Exxon Mobil Stock (XOM) on December 8, 2025: Price, Dividend Power, and 2026 Outlook

Updated: December 8, 2025

Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM) is heading into the end of 2025 trading near its 52‑week highs, backed by a 43‑year dividend growth streak, strong cash flows, and a pipeline of multi‑billion‑dollar projects in oil, gas, LNG and low‑carbon solutions. At the same time, softer oil prices and a cautious stance on some hydrogen projects are forcing investors to think carefully about valuation and long‑term strategy. ^[1]

Key Takeaways for Exxon Mobil Stock Today

• Share price & valuation: As of midday on December 8, 2025, Exxon Mobil stock trades around $115–116 per share, down roughly 0.5% on the day, with a market capitalization near $489 billion. The shares sit in the upper end of their 52‑week range of $97.80–$120.81, trade at a trailing P/E of about 16.8x, and offer a dividend yield around 3.5%. ^[2]
• Macro backdrop: Brent crude is hovering around $63 per barrel and WTI near $59–60, down double digits from peaks earlier in the cycle. That has pressured earnings across the sector, but Exxon’s integrated model and cost cuts have helped cushion the impact. ^[3]
• Q3 2025 performance: In Q3 2025, Exxon reported $7.5 billion in earnings ($1.76 per diluted share), $14.8 billion in operating cash flow, and $6.3 billion in free cash flow, while returning $9.4 billion to shareholders through dividends and buybacks. Year‑to‑date, it has generated $39.3 billion in operating cash flow and $20.6 billion in free cash flow. ^[4]
• Dividend strength: Exxon has increased its dividend for 43 consecutive years. The board declared a Q4 2025 dividend of $1.03 per share, a 4% increase versus Q3, implying about $4.12 per share annually and a yield of roughly 3.4–3.6% at current prices. Independent dividend analysts estimate payout ratios of ~55–60% of earnings and free cash flow, calling the dividend “safe” but cyclical. ^[5]
• Analyst sentiment: Wall Street’s overall view on XOM is “Buy/Moderate Buy”, with 12‑month average price targets around $128–131, implying roughly 10–12% upside from current levels. Targets, however, range widely from about $105 on the low end to $145–156 on the high end. ^[6]
• Key current news: Recent headlines include a planned upgrade of the Yanbu refinery in Saudi Arabia, the closure of an older steam cracker in Singapore, potential acquisitions of Lukoil assets including the West Qurna 2 oilfield in Iraq, a 40% stake in Enterprise’s Bahia NGL pipeline in the Permian, the lifting of force majeure on the Rovuma LNG project in Mozambique, and a pause on a major Baytown blue‑hydrogen project due to weak demand. ^[7]
• Upcoming catalyst: Exxon will host a Corporate Plan Update webcast on December 9, 2025, where management is expected to detail capital spending, low‑carbon investments, and shareholder return plans through 2030. ^[8]

Exxon Mobil Stock Today: Price, Range and Valuation

According to real‑time data from StockAnalysis, Exxon Mobil shares trade at $115.96 as of around 12:00 p.m. EST on December 8, 2025, down 0.5% on the day. The company carries a market cap of $489 billion, trailing twelve‑month EPS of $6.89, and a P/E ratio of 16.84x, with a forward P/E around 16x. ^[9]

The stock’s 52‑week range of $97.80–$120.81 shows it is currently trading near the upper end of its recent band. Beta is listed at 0.38, suggesting lower volatility than the broader market—unsurprising for a mega‑cap, diversified energy major. ^[10]

Exxon’s dividend yield of about 3.55% is based on an indicated annual dividend of $4.12 per share. On a trailing basis, the stock’s EV/EBITDA ratio of about 7.6x is richer than the integrated‑oil peer group average around 4.9x, according to Zacks Investment Research, reflecting both Exxon’s balance‑sheet strength and its high‑quality asset base. ^[11]

From a performance standpoint, Zacks notes that XOM shares are up roughly 3.1% over the past year, slightly lagging a roughly 6.5% gain for its industry composite, even as the stock trades near its highs. ^[12]

Macro Backdrop: Softer Oil Prices, Stronger Projects

Crude prices matter enormously for XOM. Brent and WTI are trading near $63 and $59–60 per barrel, respectively, after a year of choppy trading and macro uncertainty. ^[13]

Lower oil prices have:

• Compressed upstream margins, especially compared with the boom years of 2022–2023.
• Been partly offset by volume growth in advantaged regions like Guyana and the Permian Basin, and
• Heightened the importance of cost discipline and integrated refining, chemical and LNG earnings as shock absorbers. ^[14]

In this context, Exxon’s strategy centers on three pillars:

1. Advantaged upstream growth in Guyana, Brazil, the Permian Basin and LNG,
2. High‑value product solutions in refining, chemicals and specialty products, and
3. Scaling a low‑carbon solutions business around carbon capture, hydrogen and lower‑emission fuels—though the pace is now explicitly tied to market demand and policy support. ^[15]

Recent Company News That Matters for XOM Stock

1. Refining & Chemicals: Yanbu Upgrade and Singapore Capacity Cuts

Yanbu refinery in Saudi Arabia

Exxon Mobil, Saudi Aramco and their joint venture Samref have signed an agreement to evaluate a major upgrade of the Samref refinery in Yanbu and expand it into an integrated petrochemical complex. The concept is to move the asset up the value chain into higher‑margin fuels and chemicals, while also improving energy efficiency and emissions. ^[16]

For investors, a Yanbu upgrade signals:

• Continued commitment to long‑lived downstream assets,
• A shift toward higher‑value distillates and petrochemicals, and
• Potential capital spending needs in the latter half of the decade, with returns heavily dependent on global fuels and chemicals demand.

Singapore steam cracker closure

On the other side of the portfolio, Exxon plans to permanently shut the older of its two steam crackers on Singapore’s Jurong Island starting in March, reflecting deep weakness in global petrochemical markets. The move will reduce naphtha demand and is part of a broader industry rationalization of oversupplied capacity. ^[17]

Shutting an older, less efficient unit should:

• Trim operating costs,
• Remove lower‑margin capacity, and
• Potentially improve utilization at more advanced units that can handle a broader range of feedstocks.

Overall, the net effect is Exxon exiting marginal assets while doubling down on integrated, higher‑value hubs like Yanbu and Baytown.

2. Upstream and Midstream: Iraq, Permian NGLs and LNG

Potential Lukoil asset acquisitions and West Qurna 2

Reuters reports that Exxon has joined Chevron in examining potential purchases of Lukoil’s international assets, including stakes in Kazakhstan’s Karachaganak and Tengiz fields and, importantly, the West Qurna 2 oilfield in Iraq. ^[18]

Separate reporting indicates Exxon has approached the Iraqi oil ministry about buying Lukoil’s majority stake in West Qurna 2, one of Iraq’s largest oilfields, which accounts for roughly 0.5% of global oil output. Any deal would require regulatory clearance under U.S. sanctions rules and agreement with Iraq, and there is no guarantee a transaction will occur. ^[19]

For shareholders, this is a medium‑term optionality story: a successful acquisition could boost reserves and production, but would also add geopolitical and execution risk.

40% stake in Enterprise’s Bahia NGL pipeline

Exxon is also deepening its midstream footprint in the U.S. Permian Basin. Enterprise Products Partners has agreed to sell Exxon a 40% stake in its 550‑mile Bahia natural gas liquids (NGL) pipeline, which links the Midland and Delaware basins to Enterprise’s Mont Belvieu fractionation hub in Texas. Exxon will reimburse about $650 million of project costs and co‑fund an expansion that will lift capacity from 600,000 barrels per day to 1 million barrels per day by adding pumping stations and a 92‑mile extension to Exxon’s Cowboy gas processing plant in New Mexico. ^[20]

The extension—branded the Cowboy Connector—is expected to be completed by Q4 2027, positioning Exxon to monetize growing NGL output as Permian volumes rise an estimated 30% from 2024 to 2030. ^[21]

Mozambique LNG: Force majeure lifted

Exxon has lifted force majeure on the long‑delayed Rovuma LNG project in Mozambique, which was halted in 2021 due to security concerns. The company now expects to make a final investment decision in 2026, with first LNG around 2030, subject to security and market conditions. ^[22]

Resuming Rovuma puts one of Exxon’s largest LNG options back on the table and aligns with its goal of doubling LNG sales to around 40 million tonnes per year by 2030, as highlighted in recent commentary from The Motley Fool. ^[23]

3. Low‑Carbon Strategy: Ambitious Plans, Slower Hydrogen

Exxon’s Corporate Plan outlines up to $30 billion in lower‑emissions investment opportunities between 2025 and 2030, with roughly 65% aimed at reducing third‑party emissions via carbon capture, hydrogen and lithium projects. ^[24]

However, the pace of some of those projects is now in question:

• A detailed report from Energy Connects explains that changes to U.S. tax incentives (notably the 45V hydrogen credit) and weaker customer appetite could delay parts of Exxon’s low‑carbon portfolio, including hydrogen for AI data centers and lithium. CEO Darren Woods has emphasized that projects must be market‑driven and deliver competitive returns rather than rely indefinitely on subsidies. ^[25]
• In a separate interview with Reuters, Woods confirmed that Exxon has paused plans for what would have been one of the world’s largest blue‑hydrogen facilities at Baytown, Texas, after struggling to secure long‑term offtake contracts at acceptable prices. Exxon and partners have already invested about $500 million in the project and still see long‑term need for hydrogen, but will wait for clearer demand signals before making a multi‑billion‑dollar commitment. ^[26]

Taken together, the message to investors is that low‑carbon projects remain central to Exxon’s strategy, but timelines and capital deployment will flex with policy and customer demand, rather than proceeding on an aggressive fixed schedule.

Q3 2025 Results: Earnings, Cash Flow and Capex

Exxon’s third‑quarter 2025 report reinforced its ability to generate cash in a weaker commodity environment: ^[27]

• Earnings: $7.5 billion, or $1.76 per diluted share, up from $7.1 billion in Q2.
• Operating cash flow: $14.8 billion.
• Free cash flow: $6.3 billion.
• Shareholder distributions: $9.4 billion for the quarter—$4.2 billion in dividends and $5.1 billion in share repurchases.
• YTD 2025 earnings: $22.3 billion, down from $26.1 billion in the same period of 2024, mainly due to lower crude prices, weak chemical margins and higher depreciation.
• YTD operating cash flow: $39.3 billion; YTD free cash flow: $20.6 billion.

The company highlighted several operational milestones:

• Record quarterly production in Guyana, exceeding 700,000 barrels per day, with the Yellowtail development starting up four months early and under budget.
• Record Permian production of nearly 1.7 million oil‑equivalent barrels per day, aided by proprietary technologies such as lightweight proppant.
• Eight of ten key projects scheduled for 2025 were already online by the end of Q3, with the remaining two on track. ^[28]

On capital spending, Exxon expects full‑year 2025 cash capex to come in slightly below the lower end of its $27–29 billion guidance range (excluding acquisitions), supporting a narrative of disciplined investment despite large growth opportunities. ^[29]

Dividend Profile: A 43‑Year Growth Streak

Dividend safety is a core part of the Exxon Mobil equity story.

Track record and current payout

• Exxon has increased its dividend for 43 consecutive years, including during the 2020 oil price crash. ^[30]
• The Q4 2025 dividend of $1.03 per share represents a 4% increase from the previous quarterly payout of $0.99 and implies $4.12 per share annually. ^[31]
• At a share price around $116, that equates to a 3.5% dividend yield, competitive among large‑cap U.S. equities. ^[32]

Zacks notes that Exxon’s dividend per share has grown at an average rate of roughly 5.8% annually over 43 years, stepping up from $0.95 in Q4 2023 to $0.99 in 2024 and $1.03 in 2025. ^[33]

Coverage and balance sheet

A recent 24/7 Wall St. analysis estimates Exxon’s: ^[34]

• Earnings payout ratio at about 58%, based on trailing EPS near $6.9 and an annual dividend around $3.96–$4.12.
• Free‑cash‑flow payout ratio around 54–55%, using 2024 free cash flow of roughly $30–31 billion versus about $16–17 billion in dividends.
• Net debt‑to‑EBITDA at only ~0.86x and interest coverage above 50x, pointing to considerable balance‑sheet flexibility.

The same analysis concludes that the dividend looks “safe” under current assumptions but warns that extended periods of crude prices below about $60 per barrel could put pressure on payout growth, though not necessarily the base dividend, given Exxon’s strong balance sheet. ^[35]

In Q3 alone, dividends of $4.2 billion were covered more than 3x by operating cash flow and comfortably by free cash flow, even after capex. ^[36]

Analyst Ratings and 12‑Month Price Targets

Different analyst platforms give slightly different numbers, but the picture is broadly consistent: Exxon is widely viewed as a high‑quality integrated major with moderate upside and a solid income profile.

Street consensus

• StockAnalysis, aggregating 16 analysts, lists an average 12‑month price target of $129.50, about 11.7% above the current price, with an overall rating of “Buy.” ^[37]
• MarketBeat, drawing on a broader set of firms, reports a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” with 2 Strong Buys, 8 Buys and 11 Holds, and an average target of $127.89 (roughly 10% upside). ^[38]
• TipRanks data (via Benzinga and other feeds) suggests 24 Buys, 4 Holds and 0 Sells over the last three months, with an average target around $131. ^[39]

Recent rating moves underscore the nuanced view:

• BNP Paribas Exane upgraded Exxon from “Underperform” to “Neutral” on December 8, 2025, with a $114 price target, implying slight downside from current levels and reflecting concerns about valuation after the recent run‑up. ^[40]
• UBS initiated coverage in late November with a “Buy” rating and a $145 target, highlighting Exxon’s advantaged upstream assets, integrated portfolio and long‑term low‑carbon optionality. ^[41]
• Other big banks’ targets range from around $105 (RBC’s more cautious stance) to $156 (Wells Fargo’s bullish scenario), indicating a fairly wide spread of views on oil prices, LNG growth and energy‑transition risks. ^[42]

Valuation vs. peers

Zacks points out that XOM trades at an EV/EBITDA multiple above the industry average, and currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) alongside Chevron and BP. That reflects solid fundamentals but also the market’s recognition of Exxon’s premium quality and balance sheet in its valuation. ^[43]

Short‑Term Technical Picture

Technical‑analysis service StockInvest currently classifies Exxon as a “buy candidate”: ^[44]

• The stock closed at $116.54 on Friday, December 5, with controlled daily volatility around 1.6%.
• It has been in a weak but rising short‑term trend, and their model projects a 4–5% price increase over the next three months, with a 90% probability band roughly between $119 and $127.
• Support is seen around $113.95, with resistance near $117–118.

These are algorithmic, price‑based forecasts and should be considered tactical trading inputs, not long‑term investment advice. But they do reinforce the idea that the stock is not far from resistance levels while still in an upward trend.

Strategic Themes Shaping Exxon’s 2026 Outlook

Looking beyond day‑to‑day price moves, several high‑level themes are likely to drive XOM’s earnings and multiple over the next 12–24 months:

1. Guyana and Permian growth: Record production in both regions, combined with Exxon’s cost‑reduction program (over $14 billion in structural cost savings since 2019), should continue to support attractive upstream margins even in a softer price environment. ^[45]
2. LNG expansion: With Rovuma LNG back on track and multiple projects in Qatar, Mozambique, Papua New Guinea and the U.S., Exxon is positioning itself as a top-tier LNG supplier, aiming to roughly double LNG volumes by 2030. ^[46]
3. Integrated midstream and product solutions: Investments like the Bahia NGL pipeline stake and Yanbu upgrade are intended to lock in flows from advantaged upstream assets into high‑margin downstream and chemical markets. ^[47]
4. Low‑carbon solutions with flexible timing: The decision to pause the Baytown hydrogen project while still planning up to $30 billion in low‑carbon investments through 2030 shows Exxon’s desire to keep optionality without over‑committing capital until demand and policy are more predictable. ^[48]
5. Capital returns: With YTD 2025 shareholder distributions already at $27.8 billion (dividends plus buybacks), and leverage still low, management clearly prioritizes returning cash to shareholders while maintaining investment in high‑return projects. ^[49]

Key Risks to the Exxon Mobil Investment Case

Even for a company of Exxon’s scale, investors should weigh several material risks:

• Commodity price risk: Prolonged periods of oil prices well below today’s ~$60 Brent/WTI levels could pressure earnings, capex flexibility and, eventually, dividend growth. Some dividend‑focused analysts explicitly flag sustained sub‑$60 crude as a stress scenario. ^[50]
• Project execution and cost inflation: Large projects like Rovuma LNG, Guyana developments, the Bahia pipeline extension and any potential Lukoil asset acquisitions require billions in capital and carry execution, cost and regulatory risk. ^[51]
• Geopolitical risk: Exxon’s global footprint includes exposure to Iraq, Mozambique and other politically complex regions, where security, sanctions and contract terms can change quickly. ^[52]
• Energy transition and policy risk: Shifts in climate policy, tax incentives (such as U.S. hydrogen credits) and consumer behavior can alter project economics almost overnight, as the Baytown hydrogen pause illustrates. ^[53]
• ESG and litigation risk: As one of the world’s largest oil and gas producers, Exxon remains a focal point for ESG campaigns, climate litigation and regulatory scrutiny, any of which could affect costs, access to capital or demand over time.

Bottom Line: How Does Exxon Mobil Stock Look as of December 8, 2025?

Putting it together:

• Fundamentals: Exxon is producing strong earnings and cash flow relative to a subdued commodity backdrop, with record volumes in Guyana and the Permian and a growing LNG portfolio. ^[54]
• Income profile: A 43‑year dividend growth streak, payout ratios around 55–60%, and a robust balance sheet make XOM a core income holding for many investors, though still tied to oil‑cycle risk. ^[55]
• Valuation: The stock is near its 52‑week highs and trades at a premium to peers on EV/EBITDA, but consensus targets still price in mid‑single to low‑teens percentage upside over 12 months, on top of the ~3.5% dividend yield. ^[56]
• Sentiment: Wall Street and many independent analysts lean constructively bullish, seeing Exxon as a high‑quality way to gain exposure to global energy demand and LNG growth. However, some houses have shifted to more neutral stances at current prices, citing valuation and macro uncertainty. ^[57]

For investors following XOM, the near‑term watch list includes:

• Management’s Corporate Plan Update on December 9,
• Q4 2025 earnings, expected in late January 2026,
• Progress (or setbacks) on West Qurna 2/Lukoil assets,
• The pace of Rovuma LNG and other LNG FIDs, and
• Any further signals on the timing and scale of low‑carbon investments, especially hydrogen and carbon capture. ^[58]

Important Disclaimer

This article is for informational and educational purposes only and is not investment, tax or legal advice. It does not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation or risk tolerance. Always do your own research and, if needed, consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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