Evolution Mining (ASX: EVN) Share Price on 4 December 2025: Record Profits, Lithium JV and What Analysts Expect Next

Evolution Mining Limited (ASX: EVN) heads into 4 December 2025 trading just under all‑time highs, powered by record financial results, surging precious‑metal prices and a new lithium joint venture in Nevada. At Wednesday’s close (3 December), Evolution shares finished at A$11.90, up 1.28% on the day and about 7.8% higher over the past two weeks. ^[1]

Over the last year, the stock has more than doubled; market data shows Evolution has outperformed its sector by around 118% and the ASX 200 by roughly 136% on a 12‑month view. ^[2] A fresh article on 4 December highlighting booming ASX mining names notes Evolution’s share price has jumped about 147% over the comparison period, putting it among the standout performers on the Australian market. ^[3]

At the same time, many brokers now see the shares as trading ahead of fair value, creating a sharp contrast between technical momentum and valuation models. This is exactly the kind of tension that tends to attract both momentum traders and skeptics.

Evolution Mining share price snapshot on 4 December 2025

Last close (3 Dec 2025): A$11.90, up from A$11.75 (+1.28%) in the previous session.
Intraday range on 3 Dec: Low A$11.48, high A$11.98, a 4.3% swing. ^[4]
Recent trend: Up in 7 of the last 10 sessions and about 7.8% higher over the past two weeks. ^[5]
30‑day trading range: Roughly A$9.79 to A$12.16, with the 52‑week range running from about A$4.61 to A$12.16. ^[6]

Several quantitative and technical platforms estimate a “fair” opening price for 4 December near A$11.8–12.0, broadly in line with the prior close. ^[7]

On traditional fundamentals, Evolution currently earns EPS of about A$0.46 per share and has paid A$0.20 in fully‑franked dividends over the past 12 months. ^[8]

Big picture: record FY25 results and a stronger balance sheet

The backbone of the EVN re‑rating has been a step‑change in profitability and cash flow.

For the year ended 30 June 2025 (FY25), Evolution reported: ^[9]

Statutory net profit after tax: A$926 million, up 119% year‑on‑year.
Underlying profit: A$958 million, up 99%.
Underlying EBITDA: A$2.21 billion, up 46%, with EBITDA margin rising from 47% to 51%.
Gold production: 750,512 ounces (up 5%).
Copper production: 76,261 tonnes (up 12%).
Achieved gold price: A$4,300/oz (up 35% from FY24).
All‑in sustaining cost (AISC): A$1,653/oz, somewhat higher than the prior year but still leaving very wide margins at current gold prices.

Cash generation was equally strong: net mine cash flow climbed 78% to A$1.04 billion and group cash flow more than doubled to A$787 million, even after more than A$1.0 billion in capital investment across the portfolio. Gearing (net debt to capital) fell from 25% to 15%, while liquidity rose to about A$1.3 billion. ^[10]

The board responded with a record total dividend of 20 cents per share for FY25 (7 cents interim and 13 cents final), fully franked and paid under a dividend reinvestment plan (DRP) offered at a 5% discount for the final dividend. ^[11]

Operations: six mines, strong margins and long mine lives

Evolution operates six producing assets: Cowal, Ernest Henry, Mt Rawdon and Mungari in Australia, Red Lake in Canada, plus an 80% interest in Northparkes in New South Wales. ^[12]

Highlights from FY25 and the latest September‑quarter report include: ^[13]

Cowal (NSW): Record annual production and cash flow. The board approved the Open Pit Continuation (OPC) project, extending open‑pit mining by 10+ years and operations to 2042, with an estimated A$430 million of capex over seven years.
Ernest Henry (Queensland): Record operating cash flow and industry‑leading AISC; mine life extended to 2040 following a Mine Extension Feasibility Study.
Northparkes (NSW, 80%): First full year under Evolution ownership generated strong cash flow; full production from the E48 sub‑level cave is targeted for the first half of FY26.
Mungari (WA): Completed a major mill expansion ahead of schedule and under budget; now ramping towards commercial production in the first half of FY26.
Red Lake (Ontario, Canada): Delivered its best performance under Evolution, with records in production and cash flow as turnaround efforts continue.
Mt Rawdon (Queensland): Generated record net mine cash flow; mining has ceased, and Evolution is progressing a pumped‑hydro conversion project with government‑owned CleanCo and an infrastructure partner.

The September‑quarter 2025 (Q1 FY26) report shows operations continuing to throw off substantial cash: net mine cash flow reached about A$366 million for the quarter, with total liquidity at roughly A$1.3 billion and gearing further reduced to 11%. ^[14]

New growth lever: Nevada North lithium joint venture

The biggest piece of “new news” for investors in early December is not gold, but lithium.

On 2 December 2025, Surge Battery Metals announced it has formally entered into a joint venture with a subsidiary of Evolution Mining to advance the Nevada North Lithium Project (NNLP) in the US. ^[15]

Key terms of the JV include: ^[16]

The project will be held in a new entity, Nevada North Lithium LLC.
Surge initially contributes its claims and mineral rights over the NNLP; Evolution contributes its 75% mineral interest over 880 acres of private land plus 75% mineral rights over another 21,000+ acres around the project.
Surge US starts with 77% of the JV and Evolution 23%.
Evolution will solely fund up to C$10 million for a Preliminary Feasibility Study (PFS), staged over time, in exchange for a higher stake.
After the first C$3 million tranche, Surge’s interest falls to about 74.15% and Evolution’s to about 25.85%. If Evolution completes the full C$10 million funding, its stake rises to 32.5% (Surge 67.5%).

For Evolution, this is a relatively small capital commitment compared to gold operations, but it gives the company a meaningful foothold in clay‑hosted lithium at a time when battery metals remain strategically important. Commentary from independent analysis stresses that this should be treated as upside optionality rather than a core value driver in the near term, given technical and permitting risks and high uncertainty around long‑run lithium prices. TS2 Tech+1

Gold and silver tailwind: macro context

The share price surge is also tightly linked to an extraordinary run in precious metals:

A widely cited 4 December note on ASX miners highlights that silver has broken above US$58/oz to an all‑time high, boosting sentiment across precious‑metal producers. ^[17]
Evolution’s own financial calendar page shows spot gold around US$4,229/oz (A$6,461/oz) on recent company materials, indicating that FY26 is starting with gold well above the A$4,300/oz achieved in FY25. ^[18]

With an FY25 AISC of A$1,653/oz and FY26 guidance of A$1,720–1,880/oz, that gap between realised prices and costs translates into very high cash margins as long as bullion stays elevated. ^[19]

FY26 guidance: high‑margin production continues

Evolution is guiding for FY26 (year to 30 June 2026) to look like another year of high‑margin, cash‑rich operations: ^[20]

Gold production: 710,000–780,000 ounces
Copper production: 70,000–80,000 tonnes
Group AISC: A$1,720–1,880/oz
Sustaining capital: A$200–270 million
Major mine development: A$215–270 million
Major project capital: A$365–440 million

The company explicitly frames FY26 as another year of “high margin, high cash flow generation”, aided by higher gold and copper prices, disciplined capital allocation and the completion of big capex programs like the Mungari mill expansion and Cowal OPC. ^[21]

Upcoming catalysts include: ^[22]

21 January 2026: December‑quarter 2025 results
11 February 2026: FY26 half‑year results

These events are likely to be important for confirming whether current margins and production trends are sustainable.

Analyst ratings and EVN share price targets

Despite the booming share price and strong fundamentals, broker research is notably cautious at current levels.

Across several consensus providers, the picture as of late November 2025 is roughly:

MarketScreener:
- Mean consensus: Underperform
- 16 analysts
- Average 12‑month target: A$10.05 vs a recent close around A$11.65–11.90, implying ~10–15% downside. ^[23]
Investing.com:
- 16 analysts
- Consensus rating: Neutral
- Recommendation split: 3 Buy, 5 Hold, 8 Sell
- Average 12‑month price target: A$10.05, with a range from about A$4 to A$14.25. ^[24]
TipRanks & similar aggregators:
- Around 13 Wall Street‑style analysts
- Average target clustered near A$10.1 per share. ^[25]
ValueInvesting.io (broader sample):
- 22 analysts
- Average target: A$10.59
- Target range: A$6.77–14.96
- Consensus recommendation: Sell, with the average target implying roughly 9% downside from around A$11.65. ^[26]

The broad message: fundamental analysts believe EVN is fully valued to slightly overvalued after its huge run, even though most still forecast continued growth in earnings, cash flow and dividends. This explains why many research notes now emphasise valuation risk more than operational risk.

Technical outlook: momentum still strong, but “overbought” signals flashing

Short‑term technical analysis largely reflects what any trader can see on a chart: a powerful uptrend that has started to look stretched.

StockInvest data shows the stock has risen in most of the last 10 sessions, trades near the top of a rising short‑term trend channel and recently hit new 52‑week highs in the A$12 area. ^[27]
The same service estimates a “fair opening price” around A$11.79 on 4 December and flags the possibility of continued upside if the trend holds, but warns that volatility could increase after such a strong move. ^[28]
A 2 December technical note from FNArena describes a classic “cup and handle” pattern after an October pullback, arguing the stock is poised to break higher with a near‑term trading target around A$14 and suggested stop‑loss levels near A$10.70. ^[29]

In other words, chart‑based models mostly lean bullish in the short term, but many also describe EVN as overbought, where the risk of sharp pullbacks on any bad news is elevated. TS2 Tech

Long‑term forecasts: models vs reality

Quantitative forecasting tools – heavily reliant on past price patterns – also point to upside, though their usefulness is limited and assumptions‑heavy:

One long‑term technical model projects the EVN share price rising from around A$11.98 today to roughly A$21 by late 2030, implying a potential five‑year total return in the mid‑70% range if dividends are ignored. ^[30]

Such algorithmic projections should always be treated as scenarios, not predictions. They essentially say, “If the past pattern continues and markets behave normally, here is one possible trajectory.” Real‑world outcomes will depend far more on metal prices, cost control, geology and policy risk than on any fitted curve.

On the fundamental side, analyst models summarised by various data platforms suggest: TS2 Tech+2Investing.com+2

Revenue growth moderating to low‑single‑digit percentages after FY26.
EPS rising from ~A$0.46 in FY25 towards the low‑to‑mid 70 cent range over the next couple of years.
Returns on equity trending towards the low‑20% region if high bullion prices persist.

Again, the tension is clear: fundamental forecasts look healthy, but after the re‑rating of 2024–25, much of this growth appears already priced in.

Ownership, dividends and governance: what’s behind the register

Several recent pieces of analysis emphasise three structural features that matter for medium‑term investors: ^[31]

Heavy institutional ownership
- Large Australian and global institutions own the bulk of the register.
- This supports liquidity and index inclusion but can amplify moves when funds rebalance or sector rotations hit gold stocks.
Dividend policy and track record
- Evolution has now paid 25 consecutive dividends and recently tripled its final dividend year‑on‑year (from 5c to 13c). ^[32]
- Over the last 12 months, dividends total about A$0.20 per share, implying a trailing yield of roughly 1.7% at current prices; forward‑looking estimates suggest this could rise if earnings stay elevated. ^[33]
Board and management signals
- Mid‑2025 saw significant share sales by long‑time chair Jake Klein around A$7.95, followed by large equity grants and exercises for CEO Lawrie Conway and other directors near A$11.40–11.65 later in the year, effectively increasing their exposure at higher prices. ^[34]
- This mixed pattern – some de‑risking at lower levels, more alignment at higher levels – is often interpreted as neutral to mildly positive, rather than overtly bearish.

Key risks to the EVN investment case

Even with strong execution, Evolution is not risk‑free. Recent research and company disclosures highlight several major risk buckets: Newsfile+3TS2 Tech+3Company Announcements+3

Commodity price risk
- EVN is highly leveraged to gold and, to a lesser extent, copper.
- A significant fall in bullion prices from current record levels would compress margins quickly and could force a re‑rating even if operations remain solid.
Cost inflation and operational hiccups
- Like all miners, Evolution faces rising input costs, labour constraints and potential grade variability.
- Historically, there have been periods where production guidance was trimmed due to weather disruptions, equipment issues or project delays, especially around Mungari and Cowal.
Project execution risk
- Multiple large projects are moving at once (Cowal OPC, Mungari expansion ramp‑up, Red Lake improvement, Ernest Henry/Bert studies, Mt Rawdon pumped hydro concept, Nevada North lithium PFS).
- Cost overruns or delays at any of these could dent the growth narrative.
Lithium JV uncertainty
- The Nevada North project is early‑stage and technically challenging (clay‑hosted lithium typically has trickier metallurgy).
- The JV is sized sensibly relative to Evolution’s balance sheet but remains speculative.
Valuation and sentiment
- After a 140%‑plus move, EVN has become a “priced for perfection” story in many models; downside from any disappointment could be abrupt.
- Overbought technicals and heavy institutional ownership mean flows, not fundamentals, may dominate short‑term movements. TS2 Tech+2MarketScreener+2

Bottom line: how Evolution Mining stock looks on 4 December 2025

As of 4 December 2025, Evolution Mining sits at an interesting crossroads:

The bull case:
- Record profits, record cash flow and record dividends. ^[35]
- A strengthened balance sheet with low gearing and over A$1.3 billion in liquidity. ^[36]
- High‑quality, long‑life gold‑copper assets with sector‑leading margins at current metal prices. ^[37]
- New optionality from the Nevada North lithium JV and the Mt Rawdon pumped‑hydro concept. ^[38]
The bear (or at least cautious) case:
- The share price has already more than doubled, and multiple consensus sources now cluster around targets below the current market price. ^[39]
- Technical indicators flag overbought conditions, and several analysts explicitly describe EVN as fully‑valued or stretched on traditional metrics. ^[40]
- The story is now highly sensitive to gold prices and flawless project execution – a high bar for any miner. TS2 Tech+1

For investors viewing the stock on 4 December 2025, Evolution Mining looks less like a classic “cheap cyclical” and more like a high‑beta, quality growth exposure to gold (with a side bet on lithium). Whether that is attractive depends largely on individual views about the durability of today’s precious‑metals cycle and appetite for volatility rather than on whether the underlying business is sound.