NEW YORK — As of 12:34 a.m. ET on Saturday, December 27, 2025, U.S. stock markets are closed and will not reopen until the next regular session on Monday, December 29.
Firefly Aerospace Inc. (NASDAQ: FLY) is heading into that next session after a sharp end-of-week selloff. FLY closed Friday, Dec. 26 at $23.34, down 13.68% on the day, with after-hours trading near $23.33. [1]
That move landed in a broader market context that was notably “thin” and catalyst-light: the S&P 500 slipped 0.03% on Friday to 6,929.94, with holiday-shortened volume and investors watching the seasonal “Santa Claus rally” window into early January. [2]
So what is going on with Firefly stock specifically—and what should investors know before the next bell?
The setup: a volatile new public space-and-defense stock meets year-end markets
Firefly is still in its “newly public, price-discovery” era. The company priced its IPO at $45 per share in August 2025 and opened trading well above that level. [3]
Today, the stock is far below the IPO price, while still swinging aggressively on headlines, program milestones, and sentiment around the wider space economy. On Friday, those swings intensified—in a market environment where light liquidity can magnify moves.
Reuters’ week-ahead framing helps explain the backdrop: stocks remain near records, but traders are bracing for potential volatility from year-end rebalancing and fresh macro signals, including minutes from the Federal Reserve’s December 9–10 meeting due Tuesday. [4]
Michael Reynolds of Glenmede told Reuters the minutes could be “illuminating” for how markets handicap rate cuts in 2026—an important point for high-beta, long-duration growth names like early-stage aerospace firms. [5]
What happened to FLY on Friday? What we can say (and what we can’t)
On the data, Friday was unambiguous: a steep one-day drop in FLY with a wide trading range and heavy volatility. [6]
On the “why,” investors should be cautious about single-cause explanations. Late-December trading can mix together:
- profit-taking after prior rallies (especially in thematic sectors),
- index and fund rebalancing flows,
- and headline sensitivity (space policy, launch cadence, litigation, and defense-contract narratives).
One widely circulated theme across space equities in late December has been renewed optimism tied to U.S. space policy direction—particularly following the White House’s December 18 executive order on “Ensuring American Space Superiority.” [7]
But Firefly-specific risks have also stayed front-and-center—especially launch reliability and the reality of heavy losses while scaling production.
The most important Firefly Aerospace news investors are tracking right now
1) Russell 2000 inclusion: potential liquidity and “forced” flows
Firefly announced it joined the Russell 2000 and Russell 3000 indexes on December 22—a development that can matter for liquidity, institutional visibility, and index-tracking demand. [8]
In plain English: some funds buy because the index says so, not because they woke up feeling poetic about rockets.
2) Blue Ghost Mission 2: new commercial payload deal tied to lunar infrastructure
On December 10, Firefly announced a commercial payload agreement with Volta Space Technologies to fly a wireless power receiver (“LightPort”) on Blue Ghost Mission 2—positioning the mission not only as science/CLPS delivery, but also as a testbed for lunar “utility” concepts like power distribution. [9]
Firefly CEO Jason Kim framed the mission as enabling “critical technology demonstrations” for longer-term lunar operations, while Volta CEO Justin Zipkin emphasized proving the receiver “in a real lunar environment.” [10]
Firefly also said Mission 2 will carry payloads including NASA’s LuSEE-Night and ESA’s Lunar Pathfinder, and that its Elytra Dark vehicle is expected to operate in lunar orbit for years after deployment—supporting imaging and cislunar awareness. [11]
3) Operations leadership: a new COO focused on scaling and reliability
On December 11, Firefly announced Ramon Sanchez will become Chief Operating Officer (effective Dec. 22), with oversight of day-to-day operations and a mandate to strengthen “safety, quality, and reliability” while scaling production. [12]
This matters because Firefly’s story is increasingly a manufacturing story—not just an engineering story.
4) Big defense expansion: SciTec acquisition and “Golden Dome” positioning
Firefly’s push deeper into defense tech has been one of its most market-moving strategic arcs since the IPO.
- Reuters reported in October that Firefly agreed to buy national security tech firm SciTec for about $855 million, funded with $300 million in cash and $555 million in Firefly shares. [13]
- Firefly’s own announcement described SciTec’s software and data capabilities as additive to missile warning/tracking and other defense analytics, explicitly name-checking “Golden Dome.” [14]
- In its Q3 update, Firefly stated the SciTec acquisition closed and referenced an upsized revolving credit facility supporting the transaction. [15]
Investors generally like the idea of recurring defense software revenue. They like it even more if it arrives without constant equity dilution or execution stumbles.
5) NASA lunar contract visibility: Blue Ghost Mission 4 is a real, priced award
Reuters reported that Firefly won a $176.7 million NASA CLPS contract to deliver payloads to the Moon’s south pole in 2029 (Blue Ghost Mission 4), using its lander and Elytra vehicle. [16]
That kind of contract award is the “fundamental gravity” under the stock’s longer-term bull case—multi-year mission work with a credible customer.
The risk side of the ledger: losses, launch reliability, and litigation overhang
Firefly is growing—but burning cash while it scales
In its third-quarter 2025 report, Firefly said revenue grew sharply (including sequential growth), but it also discussed ongoing efforts to rebuild launch readiness and highlighted multiple program investments. [17]
A separate Nasdaq-hosted analysis of those results underscored the tension investors keep wrestling with: strong sales momentum and raised outlook, but rapidly rising expenses and widening losses—including a reported net loss of $133.4 million for the quarter. [18]
Launch reliability remains a headline-sensitive risk
Reuters reported that on April 29, Firefly’s Alpha rocket suffered a technical issue on its sixth flight, and that four of six Alpha flights have failed since 2021. [19]
Reuters later reported Firefly received FAA clearance to resume Alpha launches after the investigation, and the company was working toward identifying the next launch window (Alpha Flight 7). [20]
Firefly’s Q3 release also referenced a September 29 ground test event and indicated planning for an Alpha Flight 7 window around the end of Q4 into early Q1. [21]
In aerospace, “return to flight” timelines are where optimism goes to wrestle with physics.
Securities class action: what’s publicly circulating
Multiple notices and filings circulating in late 2025 indicate a securities class action was filed related to Firefly’s IPO and early trading period. A complaint titled Diamond v. Firefly Aerospace Inc. et al. (U.S. District Court, Western District of Texas) is identified with Case No. 1:25-cv-01812. [22]
Press-release distributions from law firms have highlighted a lead plaintiff deadline of January 12, 2026. [23]
Important nuance: these are allegations, not findings. But litigation headlines can still affect sentiment, especially for a newly public company whose share price has been volatile.
Wall Street forecasts and price targets: what analysts are modeling
Because Firefly is newly public and still scaling, forecasts tend to cluster around growth assumptions, contract conversion, and eventual margin improvement—rather than near-term earnings power.
Two widely referenced consensus snapshots show substantial implied upside from Friday’s close:
- StockAnalysis lists an average price target around $40.38 with a “Buy” consensus (as presented on its aggregation page). [24]
- MarketBeat lists a consensus view described as “Moderate Buy,” with a consensus price target around $38.43. [25]
Treat price targets like weather forecasts for a rocket launch: useful context, not a promise.
If you’re holding (or watching) Firefly stock: what to know before Monday’s session
Because it’s Saturday, you can’t trade regular hours right now. The next real decision-point is Monday’s opening auction and early liquidity.
Here’s what tends to matter most for a name like FLY going into the next session:
1) Expect year-end “thin tape” behavior
Reuters described Friday’s session as light-volume and nearly catalyst-free, a setup where individual stocks can gap or drop more than usual. [26]
2) Macro catalysts are queued up, not finished
The Fed minutes arrive Tuesday, and rate expectations are a major input into risk appetite—particularly for speculative growth equities. [27]
3) Watch for weekend headlines in three buckets
- Program execution: any update on Alpha Flight 7 scheduling, testing milestones, or payload/customer announcements.
- Defense positioning: anything incremental on SciTec integration, contract momentum, or funding narratives tied to national missile defense.
- Legal/filing updates: new SEC filings or further case developments (even procedural ones) can move sentiment quickly.
4) Know what kind of stock you’re dealing with
Firefly is not trading like a sleepy industrial. It’s trading like a company trying to do three hard things at once: build rockets, build lunar logistics, and build a defense-software footprint—while meeting public-market expectations quarter by quarter. [28]
Bottom line
Firefly Aerospace stock is entering the final week of 2025 with big-contract credibility (NASA CLPS, lunar missions) and ambitious defense expansion, but also with sharp volatility, an operational track record investors scrutinize closely, and a litigation overhang that can keep sentiment jumpy. [29]
Monday’s session may be less about “new fundamentals” and more about how year-end positioning, liquidity, and headline risk interact after a dramatic Friday drop—especially with the S&P 500 hovering near a psychologically important milestone (7,000) and policy/rate signals still in play. [30]
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. stockanalysis.com, 7. www.whitehouse.gov, 8. www.globenewswire.com, 9. www.globenewswire.com, 10. www.globenewswire.com, 11. www.globenewswire.com, 12. www.globenewswire.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. fireflyspace.com, 15. www.globenewswire.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.globenewswire.com, 18. www.nasdaq.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.globenewswire.com, 22. www.ktmc.com, 23. www.prnewswire.com, 24. stockanalysis.com, 25. www.marketbeat.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.globenewswire.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.reuters.com
