December 23, 2025 — Eli Lilly and Company stock (NYSE: LLY) is holding near record territory as investors digest a fresh twist in the weight-loss drug race: the FDA has cleared Novo Nordisk’s first oral version of Wegovy, intensifying competition right as Lilly pushes its own once-daily pill candidate, orforglipron, toward a potential 2026 approval.
As of 15:11 UTC on Tuesday, LLY traded around $1,077, slightly above the prior close, after moving between roughly $1,057 and $1,088 during the session.
The backdrop is simple but powerful: the obesity market is expanding fast, and the “next chapter” is about convenience, supply, and pricing—moving beyond injections into pills that could reach millions of new patients. Reuters notes analysts see obesity treatments building toward a market on the order of $150 billion annually by next decade, with pills potentially capturing a meaningful slice by 2030. [1]
Why Eli Lilly stock is in focus on December 23
1) FDA approval of Novo’s Wegovy pill adds near-term pressure—and a bigger long-term market
Reuters reported that the FDA approved a 25 mg oral semaglutide (sold under the Wegovy brand) for chronic weight management, giving Novo Nordisk a first-to-market advantage in oral obesity drugs. In a late-stage study cited by Reuters, participants taking the 25 mg dose lost an average of 16.6% of body weight over 64 weeks (versus 2.7% for placebo). [2]
The Associated Press, citing a clinical trial, reported average weight loss of 13.6% over about 15 months for oral Wegovy (versus 2.2% for placebo), highlighting that results can vary by trial design and population. [3]
What matters for Lilly stock today is not just efficacy—it’s the competitive positioning in an increasingly consumerized market where many patients prefer to avoid injections. Reuters explicitly framed the approval as a way for Novo to try to regain ground it has lost to Lilly in obesity. [4]
2) Pricing signals are shifting the conversation from “breakthrough” to “access”
Reuters reported that Novo and Lilly have agreed to offer starter doses of their weight-loss pills at $149 per month for Medicare/Medicaid programs and for cash-paying customers via the Trump administration’s direct-to-consumer TrumpRx site—an important signal that the next phase of the GLP‑1 race could hinge on affordability and volume. [5]
On top of that, Reuters noted Novo recently cut the cash price of injectable Wegovy to $349 per month (from $499), while list prices remain around $1,000+ per month. [6]
For Lilly investors, this reinforces a key question for 2026: how fast can the market expand if prices fall and pill manufacturing scales—and what happens to margins if competition forces broader discounting?
Orforglipron: the next major catalyst for LLY stock in 2026
The immediate counterpoint for Lilly shareholders is that LLY’s own oral contender, orforglipron, is not just “another GLP‑1 pill”—it’s being positioned as a more flexible daily option.
A key differentiation: “no dosing restrictions”
Reuters highlighted that Novo’s oral semaglutide must be taken in the morning on an empty stomach, with a wait before eating or taking other oral medications, while Lilly’s pill does not have those restrictions. [7]
AP similarly emphasized the contrast, describing the Wegovy pill’s empty-stomach routine and noting that Lilly’s orforglipron has no dosing restrictions, which could matter for adherence in real-world use. [8]
New data: maintaining weight loss after switching from injections
On December 18, Reuters reported new late-stage trial results suggesting orforglipron can help patients maintain weight loss after switching from injectable GLP‑1 therapies (including Wegovy and Lilly’s own Zepbound). Reuters reported an average weight difference versus placebo of 0.9 kg for those switching from Wegovy and 5 kg for those switching from Zepbound, over 52 weeks on the pill. [9]
Reuters also noted the FDA could decide on Lilly’s pill as early as March 28 if an expedited timeline is adopted—an acceleration that would meaningfully pull forward a major catalyst for LLY stock. [10]
In practical terms, investors are now weighing a “first mover” (Novo’s approved pill) against a potentially more user-friendly “fast follower” (Lilly’s orforglipron), and—crucially—whether the market becomes large enough that both can win.
The bigger driver: manufacturing capacity and supply discipline
Even the best-selling drug can’t generate revenue if it can’t be produced in sufficient volume. Supply has been one of the defining constraints of the GLP‑1 boom—and Lilly has been spending aggressively to ensure it doesn’t become the bottleneck.
Reuters reported in October that Lilly plans to invest more than $1.2 billion to expand its manufacturing site in Carolina, Puerto Rico, with the upgraded facility expected to help manufacture orforglipron (among other products). Construction is expected to begin in 2026, with oral-drug production planned by late 2028. [11]
Reuters also described this as part of a broader $50 billion push to expand U.S. manufacturing capacity. [12]
For LLY stock, these investments matter because they support the “durability” part of the valuation story: investors aren’t just pricing in today’s Mounjaro and Zepbound demand—they’re pricing in the company’s ability to deliver the next generation of pills at scale.
Earnings momentum: what Lilly has already put on the scoreboard
Lilly’s valuation debate often starts with one fact: growth has been unusually strong for a mega-cap pharmaceutical company.
A company release distributed via PR Newswire said Q3 2025 revenue rose 54% to $17.60 billion, driven by volume growth from Mounjaro and Zepbound, and that non-GAAP EPS increased to $7.02. The same release said Lilly raised full‑year 2025 guidance to $63.0–$63.5 billion in revenue and $23.00–$23.70 in non-GAAP EPS. [13]
Reuters independently reported the same raised revenue range and highlighted that Lilly’s quarterly results exceeded analyst expectations, reinforcing that demand for its metabolic franchise remains a central pillar of the bull thesis. [14]
In November, Reuters reported Lilly became the first drugmaker to reach a $1 trillion valuation, pointing to investor confidence in the longer-term durability of its metabolic health franchise. Reuters also reported that, in the latest reported quarter at the time, Lilly posted more than $10.09 billion in combined revenue from its obesity and diabetes portfolio—more than half of total revenue. [15]
Beyond GLP‑1s: diversification news investors are tracking
While weight loss dominates the headlines, Lilly’s stock story still benefits from pipeline and regulatory wins outside obesity.
Jaypirca: FDA grants traditional approval in CLL/SLL
The FDA reported that on December 3, 2025, it granted traditional approval to pirtobrutinib (Jaypirca) for adults with relapsed/refractory CLL/SLL who have previously been treated with a covalent BTK inhibitor. The FDA summary included a median progression-free survival of 11.2 months versus 8.7 months in the comparator arm. [16]
For stock investors, approvals like this matter because they reinforce Lilly’s broader earnings base—important in any scenario where GLP‑1 pricing becomes more competitive.
Kisunla: Europe watch remains part of the longer-term mix
Earlier in 2025, Reuters reported the European Medicines Agency recommended approval of Lilly’s Alzheimer’s drug Kisunla for certain early Alzheimer’s patients after an initial negative view, with the European Commission expected to make a regulatory decision in the following months. [17]
This isn’t the primary catalyst moving LLY day-to-day right now, but it remains part of the longer-term narrative that Lilly’s growth isn’t a single-product bet.
LLY stock forecast and analyst targets: “Strong Buy” ratings, but upside expectations vary
On December 23, “LLY stock forecast” searches show a market split between two realities:
- Analysts remain broadly positive, citing scale, execution, and the pipeline.
- The stock is already priced for excellence, so incremental upside depends on flawless delivery.
Here’s how the published target data looks today:
- MarketBeat’s compiled analyst data shows a consensus “Moderate Buy” and an average 12‑month price target around $1,155 (roughly mid‑single‑digit upside from late‑December prices). MarketBeat also references recent target increases from multiple firms in December. [18]
- StockAnalysis shows a consensus “Strong Buy” with an average price target near $1,084, implying a much tighter upside range from current levels—while still listing a wide distribution of targets (low $700, high $1,500). [19]
Why the difference? These tracker sites can vary by which analysts are included, how recently targets were updated, and whether they prioritize “top analysts” or broader coverage. The common thread is that targets remain elevated—but the market is no longer pricing in an easy, straight-line rally.
Valuation: LLY is expensive by traditional pharma standards
On valuation metrics, FinanceCharts listed Lilly’s trailing P/E around 52.67 as of December 22, with a forward P/E estimate around 27.17. [20]
That doesn’t automatically mean the stock must fall—fast growers can sustain high multiples—but it raises the bar for 2026 execution. In practice, it means Lilly stock can react sharply to any surprise in:
- pricing and reimbursement,
- supply and capacity buildout,
- safety and tolerability data,
- or the timing of key regulatory decisions.
What could move Eli Lilly stock next
Near-term (days to weeks)
- Market digestion of the Wegovy pill approval: The biggest immediate question is whether the pill expands the category more than it shifts share, and whether pricing programs become the standard across the industry. [21]
- Pipeline headlines and “pills versus shots” sentiment: Reuters has already highlighted how orforglipron’s convenience could narrow Novo’s first-mover advantage. [22]
Early 2026
- Orforglipron FDA timing: Reuters has reported the FDA could decide as early as March 28 if review is expedited. Any confirmation of timeline—or delays—could be a major catalyst for LLY stock. [23]
- Supply expansion execution: Investors will likely scrutinize whether Lilly’s manufacturing investments translate into steady availability as demand rises and competition grows. [24]
Wildcard: M&A chatter
In Europe, Reuters noted that French biotech Abivax surged amid renewed takeover speculation involving Eli Lilly, while also reporting Lilly’s stance that it does not comment on “business development activity.” [25]
This is not a confirmed deal—but it highlights that investors are watching Lilly not just as a seller of blockbuster drugs, but also as a potential buyer of pipeline assets.
Bottom line for investors watching LLY on December 23
Eli Lilly stock is navigating a classic “leader’s dilemma”: it’s one of the market’s most successful large-cap growth stories, but the higher the stock climbs, the more it needs new catalysts to justify the premium.
Today’s FDA approval of Novo’s Wegovy pill is a reminder that the obesity market is becoming broader—and more competitive—at the same time. Lilly’s near-term stock narrative now revolves around whether orforglipron can arrive quickly, scale cleanly, and compete on the factors patients care about most: simplicity, access, and cost.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. apnews.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. apnews.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.prnewswire.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.fda.gov, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.marketbeat.com, 19. stockanalysis.com, 20. www.financecharts.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com
