Exxon Mobil (XOM) Stock: What to Know Before the Market Opens on Dec. 26, 2025

Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM) heads into Friday’s (Dec. 26, 2025) market open with its stock trading near recent highs—but with several fast-moving headlines in the background, from Russia-related legacy assets to a potentially major Iraq deal, plus a fresh long-term growth plan that’s reshaping the company’s investment narrative.

Because U.S. markets were closed on Christmas Day, the most recent trading session for Exxon was the holiday-shortened Dec. 24 session. XOM closed at $119.22 on Dec. 24 with about 6.14 million shares traded—lighter-than-normal activity that can matter when liquidity returns post-holiday. ^[1]

Below is what investors should watch into the open—starting with the stock’s setup, then the most important company-specific developments, oil-market drivers, and where analyst forecasts currently sit.

Where Exxon Mobil stock stands heading into Dec. 26

Latest price action: XOM ended Dec. 24 at $119.22. ^[2]
Recent context: Earlier in the week, Exxon shares closed $119.42 on Dec. 23, and were reported to be roughly 1% below a 52-week high of $120.81 set in November. ^[3]

Why that matters for Friday: With a holiday break in between, the day-after-Christmas session often comes with thinner participation. When fewer traders are active, small news items (or commodity moves) can translate into outsized swings—especially in large, liquid energy names that are tightly linked to crude prices.

Short-term levels traders are watching: Based on recent closes, Exxon’s near-term trading band has included a mid-December dip near ~$114.7 (Dec. 16 close) and a rebound back toward $119–$120 into Christmas Eve. ^[4]
That doesn’t “predict” direction—but it does frame where dip-buyers and profit-takers have recently shown up.

The biggest Exxon Mobil headlines right now

1) Exxon’s new 2030 plan: higher earnings and cash flow targets, buybacks still central

The most market-moving fundamental update in December has been Exxon’s refreshed corporate plan through 2030. Exxon says the updated plan implies:

$25 billion in earnings growth and $35 billion in cash flow growth (vs. 2024 on a constant price/margin basis)
No increase in capital spending to achieve that higher outlook
Structural cost savings plan increased to $20 billion vs. 2019
Expected return on capital employed above 17% in 2030
A plan to repurchase $20 billion of shares in 2025 and maintain that pace through 2026, assuming “reasonable market conditions” ^[5]

This matters for the stock because it reinforces Exxon’s “shareholder return + advantaged barrels” equity story: management is effectively arguing that it can grow output and cash generation while still keeping capital discipline and returning large sums via dividends and buybacks.

Reuters also highlighted that Exxon raised its targets by $5 billion versus its prior plan, while keeping spending guidance intact, and expects upstream production to reach ~5.5 million boepd by 2030, aided by the Permian and Guyana. ^[6]

2) CFO transition: a leadership change investors will parse for capital allocation signals

Another key part of the Dec. 9 update: Exxon said CFO Kathy Mikells will retire effective Feb. 1, with Neil Hansen set to succeed her. ^[7]

For a company where buybacks, dividends, and multi-year capex discipline are central to the thesis, investors will likely listen closely in the next earnings cycle for any nuance on capital allocation priorities during the transition.

3) Russia extends the Sakhalin-1 stake sale deadline—potentially reopening recovery options

On Dec. 24, Reuters reported Russian President Vladimir Putin extended the deadline for the sale of Exxon’s stake in Sakhalin-1 to Jan. 1, 2027. Reuters noted Exxon took a $4.6 billion impairment on its 30% operator stake in April 2022, and that the extension may help Exxon recover losses tied to its Russia exit. ^[8]

This is not a “core growth engine” story for Exxon today—but it’s a meaningful headline because it touches on a lingering overhang from the post-2022 geopolitical rupture, and it could influence investor perceptions around potential recoveries, timing, and uncertainty.

4) Iraq deal chatter: Exxon reportedly in talks to buy into a giant oilfield

Reuters reported on Dec. 2 that Exxon approached Iraq’s oil ministry about potentially buying Lukoil’s majority stake in the West Qurna 2 oilfield—one of the world’s largest, producing around 470,000 barrels per day (about 9% of Iraq’s total output, per Reuters). ^[9]

This is a classic “watch the details” catalyst:

If it advances, markets will focus on deal structure, political risk, and expected returns.
If it stalls, the story may fade quickly—but it still reinforces that Exxon is scanning for large-scale resource positions beyond the U.S. and Guyana.

5) Chemicals reset: Reuters reports Exxon plans to shut an older Singapore steam cracker

In another important December headline, Reuters reported Exxon plans to wind down an older steam cracker on Singapore’s Jurong Island starting March 2026, amid weak petrochemical economics and global overcapacity pressures. ^[10]

For equity holders, this lands as a mixed signal:

It acknowledges industry reality (overcapacity and margin pressure), and rationalization can be value-protective.
But it also underscores that chemicals can be a tougher earnings contributor when the cycle is weak—something investors may price in if the market expects a prolonged downturn.

6) Energy transition economics: Exxon pauses its mega Baytown hydrogen plan

Reuters reported in November that Exxon paused plans for what would have been one of the world’s largest hydrogen production facilities at Baytown, Texas, citing insufficient customer demand and the premium costs of “blue hydrogen” (natural gas + carbon capture). Reuters said Exxon and partners had invested about $500 million so far, with total project costs estimated at “several billion.” ^[11]

The market read-through: Exxon is signaling it won’t build large-scale low-carbon projects without locked-in economics. Depending on the investor, that’s either “discipline” (bullish) or “missed optionality” (bearish).

7) Legal and regulatory risk: Exxon’s lawsuit over California climate disclosure laws

Reuters reported Exxon sued California over climate disclosure laws (SB 253 and SB 261), arguing they violate First Amendment rights and conflict with existing federal securities laws. The reporting requirements in question begin in 2026, per Reuters. ^[12]

This is less likely to move the stock day-to-day than oil prices or earnings—but it’s part of the longer-term risk mosaic investors evaluate around compliance costs, litigation uncertainty, and disclosure obligations.

The oil market backdrop into Friday’s open

Exxon is an integrated major, but crude prices still matter—not just for upstream profits, but also because oil often drives sentiment across the entire energy complex.

Where crude ended the last session

Reuters reported that on Dec. 24:

Brent settled at $62.24 per barrel (down $0.14)
WTI settled at $58.29 per barrel (down $0.03) ^[13]

Reuters also noted both contracts had gained about 6% since Dec. 16, supported by “thin markets” and heightened geopolitical tension, including U.S. pressure on Venezuela and Russia/Ukraine infrastructure-related risks. ^[14]

Geopolitical supply risk: CPC export disruptions

A separate Reuters report highlighted disruptions impacting Kazakhstan’s CPC Blend exports after Ukrainian drone strikes damaged Russian loading infrastructure and weather delayed repairs—cutting December CPC loadings to around 1.14 million bpd versus a planned 1.7 million bpd. Reuters explicitly noted major companies including Exxon Mobil rely on this export route. ^[15]

If crude extends its rebound (or reverses it) in global trading before the U.S. open, Exxon typically responds—sometimes disproportionately when liquidity is thin.

Data to watch: U.S. inventory timing is shifted

Reuters noted the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s official weekly inventory data is due Monday, later than usual, because of the Christmas holiday. ^[16]
That can matter because inventory surprises are one of the most common short-term catalysts for oil—and by extension, for mega-cap energy equities.

Analyst forecasts: what Wall Street expects for XOM

Price targets and ratings

Analyst views are mixed, but broadly lean constructive:

Benzinga reports Exxon has a consensus price target of $129.54 based on 26 analysts, with a high of $158 and low of $105. ^[17]
Fintel’s compilation shows an average one-year price target of $134.86, with forecasts ranging from $110.09 to $165.90. ^[18]

At a ~$119 stock price, those averages imply mid-to-low double-digit upside over a 12-month horizon—but that upside is highly sensitive to crude prices, refining/chemical margins, and whether Exxon delivers on its multi-year volume and cost assumptions.

Next earnings: dates and expectations

Exxon hasn’t (as of the sources above) formally confirmed a Q4 reporting date on all platforms, but multiple calendars estimate late January timing:

MarketBeat estimates Exxon’s next earnings date as Friday, Jan. 30, 2026, based on past schedules. ^[19]
Zacks also flags Jan. 30, 2026 and expects $1.63 EPS for the upcoming release. ^[20]

Also worth noting: Exxon’s investor relations site lists an upcoming “4Q25 Earnings Considerations 8-K” on Wednesday, Jan. 7 (after market hours)—the kind of filing investors often use to gauge commodity and margin impacts heading into results. ^[21]

Dividends and buybacks: the shareholder return engine remains the core narrative

Dividend

In its Q3 2025 results release, Exxon said it declared a fourth-quarter dividend of $1.03 per share (a 4% increase vs. Q3), payable Dec. 10, 2025 to shareholders of record on Nov. 14, 2025—and noted 43 consecutive years of annual dividend-per-share growth. ^[22]

Using the most recent close ($119.22) and annualizing the $1.03 quarterly dividend ($4.12/year), Exxon’s dividend yield is about 3.46% (math based on the figures above). ^[23]

Buybacks

Exxon’s updated 2030 plan reiterates that it remains on track to repurchase $20 billion of shares in 2025 and intends to maintain that pace through 2026, subject to “reasonable market conditions.” ^[24]

For near-term traders, this doesn’t guarantee day-to-day support. For long-horizon investors, it’s a major piece of the “per-share compounding” story—especially when combined with cost savings targets and production growth plans.

Bull case vs. bear case for Exxon Mobil stock into 2026

The bull case: advantaged production + discipline + scale

Supportive arguments investors cite include:

Higher long-term targets without higher capex, plus a plan for $145B cumulative surplus cash flow (at Exxon’s stated planning assumptions) through 2030. ^[25]
Advantaged assets (Permian, Guyana, LNG) expected to be about 65% of volumes by 2030, with Permian targeted around 2.5 million boepd. ^[26]
Operational leverage from technology and cost reductions (Reuters cited Permian cost of supply around $30/bbl, down from prior expectations). ^[27]
Continued emphasis on dividends and buybacks as a core “equity output.”

The bear case: commodity risk, chemicals pressure, and policy/legal uncertainty

Key counterpoints include:

Oil is still the dominant swing factor; Reuters highlighted crude is on course for its steepest annual decline since 2020, even after the late-December bounce. ^[28]
Chemicals face structural headwinds—reinforced by Reuters’ reporting on the Singapore steam cracker shutdown amid overcapacity and weak economics. ^[29]
Energy transition investments are becoming more selective; the Baytown hydrogen pause highlights that some low-carbon pathways may develop slower than optimistic scenarios. ^[30]
Ongoing regulatory and litigation exposure (e.g., California climate disclosure legal battle). ^[31]
Geopolitical complexity (Sakhalin-1 timing, sanctions dynamics, and uncertainty around any recovery). ^[32]

What to watch specifically before the bell on Friday, Dec. 26

Crude prices in overnight trading
Oil is the most immediate external driver for Exxon into the open; Reuters’ latest settlement levels and geopolitical framing are the baseline. ^[33]
Follow-through from the Sakhalin-1 deadline extension
Any incremental details (or broader Russia/Ukraine policy shifts) could move perception—even if the financial impact is hard to model today. ^[34]
Deal headlines around Iraq / West Qurna 2
If there’s fresh reporting, markets will likely react quickly because of the potential scale and the geopolitical overlay. ^[35]
Post-holiday liquidity and volatility
The broader market just came off a holiday-shortened session with notably light participation; the AP reported only 1.8 billion shares traded on the NYSE that day (about a third of average). That type of environment can amplify moves—up or down—on modest catalysts. ^[36]
The next “hard catalyst” dates
Keep Jan. 7 (earnings considerations 8-K) and late January earnings timing on the radar as the next major fundamental checkpoints. ^[37]

Bottom line for Exxon stock into the Dec. 26 open

Exxon Mobil stock is entering Friday’s session near the top of its recent range, with investors balancing two big forces:

A management-driven confidence story (higher 2030 targets, continued buybacks, cost savings, advantaged production growth). ^[38]
A macro and geopolitics-driven reality check (oil price sensitivity, supply headlines, chemicals margin pressure, and ongoing regulatory/litigation noise). ^[39]

If you’re watching XOM into the bell, the cleanest way to frame it is: Does crude extend its rebound, and does the market treat Exxon’s recent strategic updates as “durable cash flow” or as “peak-cycle optimism”? Friday’s post-holiday tape—thin or not—will start to answer that.

This article is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Markets involve risk, and prices can move quickly—especially around commodities and geopolitical news.

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