Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM) is trading lower on Monday, Dec. 15, 2025, even as Wall Street research remains broadly constructive following the company’s updated 2030 corporate plan and fresh analyst commentary.
As of 16:39 UTC today, Exxon shares were at $116.98, down 1.55% on the session (intraday range: $116.88–$119.55).
That pullback comes after a strong run that pushed the stock close to its recent highs—an important context for investors weighing whether Exxon is still a “buy” at current levels, or a high-quality energy name that’s starting to look priced-in.
What’s driving Exxon Mobil stock today
The day’s price action looks less about a new company-specific headline and more about the typical drivers for integrated oil majors: energy prices and broad market positioning heading into year-end.
A notable datapoint in today’s coverage: a UBS note highlighted Exxon trading just ~1% below its 52-week high of $120.81 around the time of the report—underscoring how close the stock has been to breakout territory in recent sessions. [1]
Meanwhile, oil benchmarks have been softer in Monday trading, which often pressures energy equities at the margin. One market snapshot showed WTI and Brent futures both down more than 1% during the session. [2]
Today’s key XOM headlines and fresh analysis (Dec. 15, 2025)
Several pieces of research and market commentary published today are shaping the conversation around Exxon stock:
UBS reiterates Buy, keeps $145 target after Exxon’s improved guidance
Investing.com reported that UBS reiterated a “Buy” rating on Exxon and maintained a $145 price target, pointing to the company’s corporate plan update and stronger long-term guidance. [3]
UBS’s bullish framing centers on raised 2030 earnings and cash flow guidance (+$5 billion), with the Permian Basin flagged as the primary driver. [4]
A modest FY2026 EPS nudge, and a “Moderate Buy” consensus snapshot
A MarketBeat “instant alert” published today noted Zacks Research slightly increased its FY2026 EPS estimate for Exxon to $7.08 (from $7.07), while citing a broader consensus EPS of $7.43. The same piece described Exxon as carrying an average “Moderate Buy” rating and listed a consensus price target of $129.24. [5]
Barron’s flags Exxon among “stocks to buy for 2026”
Barron’s also included Exxon Mobil in a list of “stocks to buy for 2026,” pointing to the company’s dividend resilience and a long-range EPS growth outlook into 2030. [6]
Technical traders are watching a possible breakout setup
A technical note from ChartMill published today described Exxon as showing a “technical breakout setup,” citing a potential resistance area and an example trade plan (explicitly presented as an educational template rather than advice). [7]
A valuation-focused caution: “pay a premium?”
A Zacks-branded analysis republished via Finviz argues Exxon “has more room to grow” thanks to its upgraded 2030 earnings-growth outlook—while still framing the question around whether investors should pay a premium at current levels. [8]
The fundamental catalyst behind the optimism: Exxon’s raised 2030 plan
The core reason analysts have stayed constructive into mid-December is Exxon’s updated corporate plan (announced Dec. 9), which increased long-term targets without raising overall capital spending guidance—an important combination for investors focused on returns and capital discipline.
In its corporate release, Exxon said it raised its plan to $25 billion in earnings growth and $35 billion in cash flow growth versus 2024 on a constant price and margin basis—a $5 billion improvement in both metrics versus the prior plan. [9]
Exxon also emphasized:
- No increase in capital spending alongside the higher earnings/cash flow outlook [10]
- A structural cost savings plan increased to $20 billion (cumulative vs. 2019) [11]
- An expectation of ~$145 billion in cumulative surplus cash flow through 2030 (using assumptions including a $65 real Brent) [12]
- A targeted return on capital employed of more than 17% by 2030 [13]
The Permian Basin is the headline lever
Both Exxon’s plan materials and analyst commentary point to the Permian as a major source of the updated upside.
Exxon said it expects Permian production to reach ~2.5 million oil-equivalent barrels per day by 2030, about 200,000 boe/d higher than the prior plan. [14]
UBS’s read-through was similar: the firm highlighted the increased volume outlook and estimated incremental cash flows tied to Permian growth assumptions. [15]
Guyana and LNG remain central to growth
In addition to the Permian, Exxon’s plan reiterates the importance of “advantaged assets” including Guyana and LNG, and it expects total upstream production to rise to ~5.5 million oil-equivalent barrels per day by 2030. [16]
Exxon stock forecast: price targets, EPS outlook, and what analysts imply for upside
Forecasts differ slightly depending on the dataset and how many analysts are included—but the direction is consistent: most analysts expect moderate upside from current levels.
Price target consensus (range is wide)
StockAnalysis.com’s snapshot shows:
- 19 analysts covering Exxon
- Consensus rating: “Buy”
- Average price target: $130.74
- Target range: $105 (low) to $158 (high) [17]
That implies roughly ~12% upside over the next year from the price level shown on that page at the time of capture. [18]
Separately, MarketBeat’s summary today cited:
- Consensus price target: $129.24
- Rating: “Moderate Buy”
- A rating mix that includes a substantial number of Holds alongside Buys [19]
How to interpret the spread: Exxon is a mega-cap energy name with a highly commodity-sensitive earnings stream. The difference between a $105 “low” target and a $158 “high” target is essentially the market debating oil, refining margins, and capital returns—more than debating whether Exxon is a viable company.
EPS and revenue forecasts (near-term growth is expected, but not in a straight line)
StockAnalysis.com’s consensus financial forecast data shows:
- FY2025 EPS:6.98 (average estimate shown)
- FY2026 EPS:7.36 (average estimate shown)
- FY2025 revenue:$332.0B (average estimate shown)
- FY2026 revenue:$332.62B (average estimate shown) [20]
Those figures suggest analysts are expecting EPS to improve in FY2026, even if revenue growth looks relatively muted—often a sign that margin mix, efficiency, buybacks, and cost controls are doing more of the work than top-line expansion. [21]
Dividend and buybacks: a key part of the Exxon stock thesis
For many long-term investors, the “Exxon thesis” isn’t just about oil prices—it’s also about whether the company can keep returning cash through cycles.
Exxon’s Q3 2025 release stated the company:
- Increased its fourth-quarter dividend to $1.03 per share (payable Dec. 10, 2025) [22]
- Returned $9.4 billion to shareholders in the quarter via dividends and buybacks [23]
- Remained aligned with its plan to repurchase $20 billion of shares in 2025 [24]
In its Dec. 9 corporate plan update, Exxon also said it intends to maintain that $20 billion repurchase pace through 2026 (assuming reasonable market conditions). [25]
This matters for the stock because buybacks can meaningfully support per-share growth—especially if Exxon’s “advantaged assets” deliver rising volumes and cash flows without a matching rise in spending. [26]
The “energy transition” angle: Exxon narrows focus, pauses hydrogen mega-project
While Exxon continues to position carbon capture and other lower-emission opportunities as long-run businesses, recent reporting highlights a more selective approach to low-carbon spending and project timing.
Reuters reported in late November that Exxon paused plans for a major hydrogen production facility (previously planned at Baytown, Texas), citing weak customer demand and challenges securing committed offtake contracts. [27]
In the wake of Exxon’s broader plan update, the Financial Times reported Exxon would cut low-carbon spending by about a third—from $30 billion to $20 billion over the next five years—while keeping emphasis on high-return core operations. [28]
For XOM shareholders, the near-term implication is mixed:
- Bullish interpretation: less spend on lower-return projects could mean more discipline and better shareholder returns.
- Bearish interpretation: it may limit Exxon’s ability to build new earnings legs if policy and customer demand accelerate faster than expected.
Leadership transition to watch: CFO retirement in early 2026
Exxon also has a notable leadership change ahead. Reuters reported that CFO Kathryn (Kathy) Mikells is set to retire effective Feb. 1, 2026, and she will be succeeded by Neil Hansen (then president of global business solutions). [29]
CFO transitions can matter for how investors model capital allocation, buyback pacing, and spending discipline—so it’s a calendar item worth tracking.
Risks that could move Exxon stock in the coming weeks
Even with bullish targets, Exxon remains exposed to several factors that can swing the stock quickly:
- Oil and gas price volatility: Exxon’s earnings power remains highly sensitive to crude prices and margin cycles. [30]
- Execution risk on megaprojects: Long-cycle developments (including LNG) can be impacted by costs, permitting, and schedule. [31]
- Energy transition uncertainty: Hydrogen economics and customer demand remain uneven, as reflected by Exxon’s paused Baytown hydrogen plan. [32]
- Litigation and regulatory overhang: A Connecticut judge recently rejected Exxon’s bid to dismiss revised claims in the state’s climate deception lawsuit, keeping that case alive. [33]
Bottom line for Dec. 15, 2025: Exxon is “near highs, still favored”—but expectations are rising
On today’s tape, Exxon stock is down modestly, but the broader narrative remains supportive: analysts are leaning on Exxon’s raised 2030 targets, the company’s emphasis on advantaged barrels (Permian, Guyana, LNG), and a capital return story anchored by dividends and buybacks. [34]
The push-and-pull for investors right now is valuation versus quality. With the stock having traded close to a 52-week high and long-range guidance now lifted, Exxon must increasingly deliver the promised execution—especially if crude prices remain choppy into 2026. [35]
References
1. www.investing.com, 2. www.investing.com, 3. www.investing.com, 4. www.investing.com, 5. www.marketbeat.com, 6. www.barrons.com, 7. www.chartmill.com, 8. finviz.com, 9. corporate.exxonmobil.com, 10. corporate.exxonmobil.com, 11. corporate.exxonmobil.com, 12. corporate.exxonmobil.com, 13. corporate.exxonmobil.com, 14. corporate.exxonmobil.com, 15. www.investing.com, 16. corporate.exxonmobil.com, 17. stockanalysis.com, 18. stockanalysis.com, 19. www.marketbeat.com, 20. stockanalysis.com, 21. stockanalysis.com, 22. corporate.exxonmobil.com, 23. corporate.exxonmobil.com, 24. corporate.exxonmobil.com, 25. corporate.exxonmobil.com, 26. corporate.exxonmobil.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.ft.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. www.ctpost.com, 34. corporate.exxonmobil.com, 35. www.investing.com
