Exxon Mobil (XOM) Stock Today: 2030 Plan Upgrade, Hydrogen Pause and 2026 Price Targets

Meta description: Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) updates its 2030 growth plan, pauses a flagship hydrogen project and attracts fresh analyst upgrades. Here’s what it all means for the stock as of December 10, 2025.

Data as of market close December 9 and news through December 10, 2025. This article is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice.

Exxon Mobil (XOM) stock snapshot on December 10, 2025

Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM) is trading around $118 per share, with the last recorded close at $118.25 on December 9, 2025. ^[1]

Key trading metrics:

52‑week range: roughly $97.80 – $120.81, leaving the stock about 2% below its 52‑week high. ^[2]
Market capitalization: about $499 billion. ^[3]
YTD performance: price-only gains are around 10%, while some total-return measures (including dividends) show low‑ to mid‑teens returns for 2025. ^[4]
Dividend yield: about 3.3–3.4%, based on a trailing dividend close to $4 per share. ^[5]

Against this backdrop, Exxon is rolling out a more ambitious 2030 plan, resetting parts of its low‑carbon strategy and attracting fresh analyst upgrades—all of which are shaping the stock’s outlook as we head into 2026.

The big catalyst: Exxon’s upgraded 2030 plan

On December 9, 2025, ExxonMobil published a major update to its Corporate Plan through 2030, raising its medium‑term ambitions without raising capital spending guidance. ^[6]

More earnings and cash, same capex

According to the company, by 2030 it now expects:

$25 billion of earnings growth versus 2024, at constant prices and margins (up $5 billion versus the prior plan).
$35 billion of cash‑flow growth over the same period, also up $5 billion from its previous outlook.
Cumulative surplus cash flow of about $145 billion through 2030, assuming Brent crude averages $65 per barrel in real terms. ^[7]
Return on capital employed (ROCE) above 17% by 2030. ^[8]

Exxon also plans to maintain a $20 billion per year share‑repurchase pace through 2026, provided market conditions are “reasonable,” which should drive faster per‑share earnings and cash‑flow growth than its headline totals. ^[9]

Permian, Guyana and LNG: the “advantaged assets” engine

The upgraded plan leans heavily on three “advantaged” pillars:

Permian Basin (U.S. shale):
- Exxon now expects to double Permian production to ~2.5 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) by 2030, up about 200,000 boe/d versus last year’s plan. ^[10]
- Synergies from the Pioneer Natural Resources acquisition are now estimated at $4 billion annually, double initial expectations, supported by proprietary drilling and completion technologies such as lightweight proppant that is already boosting well recoveries by around 20% in pilots. ^[11]
Guyana:
- In Q3 2025, Exxon reported record production in Guyana, with gross output over 700,000 boe/d after starting up the Yellowtail development four months ahead of schedule and under budget. ^[12]
- Installed capacity in Guyana now exceeds 900,000 boe/d, and a seventh project, Hammerhead, is expected to add another 150,000 boe/d by 2029. ^[13]
LNG & Product Solutions:
- The company expects total Upstream production to reach about 5.5 million boe/d by 2030, with Permian, Guyana and LNG representing about 65% of volumes. ^[14]
- Downstream and chemicals (“Product Solutions”) are projected to add more than $9 billion of earnings growth by 2030 vs. 2024, driven by high‑value fuels, lubricants and performance chemicals. ^[15]

For investors, the updated plan effectively says: Exxon believes it can grow earnings at roughly 13% per year on average to 2030, without spending more capex than previously planned, largely by squeezing more out of its existing asset base and technology. ^[16]

AI, data centers and gas‑fired power: a new demand story

Exxon is also positioning itself as a beneficiary of the AI data‑center boom—but in a very Exxon way: through natural gas, carbon capture and power infrastructure.

Gas‑fired plants for data centers

Axios reports that Exxon plans to build gas‑fired power plants in Louisiana and Mississippi to support data‑center loads, integrating these with its carbon‑capture capabilities. ^[17]

At the same time, NextEra Energy—a major renewables and power player—recently described a coming “golden age” of U.S. electricity demand, forecasting nearly 60% growth in power consumption from 2025 to 2045, with AI data centers driving more than 40% of the increase. ^[18] Exxon’s role in this story:

It is collaborating with players like NextEra on “carbon‑abated” gas‑fired projects for data centers. ^[19]
It has large natural‑gas output and growing carbon capture and storage (CCS) capabilities, including the largest CO₂ pipeline network in the U.S. via its Denbury acquisition. ^[20]

If data‑center power demand accelerates as projected, Exxon could benefit not just from selling molecules (gas), but also from long‑term CCS‑enabled power contracts and higher utilization of its low‑carbon infrastructure.

AI inside the oilfields

On the operations side, Exxon is highlighting growing use of AI and advanced analytics to:

Interpret well and reservoir data.
Optimize drilling and completions.
Reduce costs and improve recovery factors in the Permian and other assets. ^[21]

That technology push is part of what underpins its confidence in higher recoveries and lower unit costs through 2030.

Hydrogen on ice: low‑carbon strategy gets more cautious

The bullish 2030 plan is accompanied by a notable pullback in low‑carbon spending and hydrogen ambitions, which investors in the energy transition space will be watching closely.

Baytown blue hydrogen project paused

In late November, CEO Darren Woods confirmed to Reuters that Exxon has paused plans for what would have been one of the world’s largest low‑carbon hydrogen plants at Baytown, Texas, citing weak customer demand and economics. ^[22]

More broadly, reporting from outlets such as the Financial Times highlights that dozens of large low‑carbon hydrogen projects worldwide, including Exxon’s, have been delayed or scrapped in 2025 as costs stay high and policy support remains uncertain. ^[23]

Low‑carbon budget cut from $30B to $20B

Earlier in the energy transition cycle, Exxon had talked about investing up to $30 billion in lower‑emission projects between 2025 and 2030. ^[24]

In the new 2030 plan, that figure has been cut to about $20 billion over the same period, a reduction of roughly one‑third—a shift also noted by outlets like Axios and The Times. ^[25]

Exxon still expects its low‑carbon businesses (CCS, hydrogen, lithium, carbon materials and others) to have the potential to generate about $13 billion in earnings by 2040, but it is clearly pacing investment according to policy and customer readiness rather than pushing for rapid near‑term scale at all costs. ^[26]

For investors, this reduces near‑term execution and policy risk, but may disappoint those hoping Exxon would aggressively lead the hydrogen build‑out.

Q3 2025 earnings: still strong, but past the super‑cycle peak

Exxon’s latest reported quarter is Q3 2025, released on October 31, 2025. ^[27]

Headline numbers

GAAP earnings:$7.5 billion, or $1.76 per diluted share.
Earnings excluding “identified items”:$8.1 billion, or $1.88 per share. ^[28]
Cash flow from operations:$14.8 billion in Q3; $39.3 billion year‑to‑date.
Free cash flow (FCF):$6.3 billion in Q3; $20.6 billion year‑to‑date. ^[29]
Shareholder distributions:$9.4 billion for the quarter, including $4.2 billion in dividends and $5.1 billion in buybacks. ^[30]

Year‑to‑date 2025 GAAP earnings of $22.3 billion are down from $26.1 billion in the same period of 2024, reflecting lower commodity prices and weaker chemical margins compared with the 2022–2023 super‑cycle peak. ^[31]

Operational highlights

Q3 also underscored how operational execution is driving the long‑term story:

Upstream production averaged 4.8 million boe/d, up 139,000 boe/d versus Q2 2025.
Permian production hit a record near 1.7 million boe/d.
Guyana gross production topped 700,000 boe/d, helped by the early start‑up of Yellowtail. ^[32]
Structural cost savings since 2019 surpassed $14 billion, and Exxon now targets $20 billion in cumulative savings by 2030. ^[33]

External commentary (e.g., from 24/7 Wall St) notes that while earnings have retreated from the 2022 peak of about $55.7 billion to around $33.7 billion in 2024, profitability and cash generation remain strong enough that current earnings and FCF payout ratios in the mid‑50% range still look healthy, backed by a robust balance sheet. ^[34]

Dividend, buybacks and balance sheet: the income story

For income‑focused investors, Exxon remains a blue‑chip dividend name.

43 consecutive years of dividend growth

In Q3, Exxon’s board:

Raised the quarterly dividend by 4%, to $1.03 per share, up from $0.99. ^[35]
Declared the Q4 2025 dividend payable on December 10, 2025, which marks 43 consecutive years of annual dividend‑per‑share increases. ^[36]

Recent analyses peg:

Trailing 12‑month dividends at roughly $3.96–$4.12 per share, implying a dividend yield around 3.3–3.4% at current prices. ^[37]
Earnings payout ratio near 58% and FCF payout ratio around 54%, with operating cash flow covering dividends more than 3x, giving the dividend a substantial buffer even in a softer earnings environment. ^[38]

Many commentators now describe Exxon as one of the more reliable dividend payers in the S&P 500, even if its inclusion in specific “Dividend Aristocrat” indices depends on index‑provider rules. ^[39]

Balance sheet and buybacks

Exxon’s Q3 balance sheet remains conservative:

Debt‑to‑capital ratio:13.5%.
Net‑debt‑to‑capital:9.5%, with a cash balance around $13.9 billion at quarter‑end. ^[40]

With $27.8 billion returned to shareholders in the first nine months of 2025—roughly $12.9 billion in dividends and $14.9 billion in buybacks—Exxon is on pace to repurchase about $20 billion of stock in 2025 and intends to keep that buyback pace through 2026 if conditions cooperate. ^[41]

Wall Street forecasts, price targets and valuation

Analyst ratings and targets

Recent analyst actions and aggregated data show a generally positive, but not euphoric, view:

Morgan Stanley just raised its price target from $135 to $137 and maintained an “Overweight” rating, citing improved growth prospects and strong cash‑flow generation under the updated 2030 plan. ^[42]
A MarketScreener summary of FactSet data shows:
- An average price target around $131.
- Multiple target hikes, including Evercore ISI to $145 (Outperform), Wolfe Research to $141 (Outperform), Goldman Sachs to $124 (Neutral), Citigroup to $118 (Neutral) and HSBC to $125 (Hold). ^[43]

Other aggregators show similar numbers:

MarketBeat lists 2 Strong Buy, 8 Buy and 12 Hold ratings, giving Exxon a “Moderate Buy” consensus and an average target of about $127.89. ^[44]
StockAnalysis reports a consensus “Buy” rating from 16 analysts, with an average target around $129.63 and a range of $105–$156 over the next 12 months. ^[45]
ValueInvesting.io pegs the average target closer to $132.25, with a range of $106.05–$163.80, and characterizes the overall recommendation as Hold based on 33 analysts. ^[46]

Stacking those against a current price near $118, Wall Street is broadly signaling mid‑single‑ to low‑double‑digit price upside (roughly 8–12%) over the next year, plus the roughly 3–4% dividend yield.

Earnings forecasts and multiples

Consensus estimates and valuation metrics paint a picture of modest growth at a reasonable price:

2025 EPS consensus: around $6.88 per share, according to Nasdaq’s compiled estimates. ^[47]
At around $118 per share, that implies a forward P/E near 17, in line with other sources citing Exxon’s current P/E in the 16.7–17.2x range. ^[48]
Several services estimate EV/EBITDA around 8x, slightly above the company’s 5‑year average near 7x but not stretched, especially compared with broader equity markets. ^[49]

Relative to the broader S&P 500, Exxon trades at a discount on growth tech multiples but a premium to many cyclical energy peers, reflecting its integrated model, balance sheet strength and long‑lived asset base.

Independent fundamental analysis: is XOM cheap?

Beyond broker targets, independent valuation work has become much more visible around the new plan and Q3 earnings.

Deep DCF upside (with big assumptions)

Simply Wall St, for example, recently ran a two‑stage discounted cash‑flow model using:

Trailing free cash flow around $28.1 billion.
A path that sees FCF rising to roughly $31.6 billion in 2026, over $40.9 billion by 2029, and roughly $52.3 billion by 2035. ^[50]

On those assumptions, their model estimates a “fair value” near $247 per share, implying the stock is trading at about a 52% discount to intrinsic value and labeling XOM as “UNDERVALUED.” ^[51]

That is an aggressive upside scenario, heavily dependent on:

Exxon’s ability to deliver and sustain high FCF growth for a decade plus.
Commodity prices staying supportive.
No major policy or demand shocks to the hydrocarbon business.

P/E vs sector and market

The same analysis compares Exxon’s ~16.5x P/E with:

An oil & gas industry average near 13.5x.
A broader market average around 24x. ^[52]

In other words, the market is granting Exxon a modest premium over the sector, but still a discount to the S&P 500—consistent with a high‑quality, cash‑generative cyclical rather than a hyper‑growth tech stock.

Dividend resilience, but earnings trending down from the peak

24/7 Wall St and other income‑focused outlets point out that:

Net income has fallen from about $55.7 billion in 2022 to $33.7 billion in 2024, and Q3 2025 earnings were down just over 12% year‑on‑year.
Yet payout ratios and cash flow coverage remain comfortable and the balance sheet is strong, suggesting Exxon’s 43‑year dividend streak is still on solid footing—at least unless oil prices fall much further or stay depressed for an extended period. ^[53]

The upshot: many fundamental screens and DCF models still see XOM as cheap to fairly valued, but there is real cyclical and energy‑transition risk embedded in those conclusions.

Strategic drivers to watch beyond 2025

For investors thinking beyond the next few quarters, the main levers that will drive XOM’s long‑term value include:

1. Execution in the Permian and Guyana

Permian: hitting the target of 2.5 million boe/d by 2030 while achieving the promised $4 billion in annual synergies and 20% higher recoveries would cement Exxon’s position as the basin’s productivity leader. ^[54]
Guyana: continuing to deliver projects like Yellowtail and Hammerhead early and under budget, while navigating political and regulatory risk, will be key to sustaining high‑margin growth. ^[55]

2. LNG expansion and refining/chemicals upgrades

New LNG projects in Papua New Guinea and Mozambique are expected to come online later this decade, further tilting the portfolio toward long‑lived, flexible gas supply aligned with global decarbonization pathways. ^[56]
In refining and chemicals, Exxon is prioritizing projects that increase high‑value products and improve energy efficiency, targeting more than $9 billion in earnings growth by 2030 from Product Solutions alone. ^[57]

3. Carbon capture, pipelines and low‑carbon data centers

The Denbury acquisition gives Exxon around 1,300 miles of CO₂ pipelines and at least 10 sequestration sites in key Gulf Coast regions—critical infrastructure for CCS growth. ^[58]
Exxon says it already has roughly 9 million tonnes per year of CO₂ under contract with third‑party customers and has started up its first large‑scale, end‑to‑end CCS system. ^[59]
The company is pursuing CCS‑enabled low‑carbon data‑center projects, aiming for a final investment decision by late 2026, which could create a new high‑margin niche if power‑hungry AI demand continues to surge. ^[60]

4. Policy and energy‑transition risk

The decision to pause Baytown hydrogen and cut the low‑carbon capex plan from $30B to $20B underscores how sensitive Exxon’s transition efforts are to subsidies, carbon pricing, and customer demand. ^[61]

If policy support or carbon pricing strengthens, these projects could accelerate again; if not, Exxon appears comfortable leaning more heavily on traditional oil and gas plus CCS rather than pure hydrogen plays.

Key risks for Exxon Mobil shareholders

Even with a stronger 2030 plan, XOM is not risk‑free. Key risks include:

Commodity price volatility: The upgraded plan assumes $65 Brent in real terms; materially lower long‑term prices would pressure both earnings and cash‑flow growth. ^[62]
Energy‑transition and climate policy risk:
- More aggressive climate policies could accelerate demand destruction or impose costly regulations.
- On the other hand, policy back‑tracking can also hurt returns on low‑carbon projects, as the hydrogen pause illustrates. ^[63]
Project execution: Large, long‑lived projects in Guyana, the Permian and LNG are complex; cost overruns, delays or geopolitical issues could erode expected returns. ^[64]
Capital allocation: Aggressive buybacks can enhance per‑share returns but may be criticized if executed at cyclical peaks or if they crowd out high‑return investment opportunities. ^[65]

Investors should consider how comfortable they are with these risks relative to the income and growth profile Exxon now offers.

Bottom line: What Exxon’s December 2025 news means for XOM stock

As of December 10, 2025, Exxon Mobil stock sits near $118, just below its 52‑week high, with:

An upgraded 2030 plan targeting $25B in earnings and $35B in cash‑flow growth versus 2024, at constant prices, and ROCE above 17%. ^[66]
A fortified core in the Permian, Guyana and LNG, backed by real progress in Q3 results. ^[67]
A cautious but still sizable low‑carbon strategy, focusing more on CCS and less on near‑term hydrogen megaprojects. ^[68]
A 3%+ dividend yield, 43‑year growth streak, and ongoing $20B/year buyback program that together support a strong income and capital‑return profile. ^[69]
Analyst targets mostly clustered between $127 and $132, suggesting modest upside plus dividends over the next 12 months, if energy markets remain cooperative. ^[70]

Whether XOM is a buy for you will depend on:

Your view on long‑term oil and gas demand and prices.
Your comfort with energy‑transition and policy risk.
How you value steady income and buybacks versus faster‑growing but more volatile alternatives.

References