Ferrari N.V. (RACE) Stock Today: 23‑Month Low, €2 Billion Buyback Almost Done, and What Analysts Expect Next

Ferrari’s stock is having a rough day on December 10, 2025. Despite robust margins, a nearly completed €2 billion buyback, and a long-term growth plan running to 2030, RACE shares have slumped to their lowest level in almost two years as a wave of analyst downgrades collides with an already stretched valuation. ^[1]

This article pulls together the key news, forecasts, and analysis on Ferrari N.V. stock as of 10 December 2025, to give a clear picture of where RACE stands now and what the market is pricing in.

Ferrari stock price on 10 December 2025

As of midday trading on December 10, 2025, Ferrari N.V. (NYSE: RACE) is trading around $375 per share, down roughly 2% on the session and only a few dollars above its 52‑week low near $372. ^[2]

On the Milan listing, shares slid to around €313, a level not seen since January 2024, after renewed analyst downgrades in Europe. ^[3]

According to recent coverage, Ferrari’s stock is now down about 24% year‑to‑date, as earnings expectations have been trimmed and investors reassess how much they are willing to pay for a “luxury compounder” in a higher‑rate world. ^[4]

Why Ferrari shares are under pressure: a week of downgrades

The immediate catalyst for today’s weakness is a cluster of cautious calls from major brokers, especially in Europe.

Oddo BHF: downgrade and F80 concerns

French broker Oddo BHF cut Ferrari from Outperform to Neutral and slashed its euro price target from €430 to €340. ^[5]

Key points from the Oddo note as reported:

They now expect a slower rollout of the F80 hypercar, reducing their 2026 delivery estimate from 250 units to 200.
They see F80 deliveries stretching gradually through end‑2028, implying more muted near‑term contribution from this ultra‑exclusive series. ^[6]
Oddo has cut its 2026 EBIT forecast by about 3.4%, putting it roughly 2.7% below consensus. ^[7]

24/7 Wall St. captured the same downgrade on the U.S. line, noting that Ferrari was cut to Neutral from Buy with a target of about $395.49 on the NYSE listing. ^[8]

Morgan Stanley: volume caps and slower growth

Earlier this week, Morgan Stanley lowered Ferrari from Overweight to Equal Weight, cutting its U.S. price target from $520 to $425. ^[9]

Their thesis, as summarized by Investing.com:

Ferrari’s decision to strictly limit volume growth through 2030 is positive for the brand but caps near‑term upside.
Morgan Stanley sees only about 8% upside from current levels based on its revised target. ^[10]
They expect top‑line growth below 5% over the next three quarters as shipments are constrained by new model timing (including the F80). ^[11]
Concerns about the upcoming EV launch and residual values mean valuation multiples are likely to stay under pressure until visibility improves. ^[12]

In short: Ferrari is deliberately behaving less like a typical automaker and more like a luxury house — but that also means growth is carefully rationed.

Jefferies: price target cut on model ramp‑up costs

On December 9, Jefferies cut its euro price target from €345 to €310, while maintaining a Hold rating. ^[13]

The Jefferies analysis emphasizes:

Ferrari’s shares have fallen about 20% over the past six months, now sitting near their 52‑week low. ^[14]
A heavy cadence of new model introductions in 2026 is expected to temporarily reduce shipments and pressure margins via higher depreciation and amortization. ^[15]
Their 2026 revenue growth forecast (≈6.7%) and EPS estimate (€9.32) now sit below consensus, which expects about 8.2% growth and €10.05 EPS. ^[16]

Jefferies also notes Ferrari’s newly signed €350 million revolving credit facility (more on that below) and references other analyst moves:

UBS lifting its target to $563 with a Buy rating, arguing guidance is still conservative.
Goldman Sachs initiating with a Buy, expecting Ferrari to beat consensus in 2026–27, helped by higher average selling prices. ^[17]

So the street is hardly turning bearish en masse — but the tone has clearly shifted from “unquestioned star” to “prove it at this valuation.”

Fundamentals under the hood: Q3 2025 results and long‑term plan

The recent downgrades are landing on a company that is still executing very well by conventional measures.

Q3 2025: margins still elite, guidance raised

Ferrari’s Q3 2025 numbers, reported on November 4, show a business that remains extremely profitable: ^[18]

Net revenues: €1.766 billion, +7.4% year‑on‑year, with shipments essentially flat at 3,401 units.
EBIT: €503 million (+7.6% YoY) with an EBIT margin of 28.4%.
EBITDA: €670 million, 37.9% EBITDA margin.
Net profit: €382 million, with diluted EPS of €2.14.
Industrial free cash flow: €365 million for the quarter.
Net industrial debt: just €116 million as of September 30, 2025 — effectively a near‑net‑cash industrial balance sheet.

Ferrari used its October Capital Markets Day to raise 2025 guidance, now targeting at least: ^[19]

Net revenues ≥ €7.1 billion
Adjusted EBITDA ≥ €2.72 billion
Adjusted EBIT ≥ €2.06 billion
Adjusted diluted EPS ≥ €8.80
Industrial free cash flow ≥ €1.30 billion

The Q3 earnings call also reiterated 2030 targets of about €9 billion in revenues, a 40% EBITDA margin, and a 30% EBIT margin, with a powertrain mix of roughly 40% internal combustion, 40% hybrid, 20% electric. ^[20]

The only real blemish in the quarter was that Ferrari missed consensus forecasts:

Q3 EPS of $2.14 versus expectations around $2.41.
Revenue of about $1.77 billion versus estimates near $1.98 billion. ^[21]

Yet the stock rose in pre‑market trading after the release, as investors focused on the upgraded guidance and long‑term plan rather than the shortfall.

Capital allocation: €2 billion buyback nearly complete, plus a cheaper credit line

While the share price slides, Ferrari is quietly hoovering up its own stock and bolstering financial flexibility.

Massive share buyback: already ~€2 billion spent

Ferrari launched a multi‑year buyback program in 2022 with a target of around €2 billion by 2026. Recent filings show that the company is almost at the finish line: ^[22]

From July 1, 2022 through December 8, 2025, Ferrari has repurchased about 5.97 million shares for a total of roughly €1.998 billion.
As of December 8, 2025, the company holds around 16.63 million treasury shares, equal to 8.58% of issued common shares (or 9.06% including special voting shares).
A FAQ in the latest buyback update notes that only about €2.29 million remains to hit the full €2 billion target — essentially rounding error at Ferrari’s scale.

TipRanks reported that on December 9, 2025, Ferrari formally completed the eighth tranche of the buyback program, investing almost €280 million and around $87 million in shares across Euronext Milan and the NYSE. ^[23]

The net effect:

Free float is shrinking (float is around 130.6 million shares),
Short interest is low (~1.46%), and
Ownership is split roughly 30.5% insiders / 41.8% institutions. ^[24]

In other words, Ferrari is both supporting the stock and making each remaining share a scarcer asset — which is very on‑brand.

New €350 million revolving credit facility at a lower cost

On December 3, 2025, Ferrari announced a new €350 million unsecured committed revolving credit facility with a syndicate of 12 banks. ^[25]

Key details:

Five‑year tenor, with two additional one‑year extension options, subject to bank approval.
The facility replaces an existing €350 million RCF due in December 2026, which has now been cancelled.
Ferrari states that the new RCF provides a lower cost of capital and will be used for general corporate and working capital purposes. ^[26]

Given Ferrari’s modest industrial net debt and strong free cash flow, the new RCF is more about liquidity back‑up and optionality than plugging any balance‑sheet hole.

Brand power: renewed Philip Morris deal and other partnerships

Beyond the financials, Ferrari continues to reinforce its brand ecosystem.

On December 3, 2025, Ferrari renewed and strengthened its decades‑long partnership with Philip Morris International. The new agreement, effective January 1, 2026, designates Philip Morris as a Premium Partner of Scuderia Ferrari HP and a Series Partner of the Ferrari Challenge Trofeo Pirelli. ^[27]

Together with a recently announced multi‑year partnership with crypto exchange BingX as a Team Partner of Scuderia Ferrari HP from 2026, the company is clearly still leaning on motorsport and lifestyle tie‑ups to keep the brand at the top of the ultra‑luxury pyramid. ^[28]

Valuation check: luxury multiple or excessive premium?

Ferrari has long traded at a premium to the automotive sector, and 2025 is no exception.

A recent valuation deep‑dive by Simply Wall St highlights just how stretched the stock looks on traditional metrics: ^[29]

Ferrari’s trailing P/E is around 36x, almost double both the auto industry average (roughly 18–19x) and a broader global auto peer group.
Their internal “Fair Ratio” framework suggests a more appropriate P/E multiple near 17x based on Ferrari’s growth, margins, and risk profile.
A discounted cash flow (DCF) model using projected free cash flows produces an estimated intrinsic value around $103 per share, implying the current price is roughly 264% above that DCF fair value.

The conclusion of that analysis is blunt: Ferrari looks overvalued on both DCF and P/E relative to peers, even after the recent pullback. ^[30]

However, this is where the Ferrari debate really starts. DCF models treat Ferrari like a “very good company with a high but finite growth rate.” Many bullish analysts argue that the market instead is pricing Ferrari as:

A luxury brand closer to Hermès than to BMW,
With decades of high‑margin demand visibility,
And a management team that tends to guide conservatively and over‑deliver on margins — a point some Seeking Alpha authors have emphasized, noting that Ferrari’s EBIT margin across the first three quarters of 2025 is already close to 30% against a 29% full‑year target. ^[31]

The current sell‑off is essentially the market arguing about just how expensive a brand like this “should” be.

Analyst forecasts and price targets for RACE stock

Despite the recent downgrades, the overall analyst backdrop is still notably constructive.

MarketBeat: “Buy” with ~31% upside

According to MarketBeat’s consolidated forecast page for Ferrari: ^[32]

16 Wall Street analysts have rated RACE over the past 12 months.
The consensus rating is “Buy”:
- 3 analysts: Strong Buy
- 10 analysts: Buy
- 3 analysts: Hold
The average 12‑month price target is $489.47, implying about 30.5% upside from a reference price of $375.06.
The target range runs from $420 at the low end to $570 at the high end.

The MarketBeat instant‑alert note on Qube Research & Technologies’ Q2 share sale also reiterates this consensus and average target, underscoring that institutional sentiment remains broadly positive even as some funds trim positions. ^[33]

StockAnalysis: “Strong Buy” and steady growth expectations

Forecast data compiled by StockAnalysis.com paints a similar picture, but with slightly different emphasis: ^[34]

Consensus rating: “Strong Buy”, indicating expectations of outperformance.
Average price target: $483, about 29% upside from recent levels, with a range of $454–$554.
Revenue forecasts:
- 2024: €6.68 billion
- 2025: €7.28 billion (+9.0% YoY)
- 2026: €7.83 billion (+7.7% YoY)
EPS forecasts:
- 2024: €8.46
- 2025: €9.12 (+7.8% YoY)
- 2026: €10.12 (+11.0% YoY)

In other words, the average analyst still expects high‑single‑digit to low‑double‑digit annual growth in revenue and earnings through at least 2026, with structurally high margins.

Diverging narratives: overvalued icon vs long‑term compounder

Put all of this together, and two competing stories emerge around Ferrari stock:

The cautious view

Valuation is rich: 36x earnings and a DCF value far below the current price, even after a 24% year‑to‑date decline. ^[35]
Near‑term growth is moderating due to deliberate volume caps, F80 launch timing, and the complexities of ramping new models in a high‑cost environment. ^[36]
Electric‑vehicle transition risk: Analysts like Morgan Stanley highlight uncertainty around residual values and demand for Ferrari’s future EVs, which may cap multiples until there is real‑world evidence. ^[37]

From this angle, Ferrari looks like a phenomenal business that may simply be too expensive, and the pullback is a long‑overdue de‑rating.

The bullish view

Margins and cash flow remain exceptional, with EBIT near 30% and EBITDA margins close to 38%, plus a raised guidance profile for 2025 and ambitious 2030 targets. ^[38]
Ferrari is buying back nearly 9% of its own shares, reducing float and amplifying per‑share metrics, all while carrying very modest industrial leverage. ^[39]
The brand continues to deepen high‑visibility partnerships (Philip Morris, BingX) and broaden its ultra‑luxury lineup, reinforcing scarcity and pricing power. ^[40]
Many analysts still see 20–40% upside over 12 months, even after recent target cuts. ^[41]

From this perspective, the recent sell‑off is less an indictment of the business and more an opportunity for investors who believe Ferrari can justify a luxury‐brand multiple rather than an auto‑maker multiple.

Key things to watch in 2026 and beyond

Looking past today’s price action, several themes are likely to shape how RACE trades over the next 12–24 months:

F80 rollout and ultra‑luxury mix
Execution on the F80 timetable — and how quickly it moves from order book to deliveries without diluting exclusivity — will be closely watched, especially given Oddo’s reduced volume assumptions. ^[42]
Electrification milestones
Investors will look for concrete progress on Ferrari’s first fully electric models, and whether EV demand can sustain the brand’s current pricing and margin profile out to 2030. ^[43]
After the buyback
With the €2 billion repurchase program essentially complete, the market will want clarity on whether Ferrari extends or renews buybacks, pivots more capital to capex for EVs, or increases dividends. ^[44]
Macro and luxury demand
Ferrari has proven relatively resilient to economic cycles, but spending at the ultra‑high‑net‑worth level is not completely immune to interest rates, geopolitics, or equity‑market wealth effects.

Bottom line: Ferrari is cheaper than it was, but not “cheap”

As of December 10, 2025, Ferrari N.V. sits at a fascinating crossroads:

The stock price has reset, dropping to a 23‑month low and wiping out much of the froth that built up in 2023–2024. ^[45]
The business remains extremely profitable, with raised guidance, strong cash generation, and a nearly net‑cash industrial balance sheet. ^[46]
Capital allocation is shareholder‑friendly, with a €2 billion buyback almost complete and a cheaper credit facility in place. ^[47]
Analysts are split between valuation caution and brand‑driven optimism, but the consensus still skews clearly positive with high‑single‑digit earnings growth and double‑digit upside priced into most models. ^[48]

Whether RACE at ~$375 is a buyable pullback or still an overpriced icon ultimately depends on how much of a premium an investor is willing to pay for Ferrari’s unique mix of scarcity, brand power, and disciplined volume strategy.

References

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