- Stock Rally: EVAX surged ~25% on Oct 14, 2025, to close around $7.84 [1]. (In pre-market Oct 15 it was ~$8.37.)
- Cancer Vaccine Data: Evaxion will present two-year Phase 2 data for its AI-designed melanoma vaccine (EVX-01) at the ESMO Congress Oct 17, 2025 [2]. The presentation will cover 2-year clinical efficacy, immunogenicity and safety, including best overall response, response durability, and T‑cell immune breadth [3].
- Major Partnership: In late Sept 2025, Merck (MSD) exercised its option on Evaxion’s infectious-disease vaccine EVX-B3, paying $7.5 million upfront and potential milestones up to $592 million [4]. This deal extends Evaxion’s cash runway into H1 2027 and leaves the EVX-B2 gonorrhea program under review (decision by H1 2026) with $2.5 million possible on exercise [5] [6].
- AI Platform Upgrade: The company rolled out a new automated vaccine-design module in its AI-Immunology™ platform (announced Oct 8, 2025) that speeds up vaccine design and improves quality [7]. Detailed validation data for the enhanced AI platform will be presented at World Vaccine Congress Europe on Oct 15, 2025 [8] [9].
- Analyst Outlook: EVAX is rated a “Strong Buy” by covering analysts. StockAnalysis.com reports 2 analysts with an average 12-month target of $11.0 (≈40% upside) [10]. TipRanks notes the most recent rating is Buy (target $6.00) [11]. However, TipRanks’ model cautions that “financial challenges” and high burn rate offset some optimism [12].
Evaxion’s stock jump in mid-October comes as the company lines up important clinical updates and validates its AI-driven vaccine technology. On Oct 13, Evaxion announced it will present two-year data from its Phase 2 trial of EVX-01 (a personalized cancer vaccine for advanced melanoma) at the ESMO Congress in Berlin [13]. The October presentation (oral session Oct 17, webinar Oct 22) will cover efficacy, immunogenicity, safety, best overall response, and T‑cell response durability of EVX-01 plus Merck’s KEYTRUDA® [14]. Earlier one-year interim results showed a 69% overall response rate and tumor reduction in 15 of 16 patients [15], highlighting the vaccine’s promise. Evaxion’s CSO/Interim CEO Birgitte Rønø emphasized that being selected for an ESMO oral presentation “is a testament to the interest in EVX-01 and the field of personalized cancer vaccines” [16].
Alongside the EVX-01 news, Evaxion has been active in expanding its pipeline and partnerships. On Sep 25, 2025, Evaxion announced that MSD (Merck) exercised its option for EVX-B3, an AI-discovered vaccine candidate [17]. MSD paid $7.5 M upfront and will fund all development for EVX-B3 (an unnamed infectious target); Evaxion remains eligible for up to $592 M in development/regulatory/sales milestones plus royalties [18]. The deal “significantly extends” Evaxion’s cash runway (into H1 2027) [19]. MSD also extended the evaluation period for EVX-B2 (preclinical gonorrhea vaccine), with an option decision expected in H1 2026 [20]. If exercised, EVX-B2 would yield $2.5 M plus similar milestone/royalty payouts [21]. These MSD partnerships underscore validation of Evaxion’s AI-Immunology™ platform in the infectious-disease arena.
In terms of financials, Evaxion reported Q2 2025 results in August. Cash on hand was $14.7 M as of June 30, 2025 (up from $6.0 M at end-2024), thanks to recent financing and the EIB loan-to-equity conversion [22]. The burn rate is substantial but manageable: management expects an operating cash burn of ~$14 M in 2025 [23], and current funds should carry operations into mid-2026 [24]. R&D spending is lower than last year’s quarter ($2.2 M vs $2.8 M), reflecting cost control. Total net loss was $4.8 M (vs $6.2 M YoY) in Q2 [25]. The partnerships (MSD, Gates Foundation) and strong platform pipeline are intended to bring in milestone revenue, gradually offsetting the burn.
Analyst and Expert Commentary: Market watchers note that Evaxion’s short-term outlook hinges on the upcoming data releases and continued funding. Analysts at HC Wainwright, Ladenburg, and others follow EVAX (per stockinfo), and consensus targets are bullish. StockAnalysis.com gives EVAX a “Strong Buy” consensus with average target $11 [26]. TipRanks confirms a recent Buy rating, though its model calls the stock Neutral citing the company’s current losses and risk profile [27]. In general, biotech analysts highlight Evaxion’s innovative AI-immunology approach and recent pipeline deals, but caution that long-term success depends on clinical results and the ability to raise additional capital. For example, TipRanks notes that despite rapid revenue growth (up 4480% in 2024) Evaxion’s losses remain large, flagging “regulatory and market challenges” as significant risks [28].
Biotech Sector Outlook: The broader biotech sector has been volatile in late 2025. Venture funding for small biotechs has slowed markedly (HSBC reports Q2 2025 was the worst quarter for early-stage biotech funding in three years [29]). Public markets, however, showed pockets of enthusiasm. In early October, many biotech names hit 52-week highs on promising news – e.g. Intellia (NTLA) jumped on blockbuster CRISPR trial data [30], Cidara (CDTX) on an FDA breakthrough designation [31], etc. Biotechs linked to AI/precision medicine (like Recursion RXRX) also spiked on renewed investor interest [32] [33]. For instance, Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) saw its share price surge 63% YTD after unveiling CRISPR Phase 1 data with ~90–92% durable protein knockdown [34]. Similarly, Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX) – which uses AI in drug discovery – rebounded sharply in early October (a 16% one-day jump on Oct 8) amid general biotech/AI rallies [35]. At the same time, microcap biotechs like Xenetic (XBIO) saw parabolic moves (+123% in one day) driven by momentum and thin float, highlighting the speculative nature of small-cap biotech trading [36] [37].
Overall, the AI-driven biotech space is in focus. Evaxion sits at the intersection of personalized immunotherapy and AI, trends that are in vogue. If its upcoming melanoma vaccine results impress investors, EVAX could benefit from the sector’s upbeat sentiment. However, investors also note that biotech valuations are high and pipeline success is far from guaranteed. As one analyst puts it for similar companies, the stock is priced on future potential more than current revenue [38]. For Evaxion, the ability to capitalize on partnerships (like with MSD and Gates), raise new funding, and ultimately win regulatory approval for its vaccines will be critical.
Sources: Latest company releases and filings [39] [40] [41] [42]; market data and analyst reports [43] [44] [45]; biotech industry news [46] [47] [48] [49] [50].
References
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