Exxon Mobil (XOM) Stock Before the Market Opens on December 8, 2025: Price, Dividend Safety, Analyst Targets and Key Catalysts

Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM) heads into Monday’s U.S. open on December 8, 2025, trading near the upper end of its 52‑week range, supported by firm oil prices and a fresh wave of positive coverage around its dividend and long‑term cash‑flow profile. ^[1]

At the same time, Wall Street expects only single‑digit upside from current levels, and official energy forecasts are pointing to lower crude prices in 2026 – a key risk for an oil‑leveraged giant like Exxon. ^[2]

Below is what traders and long‑term investors should know before the opening bell on Monday.

Key things to know about XOM before Monday’s open (December 8, 2025)

Last close & after‑hours: XOM closed Friday, December 5, at $116.54, down 0.51% on the day, with after‑hours trading nudging it to about $116.94 (+0.34%). ^[3]
Flat but firm week: Over the week of December 1–5, the stock was essentially flat (down less than 0.1%) and remains close to its 52‑week high of $120.81. ^[4]
Dividend in focus: A new deep‑dive from 24/7 Wall St rates Exxon’s 43‑year dividend growth streak as “safe,” with payout ratios around the mid‑50% range on both earnings and free cash flow, supported by a strong balance sheet. ^[5]
Analyst consensus: Wall Street’s median 12‑month target sits around $126–$129, implying roughly 8–10% upside from Friday’s close, with a consensus rating around Neutral / Moderate Buy. ^[6]
Near‑term catalyst: Exxon’s Corporate Plan Update webcast is scheduled for Tuesday, December 9, 2025 (9:00–10:00 a.m. CST) and is likely to be the biggest company‑specific catalyst of the week. ^[7]
Macro backdrop: Oil just finished a second straight week of gains; Brent settled around $63.75 and WTI around $60.08 on Friday as markets price in a possible Fed rate cut at the December 9–10 meeting. ^[8]

1. Where Exxon Mobil stock stands heading into December 8, 2025

On Friday, December 5, Exxon Mobil shares:

Closed: $116.54
Day change: –0.51%
After‑hours quote: ~$116.94 (+0.34%)
52‑week range: $97.80 – $120.81 ^[9]

Over the week of December 1–5, the stock opened at $116.10 on Monday and finished at $116.54 on Friday – effectively flat, despite moderate daily swings. ^[10]

From a valuation standpoint, data compiled by TickerNerd and MarketBeat show:

Market cap: ~$495–497 billion
Trailing P/E: ~17x
Price‑to‑sales: ~1.5x
Net margin: ~9%
Return on equity: ~11% ^[11]

These are not “deep‑value” levels, but they’re also not extreme for a mega‑cap integrated oil company near the top of its cycle.

2. Dividend safety is back in the headlines

43 years of dividend growth – and counting

Exxon has just increased its quarterly dividend to $1.03 per share (up from $0.99), payable on December 10, 2025, marking 43 consecutive years of annual dividend growth. ^[12]

At Friday’s close, this works out to:

Annual dividend: $4.12 per share (using the new quarterly rate)
Forward dividend yield: roughly 3.5% at ~$116.5 per share (24/7 Wall St quotes 3.38% based on a $3.96 annualized figure prior to the latest bump). ^[13]

24/7 Wall St: “Dividend is safe, but cyclicality remains”

A fresh analysis from 24/7 Wall St on December 7 lays out the current dividend math: ^[14]

Earnings payout ratio: about 57–58% (using trailing EPS around $6.88 vs. a $3.96 dividend).
Free‑cash‑flow payout ratio: around 54%, based on 2024 free cash flow of roughly $30.7 billion and dividend payments of about $16.7 billion.
Balance sheet: low leverage, with debt metrics the author describes as “conservative” and interest coverage above 50x.

The piece concludes that the dividend appears secure under current conditions, but that investors should keep an eye on the oil price:

The payout is most comfortable if crude holds around or above the high‑$60s to $70 per barrel.
A sustained drop below roughly $60 would pressure earnings and free cash flow enough that dividend growth could slow, even if the base dividend remains intact due to the strength of Exxon’s balance sheet. ^[15]

In other words, heading into Monday’s open, the market is being reminded that Exxon’s dividend is both a strength and a direct play on global oil prices.

3. Recent results: big cash flows, but earnings down from the peak

Exxon’s most recent reported quarter is Q3 2025, released on October 31. Key highlights: ^[16]

Q3 2025 earnings:$7.5 billion
EPS (diluted):$1.76
Cash flow from operations:$14.8 billion
Free cash flow:$6.3 billion
Shareholder distributions in Q3 alone:$9.4 billion
- Dividends: $4.2 billion
- Share repurchases: $5.1 billion

Year‑to‑date through Q3 2025:

Earnings:$22.3 billion, down from $26.1 billion in the same period of 2024.
Cash flow from operations:$39.3 billion
Free cash flow:$20.6 billion
Total shareholder returns:$27.8 billion
- Dividends: $12.9 billion
- Buybacks: $14.9 billion ^[17]

The decline in earnings versus the 2022–2023 boom years reflects lower crude prices, weaker chemical margins, and higher depreciation, partially offset by:

Strong volume growth in the Permian Basin and Guyana
Ongoing structural cost reductions
Record refining throughput in the energy products segment ^[18]

From a balance‑sheet perspective, Q3 data show:

Debt‑to‑capital ratio: about 13.5%
Net‑debt‑to‑capital: about 9.5%
Cash balance: roughly $13.9 billion ^[19]

That places Exxon at the conservative end of the oil major spectrum, which is a key reason dividend analysts feel comfortable with the current payout even in a moderating earnings environment.

4. What Wall Street expects from XOM now

Consensus targets: modest upside, neutral to moderately bullish stance

TickerNerd’s December 7 synthesis of 37 Wall Street analysts shows: ^[20]

Median 12‑month price target:$126
High target:$156 (Wells Fargo)
Low target:$105 (RBC)

From Friday’s close at $116.54:

Median target implies about 8.1% upside.
High target implies around 34% upside.
Low target implies roughly 10% downside.

Rating distribution:

13 Buy
13 Hold
1 Sell

Overall, that maps to a “Neutral” or “Moderate Buy” consensus.

MarketBeat’s December 7 coverage lines up with this picture, citing: ^[21]

Consensus rating: Moderate Buy
Average target price: about $128.67
Recent analyst commentary:
- Bank of America: Neutral, target $120
- Mizuho: Neutral, target $123
- UBS: Buy, target $145
- Other services (Wall Street Zen, Weiss Ratings) running with various Hold‑style views.

Net‑net: the Street isn’t screaming “deep value,” but Exxon is still widely seen as a high‑quality, cash‑generating energy play with modest upside from here, assuming oil prices don’t roll over.

5. Strategic headlines investors should have on their radar

5.1. Growth barrels: Permian and Guyana

Exxon’s Q3 release underscores that growth is still very much alive in its core upstream portfolio: ^[22]

Record production in the Permian: nearly 1.7 million oil‑equivalent barrels per day.
Guyana ramp‑up: gross production exceeded 700,000 barrels per day, with the Yellowtail project starting up four months ahead of schedule and under budget.
Yellowtail’s initial capacity pushes total installed capacity in Guyana above 900,000 barrels per day.
The company also sanctioned the Hammerhead project (expected to add another 150,000 barrels per day by 2029) and acquired more than 80,000 net acres in the Permian from Sinochem.

These projects mean Exxon should be able to grow production even in a lower‑price environment, a key support for long‑term cash flows.

5.2. Chemicals under pressure: Singapore cracker shutdown

On the other side of the portfolio, chemicals are in a cyclical downturn. Industry coverage – summarized in TickerNerd’s news feed – notes that Exxon plans to permanently shut its older steam cracker in Singapore’s Jurong Island starting in March, amid “deep distress” in global petrochemicals caused by overcapacity and weak margins. ^[23]

This is likely a capacity rationalization move:

Near‑term: potential restructuring costs and lower volumes.
Long‑term: leaner assets, potentially higher utilization and margins when the cycle turns.

5.3. Possible Iraqi oilfield deal: West Qurna 2

Reuters‑sourced reporting, again summarized by TickerNerd, says Exxon has been in talks with Iraqi officials about buying Lukoil’s majority stake in the giant West Qurna 2 oilfield. ^[24]

If a deal goes through, it could:

Increase Exxon’s exposure to large, long‑life conventional reserves.
Add geopolitical risk and capital‑allocation questions (how much will Exxon be willing to pay, and at what assumed oil price?).

There’s no confirmation of a transaction yet, but it’s a headline risk (or opportunity) to watch in coming weeks.

5.4. Energy transition angle: move into battery materials

Within Q3 results, Exxon highlighted its acquisition of key assets from Superior Graphite, giving it a foothold in the battery anode materials market. ^[25]

This is still small relative to its core oil and gas business, but for investors focused on the long‑term energy transition, it’s another data point showing Exxon trying to build optionality in low‑carbon or adjacent technologies while still leaning heavily on hydrocarbons.

6. Macro drivers: oil prices, Fed meeting and EIA outlook

Oil has bounced – but official forecasts see prices easing next year

Oil prices have quietly strengthened into early December:

Brent crude: settled around $63.75/bbl on December 5
WTI: closed near $60.08/bbl ^[26]

Reuters attributes the recent move to: ^[27]

Rising odds of a Fed rate cut at the December 9–10 meeting (supportive for economic growth and energy demand).
Ongoing geopolitical uncertainty around Russia and Venezuela, which could constrain supply.

However, the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Short‑Term Energy Outlook (updated November 12) paints a more cautious medium‑term picture: ^[28]

Global oil inventories are expected to keep building through 2026, putting downward pressure on prices.
The EIA forecasts Brent averaging about $69/bbl in 2025, but only around $55/bbl in 2026.
U.S. crude production is expected to hold near record levels (around 13.6 million barrels per day in 2025–2026).

For Exxon, this combination means:

Near term (next few quarters): current prices in the low‑60s are supportive of strong cash flows and dividend coverage.
Medium term (2026+): if the EIA is right and prices drift lower, profit margins and free cash flow could compress, making ongoing buybacks and future dividend increases more sensitive to execution and cost control.

Fed meeting and EIA update this week

Two macro events land after Monday’s open:

Federal Reserve meeting (Dec 9–10, 2025): markets are pricing in a high probability of a 25 bp rate cut, which, if confirmed, could underpin risk assets and cyclicals like energy – at least initially. ^[29]
Next EIA Short‑Term Energy Outlook (Dec 9 release): updated oil price and demand projections could shift sentiment across the entire energy sector. ^[30]

Both of these will likely matter more to multi‑day and multi‑week price action than to the very first trades on Monday morning, but traders may start positioning ahead of them.

7. Near‑term catalysts specific to Exxon this week

Heading into the week that starts with Monday, December 8, Exxon has a packed calendar:

Corporate Plan Update – Tuesday, Dec 9 (9:00–10:00 a.m. CST)
- Virtual webcast with Q&A from Exxon’s Management Committee.
- The company typically uses this platform to outline multi‑year capital spending, production targets, and shareholder‑return priorities. ^[31]
- Markets will watch closely for:
  - Updated production and CapEx guidance in the Permian and Guyana
  - Any change in buyback pace beyond the 2025 $20 billion program
  - Commentary on petrochemical strategy, including the Singapore cracker shutdown
  - Progress on low‑carbon and battery‑materials initiatives
Dividend payment – Wednesday, Dec 10
- Investors of record as of November 14 will receive the new $1.03 quarterly dividend. ^[32]
Potential news flow on West Qurna 2 or other deals
- Any confirmation, pricing, or political developments around a possible deal in Iraq could move the stock. ^[33]

For Monday’s open specifically, positioning ahead of Tuesday’s corporate plan webcast is likely to be the dominant company‑level consideration.

8. How Exxon Mobil looks right now: bull vs. bear checklist

Bullish factors heading into Monday

Strong cash generation: Q3 operating cash flow of $14.8 billion and YTD free cash flow over $20 billion underpin dividends and buybacks. ^[34]
Attractive, seemingly secure dividend: A 3.4–3.5% yield with a 43‑year growth streak, supported by moderate payout ratios and a conservative balance sheet. ^[35]
Growth projects on track: Record output in Guyana and the Permian, plus new projects like Yellowtail and Hammerhead, provide visible volume growth. ^[36]
Reasonable valuation for a mega‑cap: Around 17x earnings and 1.5x sales with high single‑digit consensus upside is not demanding versus many other large‑cap sectors. ^[37]
Institutional support: MarketBeat highlights continued interest from large investors such as Gabelli Funds, and institutions own over 60% of the float. ^[38]

Bearish / risk factors to keep in mind

Cyclical earnings down from peak: Net income has already fallen from 2022’s boom levels, and Q3 2025 earnings are roughly 12% lower year‑on‑year. ^[39]
Oil price risk: The dividend and buyback story depends heavily on crude prices; official forecasts point to lower average Brent prices in 2026. ^[40]
Chemical segment weakness: The Singapore cracker shutdown highlights that parts of Exxon’s business are in a cyclical trough, which could weigh on earnings and lead to restructuring charges. ^[41]
Geopolitical and ESG overhangs: Potential expansion in Iraq and ongoing scrutiny of fossil‑fuel producers add long‑term headline and regulatory risk. ^[42]
Not a deep bargain: With the stock near the high end of its 52‑week range, most of the “easy” post‑pandemic recovery trade is behind it. ^[43]

9. What to watch at Monday’s open

For short‑term traders, the key moving pieces just before and after the bell will likely be:

Overnight moves in Brent and WTI futures.
Any pre‑market commentary about Exxon’s dividend from weekend financial media. ^[44]
Sector positioning in big oil names (Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Petrobras) that were also flagged by MarketBeat as oil stocks to watch. ^[45]

For long‑term investors, Monday’s price action is just one data point. The more important questions are:

Do you believe the EIA’s view of lower oil prices in 2026, or do you think crude will stay closer to current levels or higher? ^[46]
How much confidence do you have that Exxon’s Guyana and Permian projects will continue to deliver high‑return growth? ^[47]
Is a 3.5% dividend with high single‑digit price‑target upside attractive enough for your risk profile compared to other dividend or energy opportunities?