Exxon Mobil (XOM) Stock on December 2, 2025: West Qurna Deal Talks, Hydrogen Pivot and 2026 Price Targets

As of midday trading on December 2, 2025, Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM) is trading around $115 per share, down roughly 1% on the day and sitting a few percent below its 52‑week high of about $120.81. Over the past year, the stock has been roughly flat to slightly negative in price terms, even as it has delivered a high‑single‑digit total return year‑to‑date, thanks largely to its dividend. ^[1]

Yet under the surface, the story is anything but quiet. On December 2, Reuters reported that Exxon has approached Iraq about buying Russian company Lukoil’s majority stake in the giant West Qurna 2 oilfield. At the same time, the company has effectively shelved a flagship low‑carbon hydrogen project in Texas and continues to lean on record production from Guyana and the Permian Basin to drive long‑term cash flow. ^[2]

For investors trying to decide whether Exxon Mobil stock is a buy, hold or sell heading into 2026, here’s a detailed, news‑driven breakdown of the latest developments, forecasts and risks.

1. XOM Stock Snapshot on December 2, 2025

Price levels and trading context

• Share price: Around $115–116 intraday on December 2, 2025. ^[3]
• 52‑week range: Approximately $97.80 (low) to $120.81 (high), with the high set in mid‑November. ^[4]
• Market capitalization: Roughly $490+ billion, putting Exxon firmly in mega‑cap territory. ^[5]
• Performance: High‑single‑digit positive total return year‑to‑date, but around flat to slightly negative on a trailing‑12‑month basis, as energy has lagged the broader S&P 500. ^[6]

Dividend profile

• Quarterly dividend:$1.03 per share, implying an annualized payout of $4.12. ^[7]
• Dividend yield: At about $115 per share, the forward yield sits around 3.5%, solid for a mega‑cap with Exxon’s balance sheet strength. TS2 Tech+1
• Dividend streak: Exxon has now increased its annual dividend per share for 43 consecutive years, a key draw for income investors. ^[8]

In short, XOM today is a yield‑oriented, mega‑cap energy stock trading near the upper end of its 52‑week range, priced as a quality franchise rather than a distressed cyclical.

2. Big Breaking Story: Exxon Eyes Iraq’s West Qurna 2 Oilfield

The most market‑sensitive headline on December 2 is Exxon’s interest in Iraq’s West Qurna 2:

• Reuters reports that Exxon has approached Iraq’s oil ministry about buying Lukoil’s 75% operational stake in West Qurna 2, one of the largest oilfields in the world. ^[9]
• The field currently produces around 470,000 barrels per day, or about 0.5% of global supply and roughly 9% of Iraq’s total oil output, making it a strategic asset. ^[10]
• The U.S. Treasury has given potential buyers until December 13, 2025 to engage with Lukoil under sanctions rules, with any transaction requiring formal approval. ^[11]
• Iraq is described by officials as favoring Exxon as a buyer, citing the company’s capacity to manage such a large and complex field. ^[12]

A GuruFocus analysis published the same day frames the move as a strategic expansion in the Middle East, noting that Exxon’s valuation multiples (P/E ~16.9, P/S ~1.56, P/B ~1.89) are already near their multi‑year highs, suggesting the market is pricing in a good deal of optimism. ^[13]

Investor takeaway: If completed on favorable terms, a West Qurna 2 deal would add another large, long‑life, low‑cost oil asset to Exxon’s portfolio, reinforcing its upstream scale. It would also slightly increase geopolitical and regulatory risk exposure, which investors will weigh against the potential cash‑flow uplift.

3. Hydrogen on Ice: The Baytown Low‑Carbon Project Pause

On the low‑carbon front, Exxon has just delivered a very different message.

• On November 21, Exxon CEO Darren Woods told Reuters the company has paused plans for a massive “blue” hydrogen facility at its Baytown, Texas complex due to weak customer demand and challenges securing long‑term offtake contracts at viable prices. ^[14]
• The project was designed to produce around 1 billion cubic feet per day of hydrogen, one of the largest such plants globally, and had already faced delays before this decision. ^[15]
• A follow‑up report from Canary Media on December 1 notes that the project had previously secured a U.S. Department of Energy grant of nearly $332 million, which was later rescinded amid policy changes, further undermining the economics of low‑carbon hydrogen. ^[16]

This pause is part of a broader pattern: while Exxon is publicly committed to lower‑carbon technologies, the company appears reluctant to deploy large amounts of capital into projects that lack clear demand or policy support.

Investor takeaway: The Baytown decision reinforces Exxon’s focus on high‑return, lower‑risk projects in oil, gas, LNG and petrochemicals, and signals that its low‑carbon strategy will be tactically cautious rather than aggressive. For ESG‑focused investors, this may be a negative; for value investors, it arguably reflects capital discipline.

4. Fundamental Backdrop: Q3 2025 Earnings and Cash Flows

Exxon’s third‑quarter 2025 results, released on October 31, set the foundation for most of today’s analyst commentary:

• Earnings: $7.5 billion, or $1.76 per diluted share. ^[17]
• Operating cash flow: $14.8 billion; free cash flow: $6.3 billion. ^[18]
• Shareholder distributions: $9.4 billion in the quarter (about $4.2 billion in dividends and $5.1 billion in buybacks). ^[19]
• Year‑to‑date (first nine months of 2025):
  • Earnings: $22.3 billion (down from $26.1 billion a year earlier, mainly due to softer oil prices and weaker chemical margins).
  • Free cash flow: about $20.6 billion.
  • Distributions to shareholders: $27.8 billion, including aggressive share repurchases. ^[20]

Management also emphasized:

• Structural cost savings: Over $14 billion in cumulative savings since 2019, with a path to more than $18 billion by 2030. ^[21]
• Balance sheet strength: Debt‑to‑capital of about 13.5% and net‑debt‑to‑capital under 10%, with roughly $14 billion in cash on hand—very conservative leverage for a company of this size. ^[22]

Overall, Q3 confirmed that Exxon can generate robust cash flows even at mid‑cycle oil prices (Brent sits in the low $60s per barrel as of early December) thanks to its low‑cost upstream assets. ^[23]

5. Growth Engines: Guyana and the Permian Basin

A central pillar of the bull case for XOM is its “advantaged barrels” in Guyana and the Permian.

Guyana: A once‑in‑a‑generation offshore play

Recent corporate updates and independent analyses highlight that: ^[24]

• Production from the offshore Stabroek block in Guyana has reached roughly 900,000 barrels per day, supported by four FPSOs (Liza Phase 1, Liza Phase 2, Payara and Yellowtail).
• The Yellowtail development, Exxon’s largest Guyana project to date, came online four months ahead of schedule and adds about 250,000 barrels per day of gross capacity. ^[25]
• Exxon and partners have now sanctioned seven developments, including Hammerhead, which is expected to contribute about 150,000 barrels per day by 2029.
• By 2030, total installed capacity across eight planned projects could reach around 1.7 million barrels per day, making Guyana one of the most productive offshore oil provinces globally. TS2 Tech+1

Permian Basin: Scale plus infrastructure

In the U.S. Permian Basin, Exxon’s Q3 release showed:

• A new record of nearly 1.7 million oil‑equivalent barrels per day of production. ^[26]
• Acquisition of more than 80,000 additional net acres from Sinochem in Q3, expanding its inventory of high‑return drilling locations. ^[27]
• A deal (reported by Reuters) to acquire a 40% stake in the Bahia NGL pipeline, which will move up to 600,000 barrels per day of natural gas liquids from the Permian to the Gulf Coast, later expandable to 1 million barrels per day. TS2 Tech

Together, Guyana and the Permian are widely viewed as low‑cost, long‑duration growth engines that can keep Exxon’s upstream earnings resilient even if oil prices remain subdued.

6. Analyst Ratings, Price Targets and Fundamental Forecasts

Street consensus: “Moderate Buy” to “Buy”

Across major data providers, the broad picture looks like this:

• StockAnalysis, tracking 16 covering analysts, reports an average 12‑month price target of $129.50, implying about 12.5% upside from current levels, with a “Buy” consensus. Target range: $105–$156. ^[28]
• ValueInvesting.io, using a larger universe of 33 analysts, shows a slightly higher average target of $131.76 (about 13.7% upside) but labels the consensus as “Hold”, reflecting a mix of 13 holds versus 19 buys and strong buys. ^[29]
• MarketBeat’s aggregation (cited in recent institutional‑flow articles) also lands around an average target in the high $120s with a “Moderate Buy” consensus. ^[30]

A December 1 deep‑dive from TS2.Tech highlights a fresh UBS initiation with a $145 target and other bullish calls in the mid‑$140s to $156, framing potential upside of 25–35% in the most optimistic cases. TS2 Tech+1

Earnings and revenue forecasts

Wall Street models compiled by StockAnalysis and ValueInvesting suggest a mid‑cycle, steady‑state outlook rather than explosive growth: ^[31]

• Revenue 2025: Around $333 billion, slightly below 2024 as oil prices normalize.
• Revenue 2026: Roughly flat at $331 billion, reflecting volume growth offset by cautious price assumptions.
• EPS 2025: About $6.9–7.0, down ~12% vs. 2024.
• EPS 2026: Around $7.5, implying 8% EPS growth as new projects ramp and cost savings accumulate.

In other words, analysts are not modeling a boom, but they do expect mid‑single‑digit revenue growth and high‑single‑digit EPS growth over the next couple of years, underpinned by Guyana and the Permian.

7. Alternative Forecast Models: From Bearish 30‑Day View to Long‑Term Bullish

Beyond traditional sell‑side research, independent models paint a more mixed picture.

• StockScan, a technical and quant‑driven site, projects a negative 30‑day outlook, with an average target around $83 in its short‑term model (roughly 28% below today’s price), and a 12‑month base case of $95.61 (about 17% downside). Its long‑term scenario, however, has XOM climbing toward $156 by 2030 and even higher by 2040–2050. ^[32]
• A separate set of discounted‑cash‑flow (DCF) and multiples‑based valuations highlighted in a November 29 TS2.Tech article cites Simply Wall St’s intrinsic value estimate of roughly $285 per share, implying that XOM could be trading at a 60% discount to fair value if those assumptions prove accurate. TS2 Tech

These algorithmic and DCF‑based estimates should be treated with caution—they rely heavily on long‑term commodity price and volume assumptions—but they underscore how sensitive valuations are to views on future oil and gas demand.

8. Valuation and Financial Health: Quality at a Premium?

The biggest debate around Exxon Mobil stock today is less about solvency or profitability and more about valuation.

A December 2 GuruFocus analysis of Exxon’s metrics notes that: ^[33]

• P/E ratio: About 16.9×, near the upper end of its 3‑year range and a premium to many integrated oil peers.
• Price‑to‑sales: Around 1.56×, close to 5‑year highs.
• Price‑to‑book: Roughly 1.9×.
• Debt‑to‑equity: Only about 0.16, with a current ratio of 1.14 and strong interest coverage—indicating very low financial risk.

In practical terms:

• Bulls argue that Exxon’s balance sheet, project pipeline and cost structure justify a premium multiple, particularly versus more leveraged or less diversified oil companies. TS2 Tech+1
• Skeptics counter that XOM is already trading near historical valuation highs for an oil major at a time when Brent crude is in the low $60s, not in a super‑cycle, leaving limited margin of safety if energy demand or prices disappoint. ^[34]

Overall, the stock looks more like “quality at a reasonable (but not cheap) price” than a deep value play.

9. Capital Returns, Institutions and Sentiment

Dividends and buybacks

Exxon continues to behave like a shareholder‑return machine:

• 4% dividend hike for Q4 2025, to $1.03 per share.
• Ongoing buyback program targeting $20 billion of repurchases for 2025. ^[35]

At current levels, investors are effectively being offered:

• A 3.5% dividend yield, plus
• Mid‑single‑digit earnings growth, plus
• Additional per‑share growth from buybacks.

Institutional flows

December 2 MarketBeat pieces show some hedge funds trimming positions, even as Exxon’s fundamental case remains intact:

• Edgestream Partners L.P. sold about 61,843 shares in Q2, cutting its stake by nearly 48%. ^[36]
• Portfolio Design Labs LLC reduced its holdings by roughly 33.7%, ending Q2 with 46,588 shares. ^[37]

At the same time, earlier filings highlighted by TS2.Tech show Norges Bank (Norway’s sovereign wealth fund) establishing a large new position, and aggregate data still puts institutional ownership above 60% of the float. TS2 Tech+1

Short interest remains low—around 1% of free float—even after a recent uptick, suggesting there is no large, structural bearish bet against XOM at the moment. TS2 Tech

10. Key Risks for Exxon Mobil Stock

Even with strong projects and a solid balance sheet, XOM is far from risk‑free. Major issues investors are tracking include:

1. Oil and gas price risk
   • If global growth slows or OPEC+ decisions lead to prolonged oversupply, oil prices could remain in a “lower‑for‑longer” band, compressing cash flows and project returns. ^[38]
2. Political and regulatory risk in key geographies
   • Guyana’s rapid oil boom has sparked local debates about revenue sharing and environmental impact; tax or regulatory changes could affect project economics. ^[39]
   • Iraq’s West Qurna 2 field brings geopolitical risk, sanctions complexity and potential security concerns along with its large reserves. ^[40]
3. Energy‑transition and policy risk
   • The Baytown hydrogen pause underscores how quickly large low‑carbon projects can become uneconomic if policy or subsidy frameworks change. ^[41]
   • Carbon pricing, methane regulations or climate litigation could pressure long‑term valuations for all oil majors, including Exxon.
4. Execution risk on multi‑billion‑dollar mega‑projects
   • Projects like Guyana’s later FPSOs, Mozambique’s Rovuma LNG and the Bahia NGL build‑out require flawless execution over many years; cost overruns or delays could erode expected returns. ^[42]
5. Macro and market‑wide risk
   • A general equity market sell‑off, higher interest rates or a sector rotation out of energy could weigh on XOM’s valuation even if company‑specific fundamentals stay solid.

11. What to Watch Next for XOM Investors

Looking beyond today’s headlines, key catalysts into 2026 include:

• Q4 2025 earnings (early 2026): Whether Exxon can at least meet Street EPS expectations (~$1.64–1.74 per share) and sustain strong operating cash flow in a mid‑$60s oil environment. TS2 Tech+1
• Any formal move on West Qurna 2: Confirmation of a deal, pricing details and financing structure would help investors judge whether the acquisition is value‑accretive. ^[43]
• Further Guyana and Permian updates: Additional project approvals, incremental capacity milestones and any new guidance on long‑term production targets. ^[44]
• Capital‑allocation guidance: Adjustments to the $27–29 billion annual capex framework and ongoing buyback plans will feed directly into DCF models and price targets. ^[45]
• Analyst revisions: With UBS and others already in the mid‑$140s, any broad move in consensus targets or ratings—up or down—could be a near‑term sentiment driver. ^[46]

12. Bottom Line: Is Exxon Mobil Stock a Buy, Hold or Sell Today?

Putting together the latest data as of December 2, 2025:

• Positives
  • Record‑level, low‑cost production growth from Guyana and the Permian. ^[47]
  • A fortress balance sheet and strong free cash flow generation even at modest oil prices. ^[48]
  • A 3.5% and growing dividend plus ongoing buybacks, backed by 43 years of dividend increases. ^[49]
  • Analyst consensus pointing to low‑double‑digit upside over 12 months, with some more bullish houses seeing materially higher fair values. ^[50]
• Negatives and uncertainties
  • Valuation is already at or near multi‑year highs on several multiples. ^[51]
  • Short‑term technical models (like StockScan) flag possible near‑term downside, suggesting the stock is not a no‑brainer entry for short‑horizon traders. ^[52]
  • Energy‑transition policy shifts and project execution risks remain significant wildcards.

For long‑term, income‑oriented investors who can tolerate commodity cycles, Exxon Mobil still screens as a high‑quality, cash‑rich oil & gas major with a dependable dividend and modest growth prospects, now considering another large upstream expansion in Iraq.

For short‑term traders or investors who prefer deep discounts to intrinsic value, the current price near the top of its 52‑week range and the mixed signals from quantitative models may justify patience or more tactical positioning.

This article is for information and news purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Always do your own research and/or consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.

References

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