Published: November 30, 2025
Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE: LLY) heads into Monday’s session after one of the most consequential months in its history: a brief stint above a $1 trillion market value, a huge November rally powered by obesity drugs, and a late‑month pullback as investors digest aggressive US drug‑pricing deals and sky‑high valuations.
With US markets closed over the weekend, there is no pre‑market quote yet for Monday, December 1. But Friday’s close, fresh analyst notes, and a burst of policy and pipeline headlines from November 28–30 set the stage for how LLY could trade when the bell rings.
Where Eli Lilly stock stands heading into December
As of the close on Friday, November 28, 2025, Eli Lilly shares finished at $1,075.47, down 2.61% on the day, after trading between $1,067.69 and $1,099.05 in a shortened post‑Thanksgiving session. After‑hours trading nudged the stock slightly lower to about $1,074.40. Over the last 52 weeks, LLY has traded from roughly $623.78 to $1,111.99. [1]
Even after Friday’s dip, Lilly’s rally this year remains dramatic:
- ~39% gain year‑to‑date for 2025, according to market recap data from Investopedia. [2]
- A November surge of roughly 26–31%, depending on methodology:
On November 21, Lilly briefly became the first pharmaceutical company ever to reach a $1 trillion market capitalization, a club previously dominated by mega‑cap technology names. [5]
That backdrop — a huge run, a trillion‑dollar valuation and fresh political scrutiny — is exactly what investors are weighing before Monday’s open.
Key Eli Lilly news from November 28–30, 2025
1. November 28: Hot stock cools in shortened trading
Friday’s market action
A widely read S&P 500 recap from Investopedia highlighted Lilly as one of the notable losers in Friday’s otherwise positive, half‑day session. Major US indices rose — the S&P 500 gained 0.5% and the Dow 0.6% — but LLY slid 2.6%, giving back part of its recent surge after becoming the first healthcare name to top a $1 trillion valuation. [6]
Despite the downtick, the same report notes that Lilly shares remain up roughly 39% in 2025, underpinned by explosive demand for its GLP‑1 weight‑loss drugs. [7]
Search interest and momentum
Zacks, via a Zacks.com note syndicated on Finviz, flagged Eli Lilly as one of the most heavily searched stocks on its platform on November 28. Key points from that piece: [8]
- LLY returned about +30.8% over the past month, versus a ‑0.8% move in the broader Zacks S&P 500 composite.
- The large‑cap pharma peer group gained about 12.6% over the same period, meaning Lilly has outpaced both its sector and the wider market.
- The article frames the core investor question now as “what’s next?” given the steep run‑up and new political and competitive risks.
November scorecard pieces
On the same day, a TipRanks column looked back at Lilly’s performance in November, estimating a 30.77% gain for the month and naming LLY “a top performer in the benchmark S&P 500 index.” The article highlights: [9]
- Third‑quarter 2025 EPS of $7.02 vs. a consensus $5.69, a sizable beat.
- Revenue heavily driven by Mounjaro and Zepbound, Lilly’s diabetes and obesity blockbusters, with combined quarterly sales above $10 billion.
- A Strong Buy consensus rating based on 18 Buy and 2 Hold recommendations, but an average 12‑month price target of about $1,035, implying modest downside from current levels after the rally.
Taken together, November 28 coverage paints a picture of short‑term profit‑taking in a stock that has dramatically outperformed both its sector and the broader market.
2. November 29: Weekend coverage focuses on S&P ranking, politics and valuation
Lilly crowned one of November’s S&P 500 winners
Barron’s published its monthly “best and worst S&P 500 stocks” feature over the weekend. For November 2025 it reports: [10]
- The S&P 500 slipped about 0.4% for the month, marking its weakest November since 2021.
- Eli Lilly jumped roughly 26.5%, placing it among the top gainers in the index.
- The article links Lilly’s move to the November drug‑pricing deal with the Trump administration, under which GLP‑1 weight‑loss medicines like Zepbound are set to be covered for Medicare obesity patients under new terms, and notes that this helped Lilly become the first healthcare firm above $1 trillion in market value.
Deep‑dive on the pullback and TrumpRx deal
A long‑form analysis on TS2 Tech, dated November 29, frames Lilly’s 2–3% late‑month decline as “normal profit‑taking” after a 30%+ November rally and the trillion‑dollar milestone. It emphasizes several themes that matter for Monday’s open: TS2 Tech+2lilly.gcs-web.com+2
- TrumpRx & Most‑Favored‑Nation pricing:
- Under deals announced with the Trump administration, Lilly and Novo Nordisk agreed to “most‑favored‑nation” (MFN) pricing on key GLP‑1 drugs.
- Cash‑paying US patients will be able to buy products such as Zepbound for roughly $346 per month via a new TrumpRx platform, down from list prices around $1,000–$1,350.
- For Medicare and Medicaid, prices are locked around $245 per month, with Medicare beneficiaries’ copays generally capped near $50 once coverage begins. [11]
- Future oral GLP‑1 pills, including Lilly’s orforglipron, are expected to debut near $150 per month under the same framework if approved. [12]
- Valuation tension:
- Independent valuation services and sell‑side analysts peg Lilly’s P/E ratio around the low‑50s on a forward basis and near 70x trailing earnings, far above typical pharma peers. TS2 Tech+1
- Wall Street price targets cluster just below the current stock price — around $1,035–$1,047 per share, depending on the survey — suggesting limited near‑term upside at today’s levels. [13]
- Policy vs. volume trade‑off:
- Commentators argue that while Lilly will earn less per prescription, sharply lower pricing and explicit Medicare coverage could massively expand the addressable patient pool, potentially offsetting the margin hit over time. [14]
Overall tone: fundamentals still look strong, but policy, concentration and valuation risks are increasingly front‑and‑center for investors.
Retail investor angle: “Millionaire maker?”
Motley Fool (accessible via snippet) ran a weekend feature asking whether Eli Lilly could be a “millionaire‑maker” stock, noting that: [15]
- Lilly has agreed to lower prices on its blockbuster GLP‑1 drugs under federal deals.
- More than half of the company’s revenue now comes from just a couple of obesity/diabetes products, underscoring both the power and the risk of the GLP‑1 franchise.
Though we couldn’t access the full article, the available summary underscores the central retail‑investor debate: can a richly valued, highly concentrated, policy‑sensitive pharma giant still compound wealth over decades?
3. November 30: Institutional buying, earnings quality and analyst stance
Sunday brought fresh filings‑driven coverage of institutional ownership in LLY.
Two separate MarketBeat items — one highlighting Leslie Global Wealth LLC and another VestGen Advisors LLC — show wealth managers increasing their stakes in Eli Lilly. In the VestGen piece, for example, the firm reports boosting its holdings by 21.7% in Q2 to 17,270 shares, worth about $13.45 million at the time of filing. [16]
More important for Monday’s outlook are the fundamental and valuation stats repeated in these notes and in MarketBeat’s broader “Trillion‑Dollar Pill” feature: [17]
- Market capitalization: roughly $1.0–1.02 trillion at recent prices.
- P/E ratio: around 70x trailing earnings, with forward multiples still in the mid‑40s.
- Beta: about 0.43, signalling lower volatility than the overall market despite the recent momentum.
- Dividend:
- Annual dividend $6.00 per share (roughly $1.50 quarterly),
- Yield ~0.6%,
- About 11 consecutive years of dividend increases, with a payout ratio near 29%. [18]
- Q3 2025 earnings quality:
- Revenue of $17.6 billion, up roughly 54% year‑over‑year.
- Growth driven by about 62% higher sales volume, while realized prices fell around 10%, indicating a deliberate push toward mass‑market adoption rather than price hikes. [19]
- EPS of $7.02 beat consensus estimates (around $6.42–$5.69 depending on source). [20]
On the analyst side, these pieces summarise a broad but not unanimous bullish stance:
- MarketBeat tallies about 3 “Strong Buy,” 15 “Buy” and 7 “Hold” ratings, for an overall “Moderate Buy” consensus and an average price target near $1,047.50. [21]
- TipRanks’ sample skews more positive, with a Strong Buy consensus and average target around $1,035, modestly below the latest close. [22]
Net message for investors before Monday: Wall Street broadly likes the business, but many see the stock as fairly valued to slightly overextended after its run.
Big picture drivers: GLP‑1 drugs, pricing deals and the next wave of obesity treatments
GLP‑1 demand and Q3 results
Lilly’s recent earnings and external analyses point to one core driver: GLP‑1 medicines for diabetes and obesity.
MarketBeat’s deep‑dive highlights that in Q3 2025: [23]
- Overall revenue rose 54% year‑over‑year to $17.6 billion, driven primarily by volume rather than price.
- Mounjaro (diabetes) generated around $6.52 billion in quarterly sales, roughly double the prior year.
- Zepbound (obesity) contributed about $3.59 billion.
This “volume over price” strategy, combined with aggressive manufacturing investments in the US, Puerto Rico and Europe, is central to the bullish long‑term thesis. [24]
TrumpRx, Medicare coverage and long‑term economics
The November drug‑pricing agreements between the Trump administration, Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk sit at the heart of recent headlines and will likely remain a key talking point into Monday’s pre‑market.
From official fact sheets and policy analyses: [25]
- Cash‑pay prices via the new TrumpRx platform are expected to start around:
- $350/month for injectables like Ozempic, Wegovy and Zepbound,
- Drifting toward $245/month over two years.
- Medicare and Medicaid prices for these drugs are locked near $245/month, with beneficiaries typically facing copays capped around $50/month for obesity indications.
- If the FDA approves oral GLP‑1 pills such as Lilly’s orforglipron, their starting prices under TrumpRx are expected to be around $149–$150/month, substantially below today’s list prices for injectables.
At the same time, Medicare is moving toward broader coverage of GLP‑1 obesity drugs from 2026 onward, which could meaningfully expand demand among seniors. [26]
For Lilly, the trade‑off going into December looks like this:
- Positives: Much larger insured patient population, clearer reimbursement, and a head start in manufacturing scale.
- Negatives: Lower per‑dose pricing, more political scrutiny and higher dependence on federal policy decisions.
This policy overhang is one of the main reasons commentators describe Lilly as both high‑quality and high‑risk at current valuations.
Pipeline and “Ozempic 2.0”
Recent features in mainstream and regional media outline the next generation of obesity treatments, in which Lilly is again a central player.
Coverage in outlets like The Washington Post, CT Insider and the New York Post notes that: [27]
- Lilly’s daily oral GLP‑1 pill orforglipron has shown around 11–13% average weight loss (about 12.4% in one 72‑week trial), with a planned regulatory submission targeting 2026.
- Experimental injectables like retatrutide have delivered weight‑loss in the 20%+ range in trials, approaching or exceeding current GLP‑1 standards.
- Oral options are expected to be cheaper, easier to store and more convenient than injections, even if they’re slightly less potent on average.
While these drugs are not imminent 2025 catalysts, they underpin many analysts’ multi‑year growth models, which is part of why investors are willing to pay software‑style multiples for a pharma name.
What to watch before the December 1 opening bell
Because markets are closed as of Sunday evening, there is no real‑time pre‑market quote yet for LLY on December 1, 2025. Any pre‑market move will reflect how investors digest the narratives above plus Monday’s broader macro backdrop.
Here are the main factors market participants are likely to watch ahead of the open:
1. Futures and sentiment in high‑multiple growth stocks
- Lilly now trades with a growth‑stock multiple and has become a large component of major indices. Moves in index futures and risk‑on/risk‑off sentiment could amplify its early‑session volatility.
- Tech and AI names led many of November’s swings; any renewed rotation into or out of high‑multiple growth could pull LLY along for the ride, even though it’s a healthcare stock.
2. Follow‑through on the TrumpRx and GLP‑1 pricing story
- Additional commentary from policymakers, payers, or advocacy groups over the weekend or on Monday morning could sway sentiment.
- Investors will be weighing whether the volume opportunity from cheaper, widely covered GLP‑1s truly outweighs the margin compression implied by MFN‑style pricing.
3. Competitive updates from Novo Nordisk and others
- Recent coverage of Novo Nordisk’s trial setbacks in Alzheimer’s disease indirectly highlights Lilly’s competing Alzheimer’s drug, Kisunla, and the broader neurodegenerative pipeline. [28]
- Any new data, regulatory decisions or capacity announcements from rivals could influence how investors view Lilly’s durable advantage in obesity and metabolic disease.
4. Analyst commentary and target revisions
- After such a large move, it would not be surprising to see Wall Street price‑target tweaks or new reports early in the week.
- Given that average targets sit slightly below the current share price, investors will watch for any upgrades, downgrades or major target hikes as clues to whether the Street believes there’s still further upside in the near term. [29]
5. Technical levels and profit‑taking
- Friday’s high near $1,099 and the recent all‑time high around $1,112 will be important resistance zones for short‑term traders. [30]
- A sustained break below the $1,050–$1,070 area could be read as deeper profit‑taking after a parabolic month, while a quick reclaim of the highs would reinforce the “buy‑the‑dip in GLP‑1 winners” narrative.
Bottom line: How LLY looks before Monday’s open
Heading into December 1, 2025, Eli Lilly sits at a crossroads:
- Fundamentals remain exceptionally strong, with blockbuster GLP‑1 drugs driving record revenue growth and a deep obesity and metabolic‑disease pipeline that could extend that trajectory into the 2030s. [31]
- The company has cemented its place as the first trillion‑dollar pharma, supported by aggressive investment in manufacturing and AI‑enabled drug discovery. [32]
- At the same time, policy and valuation risks are rising: GLP‑1 pricing deals with the US government will lower per‑dose revenue, the business is highly dependent on a handful of products, and the stock’s multiple is far above historical pharma norms. [33]
For traders and longer‑term investors alike, Monday’s pre‑market narrative is likely to revolve around a simple question:
Has Eli Lilly’s stock already priced in the GLP‑1 revolution — or is the market only just beginning to recognise how big this story could become?
As always, this article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Any decision to buy, sell or hold Eli Lilly shares should consider your own objectives, risk tolerance and portfolio diversification, ideally in consultation with a qualified financial adviser.
References
1. www.investing.com, 2. www.investopedia.com, 3. finviz.com, 4. www.barrons.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.investopedia.com, 7. www.investopedia.com, 8. finviz.com, 9. www.tipranks.com, 10. www.barrons.com, 11. www.investors.com, 12. www.asge.org, 13. www.tipranks.com, 14. www.investors.com, 15. www.fool.com, 16. www.marketbeat.com, 17. www.marketbeat.com, 18. www.marketbeat.com, 19. www.marketbeat.com, 20. www.marketbeat.com, 21. www.marketbeat.com, 22. www.tipranks.com, 23. www.marketbeat.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.whitehouse.gov, 26. www.kiplinger.com, 27. www.washingtonpost.com, 28. www.investors.com, 29. www.marketbeat.com, 30. www.investing.com, 31. www.marketbeat.com, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. www.investors.com
