Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM) is trading just below its recent highs as investors digest fresh headlines on petrochemical capacity cuts in Asia, new upstream deals in Iraq, LNG expansion plans and updated balance‑sheet analysis. As of December 4, 2025, the stock sits around the mid‑$117s with a market value near $495 billion and a dividend yield of roughly 3.5%. [1]
All figures and news in this article are current through December 4, 2025 and are for informational purposes only, not investment advice.
XOM Stock Today: Price, Valuation and Recent Performance
At mid‑day on December 4, 2025, Exxon Mobil shares trade around $117–118, down modestly on the session. The day’s trading range has been roughly $117.4–$118.3, with volume a bit above 2 million shares early in the U.S. session. [2]
Key snapshot metrics:
- Share price: about $117.4
- Market capitalization: roughly $495 billion
- 52‑week range: $97.80 – $120.81
- Trailing P/E ratio: ~17.0
- Forward P/E ratio: ~16.2
- Dividend (forward): $4.12 per share (yield ~3.5%)
- Beta: 0.38 (lower volatility vs. the wider market) [3]
According to price‑history data, Exxon Mobil started 2025 around $107–108 per share and now trades in the high‑$110s, implying a year‑to‑date gain of roughly 9–10%. [4] Over the past 12 months, the stock is up about 7%, slightly lagging the broader integrated oil & gas industry’s near‑9% advance, according to Zacks research. [5]
From a valuation standpoint, Zacks/Nasdaq highlight that XOM trades around 7.65× trailing EV/EBITDA versus approximately 4.8× for its industry peers, reflecting a premium for the company’s scale, balance sheet strength and large‑scale growth projects. [6]
Fresh December 4 Headlines: Petrochemicals, Balance Sheet and Fund Flows
Singapore steam cracker shutdown underscores chemical sector pressure
The single biggest Exxon‑specific headline on December 4 is the company’s plan to permanently shut the older of its two steam crackers on Singapore’s Jurong Island starting in March 2026, with full closure expected by June. [7]
Key points from the Reuters report and follow‑up industry coverage:
- The cracker, commissioned in 2002, is being wound down amid heavy global petrochemical overcapacity, driven largely by rapid build‑outs in China.
- Exxon has already reduced long‑term contract volumes in Singapore over the last two years and is expected to cut naphtha import needs as the cracker goes offline. [8]
- The company recently started up a new 1.6 million ton‑per‑year cracker in Huizhou, China and a new refining unit at its 592,000 bpd Singapore refinery, partially offsetting the impact of the shutdown. [9]
For investors, this move is a reminder that Exxon’s chemical segment, while strategically important, is facing “bottom‑of‑cycle” margins and rationalising capacity rather than aggressively expanding it in oversupplied markets.
Balance‑sheet analysis: low leverage but a valuation premium
A same‑day article syndicated on Nasdaq (“Inside ExxonMobil’s Balance Sheet: Key Takeaways for Investors”) emphasises that: [10]
- Exxon’s debt‑to‑capitalization sits around 13.6%, materially lower than many peers.
- The company’s strong balance sheet allows it to fund large projects, withstand commodity downturns and still return capital to shareholders.
- However, the stock’s EV/EBITDA multiple (about 7.65×) is notably above the broader industry average (~4.8×), suggesting investors are already paying up for that stability and project pipeline.
Zacks assigns Exxon a Rank #3 (Hold), while acknowledging upward revisions to 2025 earnings estimates over the last month. [11]
Institutional positioning and insider activity
Recent SEC filings summarised by outlets such as MarketBeat show a mixed but active institutional stance:
- First Trust Advisors LP increased its position in XOM during the second quarter. [12]
- 1832 Asset Management LP initiated a sizeable stake of over 75,000 shares. [13]
- JBR Co. Financial Management and Baird Financial Group trimmed positions, likely as part of broader portfolio rebalancing. [14]
- A recent Form 4 filing showed thousands of shares withheld from a senior executive’s RSU vesting to cover taxes—routine but worth noting as part of insider flows. [15]
There is no clear institutional “stampede” in either direction, but the churn underscores how polarising the stock can be at current levels.
Q3 2025 Results: Big Cash Flow, Bigger Projects
Exxon’s third‑quarter 2025 results, released on October 31, remain the fundamental anchor for today’s valuation debate. [16]
Headline numbers:
- GAAP earnings: $7.5 billion, or $1.76 per diluted share.
- Earnings excluding special items: $8.1 billion, or $1.88 per share. [17]
- Cash flow from operations: $14.8 billion; free cash flow: $6.3 billion. [18]
- Shareholder distributions: $9.4 billion in the quarter, split between roughly $4.2 billion in dividends and $5.1 billion in share repurchases. [19]
Operational highlights from the Q3 release:
- Record production in Guyana and the Permian Basin. Gross output in Guyana exceeded 700,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d), while Permian production neared 1.7 million boe/d. [20]
- The Yellowtail development offshore Guyana was brought online four months ahead of schedule and under budget, lifting installed capacity in the Stabroek block to over 900,000 boe/d. [21]
- Exxon reached final investment decision on Hammerhead, its seventh Guyana project, expected to add another 150,000 boe/d by 2029. [22]
- The company acquired more than 80,000 net acres in the Permian from Sinochem, further extending its low‑cost shale inventory. [23]
- Refining throughput hit record levels year‑to‑date, helping offset weaker refining margins globally. [24]
Year‑to‑date 2025 earnings of $22.3 billion are down versus the same period in 2024, largely due to lower oil prices, weaker chemical margins and higher depreciation. But this has been partially cushioned by higher volumes from Guyana and the Permian plus ongoing structural cost cuts, which have now exceeded $14 billion since 2019. [25]
Dividend and Shareholder Returns: 43 Years of Increases
Exxon declared a fourth‑quarter 2025 dividend of $1.03 per share, a 4% increase that extends its streak of 43 consecutive years of annual dividend‑per‑share growth. The dividend is payable December 10 to shareholders of record as of November 14. [26]
At today’s price, the forward yield is about 3.5%, squarely in “high‑quality income” territory rather than ultra‑high yield. [27]
The Q3 release also confirmed:
- $27.8 billion returned to shareholders year‑to‑date 2025: about $12.9 billion in dividends and $14.9 billion in share repurchases.
- A capital‑return plan that targets $20 billion of buybacks in 2025, subject to market conditions. [28]
For long‑term income investors, the appeal is clear: a growing dividend backed by a strong balance sheet and diversified cash flows. But with payout growth running in the low‑single‑digit percentages, the story is more about durability than rapid income expansion.
Growth Engine: Guyana, Permian, LNG and Midstream
Guyana: a world‑class oil province
Guyana remains central to Exxon’s long‑term growth case:
- The Stabroek block now boasts installed capacity above 900,000 boe/d, with Yellowtail online and multiple FPSOs in operation. [29]
- Low breakeven costs, often cited in industry coverage as among the most competitive new‑oil projects globally, give Exxon a cushion if crude prices soften. [30]
- The Hammerhead project is expected to lift Guyana output further toward the end of the decade. [31]
At the same time, Guyana is also a flashpoint for environmental and regulatory scrutiny, with debates over cost recovery and revenue sharing occasionally surfacing in local and international media. [32]
Permian Basin: shale plus infrastructure
In the Permian, Exxon is not just drilling more wells; it is also building out the infrastructure to move and monetise growing natural gas liquids (NGL) volumes:
- The company recently agreed to acquire a 40% stake in Enterprise Products Partners’ Bahia NGL pipeline, reimbursing about $650 million of project costs to date. The pipeline will move up to 1 million barrels per day of mixed NGLs from the Midland and Delaware basins to Mont Belvieu, with a 92‑mile extension connecting to Exxon’s Cowboy gas processing plant in New Mexico. [33]
- The extension is targeted for completion in late 2027, positioning Exxon to benefit as NGL output in the Permian is projected to grow more than 30% between 2024 and 2030. [34]
These moves deepen Exxon’s leverage to U.S. shale growth while adding fee‑like midstream earnings to its portfolio.
LNG: Golden Pass and Rovuma
Liquefied natural gas is another pillar of Exxon’s strategy:
- A Reuters analysis on December 4 warned that U.S. LNG exports could shrink if current margin pressure intensifies, but also noted that capacity is set to rise as projects like Golden Pass LNG in Texas, co‑owned by Exxon and QatarEnergy, ramp up in the coming years. [35]
- In Mozambique, Exxon has lifted force majeure on its large Rovuma LNG project and now targets a final investment decision in 2026, with first cargoes expected around 2030. [36]
LNG offers long‑duration cash flows but is capital intensive; the margin‑squeeze narrative underscores that not all upcoming capacity will enjoy super‑normal returns.
Strategic and ESG Headwinds: Chemicals, Hydrogen, Litigation and Policy
Petrochemicals under pressure
Beyond the Singapore cracker closure, Exxon has also announced plans—reported via industry press—to close its Fife ethylene plant in Scotland by early 2026, citing high input costs, weak market conditions and an unfriendly U.K. policy backdrop. [37]
Taken together with the Singapore move, this signals:
- A willingness to shut or sell higher‑cost chemical assets, even in developed markets.
- A pivot toward larger, more efficient complexes in places like China and the U.S. Gulf Coast. [38]
The flipside is that chemical earnings remain vulnerable to cyclical overcapacity and demand swings, as highlighted in Exxon’s own Q3 commentary. [39]
Hydrogen and low‑carbon strategy: pause, don’t abandon
On November 21, Reuters reported that Exxon has paused plans for a massive blue‑hydrogen plant at its Baytown complex in Texas, citing weak customer demand and the difficulty of securing long‑term offtake agreements at prices high enough to justify the project. [40]
The project, once touted as potentially one of the world’s largest hydrogen facilities, remains on the shelf until:
- Customers are willing to pay a premium for low‑carbon hydrogen, and
- Policy support and economics improve enough to de‑risk multi‑billion‑dollar investments. [41]
This pause underscores a broader reality: Exxon’s low‑carbon ambitions are constrained by commercial viability, even as it continues developing carbon capture and other decarbonisation projects.
Litigation, regulation and environmental risk
Exxon continues to face legal and regulatory challenges:
- The U.S. Supreme Court recently let stand a $14.25 million civil penalty against Exxon for air‑pollution violations at its Baytown, Texas complex, reinforcing that environmental compliance failures can carry financial and reputational costs. [42]
- In the U.S. Northeast, climate‑related litigation is advancing. A December 3 roundup from Canary Media notes that Connecticut’s climate deception lawsuit against Exxon is moving toward trial, after a judge rejected the company’s effort to dismiss the case. [43]
- The same regional coverage references ongoing clean‑up obligations at legacy refinery sites in New York state, adding to the long‑tail liabilities typical for century‑old oil majors. [44]
While these items are modest relative to Exxon’s earnings power, they illustrate headline and ESG risk that can influence institutional ownership and valuation multiples over time.
Wall Street’s View: Ratings and 12‑Month Price Targets
Analyst opinion on XOM is broadly constructive but not unanimously bullish.
Consensus picture
Across major data aggregators:
- StockAnalysis reports that 16 analysts currently rate XOM a “Buy” on average, with a 12‑month target price of $129.50, implying about 10% upside from current levels. [45]
- MarketWatch lists around 31 analysts, with an average target in the high‑$120s and an overall recommendation skewing toward “Overweight/Buy.” [46]
- ValueInvesting.io, which tracks 33 analyst forecasts, shows an average target near $131.8, with a range from roughly $106 to $164 and a consensus stance close to “Hold.” [47]
- MarketBeat cites a blended target around $128–129 and describes sentiment as a “Moderate Buy,” reflecting a mix of Buy and Hold ratings. [48]
High‑conviction calls: UBS, Piper Sandler and others
Recent high‑profile notes include:
- UBS assumed or reiterated coverage with a “Buy” rating and a $145 target price, highlighting Exxon’s advantaged upstream portfolio in Guyana and the Permian, strong cash generation and disciplined capital returns. [49]
- Piper Sandler has an “Overweight” rating and a $144 price target, arguing that the company’s diversified cash flows and long‑dated project queue justify a premium multiple even in a softer oil‑price environment. [50]
- Several independent and retail‑focused outlets characterise Exxon as a “Strong Buy”, pointing to a combination of mid‑teens total‑return potential (dividends plus price appreciation) and relatively low share‑price volatility. [51]
On the other hand, Zacks’ Rank #3 (Hold) and some Seeking Alpha contributors caution that the stock’s premium EV/EBITDA multiple and slower dividend growth could limit upside if oil prices remain range‑bound. [52]
Quant and DCF‑based models
- A Simply Wall St discounted cash‑flow model currently suggests Exxon may be undervalued by roughly 60% versus its estimate of intrinsic value, though DCF outputs are highly sensitive to long‑term commodity assumptions. [53]
- Algorithmic price‑projection sites like CoinPriceForecast see XOM reaching the low‑ to mid‑$120s over the next year and potentially the mid‑$130s by 2027, but such models are based on historical price patterns rather than fundamentals and should be treated with caution. [54]
Is Exxon Mobil Stock Undervalued or Fairly Priced?
Putting the pieces together, today’s mid‑$117 price embeds several competing narratives:
Bullish arguments
- Low‑cost growth: Guyana and the Permian offer multi‑decade, low‑breakeven production growth that can remain profitable even if oil prices drift lower. [55]
- Balance‑sheet strength: Net debt levels and debt‑to‑capital ratios are among the lowest in the integrated oil peer group, supporting large buybacks and acquisitions. [56]
- Visible projects: The Bahia NGL pipeline stake, Rovuma LNG and Golden Pass LNG provide a pipeline of medium‑ and long‑term volume growth beyond 2030. [57]
- Shareholder returns: A 3.5% yield, a decades‑long dividend growth record, and a $20 billion buyback plan for 2025 collectively support a mid‑teens potential total return if the stock re‑rates toward consensus targets. [58]
Bearish and cautious arguments
- Valuation premium: A ~7.6× EV/EBITDA multiple and premium P/E versus many peers leave less margin of safety if oil or refining margins weaken. [59]
- Cyclical exposure: Earnings remain heavily tied to oil, gas and refining cycles, with chemical margins currently at or near trough levels. [60]
- Execution and geopolitical risk: Expansion in places like Iraq’s West Qurna 2 and Mozambique adds country‑risk overlays to otherwise attractive assets. [61]
- ESG and policy headwinds: Climate litigation (e.g., Connecticut’s case), environmental penalties and policy uncertainty around energy transition can affect both cash flows and investor appetite. [62]
For investors who believe oil and gas will remain structurally tight and that Exxon’s megaprojects will be executed on time and on budget, the stock can credibly be framed as modestly undervalued relative to its long‑term cash‑flow potential. For those expecting faster transition policies, prolonged LNG margin compression or harsher climate‑related penalties, today’s premium may appear fully priced.
2026–2027 Outlook: Scenario‑Based View (Not a Price Prediction)
Because future prices depend heavily on macro factors, any “forecast” is best thought of in scenarios rather than point estimates.
1. Base‑case scenario (in line with consensus)
- Brent crude averages in the $70–80/bbl range; refining margins normalise from recent highs but remain healthy.
- Guyana and Permian volumes ramp as planned; Bahia pipeline and other midstream projects progress on schedule. [63]
- XOM roughly meets current Street EPS expectations, and the stock trades near the consensus 12‑month target band of $128–$132, implying high‑single‑digit to low‑teens upside plus the dividend. [64]
2. Bullish scenario
- Oil and gas prices remain firm or move higher due to under‑investment and geopolitical disruptions.
- LNG projects (Golden Pass and Rovuma) see strong long‑term contracting at attractive spreads, and petrochemical markets tighten by late decade. [65]
- Under this outcome, targets from the upper end of analyst forecasts (e.g. UBS/Piper in the mid‑$140s and some independent calls up to the $150s) become more plausible over a multi‑year horizon—but still not guaranteed. [66]
3. Bearish scenario
- A global slowdown pushes oil into the $50s; LNG margins remain squeezed; chemicals stay oversupplied longer than expected. [67]
- Low‑carbon projects remain delayed while litigation and regulatory costs creep higher. [68]
- In that world, earnings and cash flows could undershoot today’s expectations, leading to a derating toward or below the current EV/EBITDA industry average and a share price closer to the lower end of analyst ranges (low‑$110s, or worse if the cycle turns sharply). [69]
Key Catalysts to Watch Next
Investors tracking Exxon Mobil over the coming quarters should keep an eye on:
- Corporate Plan Update – December 9, 2025: Exxon’s upcoming investor webcast will likely refine capex guidance, buyback plans and the pace of low‑carbon investments. [70]
- Progress on West Qurna 2 negotiations: The U.S. Treasury has temporarily cleared talks for potential buyers of Lukoil’s stake until mid‑December; any announced deal terms could be a material signal about Exxon’s risk appetite in Iraq. [71]
- Execution on Singapore and Fife closures: Timelines, restructuring charges and impacts on chemical margins will be scrutinised. [72]
- LNG project milestones: FID at Rovuma LNG (expected 2026) and commissioning steps at Golden Pass LNG will influence long‑term growth expectations. [73]
- Legal developments: Any major rulings or settlements in U.S. climate litigation (including the Connecticut case) could set precedents affecting Exxon and the wider industry. [74]
Bottom Line
As of December 4, 2025, Exxon Mobil stock represents a high‑quality, moderately valued energy major with:
- A strong balance sheet and massive low‑cost resource base
- A dependable and slowly growing dividend
- A deep queue of long‑dated oil, gas and LNG projects
balanced against:
- Cyclical commodity exposure
- Ongoing petrochemical and hydrogen uncertainty
- Rising legal, policy and ESG challenges
For dividend‑oriented and long‑horizon investors comfortable with fossil‑fuel exposure, XOM can still plausibly fit as a core holding. More growth‑ or ESG‑focused investors may prefer to wait for either a better entry point or clearer evidence that Exxon’s transition strategy will materially move the earnings needle.
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. stockanalysis.com, 3. stockanalysis.com, 4. coinpriceforecast.com, 5. www.nasdaq.com, 6. www.nasdaq.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. egyptoil-gas.com, 10. www.nasdaq.com, 11. www.nasdaq.com, 12. www.marketbeat.com, 13. www.marketbeat.com, 14. www.marketbeat.com, 15. www.stocktitan.net, 16. investor.exxonmobil.com, 17. investor.exxonmobil.com, 18. investor.exxonmobil.com, 19. investor.exxonmobil.com, 20. investor.exxonmobil.com, 21. investor.exxonmobil.com, 22. investor.exxonmobil.com, 23. investor.exxonmobil.com, 24. investor.exxonmobil.com, 25. investor.exxonmobil.com, 26. investor.exxonmobil.com, 27. stockanalysis.com, 28. investor.exxonmobil.com, 29. investor.exxonmobil.com, 30. apnews.com, 31. investor.exxonmobil.com, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. www.reuters.com, 34. www.reuters.com, 35. www.reuters.com, 36. www.reuters.com, 37. stockanalysis.com, 38. egyptoil-gas.com, 39. investor.exxonmobil.com, 40. www.reuters.com, 41. www.reuters.com, 42. www.upstreamonline.com, 43. www.canarymedia.com, 44. www.canarymedia.com, 45. stockanalysis.com, 46. www.marketwatch.com, 47. valueinvesting.io, 48. www.marketbeat.com, 49. www.gurufocus.com, 50. finance.yahoo.com, 51. seekingalpha.com, 52. www.nasdaq.com, 53. simplywall.st, 54. coinpriceforecast.com, 55. investor.exxonmobil.com, 56. investor.exxonmobil.com, 57. www.reuters.com, 58. investor.exxonmobil.com, 59. www.nasdaq.com, 60. investor.exxonmobil.com, 61. www.reuters.com, 62. www.canarymedia.com, 63. investor.exxonmobil.com, 64. stockanalysis.com, 65. www.reuters.com, 66. www.gurufocus.com, 67. www.reuters.com, 68. www.reuters.com, 69. www.nasdaq.com, 70. investor.exxonmobil.com, 71. www.reuters.com, 72. www.reuters.com, 73. www.reuters.com, 74. www.canarymedia.com
