑year deal with the U.S. government to lower GLP‑1 costs signal a more regulated pricing environment ahead, especially for obesity therapies.
- Internationally, health‑technology assessment agencies (like NICE in the U.K.) have already pushed back on some high‑priced therapies, including Kisunla, on cost‑effectiveness grounds.
- Pipeline & safety risk
- Alzheimer’s antibodies carry ARIA risks, and real‑world tolerability could limit Kisunla uptake or trigger label changes.
- GLP‑1 drugs face ongoing scrutiny over rare side effects and long‑term safety in broader populations.
- Valuation & sentiment
- At ~43× 2025 EPS and near a trillion‑dollar valuation, sentiment shifts or modest disappointments in GLP‑1 growth, Alzheimer’s uptake, or oncology launches could hit the multiple hard, even if fundamentals remain strong.
Bottom Line: How Does LLY Look After Today’s News?
Bull case:
- LLY has multiple franchise‑level growth engines (GLP‑1, Alzheimer’s, oncology, gene therapy) firing at once.
- Today’s Jaypirca data and Adverum closing add incremental long‑term revenue potential and further diversify the growth story.
- The dividend hike and Nobel‑level board appointment signal confidence in durable cash flows and continued scientific leadership.
Bear case:
- GLP‑1 growth, while massive, is attracting intense competition and political scrutiny, and price cuts are already starting to bite.
- Kisunla and other high‑profile launches still face reimbursement, safety and infrastructure hurdles.
- The stock’s premium valuation leaves little room for execution missteps.
For long‑term‑oriented investors comfortable with biotech and policy risk, Lilly remains one of the most powerful growth stories in global healthcare — but at a price that demands continued near‑flawless execution.
For others, today’s news flow might support a “watch‑list” or “hold” stance rather than aggressive new buying, especially after the multi‑year rally. As always, any decision should be based on your own financial goals, risk tolerance, time horizon, and, ideally, independent professional advice.
Quick FAQ on Eli Lilly Stock (LLY) – December 9, 2025
Why is Eli Lilly stock moving today?
Because of new Phase 3 data for Jaypirca in front‑line CLL/SLL, the completed Adverum acquisition, and ongoing discussion around GLP‑1 price cuts and dividend increases, all of which feed into updated growth and valuation expectations.
What is the latest on Lilly’s obesity drugs?
Zepbound and Mounjaro generated about $10.1 billion in Q3 sales, and Lilly has just cut Zepbound cash prices on its direct‑to‑consumer platform to $299–$449 per month to expand access, even as it prepares to launch oral GLP‑1 orforglipron and expand Mounjaro in markets like China.
Does Eli Lilly pay a dividend?
Yes. Beginning in Q1 2026, Lilly plans to pay a $1.73 quarterly dividend ($6.92 annualized), up from $1.50, for a yield around 0.7% at current prices.
What is Wall Street’s consensus on LLY?
Analysts generally rate Lilly a “Moderate Buy”, with an average price target near $1,087, reflecting cautious optimism after a spectacular multi‑year run.
References
1. www.financecharts.com, 2. www.prnewswire.com, 3. www.marketbeat.com, 4. www.prnewswire.com, 5. www.prnewswire.com, 6. www.prnewswire.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.marketbeat.com, 9. www.financecharts.com, 10. www.marketbeat.com, 11. www.marketbeat.com, 12. www.financecharts.com, 13. www.marketbeat.com, 14. www.prnewswire.com, 15. nursing.onclive.com, 16. www.prnewswire.com, 17. nursing.onclive.com, 18. nursing.onclive.com, 19. www.managedhealthcareexecutive.com, 20. www.rttnews.com, 21. www.prnewswire.com, 22. www.streetinsider.com, 23. www.streetinsider.com, 24. investors.adverum.com, 25. adverum.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.prnewswire.com
