NEW YORK, March 19, 2026, 10:42 AM EDT
- Ford slipped roughly 2.2% to $11.53 in New York morning action. GM eased by under 1%, while Tesla dropped around 3.1%.
- Brent crude steadied close to $112 a barrel, having earlier pushed past $118 overnight—putting fresh pressure on the prospects for rate cuts and casting a shadow over broader equities.
- Ford is staring down roughly $2 billion in tariff expenses for 2026, while Novelis isn’t projected to bring full aluminum production back online before sometime between May and September.
Ford Motor shares dropped 2.2% to $11.53 during Thursday morning trading in New York, weighed down by rising oil prices and a weaker mood across Wall Street that hit automakers broadly. GM slipped under 1%. Tesla lost around 3.1%.
This shift is hitting Ford’s bottom line right now. Just last month, the automaker forecast 2026 EBIT—earnings before interest and taxes—between $8 billion and $10 billion, factoring in roughly $2 billion in tariff expenses. Most of that’s linked to aluminum, a key input for its money-spinner, the F-150 pickup.
The supply crunch hasn’t eased yet. Novelis, Ford’s main aluminum supplier, still isn’t projected to hit full production until sometime between May and September. On Wednesday, Chief Operating Officer Kumar Galhotra confirmed the plant’s timeline hasn’t budged.
Galhotra noted the Iran war hasn’t disrupted Ford’s supply chain so far, adding it’s still early to tell if U.S. consumer demand is shifting. For investors, the question now is whether this newest fuel shock amounts to background noise or signals a wider pinch on expenses and sales.
Wall Street’s nerves showed. Brent crude stuck close to $112 a barrel, having topped $118 overnight. Dennis Follmer at Montis Financial called oil “driving not just stock prices, but Federal Reserve policy”—a reminder for investors bracing for the possibility of higher-for-longer borrowing costs. Reuters
GM is sounding a bit more upbeat. CFO Paul Jacobson said, “Usually it takes four to six months” of persistently high oil prices before customers rethink their buying decisions. For now, he noted, higher gasoline prices haven’t dented GM sales. Reuters
The lag can play both for and against Ford. According to Kevin Roberts, who heads economic and market intelligence at CarGurus, consumers jump quickly at changes in gas prices, and “$4 (per gallon) threshold may be the one to watch.” Still, CarGurus hasn’t picked up any significant increase in electric-vehicle searches yet. Reuters
There’s at least some cushion for Ford if fuel prices remain elevated: hybrids. Back in January, the automaker reported a jump of nearly 22% in U.S. hybrid sales for 2025. Maverick sales? Up roughly 18%. Andrew Frick pointed to the compact pickup’s “big impact” on affordability. Reuters
There’s a tougher angle here. Stephanie Valdez-Streaty at Cox Automotive points out that higher fuel costs could drag down U.S. vehicle sales, piling onto concerns about tariffs, inflation, and the broader economy. Ford has its own problems: it leads the industry in recalls and just this month announced a 1.74 million-vehicle U.S. recall. On top of that, the company is headed for a March 31 NTSB hearing focused on two deadly crashes involving its BlueCruise hands-free driving tech.
Investors are holding back, looking for signs that steeper fuel prices won’t sap demand—and that Ford has enough room to withstand tariff and aluminum cost pressures without sacrificing more profit.
