Published: December 11, 2025
Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM) has packed a lot into the past few weeks. Since November 21, 2025, the oil major has:
- Paused a flagship clean hydrogen project in Texas
- Agreed to take a big stake in a new Permian-focused liquids pipeline
- Lifted force majeure on a major LNG project in Mozambique
- Raised its 2030 earnings and cash-flow targets without adding extra capital spending
All of this has come as the stock trades near the high end of its 52‑week range and the oil market digests forecasts for softer crude prices in 2026.
Below is a detailed, news‑style rundown of what’s changed for Exxon Mobil stock since November 21 and how analysts now see the risk–reward going into 2026.
Key Takeaways
- Share price: XOM trades around $119 per share as of mid‑day December 11, 2025, giving Exxon a market capitalization of roughly $500+ billion. [1]
- Since November 21: The stock has inched higher from a $117.08 close on November 21, helped by a post‑announcement bump after Exxon raised its 2030 earnings and cash‑flow targets. [2]
- Capital returns: The quarterly dividend was increased 4% to $1.03 per share (about a 3.5% yield at current prices), and the company plans to repurchase roughly $20 billion in stock annually through 2026, implying ~4% share count reduction per year if maintained. [3]
- 2030 plan upgrade: Exxon now targets $25 billion in earnings growth and $35 billion in cash‑flow growth from 2024 to 2030 at constant prices and margins, up $5 billion on each metric versus its prior plan, with no increase in capital spending. [4]
- Analyst view: Street consensus is a “Buy” / “Moderate Buy” with average 12‑month price targets clustered around $128–130 per share, implying roughly 8–9% price upside plus the dividend. [5]
- Key swing factors for 2026: Oil price trajectory (many forecasts point to Brent in the mid‑50s to low‑60s), execution of Permian and Guyana growth, and how aggressively Exxon does – or does not – invest in low‑carbon projects. [6]
Stock Performance Since November 21, 2025
On November 21, 2025, XOM closed at $117.08, on volume of roughly 15.7 million shares. [7]
Since then:
- The stock has traded mostly in the mid‑teens to high‑teens $110s, brushing up against the $120 level, with a recent close of $119.54 on December 10 and intraday trading around $119.13 on December 11. [8]
- Market cap has hovered near $500–505 billion, keeping Exxon among the largest public energy companies globally and around the #18 company worldwide by market value. [9]
Importantly, StatMuse and other data providers estimate that XOM has delivered a low‑teens percentage total return year‑to‑date, placing it ahead of many defensive income stocks but behind the highest‑beta plays in the energy and tech sectors. [10]
The most notable price reaction in this period came after the December 9 corporate plan update:
- AP coverage via SFGate noted that Exxon Mobil climbed about 2% and was one of the strongest positive contributors to the S&P 500 after increasing its profit outlook over the next five years, helped by strength in the Permian and offshore Guyana. [11]
- MarketBeat reported that XOM rose 1.1% to around $119.50 on December 10, with trading volume up about 23% versus average. [12]
In short: since November 21, XOM has drifted higher rather than rocketing upward, but the tone of trading turned more constructive after management raised its 2030 plan.
The November 21 Turning Point: Hydrogen Pause and Midstream Expansion
Hydrogen mega‑project put on ice
On November 21, 2025, Reuters reported that Exxon had paused plans to build one of the world’s largest hydrogen production facilities at its Baytown, Texas complex. CEO Darren Woods cited weak customer demand and a lack of long‑term offtake contracts at prices that would justify the high costs of “blue hydrogen” with carbon capture. [13]
Key details:
- The Baytown project would have produced around 1 billion cubic feet per day of hydrogen with captured CO₂ stored underground. [14]
- Exxon and partners have already invested roughly $500 million; total costs were projected in the multi‑billion‑dollar range. [15]
- Management stressed the project isn’t dead – it can be restarted if and when customer demand and policy support improve. [16]
A separate Barron’s report added that Exxon is cutting its broader low‑carbon spending target from $30 billion to $20 billion through 2030, reflecting a more cautious stance on capital‑intensive decarbonization projects amid slower policy progress and limited mandated demand for clean hydrogen. [17]
Investor takeaway:
Near term, pausing an expensive low‑return project and trimming low‑carbon capex supports free cash flow and returns on capital, which equity markets tend to like. Longer term, it may increase Exxon’s exposure to transition risk if policy and customer demand for low‑carbon fuels accelerate faster than expected.
Bahia NGL pipeline: doubling down on the Permian
The same day, November 21, Exxon announced a deal to acquire a 40% joint interest in the Bahia natural gas liquids (NGL) pipeline from Enterprise Products Partners. [18]
Highlights of the Bahia deal:
- Route & scale: 550‑mile pipeline moving NGLs from the Midland and Delaware sub‑basins in the Permian to Enterprise’s Mont Belvieu complex in Texas.
- Initial capacity: About 600,000 barrels per day of NGLs, with plans to expand to 1 million barrels per day by 2027. [19]
- Strategic fit: The expansion will include an extension to Exxon’s Cowboy gas processing plant and connections to other Delaware Basin facilities, effectively integrating Exxon’s upstream production with midstream takeaway and fractionation capacity. [20]
This dovetails with Reuters’ report that the Permian Basin is set to maintain record output (around 6.76 million barrels per day in December 2025) for years, thanks to larger, more efficient players like Exxon, which plans to double its Permian production by 2030. [21]
Investor takeaway:
Bahia is classic Exxon Mobil: a brownfield, infrastructure‑style project tied to low‑cost resources. It should help lower transportation costs, reduce bottlenecks, and support Exxon’s plan to grow Permian volumes, all of which support steady cash flow even if oil prices soften.
Mozambique LNG back on track
On November 21, industry intelligence provider IndexBox reported that Exxon had lifted force majeure on its Rovuma LNG project in Mozambique, with a final investment decision targeted for 2026 and first LNG by 2030. [22]
Alongside the Permian and Guyana, LNG is one of the three pillars in Exxon’s growth blueprint:
- LNG projects like Rovuma and Golden Pass are designed to deliver “infrastructure‑like” long‑term cash flows, with multi‑year offtake contracts generally less volatile than spot oil prices. [23]
Investor takeaway:
Rovuma’s revival underscores that Exxon is still investing heavily in long‑lived, low‑cost projects, even as it slows some low‑carbon spending. For long‑term holders, this supports the idea that XOM is gradually becoming more of a global energy infrastructure platform than a pure “oil price trade.”
Q3 2025: Still a Cash Machine
While your requested window starts on November 21, the third‑quarter 2025 earnings report on October 31 is crucial context for understanding the recent analyst commentary.
From Exxon’s Q3 release: [24]
- Earnings: $7.5 billion for Q3, or $1.76 per share (diluted).
- Cash flow from operations: $14.8 billion for the quarter; $39.3 billion year‑to‑date 2025.
- Free cash flow: $6.3 billion in Q3; $20.6 billion year‑to‑date.
- Shareholder returns: $9.4 billion in the quarter, split between $4.2 billion in dividends and $5.1 billion in share repurchases.
- Dividend increase: The fourth‑quarter dividend was raised 4% to $1.03 per share, payable December 10, 2025, extending Exxon’s dividend‑growth streak to 43 consecutive years. [25]
- Balance sheet: Net‑debt‑to‑capital around 9.5%, with a cash balance near $14 billion, leaving ample capacity for both investment and buybacks. [26]
Operationally, Q3 also highlighted:
- Record production in both the Permian (nearly 1.7 million boe/d) and Guyana (gross production >700,000 boe/d). [27]
- Early startup of the Yellowtail development in Guyana and a final investment decision on Hammerhead, another Stabroek Block project, extending Exxon’s long‑term growth runway. [28]
These results set the stage for the upgraded 2030 plan unveiled in December.
December 9 Corporate Plan: More Earnings, Same Capex
On December 9, 2025, Exxon published a major update to its Corporate Plan through 2030. [29]
Key financial targets (all at constant prices and margins, assuming roughly $65 real Brent):
- Earnings growth: Now $25 billion above 2024 levels by 2030, an increase of $5 billion versus the prior plan.
- Cash‑flow growth: Now $35 billion above 2024, also +$5 billion versus prior guidance.
- Surplus cash: Roughly $145 billion in cumulative surplus cash flow expected over the next five years, at $65 real Brent.
- Return on capital employed (ROCE): Targeting >17% by 2030.
- Structural cost savings: Increasing cumulative cost‑savings target to $20 billion vs 2019, up from a prior $18 billion goal.
Capital returns:
- Exxon expects to repurchase about $20 billion of stock in 2025 and to maintain that pace through 2026, “assuming reasonable market conditions.” [30]
- Combined with the $4.12 per share annualized dividend, that implies a total shareholder “yield” (dividends + buybacks) in the high single digits annually at current prices.
Growth drivers:
- Upstream:
- Total production expected to reach 5.5 million boe/d by 2030.
- “Advantaged” assets (Permian, Guyana, LNG) projected to reach 3.7 million boe/d, about 65% of total volumes. [31]
- Expects to double Permian production versus 2024 to roughly 2.5 million boe/d by 2030, helped by Pioneer Natural Resources integration and proprietary technologies like lightweight proppants. [32]
- Product Solutions (refining & chemicals):
- More than $9 billion in earnings growth expected by 2030 versus 2024, driven by high‑value fuels, chemicals, and specialty products. [33]
- Low Carbon Solutions:
- About $20 billion in lower‑emissions investments planned between 2025 and 2030, though spending here is being paced and re‑prioritized given policy uncertainty and project economics. [34]
Market reaction was broadly positive. As noted earlier, Exxon’s stock popped 1–3% following the announcement and was highlighted in AP and other coverage as one of the main drivers lifting the broader market. [35]
Analyst Ratings, Price Targets and Valuation
Street consensus
Different data providers summarize the analyst view slightly differently, but the picture is consistent:
- Consensus rating:
- StockAnalysis and Benzinga data show an overall “Buy” / “Moderate Buy” rating, with a mix of Buy and Hold calls and very few outright Sells. [36]
- Average 12‑month price target:
Recent broker moves:
- Morgan Stanley: Reaffirmed “Overweight”, raising its price target from $135 to $137 on December 10. [39]
- Barclays: Trimmed its target from $127 to $126 but kept an “Overweight” rating. [40]
- BofA Securities: Maintains a “Neutral” rating; lowered its target slightly from $119 to $118 on December 11. [41]
MarketBeat’s snapshot shows a consensus target around $128.5 and describes Exxon’s rating as a “Moderate Buy,” with a P/E ratio in the mid‑teens (around 17) and a market cap near $504 billion. [42]
Independent stock analyses
Several recent deep‑dive commentaries add color:
- Dividend + upside framing:
- A detailed analysis from DirectorsTalk Interviews pegs current trading around the top of the 52‑week range, highlights a dividend yield of around 3.5%, and argues for roughly 9–10% price upside based on valuation metrics and cash‑flow strength. [43]
- Stability vs. yield:
- One Seeking Alpha contributor recently shifted their view from “strong buy” to “buy,” emphasizing Exxon’s defensive, stable profile and capital discipline while noting that the flat share price in recent months slightly tempers near‑term return expectations. [44]
- Technical/short‑term setup:
- A technically oriented note on HeyGoTrade describes XOM as digesting gains near resistance around $120–121, with a preferred “accumulation zone” between roughly $115 and $117 and upside targets in the $124–126 area under favorable conditions, and $130+ in a stronger oil and “energy beta” rally. [45]
Put together, analysts seem to be saying:
At today’s price, Exxon Mobil isn’t a screaming bargain, but it still offers solid mid‑single‑digit to low‑double‑digit total‑return potential (price appreciation + dividend), especially if management delivers on its 2030 plan and oil doesn’t undershoot the mid‑60s for long.
Oil Price and Demand Outlook for 2026
Any XOM forecast ultimately rests on oil and gas prices. Recent forecasts are mixed but lean toward modestly lower prices in 2026 compared with 2025:
- The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), in its Short‑Term Energy Outlook, expects Brent crude to average around $55 per barrel in the first quarter of 2026 and stay near that level for much of the year, as global inventories build. [46]
- A recent Reuters poll and bank research summarized on OilPrice.com suggests WTI averaging about $59 and Brent around $62.2 in 2026, with Goldman Sachs’ bearish case pointing to WTI as low as $53 on oversupply. [47]
- OPEC’s latest monthly report envisions global oil demand rising by about 1.4 million barrels per day in 2026, and its own data show supply and demand roughly balanced in that year – far from a huge glut. [48]
- The International Energy Agency (IEA) recently trimmed its projected 2026 surplus to around 3.84 million barrels per day, citing stronger demand and lower supply from sanctioned nations, but it still expects ample supply to cap prices. [49]
For Exxon:
- Management’s 2030 plan is benchmarked to $65 real Brent, so a world where Brent averages mid‑50s to low‑60s would likely pressure headline earnings versus those constant‑price targets, though cost cuts and high‑quality assets partly offset this. [50]
- On the other hand, Exxon’s low breakeven costs in the Permian and Guyana, plus its refining and chemical businesses, position it better than many peers to weather a softer price environment. [51]
Dividend, Buybacks and Balance Sheet
From an income‑investor perspective, Exxon Mobil’s appeal is straightforward:
- Annualized dividend: $4.12 per share (four quarters of $1.03), giving a yield around 3.5% at a ~$119 share price. [52]
- Dividend streak: 43 consecutive years of annual dividend per‑share increases, putting Exxon in a small club of long‑term dividend growers. [53]
- Payout ratio: Roughly the mid‑50% range on recent earnings and free cash flow, leaving room for both reinvestment and buybacks. [54]
The buyback program is equally important:
- At a committed pace of $20 billion per year through 2026, buybacks equate to roughly 4% of market capitalization annually at current valuations. [55]
- Combined with the dividend, that implies an “owner yield” approaching the high single digits before any organic growth in earnings per share.
The balance sheet is also conservative by sector standards, with net‑debt‑to‑capital under 10% and strong liquidity, which should help Exxon sustain capital returns through typical commodity cycles. [56]
Strategic Shifts: Less “Green Capex,” More Cash Flow
Since November 21, a clear theme has emerged:
- Hydrogen pause + low‑carbon capex cut: The Baytown hydrogen project is on hold, and management has signaled a more selective approach to low‑carbon investments, prioritizing projects with clear customers and attractive returns. [57]
- Still investing in decarbonization, but carefully: Exxon still plans about $20 billion in lower‑emissions investments between 2025 and 2030, including CCS and other projects that align with its core competencies. [58]
How markets may read this:
- Equity investors tend to reward capital discipline and high near‑term returns, so dialing back speculative hydrogen spending in favor of proven upstream, LNG, and midstream projects is likely supportive for the stock in the short to medium term.
- However, the move may draw criticism from ESG‑focused investors and could increase the risk of being “behind the curve” if policy or technology suddenly shifts in favor of hydrogen and other low‑carbon solutions.
Is Exxon Mobil Stock a Buy After These Moves?
Whether XOM is attractive at around $119 depends heavily on your time horizon and risk tolerance. Here’s how the setup looks based on the latest news, forecasts, and analyses since November 21:
What supports the bull case
- Strong cash generation and capital returns
- Billions in quarterly free cash flow, a 3.5% dividend yield, and ~4% annual buyback‑driven share shrink give a built‑in tailwind to per‑share metrics. [59]
- High‑quality growth pipeline
- Permian, Guyana, and LNG projects are low‑cost, long‑life assets that should remain profitable even in a $55–60 oil world. [60]
- Upgraded 2030 plan
- Management has enough confidence to raise earnings and cash‑flow targets by $5 billion each without raising capex, which is a strong vote of confidence in execution and cost control. [61]
- Defensive profile in a choppy market
- With a diversified business (upstream, refining, chemicals, and now more LNG and midstream), Exxon tends to behave as a lower‑beta, income‑oriented stock, which can be attractive if broader markets turn volatile. [62]
What could go wrong
- Oil prices undershoot expectations
- If Brent averages closer to $50–55 instead of the mid‑60s assumed in Exxon’s constant‑price scenarios, actual earnings may fall short of the 2030 targets, and valuation multiples could compress. [63]
- Energy transition and policy risk
- Cutting back on high‑profile low‑carbon projects might look smart today, but could hurt Exxon’s strategic positioning if regulators and customers ramp up decarbonization requirements faster than the company expects. [64]
- Execution risk in mega‑projects
- Projects in Mozambique, Guyana, and Saudi Arabia (e.g., the Samref petrochemical JV discussions) carry the usual execution and geopolitical risks common to large international energy projects. [65]
- Valuation not “dirt cheap”
- With a P/E around the mid‑teens and the stock near its 52‑week high, Exxon is no longer deeply discounted. Much of the quality and capital‑return story is already reflected in the price, which makes future returns more sensitive to macro surprises. [66]
Bottom Line
From November 21, 2025 onward, Exxon Mobil has sent a clear message:
“We will prioritize high‑return, core‑competency projects and aggressive capital returns, while pacing more speculative low‑carbon bets.”
For investors, that translates into:
- A large, relatively stable energy franchise with:
- A solid dividend,
- A meaningful buyback, and
- A visible pipeline of advantaged projects through 2030.
- Moderate but not explosive price upside based on current analyst targets – but with the potential for better‑than‑expected total returns if:
- Oil prices hold closer to the mid‑60s than the low‑50s, and
- Exxon continues to beat its own cost‑savings and project‑execution goals.
References
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