New York, Jan 7, 2026, 17:16 (EST) — After-hours
- Exxon said weaker liquids prices could cut fourth-quarter upstream earnings by $800 million to $1.2 billion
- Shares were down about 2% in extended trading
- Focus shifts to Exxon’s Jan. 30 results and 2026 outlook
Exxon Mobil shares slid 2.1% to $118.49 in after-hours trading on Wednesday after the company flagged a fourth-quarter upstream earnings hit from lower crude prices. Exxon said changes in liquids prices could cut upstream earnings by $800 million to $1.2 billion. Brent crude fell 9.2% in the quarter and ended 2025 down about 19%; Exxon is due to report on Jan. 30, and analysts see adjusted earnings of $1.66 a share, LSEG data show. 1
The filing lands at a touchy moment for the sector, with investors trying to pin down how far the late-2025 oil slide will bleed into cash flow. “Upstream” is the business that pumps oil and gas; for Exxon, it tends to drive the biggest swings in quarterly profit.
Exxon’s update also sketched out some offsets. Gas prices could swing quarterly upstream earnings from a $300 million drag to a $100 million lift, while “industry margins” — basically refining and fuels spreads — could add $300 million to $700 million; chemical products were shown as a headwind in the same line item. The exhibit also flagged divestment gains of $600 million to $800 million and potential impairment charges, and Exxon stressed the table is not an earnings forecast and excludes normal operating performance. 2
Crude itself stayed heavy. Brent settled down 1.2% at $59.96 a barrel on Wednesday and U.S. WTI fell 2% to $55.99 after President Donald Trump said Venezuela would send 30 million to 50 million barrels of oil to the United States. “Crude futures continuing on the defensive,” said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial. 3
Producers are talking more openly about oversupply again. EOG Resources finance chief Ann Janssen said oversupply and the prospect of higher Venezuela output were pushing prices down and that the pressure was likely to persist for several more quarters; Reuters also reported Trump is scheduled to meet the heads of major oil companies at the White House on Friday. 4
Exxon’s stock has traded between $97.80 and $125.93 over the past 52 weeks, leaving it in the middle of that band even after Wednesday’s drop. Traders were watching whether it can reclaim the $120 area into Thursday’s session. 5
But the ranges can move fast. If crude prices keep sliding, the upstream hit could grow, while a pullback in refining margins would take away one of the few near-term cushions the company pointed to.
The next hard catalyst is Jan. 30, when Exxon posts results and investors press for its read on 2026 pricing, supply and spending as the market swings back to debating surplus barrels.
