Date: December 6, 2025
Ticker: Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM)
Where Exxon Mobil Stock Stands Today
Exxon Mobil shares closed at about $116.54 on December 5, 2025, slipping roughly 0.5% on the day. Over the past 30 days the stock is up around 3–4%, and about 1–3% over the past 12 months, modestly lagging both the broader energy sector and the S&P 500. [1]
The current quote leaves XOM trading:
- Roughly 3–4% below its 52‑week high near $120.8, set in November 2025
- About 19% above its 52‑week low around $97.8 from April 2025 [2]
Recent data from independent screens puts Exxon’s market capitalisation around $490–495 billion, with a trailing P/E ratio near 17x and an EV/EBITDA multiple around 7.6x, a premium to the U.S. integrated oil & gas industry average near 4.9x. [3]
Simply Wall St estimates that over the past five years Exxon has delivered a total shareholder return of roughly 225–250%, and about 7–8% over the past three months, reflecting steady compounding from dividends and buybacks alongside share price appreciation. [4]
In short, XOM enters December 2025 priced as a high‑quality, large‑cap energy bellwether with modest upside baked into consensus expectations rather than as a deep value play.
Q3 2025 Earnings: Record Volumes and Strong Cash Returns
Exxon’s third‑quarter 2025 results, released on October 31, underline why many analysts still view the stock constructively despite heavy capital spending and energy‑transition uncertainty. [5]
Key highlights from Q3 2025:
- Earnings (GAAP) of about $7.5 billion, up versus Q2, with diluted EPS of $1.76
- Cash flow from operations of $14.8 billion and free cash flow of about $6.3 billion
- Shareholder distributions of $9.4 billion in the quarter, including roughly $4.2 billion in dividends and $5.1 billion in share repurchases
- Year‑to‑date 2025 earnings of around $22.3 billion, below 2024 levels, mainly due to lower crude prices, weak chemical margins and higher depreciation, partly offset by volume growth and cost savings [6]
Operationally, the quarter was dominated by record upstream performance:
- Net production reached about 4.8 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d)
- Guyana set a new quarterly record with gross output above 700,000 boe/d
- Permian Basin production reached nearly 1.7 million boe/d, also a record [7]
Exxon also noted that it has now achieved more than $14 billion in cumulative structural cost savings since 2019, with an additional $2.2 billion realised in 2025 and a goal of exceeding $18 billion by 2030. [8]
From a segment lens:
- Energy Products (refining & fuels) benefited from strong refining throughput and improved margins, delivering higher year‑over‑year earnings despite “bottom of cycle” industry conditions. [9]
- Chemical Products remained under pressure, with weak global petrochemical margins and China complex‑related expenses dragging earnings compared with 2024. [10]
Overall, Q3 reinforced the core investment case: advantaged barrels in Guyana and the Permian, cost discipline, and substantial cash returns even in a mid‑cycle oil price environment.
A 43‑Year Dividend Streak – and a Fresh Hike
Exxon’s income story remains central to the stock’s appeal.
In its Q3 release, the company increased the fourth‑quarter 2025 dividend to $1.03 per share, a 4% raise, payable on December 10, 2025. Management highlighted that this marks 43 consecutive years of annual dividend‑per‑share growth. [11]
Zacks and Nasdaq data show:
- Average dividend‑per‑share growth of about 5.8% annually over the past 43 years
- The quarterly dividend stepping up from $0.95 in late 2023 to $0.99 in 2024 and $1.03 in 2025
- In the first nine months of 2025, Exxon returned roughly $12.9 billion via dividends and $14.9 billion via buybacks, for a combined $27.8 billion to shareholders year‑to‑date [12]
At the current share price, the forward dividend yield sits around 3.5%, based on the $4.12 annualised payout. [13]
For dividend‑focused investors, the combination of a long‑tenured payout record, sizeable yield and ongoing buybacks continues to position XOM as one of the flagship income names in global energy—though the yield is no longer “high” by historical standards given the strong share price recovery since 2020.
Permian Scale‑Up: Pioneer Integration and New Acreage
The Permian Basin remains the centre of Exxon’s long‑term growth story.
- In May 2024, Exxon completed its $60 billion all‑stock acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources, more than doubling its Permian footprint. [14]
- The combined company now controls over 1.4 million net acres across the Delaware and Midland basins, with an estimated 16 billion barrels of oil equivalent in resource. [15]
- Exxon’s own guidance suggests Permian production could approach 2 million boe/d by 2027, up from roughly 1.3 million boe/d on a 2023 basis. [16]
In Q3 2025, Exxon also disclosed the acquisition of more than 80,000 additional net acres from Sinochem in the Permian, further expanding its inventory of high‑return drilling locations. [17]
Layered on top are proprietary technologies such as lightweight proppants, which Exxon claims can boost recoveries per well by up to 20%, and a new supercomputer (Discovery 6) intended to sharpen subsurface modelling and development planning. [18]
For XOM shareholders, the Permian now represents a long duration volume‑and‑cash‑flow engine that can support both dividends and buybacks, provided oil prices remain within a broadly supportive band.
Guyana: Yellowtail Online and More Projects Coming
Guyana continues to evolve from an exploration success story into a production workhorse.
In Q3 2025:
- Exxon brought the Yellowtail development online four months ahead of schedule and under budget, adding installed capacity of around 250,000 boe/d.
- Total installed capacity in the Stabroek block has now surpassed 900,000 boe/d, with gross production already exceeding 700,000 boe/d. [19]
Management also took final investment decision on Hammerhead, the seventh project in Stabroek, expected to add another 150,000 boe/d by 2029. [20]
This sequence of projects, combined with low lifting costs and attractive fiscal terms, makes Guyana one of the most important contributors to Exxon’s long‑term upstream margin profile—and a key reason many analysts continue to grant the stock a valuation premium relative to traditional integrated majors.
Chemicals and Refining: Singapore Restructuring Signals Cycle Pain
While upstream is thriving, the petrochemical side of the portfolio is being reshaped in response to tough market conditions.
On December 4, Reuters reported that Exxon plans to permanently shut down the older of its two steam crackers on Jurong Island in Singapore, beginning a wind‑down in March 2026 with full shutdown expected by June. [21]
Key points from the report and related commentary:
- The cracker, which started up in 2002, is being closed as global petrochemical producers grapple with oversupply and losses, particularly driven by new capacity in China.
- Exxon’s naphtha imports into Singapore have already dropped sharply, from roughly 2.5 million tonnes in 2024 to about 1.5 million tonnes in the first eleven months of 2025. [22]
- The company has previously signalled plans to cut 10–15% of its Singapore workforce by 2027 and has agreed to sell its local petroleum retail business to Indonesia’s Chandra Asri. [23]
- At the same time, Exxon started a new refining unit at its 592,000 bpd Singapore refinery in September, underscoring a pivot towards more refined products and away from older, less competitive chemical capacity. [24]
These moves align with commentary in the Q3 2025 earnings release, where Exxon flagged that Chemical Products earnings year‑to‑date were down sharply versus 2024 due to weaker margins and China complex costs, partially offset by higher sales of high‑value products. [25]
For investors, the Singapore reconfiguration is a reminder that even a super‑major sometimes has to shrink parts of its footprint when the economics of new competitors and regional demand shift.
Iraq’s West Qurna 2: Potential Return to a Giant Oilfield
In early December, Reuters reported that Exxon has approached Iraq’s oil ministry about acquiring Lukoil’s majority stake in the giant West Qurna 2 oilfield. [26]
Details from the report:
- Lukoil currently holds a 75% operational stake in West Qurna 2, one of the world’s largest oilfields, producing around 470,000 barrels per day—about 0.5% of global supply and roughly 9% of Iraq’s total output. [27]
- U.S. sanctions on Lukoil are prompting the Russian company to dispose of overseas assets; the U.S. Treasury has allowed potential buyers to negotiate with Lukoil until mid‑December, subject to deal‑specific approvals. [28]
- Iraqi officials quoted by Reuters indicated that Exxon is their preferred option to take over, citing the company’s experience with complex, large‑scale fields. [29]
Exxon previously operated the neighbouring West Qurna 1 project before exiting last year, and in October signed a non‑binding agreement to help develop Iraq’s Majnoon oilfield, signalling renewed appetite for Iraqi upstream exposure. [30]
A successful West Qurna 2 deal would add another large, long‑life asset to Exxon’s portfolio, but would also increase geopolitical and contract‑regime risk, as Iraq continues to balance domestic politics, OPEC+ quotas and foreign investment needs.
Hydrogen and the Energy Transition: Baytown Project Put on Ice
Perhaps the most significant “transition” headline for Exxon shareholders in late 2025 is not a green milestone but a pause button.
In late November, Exxon’s CEO Darren Woods told Reuters that the company has frozen plans to build what would have been one of the world’s largest low‑carbon hydrogen plants at its Baytown, Texas complex, citing weak customer demand and difficulty securing long‑term offtake contracts. [31]
Key elements across multiple reports:
- The Baytown “blue hydrogen” project, first announced in 2022, was designed to produce around 1 billion cubic feet of hydrogen per day, using natural gas with carbon capture and storage. [32]
- Exxon and its partners, including Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, have already invested roughly $500 million in development work; full project costs were expected to run into the several‑billion‑dollar range. [33]
- Woods has emphasised that the company still believes in the long‑term need for hydrogen, but that customers today are largely unwilling to pay the premium for low‑carbon hydrogen versus conventional (“grey”) supply, particularly amid industrial slowdowns in Europe. [34]
- Earlier in 2025, U.S. federal clean‑energy funding cuts removed more than $330 million in previously allocated support for Exxon’s Baytown hydrogen complex, compounding economic pressures on the project. [35]
Interestingly, Exxon had begun to assemble a customer base: in May, it announced a long‑term agreement to supply 250,000 tonnes per year of low‑carbon ammonia to Japan’s Marubeni, contingent on a positive final investment decision at Baytown. [36] That offtake now sits in limbo.
The pause does not spell the end of Exxon’s low‑carbon ambitions—its carbon capture, storage and lower‑emissions fuels initiatives remain active—but it does underscore that energy‑transition projects must compete for capital against high‑return oil and gas developments, especially when policy support and customer willingness to pay are uncertain.
Analyst Ratings, Price Targets and the Valuation Debate
Analyst sentiment on XOM as of early December 2025 is constructively cautious rather than euphoric.
Across several major aggregators:
- MarketBeat reports a “Moderate Buy” consensus based on 20 analysts, with an average 12‑month price target of $128.67, implying about 10% upside from current levels. Target range: $105–$156. [37]
- TipRanks tracks 15 analysts with a Moderate Buy consensus and an average target of $131.08, roughly 13% above recent prices, with a range of $115–$156. [38]
- StockAnalysis shows 16 analysts rating XOM a “Buy”, with an average target of $129.5, or about 11% expected upside. [39]
- On Public.com, 14 analysts collectively rate the stock a “Buy”, with a central price estimate of about $128.6. [40]
Simply Wall St’s narrative‑driven valuation work suggests a fair value around $132 per share, implying the stock might be approximately 10–11% undervalued versus recent closes, though they also note that XOM trades at a premium P/E multiple to the broader oil & gas industry. [41]
From a fundamental perspective:
- Zacks/Nasdaq highlight that XOM’s EV/EBITDA multiple near 7.6x stands well above the industry average around 4.9x, and the stock has trailed its peer group modestly over the past year. [42]
- MarketBeat’s institutional holdings snapshot shows about 61.8% of shares held by institutions, with Cresset Asset Management recently increasing its XOM stake by 5.4% in Q2 2025 and a market‑cap figure near $490 billion. [43]
Put together, the market seems to be saying:
- Exxon deserves a premium for its scale, balance sheet, Guyana/Permian assets and dividend discipline
- But that premium is not limitless, especially in a world where long‑term oil demand is debated and capital‑intensive transition projects can stumble, as Baytown just did
Key Catalysts to Watch for XOM in 2026
Looking ahead from December 2025, several developments could move Exxon Mobil’s share price over the next 12–18 months:
- Oil and Gas Prices
XOM’s cash flows remain tightly linked to the price of crude and refined products. A structurally higher or lower oil band would quickly feed into earnings, buybacks and sentiment. - Guyana Ramps and New Sanctions or Tax Regimes
The pace of ramp‑up at Yellowtail and future Guyana projects (like Hammerhead), plus any changes in Guyana’s fiscal terms or geopolitical posture, will be closely watched. [44] - Permian Execution and Synergies from Pioneer
Whether Exxon can hit its 2027 production targets while delivering the promised double‑digit returns and lower emissions per barrel will influence both valuation multiples and ESG narratives. [45] - West Qurna 2 Outcome
Any binding agreement to take over Lukoil’s stake—and the terms attached—could meaningfully affect Exxon’s long‑term production profile and political risk exposure. [46] - Chemical Cycle and Singapore Footprint
Improvement (or further deterioration) in global petrochemical margins, along with the impact of the Singapore cracker shutdown, will shape returns from the Chemical Products segment. [47] - Hydrogen and Policy Direction
A revival of supportive hydrogen policies or stronger customer demand could resurrect Baytown or similar projects; continued policy headwinds might push more capital back toward traditional oil, gas and LNG. [48] - Capital Allocation and Buybacks
Exxon has been running a large, steady buyback programme (targeting $20 billion in repurchases for 2025), alongside its dividend growth. Changes to that capital‑return mix would signal management’s confidence in reinvestment opportunities versus returning cash. [49]
Risk Factors: What Could Go Wrong?
Despite its strengths, Exxon Mobil stock carries notable risks:
- Commodity Price Volatility – Sustained low oil or gas prices could compress cash flows, pressure the dividend, and make the current valuation premium hard to justify.
- Energy Transition & Policy Risk – The Baytown hydrogen pause illustrates how quickly transition economics can shift when subsidies or tax credits are removed or restructured. Future policy changes—both supportive and adverse—will influence the company’s low‑carbon strategy and capital allocation. [50]
- Project and Execution Risk – Large, complex projects in Guyana, Iraq, or the Permian carry operational and cost‑overrun risk.
- Geopolitical and Legal Risk – Exposure to jurisdictions like Iraq, and ongoing global climate litigation against oil majors, could introduce headline and financial risk over time.
- Refining and Petrochemical Cycles – Weak refining or chemical margins, as seen in the recent chemical downturn and Singapore restructuring, can weigh on segment returns and investor sentiment. [51]
Bottom Line: A Mature Energy Giant Balancing Cash Today and Uncertain Tomorrow
As of December 6, 2025, Exxon Mobil remains one of the market’s premier dividend and cash‑flow names, anchored by record volumes in Guyana and the Permian, a 43‑year streak of dividend growth, and an aggressive buyback programme. [52]
At the same time, the pause of the Baytown hydrogen project, capacity cuts in Singapore and cautious commentary around long‑term demand show how challenging it is for even the largest integrated players to navigate the energy transition while maintaining high returns. [53]
Analysts broadly see high single‑ to low double‑digit percentage upside in XOM over the next year, but that view rests on the assumption that oil prices stay supportive, Guyana and Permian ramps proceed smoothly, and Exxon’s disciplined approach to capital allocation continues. [54]
For investors evaluating Exxon Mobil stock, the key question is less whether the company can generate strong cash flows—it clearly can—and more how those cash flows will be balanced between legacy hydrocarbons, shareholder distributions and selective, economically viable low‑carbon bets over the coming decade.
References
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