Exxon Mobil Stock Today (December 5, 2025): Price, Dividend Machine, Guyana Boom and 2026 Forecasts

This article is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

XOM stock snapshot on December 5, 2025

Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM) is trading near the top of its 52‑week range as of Friday, December 5, 2025.

• Latest price: around $118 per share in Friday trading, with recent real‑time quotes in the $117.8–$118.8 band. ^[1]
• Close price: Yahoo Finance data show a December 5 close around $117.4 after opening at $117.5. ^[2]
• 52‑week range: roughly $98–$121, with several sources citing lows around $97.8 and highs near $120.8. ^[3]
• Year‑to‑date performance: XOM has delivered about 13–14% total return in 2025, modestly trailing but broadly in line with the S&P 500. ^[4]

Today’s strength comes against the backdrop of a broader market rally driven by cooling inflation data and growing expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, a macro tailwind that is lifting cyclical sectors such as energy. ^[5]

Q3 2025 earnings: strong cash flow, record production

Exxon’s latest reported quarter is Q3 2025, released on October 31.

Headline numbers

According to the company’s official earnings release: ^[6]

• GAAP earnings:$7.5 billion, or $1.76 per diluted share
• Earnings ex. special items: about $8.1 billion, or $1.88 per share (non‑GAAP), beating the Zacks consensus of $1.81 but slightly below the prior‑year quarter’s $1.92. ^[7]
• Cash flow from operations (CFO):$14.8 billion in Q3
• Free cash flow (FCF):$6.3 billion in Q3
• Year‑to‑date CFO:$39.3 billion
• Year‑to‑date FCF:$20.6 billion

Management continues to lean heavily into shareholder returns:

• Q3 shareholder distributions:$9.4 billion, split between $4.2 billion in dividends and $5.1 billion of share repurchases
• Year‑to‑date 2025 distributions:$27.8 billion, including $12.9 billion of dividends and $14.9 billion of buybacks, consistent with a plan to repurchase $20 billion of stock in 2025. ^[8]

Operations: Guyana and Permian doing the heavy lifting

Exxon’s earnings power is increasingly tied to two growth engines: offshore Guyana and the Permian Basin.

From the Q3 release and follow‑on company updates: ^[9]

• Guyana (Stabroek block)
  • Q3 saw gross production in Guyana exceed 700,000 oil‑equivalent barrels per day, with the Yellowtail development starting up four months ahead of schedule and under budget.
  • In November, Exxon and partners announced that daily production in the Stabroek block reached 900,000 barrels of oil, driven by Yellowtail ramping to its 250,000 bpd capacity alongside Liza Phase 1, Liza Phase 2 and Payara.
  • The consortium has sanctioned seven projects (including Uaru, Whiptail and Hammerhead) and is advancing an eighth (Longtail). Once all eight are online, installed capacity is expected to reach about 1.7 million barrels per day by 2030, with more than $60 billion already committed.
• Permian Basin
  • Exxon reported a new quarterly production record of nearly 1.7 million oil‑equivalent barrels per day from the Permian in Q3.
  • The company also acquired over 80,000 net acres from Sinochem during the quarter, giving it more room to deploy proprietary technologies (for example, lightweight proppant that can improve well recoveries by up to 20%). ^[10]

In short, Q3 confirmed a common analyst view: while headline earnings are down from the super‑cycle peaks of 2022–2023, Exxon’s volumes, cost structure and project pipeline are trending in the right direction, partially offsetting softer commodity prices. ^[11]

Dividend: 43‑year growth streak and ~3.5% yield

If there is one thing XOM is famous for, it’s the dividend.

New higher payout in Q4 2025

On October 31, the board raised the quarterly dividend by 4%, from $0.99 to $1.03 per share, or $4.12 annually. ^[12]

Key details: ^[13]

• Quarterly dividend: $1.03 per share
• Record date: November 14, 2025
• Payment date: December 10, 2025
• Trailing 12‑month dividend: about $4.12 per share, implying a current dividend yield around 3.5% at a ~$118 share price (various trackers show 3.47–3.54%). ^[14]

According to Exxon’s own release, the company has now increased its annual dividend per share for 43 consecutive years, placing it firmly in “dividend aristocrat” territory. ^[15]

Zacks notes that across those 43 years, the dividend per share has grown at an average rate of roughly 5–6%, and in the first nine months of 2025 Exxon returned $12.9 billion in dividends and $14.9 billion in buybacks to shareholders. ^[16]

Payout ratio and sustainability

Different data providers estimate Exxon’s payout ratio (dividends as a percentage of earnings) in the low‑to‑mid 50% range, suggesting room to maintain and gradually grow the dividend even if oil prices stay moderate. ^[17]

Combined with large buybacks, that makes XOM one of the more shareholder‑friendly integrated oil majors right now, but it also means a sizable share of free cash flow is being returned rather than reinvested.

Balance sheet and valuation: conservative leverage, moderate premium

Debt and liquidity

Exxon’s balance sheet remains a key part of the bull case.

From the Q3 statement: ^[18]

• Debt‑to‑capital ratio: about 13.5–13.6%
• Net‑debt‑to‑capital:~9.5%
• Net debt: roughly $42 billion
• Period‑end cash balance:~$13.9 billion

A recent Zacks/Nasdaq analysis highlights that this low leverage gives Exxon more flexibility to weather downturns, fund acquisitions and still keep rewarding shareholders. ^[19]

Valuation metrics

Across multiple sources, Exxon currently screens as neither extremely cheap nor dramatically overvalued, but at a modest premium to the integrated oil & gas peer group:

• Zacks estimates trailing EV/EBITDA around 7.65×, vs an industry average near 4.8×. ^[20]
• DirectorsTalk puts forward P/E at ~15.8×, supported by free cash flow of over $17 billion and ROE around 11–12%. ^[21]

Meanwhile, Morningstar maintains a $129 fair value estimate on Exxon with a “narrow moat” rating, implying the stock trades at roughly a low‑double‑digit discount to their intrinsic value model at current prices. ^[22]

Put together, the market appears to be pricing Exxon as a high‑quality, cash‑rich major with durable assets, rather than a deep‑value cyclical.

Analyst ratings and price targets: upside skewed, but not dramatic

Fresh data from several aggregators show constructive but not euphoric sentiment on XOM.

Street consensus

According to StockAnalysis, which compiles Wall Street forecasts: ^[23]

• Number of covering analysts: 16
• Consensus rating:“Buy”
• Average 12‑month price target:$129.5, implying ~10% upside vs around $118 today
• Target range:
  • Low: $105 (≈11% downside)
  • Median: $126 (≈7% upside)
  • High: $156 (≈30–32% upside)

MarketBeat and other platforms report a similar average target in the $127–$129 area, with a “Moderate Buy” or “Overweight” consensus. ^[24]

Zacks, by contrast, currently assigns XOM a Rank #3 (Hold), reflecting decent fundamentals but less near‑term upside versus their highest‑conviction ideas. ^[25]

Recent high‑profile calls

Several major banks have updated their views in the past few weeks, mostly skewing bullish: ^[26]

• UBS assumed/maintained coverage with a “Buy” / “Strong Buy” rating and a $145 price target, implying roughly 23% upside.
• Piper Sandler raised its target from $141 to $144, retaining an Overweight/Buy stance.
• Scotiabank increased its target from $128 to $155, also with a Buy rating.
• Wells Fargo recently initiated coverage with a Buy and a $156 target, at the high end of the range.

A separate analysis on DirectorsTalk notes that compiled broker targets imply about 9–10% price upside from current levels plus a 3.5% dividend yield, for high‑single‑digit to low‑double‑digit total‑return potential under base‑case assumptions. ^[27]

Earnings and revenue forecasts

Street models, as reflected in StockAnalysis, expect 2025 to be a “down then up” year: ^[28]

• EPS 2024: ~7.84
• EPS 2025 (consensus):6.91, down about 12% year‑on‑year
• EPS 2026 (consensus):7.47, up ~8% from 2025 as new projects ramp and cost savings accumulate
• Revenue 2025: projected around $332.8 billion, down ~2.3% from 2024
• Revenue 2026: essentially flat at ~$331.4 billion

In other words, analysts see moderately lower earnings in 2025 vs 2024, followed by a rebound in 2026, assuming roughly stable commodity prices and no major execution issues.

Growth catalysts: Guyana, Permian, Iraq and low‑carbon deals

1. Guyana: a world‑class oil basin

Guyana remains Exxon’s crown jewel:

• Stabroek production hit 900,000 barrels per day in November 2025, only a decade after the first major discovery. ^[29]
• Seven sanctioned projects plus a proposed eighth (Longtail) are expected to lift installed capacity to ~1.7 million barrels per day by 2030. ^[30]
• Independent analysis suggests the Stabroek block has very low breakeven costs (around $30 per barrel), making it one of the most profitable assets in the Americas and highly competitive even in a lower‑price environment. ^[31]

Given Exxon’s 45% operating interest in the block, this production ramp should support upstream earnings and free cash flow for years, albeit with political and environmental scrutiny attached.

2. Permian Basin: scale plus technology

The company’s record Permian output (~1.7 million oil‑equivalent barrels per day in Q3) and incremental acreage acquisition from Sinochem serve two functions: ^[32]

• Keep low‑cost barrels flowing to balance higher‑cost or declining assets elsewhere.
• Provide a testing ground for new drilling and completion techniques that can be exported globally.

If oil prices remain anywhere near current levels, the Permian is likely to stay a reliable cash engine for Exxon.

3. Possible return to Iraq via West Qurna 2

A notable geopolitical angle emerged this week: Reuters reports that Exxon has approached Iraq’s oil ministry about buying Lukoil’s 75% stake in the West Qurna 2 field, one of the world’s largest, producing roughly 470,000 barrels per day (about 9% of Iraq’s total output). ^[33]

• Negotiations have been temporarily authorized by U.S. sanctions authorities but require further approvals.
• Iraq is said to favor Exxon as a potential operator and may invite competitive bids from other U.S. firms as well. ^[34]

If a deal materializes, Exxon would re‑establish a major footprint in Iraq after exiting West Qurna 1 last year. For now, this is an option, not a guaranteed growth driver.

4. Low‑carbon ammonia and carbon capture

Despite recent setbacks in hydrogen (more on that below), Exxon continues to build a low‑carbon solutions business linked to its existing asset base.

Key initiatives: ^[35]

• A long‑term agreement to supply around 250,000 tonnes per year of low‑carbon ammonia to Japan’s Marubeni, supporting co‑firing in power plants and industrial decarbonization.
• A plan to invest up to $30 billion in lower‑emission projects between 2025 and 2030, with roughly 65% of that aimed at reducing emissions for third‑party customers (through carbon capture, storage and other services).
• Targets to capture and store 30 million metric tons of CO₂ annually by 2030, with management expecting around $2 billion of incremental earnings by 2027 from low‑carbon projects in some scenarios.

These efforts are still small relative to Exxon’s core hydrocarbon business, but they serve both as a hedge against long‑term energy transition risk and as a potential new profit pool if carbon pricing and industrial decarbonization accelerate.

Transition challenges: hydrogen pullback and “pacing” low‑carbon capex

The low‑carbon narrative around Exxon is complicated.

Hydrogen project canceled in Texas

On December 1, 2025, Canary Media reported that Exxon has scrapped plans for a massive “blue” hydrogen facility in Baytown, Texas, once billed as one of the world’s largest. ^[36]

Key points:

• The plant was originally designed to produce about 1 billion cubic feet per day of low‑carbon hydrogen, supported by a ~$332 million U.S. Department of Energy grant.
• The new U.S. administration pulled federal funding earlier this year, and CEO Darren Woods said Exxon couldn’t secure enough customers willing to pay the premium for blue hydrogen versus conventional “gray” hydrogen.
• The cancellation underscores how policy shifts and weak offtake demand can quickly derail large‑scale hydrogen projects, and suggests Exxon will be more cautious about capital‑intensive low‑carbon bets that depend on subsidies.

“Pacing” low‑carbon spending

Separately, reporting from the Financial Times and energy‑sector outlets indicates that Exxon plans to “pace” its low‑carbon investments, citing weaker‑than‑expected customer demand and uncertainty around climate policies, even as it keeps the headline $30 billion 2025–2030 investment envelope in place. ^[37]

Viewed together, these moves imply that Exxon’s near‑term cash allocation will remain heavily skewed toward traditional oil and gas projects (like Guyana and the Permian), with low‑carbon spending more tightly linked to proven demand and regulatory clarity.

Institutional flows: who’s buying and who’s trimming XOM?

Several new 13F‑style filings hit the tape on December 5, offering a glimpse of how institutional investors are positioning around Exxon: ^[38]

• Cresset Asset Management has increased its XOM stake, signaling continued confidence in the name as a core holding.
• SCS Capital Management and M Holdings Securities both boosted their XOM positions significantly in the second quarter, according to MarketBeat summaries.
• Meanwhile, European asset manager Amundireduced its Exxon stake by roughly 14–15%, selling about 3.85 million shares over the same period.

This mixed picture is typical for a large, widely held mega‑cap: some managers are rotating into Exxon as a defensive, cash‑rich energy play, while others take profits after the stock’s strong recovery toward its 52‑week highs.

Macro backdrop: refining margins, diesel strength and energy equities

Zacks and other commentators point out that soaring diesel prices and strong refining margins in 2025 have been a tailwind for integrated oil and refining names more broadly, supporting earnings even as crude prices cooled from earlier peaks. ^[39]

As a major refining and chemicals player, Exxon’s Product Solutions and Chemical/Specialty segments help balance the cyclicality of upstream earnings. UBS, for example, specifically cites these non‑upstream businesses as meaningful contributors to future free cash flow, not just side pieces to the exploration & production story. ^[40]

Against a macro backdrop of slowing but positive global growth, easing inflation and rising expectations for rate cuts, this diversified earnings base is part of why Exxon is often grouped among “safer” large‑cap equity plays for 2025–2026, especially for investors seeking income plus moderate growth.

Key risks: commodity cycles, policy, and transition uncertainty

Even with strong assets and a fortress‑like balance sheet, Exxon Mobil is far from risk‑free.

1. Commodity price volatility
   Zacks explicitly notes that Exxon generates most of its earnings from its upstream segment, leaving its top and bottom lines highly exposed to oil and natural‑gas price swings. ^[41] A global slowdown, supply shock, or policy‑driven demand hit could compress margins quickly.
2. Policy and climate‑related risk
   Exxon has become a focal point in debates over carbon accounting and emissions, including controversies around how to count emissions reductions from carbon capture and low‑carbon fuels. ^[42] Tougher regulations, litigation, or changes in carbon‑pricing frameworks could materially alter project economics.
3. Execution and geopolitical risk
   • Large offshore projects in Guyana and potential future ventures in Iraq carry operational, regulatory and political risks, including environmental incidents or contract renegotiations. ^[43]
   • Any significant delays or cost overruns in these mega‑projects could dent the earnings and FCF trajectories underpinning bullish forecasts.
4. Energy transition pace
   Exxon’s decision to cancel the Baytown hydrogen plant and to “pace” low‑carbon spending highlights the uncertainty around monetizing transition technologies at scale. ^[44] If the world moves faster than expected toward decarbonization, Exxon may need to accelerate low‑carbon investment and accept lower returns; if it moves slower, capital committed to low‑carbon projects may under‑earn.

What today’s setup means for Exxon Mobil stock

As of December 5, 2025, Exxon Mobil’s investment profile can be summarized as follows:

• Valuation: Trading near 52‑week highs but still around 10% below the average analyst target and a bit under Morningstar’s $129 fair value estimate, with EV/EBITDA and P/E slightly above industry averages. ^[45]
• Income: A ~3.5% dividend yield, supported by a 43‑year growth streak, plus aggressive buybacks funded by strong cash flows. ^[46]
• Growth drivers: Rapidly growing Guyana output, record Permian volumes, potential optionality from Iraq’s West Qurna 2, and a growing but still nascent low‑carbon solutions franchise. ^[47]
• Risks: Classic cyclical exposure to oil and gas prices, geopolitical and regulatory risk in new frontiers, and a still‑unsettled path for monetizing decarbonization technologies at attractive returns. ^[48]

For income‑oriented investors and those seeking large‑cap energy exposure, current Street research generally views XOM as a quality hold or Buy with mid‑single to low‑double‑digit expected total returns over the next 12 months, assuming no major macro shock. But whether that fits your portfolio depends on your time horizon, risk tolerance and view on the energy transition.

If you’re considering an investment, it’s important to:

• Stress‑test your thesis against different oil and gas price scenarios
• Think about how much policy and ESG risk you’re comfortable with
• And consider diversifying across multiple sectors rather than relying on any single company, however strong its balance sheet.

References

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