New York, January 6, 2026, 18:40 EST — After-hours
- Exxon Mobil shares fell 3.4% on Tuesday, underperforming a broader market that finished higher.
- Crude prices settled lower on expectations of ample 2026 supply, with traders watching U.S. inventory data due Wednesday.
- Venezuela policy headlines and late-week White House talks are back in focus for U.S. oil majors and refiners.
Exxon Mobil Corp shares fell 3.4% to $121.05 on Tuesday, after trading between $121.01 and $126.11.
Oil prices slid as the market weighed expectations of ample global supply in 2026 against uncertainty over Venezuelan output after the U.S. capture of President Nicolas Maduro. Brent settled down 1.7% at $60.70 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate fell 2% to $57.13, while Morgan Stanley analysts warned the balance could tip into a surplus of as much as 3 million barrels a day in the first half. “Oil supply will be sufficient in 2026,” said Tamas Varga at PVM Oil, and Rystad Energy’s Janiv Shah pegged near-term Venezuelan gains at about 300,000 barrels a day over the next two to three years. 1
The stock had gained more than 2% on Monday after Trump said the United States would take control of Venezuela following Maduro’s arrest, pushing investors to reassess the value of long-dormant assets and claims. J.P. Morgan analysts said Exxon has a significant arbitration award pending, with outstanding damages in the roughly $2 billion range versus original claims that exceeded $15 billion. “This type of crude aligns well with the configuration of U.S. Gulf Coast refineries,” said Ahmad Assiri, a research strategist at Pepperstone, pointing to the appeal of heavier Venezuelan grades for U.S. refiners. 2
Peers moved in step. Chevron slid 4.4% on Tuesday and ConocoPhillips fell 2.2%, as energy stocks lagged despite strength elsewhere in U.S. equities.
But the Venezuela trade carries a clear downside for Exxon: more barrels would add supply pressure while requiring big, risky spending in a country with degraded infrastructure. Breakeven costs — the oil price needed to cover costs — for key Orinoco belt grades average more than $80 a barrel, Wood Mackenzie estimates, well above Exxon’s stated $30-a-barrel breakeven target by 2030. “The opportunity must be compelling enough to offset the substantial political risk that will persist in the years ahead,” said Carlos Bellorin at Welligence Energy. 3
U.S. stocks ended higher on Tuesday, with the Dow up about 1% and the S&P 500 up about 0.6%, underscoring how the pressure on Exxon was driven more by energy-specific catalysts than broad risk appetite. 4
Next up, Exxon said it will post a “4Q25 earnings considerations” 8-K — an SEC filing — after the market closes on Wednesday. Investors are also watching for any readout from a White House meeting with oil executives on Venezuela that sources said is likely on Friday; “It’s hard to imagine increases beyond 300,000 to 400,000 barrels a day in the next year,” Goldman Sachs commodities co-head Daan Struyven said. 5
