December 23, 2025
Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM) is back in the spotlight heading into year-end, with investors balancing two powerful forces that often pull in opposite directions: a newly raised long-term corporate plan built around higher production and shareholder returns, and a 2026 oil-market outlook that many forecasters still frame as “lower-for-longer.”
In Tuesday trading (Dec. 23, 2025), Exxon shares hovered around the $120 level as the market digested the company’s updated strategy, a shifting geopolitical backdrop that briefly lifted crude prices, and a steady stream of Wall Street forecast updates. [1]
XOM stock price today: what investors are seeing on Dec. 23, 2025
As of the latest available market data on Tuesday, Exxon Mobil shares traded at $119.79, up $1.64 (+1.39%) on the day, with an intraday range roughly between $118.20 and $119.97.
A few context points traders are watching as the holiday-shortened stretch begins:
- Market cap: about $505 billion (mega-cap territory, among the largest energy companies globally). [2]
- Recent close: On Monday (Dec. 22), XOM closed at $118.15, up 1.25%, but still under its recent peak. [3]
- 52-week high reference: MarketWatch data noted XOM was about 2.20% below its $120.81 52-week high (set Nov. 11, 2025). [4]
The big fundamental catalyst: Exxon’s raised 2030 plan (and why markets keep coming back to it)
The most important “anchor” for Exxon stock heading into 2026 is the company’s Corporate Plan Update released earlier this month.
Exxon’s investor communications outline a materially more ambitious outlook through 2030—while emphasizing discipline on spending:
- Exxon now expects $25 billion of earnings growth and $35 billion of cash flow growth by 2030 vs. 2024 on a constant price and margin basis. [5]
- The company projects roughly $145 billion of cumulative surplus cash flow through 2030, using an assumption of $65 real Brent (and normalized margins). [6]
- Exxon also raised its structural cost-savings ambition: the plan cites $20 billion of cumulative structural cost savings vs. 2019. [7]
Production growth is central—and the Permian is the centerpiece
Exxon’s updated plan puts production growth back at the center of the equity story:
- Total upstream production targeted at 5.5 million oil-equivalent barrels per day by 2030. [8]
- Production from “advantaged assets” (including Permian, Guyana, and LNG) expected to reach nearly 3.7 million boe/d, or about 65% of total volumes by 2030. [9]
- Reuters also highlighted Exxon’s expected Permian production goal of ~2.5 million boe/d by 2030, alongside a targeted Permian cost-of-supply estimate near $30 per barrel (per Reuters’ summary of the plan update). [10]
Shareholder returns: buybacks remain a core part of the thesis
For many investors, Exxon’s plan reads as a “cash-return machine” narrative:
- Exxon says it remains on track to repurchase $20 billion of shares this year and plans to maintain that pace through 2026, assuming reasonable market conditions. [11]
- Reuters also emphasized that the raised targets come without increasing annual project spending versus prior guidance. [12]
Dividend outlook: Exxon is still pitching durability and scale
Income investors continue to treat Exxon as a “core holding” because of its dividend history and cash-return posture.
In its third-quarter 2025 earnings release, Exxon announced a quarterly dividend of $1.03 per share, described as a 4% increase versus the prior dividend. [13]
Separately, Exxon’s corporate plan update notes that it has increased its annual dividend per share for 43 consecutive years, and described itself as the second largest dividend payer in the S&P 500 at the time of the release. [14]
The “energy tape” matters: oil headlines, geopolitics, and what they imply for Exxon stock
Even with Exxon’s scale and integration, oil prices still shape sentiment around XOM. In late December, the oil narrative has been choppy—featuring both supply-risk spikes and longer-term surplus debates.
Short-term: Venezuela and Russia headlines lifted crude
On Dec. 22, Reuters reported oil prices settled higher after U.S. actions near Venezuela and reported damage to vessels/piers in Russia’s Black Sea region raised supply-disruption concerns. Brent settled at $62.07 and WTI at $58.01 (per Reuters). [15]
On Dec. 23, Reuters also reported PDVSA had begun using tankers as floating storage as U.S. enforcement actions disrupted exports; Reuters cited PDVSA production around 1.1 million bpd and described a growing backlog of cargoes. [16]
Medium-term: more U.S. supply signals
U.S. production expectations remain a key overhang for crude pricing in 2026. On Dec. 23, Reuters reported U.S. drillers added rigs for the first time in three weeks, with total rigs rising to 545; oil rigs rose to 409 while gas rigs were unchanged at 127. [17]
2026: competing “surplus” frameworks
Forecasts for 2026 crude vary widely, and that matters for Exxon’s valuation multiple (and investor appetite for oil majors):
- Reuters reported in December that Goldman Sachs expects oil prices to decline in 2026, with forecasts around Brent $56 and WTI $52 on average (per Reuters’ summary). [18]
- Reuters also reported that OPEC’s outlook implied a small surplus in 2026 based on demand for OPEC+ crude and production assumptions, while noting the International Energy Agency’s forecasts implied supply could exceed demand by about 4 million bpd in 2026. [19]
Why this matters for XOM: Exxon’s long-term surplus cash flow framing uses $65 real Brent assumptions in its plan materials. If the market increasingly prices in a mid-$50s Brent environment for 2026–2027, investors may demand either (a) stronger execution proof on costs and volumes, or (b) more aggressive shareholder returns to keep the equity attractive. [20]
Low-carbon spending: Exxon is leaning into “returns-first” messaging
A recurring theme in 2025 coverage has been Exxon’s approach to lower-emissions businesses: participate where it sees advantaged returns, but keep capital allocation disciplined.
In its plan update, Exxon said it is pursuing about $20 billion of “lower-emission investments” between 2025 and 2030, with roughly 60% focused on reducing emissions for third-party customers—and emphasized that pacing depends on supportive policy and market formation. [21]
The company also highlighted carbon capture and storage progress, citing roughly 9 million metric tons per year of CO₂ under contract with third-party customers and additional CCS projects starting up in 2026. [22]
Analysts have framed this as a strategy designed to avoid “value-destructive” spending while still keeping a credible seat at the table in carbon management—an approach that can appeal to generalist investors focused on free cash flow and returns. [23]
Major Exxon news items investors are tracking into 2026
Beyond broad macro and the corporate plan, several company-specific developments remain on the watchlist.
CFO transition (announced with the plan update)
Reuters reported that Exxon CFO Kathy Mikells is expected to retire effective Feb. 1 due to a non-life-threatening health issue, and would be succeeded by Neil Hansen, president of global business solutions. [24]
Midstream and Permian logistics
Reuters reported in November that Exxon will buy a 40% stake in Enterprise Products Partners’ Bahia natural gas liquids pipeline system, reimbursing about $650 million for its share of project costs to date, and that the companies plan to increase capacity to 1 million bpd after closing (expected early 2026) via expansions and a New Mexico extension. [25]
Hydrogen project caution signal
Reuters reported Exxon paused plans for what would have been a major hydrogen facility due to weak customer demand—an indicator that low-carbon project timelines can be highly dependent on offtake commitments and economics. [26]
Exxon stock forecast: where Wall Street targets sit right now
“Forecast” can mean two different things for investors:
- Company forecasts (Exxon’s own earnings/cash flow framework)
- Street forecasts (analyst price targets, consensus ratings, and earnings estimates)
Analyst price targets and ratings
MarketBeat’s compiled consensus currently shows:
- Consensus rating: “Moderate Buy”
- Average 12-month price target:$129.45
- High / low targets:$158 (high) and $105 (low)
- Rating mix: heavy “hold” representation (13 holds in its breakdown, alongside buys/strong buys). [27]
The takeaway is that analysts, on average, see modest upside—but the “hold-heavy” mix suggests many strategists view Exxon as appropriately priced unless crude strengthens or Exxon execution surprises to the upside.
Why you’ll see different numbers across platforms
A separate estimates aggregator (ValueInvesting.io) shows a different consensus snapshot—illustrating how methodology and coverage sets can lead to divergent “consensus” signals (its page lists an average target around $132.25 with a “HOLD” recommendation trend and EPS/revenue projections). [28]
For investors, the actionable point isn’t which aggregator is “right,” but what’s consistent across them: Exxon is broadly seen as a high-quality, cash-returning integrated oil major—yet still tethered to oil and gas price assumptions.
Technical analysis snapshot: momentum looks strong, but some signals flash “overbought”
Technical indicators are not fundamentals, but they often influence short-term positioning—especially into thinner holiday liquidity.
- Investing.com’s technical summary showed a “Strong Buy” posture with an RSI reading around 75 (commonly interpreted as overbought territory), with many moving averages also pointing higher. [29]
- SwingTradeBot’s levels listed nearby reference points (e.g., support/stop levels) with a “currently above support” read and a cited stop level around $118.76. [30]
What it can mean for XOM today: If oil gives back recent gains or the broader market fades, technically crowded long positioning can unwind quickly. But if crude remains supported and XOM holds above key support zones, trend-following flows can reinforce upside—even without new fundamental headlines.
What to watch next for Exxon stock
Here are the most time-relevant catalysts investors are likely to circle into early 2026:
- 4Q25 earnings prep: Exxon’s investor relations site lists a “4Q25 Earnings Considerations 8‑K” planned for Wednesday, Jan. 7, after market hours (with a reference to the SEC website). [31]
- Next earnings timing: Exxon’s IR calendar does not yet display a scheduled Q4 earnings call date, and third-party calendars often show estimates. For example, MarketBeat notes the company has not confirmed the date but estimates around Friday, Jan. 30, 2026 based on historical timing. [32]
- Oil market direction into 2026: The tug-of-war between geopolitical supply risks (Venezuela/Russia) and longer-term surplus narratives (OPEC vs. IEA vs. bank forecasts) will likely remain the single largest external driver for XOM sentiment. [33]
Bottom line: Exxon’s bull case vs. bear case on Dec. 23, 2025
The bull case: Exxon is pitching a clear playbook—higher production from advantaged assets, structural cost reductions, disciplined capital, and large, sustained shareholder returns (including buybacks) backed by a raised 2030 plan. [34]
The bear case: If the market converges on a 2026–2027 crude environment closer to the mid-$50s Brent forecasts some banks have modeled, Exxon’s equity may struggle to re-rate without either stronger-than-expected execution outcomes or a renewed oil-cycle upturn. [35]
What makes XOM different from smaller E&Ps: Exxon’s scale, downstream/chemicals exposure, and integrated portfolio can soften some volatility—but it cannot fully escape the gravitational pull of global oil and gas pricing.
This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. stockanalysis.com, 3. www.marketwatch.com, 4. www.marketwatch.com, 5. investor.exxonmobil.com, 6. investor.exxonmobil.com, 7. investor.exxonmobil.com, 8. investor.exxonmobil.com, 9. investor.exxonmobil.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. investor.exxonmobil.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. corporate.exxonmobil.com, 14. investor.exxonmobil.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. investor.exxonmobil.com, 21. investor.exxonmobil.com, 22. investor.exxonmobil.com, 23. www.spglobal.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.marketbeat.com, 28. valueinvesting.io, 29. www.investing.com, 30. swingtradebot.com, 31. investor.exxonmobil.com, 32. www.marketbeat.com, 33. www.reuters.com, 34. investor.exxonmobil.com, 35. www.reuters.com
