As of 2:44 p.m. ET in New York on Friday, December 26, 2025, U.S. markets are open and trading in what many desks describe as a thin, post‑Christmas session.
Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM) is trading slightly lower midday, even as the broader market hovers near record levels and crude markets remain headline-driven. Here’s what’s moving XOM right now, the most relevant company-specific developments, and the key items investors typically monitor before the next trading session.
XOM stock price today in context
Exxon Mobil shares are at about $118.58, down 0.54% versus the prior close, with an intraday range of roughly $118.54 to $119.54. About 4.27 million shares have traded so far today.
While the S&P 500 is only modestly lower in the holiday-quiet session, energy-linked price action has been more volatile. The widely followed SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is essentially flat on the day.
On the commodity side, oil has been choppy: an Associated Press midday market update noted oil prices were down (U.S. crude nearly 2%, Brent more than 1%) during the session. [1] Meanwhile, Reuters reported earlier Friday that traders were weighing geopolitical and supply risks in a thin market. [2]
Oil-linked ETFs are also weaker intraday: the United States Oil Fund (USO) and United States Brent Crude Oil Fund (BNO) are both down around the 2%–3% range today.
Why Exxon Mobil stock is trading lower today
In sessions like December 26, price moves can look “cleaner” than usual (or more erratic) because liquidity is often lighter after the Christmas holiday. The AP described the day as quiet trading with light volume as U.S. stocks hovered near record highs. [3]
For Exxon Mobil stock, the near-term drivers tend to boil down to three levers:
- Oil and gas pricing expectations (even small revisions can move integrated majors).
- Investor appetite for dividends and buybacks versus growth risk.
- Company-specific catalysts: long-term production plans, project approvals, and portfolio moves.
Today, with crude prices soft and participation thin, Exxon’s modest dip fits the broader “energy complex” tone rather than a single Exxon-only headline.
The biggest Exxon headline this month: a bigger 2030 plan and a CFO transition
One of the most market-relevant recent developments for Exxon is its updated long-term plan.
Reuters reported on December 9, 2025 that Exxon is targeting $25 billion in earnings growth from 2024 to 2030, alongside higher production expectations—leaning heavily on Guyana and the Permian Basin—and that CFO Kathy Mikells will retire effective Feb. 1, to be succeeded by Neil Hansen (then president of global business solutions). [4]
Exxon’s own release on the plan adds important detail for investors focused on capital discipline. The company said it expects roughly $145 billion in cumulative surplus cash flow over the next five years (at an assumption of $65 real Brent) and projects return on capital employed reaching over 17% in 2030. [5]
Why that matters for XOM stock now:
- Exxon is telling investors it can grow cash flow without increasing capital spending versus prior guidance, a key support for the “shareholder returns” thesis. [6]
- A CFO change—especially one tied to a health-related retirement—often puts a spotlight on continuity of capital allocation, including buybacks and dividends. [7]
Core growth engine: Guyana and the Permian keep doing the heavy lifting
Exxon’s recent quarterly narrative has remained consistent: higher output from “advantaged” assets helps offset weaker commodity pricing or softer downstream/chemicals conditions.
In its third-quarter 2025 coverage, Reuters reported Exxon beat estimates with adjusted earnings of $1.88 per share versus an LSEG-compiled consensus of $1.82, supported by higher production in Guyana and the Permian. Total oil and gas production was cited at 4.8 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, including record output in those two regions. [8]
Guyana expansion: the Hammerhead project
Exxon has also continued to advance Guyana development. Reuters reported the company approved a $6.8 billion investment for its Hammerhead project (its seventh development there), aiming at long-run capacity growth in the Stabroek Block. [9] Exxon’s own announcement emphasized the pace of development and included comments from upstream president Dan Ammann about setting a “new standard” in the country. [10]
For investors, this matters because Guyana barrels are widely viewed as high-margin, long-life production—the kind of output that can underpin a dividend/buyback model through price cycles.
Permian infrastructure: NGL pipelines and processing
In November, Reuters reported Exxon would acquire a 40% stake in Enterprise Products Partners’ Bahia natural gas liquids pipeline, reimbursing about $650 million for its share of project costs to date, with plans to expand capacity to 1 million barrels per day after closing (expected by early 2026). Enterprise co-CEO Jim Teague called the pipeline an “essential artery” as Permian gas/NGL volumes grow. [11]
This is the kind of “midstream-adjacent” move equity investors often like: it helps de-bottleneck volumes and can reduce the risk that production growth runs into takeaway constraints.
Chemicals and refining: a quieter risk factor that can suddenly matter
Exxon is an integrated major, which can be a stabilizer when crude prices weaken—but petrochemicals can also become a drag when the cycle turns.
Reuters reported in early December that ExxonMobil plans to wind down operations at an older steam cracker in Singapore starting in March, with shutdown expected to be complete by June, amid a broader global petrochemicals trend to reduce capacity in a loss-making, overbuilt environment. [12]
That story is relevant to XOM stock because:
- chemicals margins can pressure earnings when global overcapacity rises (often tied to China’s buildout);
- rationalizing capacity can be viewed as a discipline signal—but it also underscores that not all segments are enjoying “Guyana-style” economics.
Russia exposure returns to the headlines: Sakhalin-1 deadline extended
Another timely development is geopolitical, and it has balance-sheet implications.
Reuters reported on December 24, 2025 that Russian President Vladimir Putin extended the deadline for the sale of Exxon’s stake in the Sakhalin‑1 project by one year, to January 1, 2027. Reuters also noted Exxon took a $4.6 billion impairment charge on its 30% operator stake in April 2022, and that sources previously described a non-binding agreement involving Exxon and Rosneft aimed at helping Exxon recoup losses. [13]
This isn’t necessarily a day-to-day trading catalyst, but it is the type of headline that can influence:
- investor perception of geopolitical tail risk,
- the possibility (however uncertain) of recoveries over time,
- and the “noise factor” in a holiday session.
Layoffs and European regulation: a background theme investors still track
In late September, Reuters reported Exxon would cut 2,000 jobs in a restructuring affecting Canada and Europe, and the company linked the move to aligning its office footprint with its operating model. The Reuters story also noted Exxon CEO Darren Woods had criticized an EU sustainability law that could impose significant penalties tied to supply-chain environmental requirements. [14]
For stock watchers, this lands in the “cost structure and regulatory risk” bucket—usually not a one-day mover, but relevant to long-horizon margin assumptions.
Analyst forecasts for Exxon Mobil stock: targets cluster in the low $130s
Wall Street’s consensus is not unanimous, but published target ranges generally imply moderate upside from today’s levels.
MarketWatch lists a target range with high ~$158, low ~$109, and an average around ~$131.68, and also points to an expected Q4 2025 earnings report around January 30, 2026. [15] Barron’s shows a similar target set and also references a Jan. 30, 2026 earnings timing. [16]
Using today’s ~$118.58 price, an average target around ~$131–$132 equates to roughly ~11% upside (before dividends). [17]
On earnings expectations, Yahoo Finance noted in late October that analysts expected FY 2025 EPS to dip year-over-year (reflecting softer commodity pricing versus stronger comparison periods). [18]
Valuation snapshot: market cap and P/E ratios
Depending on the data source and timing, Exxon is generally valued as a mega-cap energy bellwether.
Yahoo Finance listed Exxon with a market cap around $502.77B (as of Dec. 24), with a trailing P/E around 17.33 and forward P/E around 16.42. [19]
A key interpretation point for investors: for integrated energy companies, P/E multiples can compress or expand quickly because “E” (earnings) moves with commodity prices and margin cycles.
Dividend and buybacks: a big part of the XOM investment case
Dividend
Exxon’s most recently listed quarterly dividend was $1.03 per share, with a pay date shown as December 10, 2025 and an ex-dividend date in mid-November. [20]
At today’s stock price (~$118.58), that $1.03 quarterly payout implies an annualized dividend of about $4.12 per share—roughly a ~3.5% yield (approximate, varies with price). [21]
In its 2030 plan release, Exxon stated it has increased its annual dividend per share for 43 consecutive years and described itself as the second-largest dividend payer in the S&P 500. [22]
Buybacks
Reuters reported earlier in 2025 that Exxon’s repurchase pace put it on track to meet an annual share repurchase goal of $20 billion, alongside quarterly dividend payments. [23]
For XOM stock, the interaction between free cash flow, buyback cadence, and oil prices is often the heart of the bull/bear debate.
The LNG question investors are increasingly asking: tailwind—or bubble risk?
Exxon’s updated plan includes growth in LNG, but the broader LNG market is entering a pivotal period.
The International Energy Agency has warned that the expansion in liquefaction capacity could translate into a large net increase in LNG supply by 2030—potentially pressuring prices and reshaping trade flows. [24] Reuters similarly summarized IEA findings that roughly 300 bcm of new annual LNG export capacity is scheduled to start operating by 2030—around a 50% increase in available supply. [25]
On the more skeptical end, Reuters Breakingviews columnist Antony Currie argued today that renewables (solar, wind, batteries) could make life harder for LNG, describing the risk of an LNG “crash” as supply rises and demand growth proves less durable than hoped. [26]
For Exxon investors, the practical takeaway is balance:
- LNG is a strategic growth pillar for majors.
- But the industrywide supply wave means project economics may become more sensitive to execution quality, contract structures, and market timing.
What investors should watch into the close and before the next session
Even though the market is open right now, many investors plan “the next move” based on what happens late in the day—especially in holiday-thin conditions.
Here are the key items most relevant to Exxon Mobil stock (XOM) heading into the next trading session:
- Crude direction and volatility: crude has been headline-driven around supply risk and oversupply concerns in thin trading. Moves can be exaggerated when volume is light. [27]
- Energy sector tone: if oil remains weak while broader indexes hold firm, integrated majors can decouple—but sustained oil weakness tends to pressure sentiment.
- Any follow-through on Exxon’s long-term plan narrative: investors will keep parsing the “more cash flow growth, no more capex” message, plus the CFO transition. [28]
- Approaching earnings window: multiple market calendars point to late January 2026 (around Jan. 30) for Exxon’s next earnings report. Options markets and positioning can start to shift well before the date. [29]
- Guyana and Permian execution milestones: project approvals (like Hammerhead) and infrastructure capacity (like Bahia/Cowboy Connector) are tangible building blocks for Exxon’s output targets. [30]
- Chemicals cycle headlines: the Singapore steam cracker wind-down is a reminder that petrochemicals remain structurally challenged in parts of the market. [31]
- Geopolitical exposure updates: the Sakhalin-1 extension is a “slow burn” story that can resurface quickly depending on policy shifts. [32]
Bottom line: In today’s open session, Exxon shares are modestly lower, tracking a softer tone in oil-linked assets during thin post‑holiday trading. The bigger narrative for XOM going into 2026 is whether Exxon’s advantaged production growth (Guyana/Permian) and its cash-return framework (dividends + buybacks) can keep offsetting a global backdrop that includes LNG supply growth and uneven petrochemicals conditions. [33]
References
1. apnews.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. apnews.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. corporate.exxonmobil.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. corporate.exxonmobil.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.marketwatch.com, 16. www.barrons.com, 17. www.marketwatch.com, 18. finance.yahoo.com, 19. finance.yahoo.com, 20. www.morningstar.com, 21. www.morningstar.com, 22. corporate.exxonmobil.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.iea.org, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.marketwatch.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. www.reuters.com
