Ford Stock Rallies: EV Innovation and UAW Talks Fuel Bullish Outlook

Ford Stock Surges After Q3 Beat – But $1B Supply Shock and EV Slump Linger

24 October 2025

Stock Price (Oct 24, 2025): Ford (NYSE: F) traded around $15 per share on Oct. 24, roughly flat on the day and week. The stock is up about 6.4% year-to-date (through mid-2025), outperforming the S&P 500’s -4% decline ^[1]. (Chart: see financial sites like Yahoo Finance or TradingView.)
Q2 2025 Results: In Q2 2025 (reported July 2025), Ford’s revenue was $50.2 billion (+5% YoY) with an adjusted EBIT of ~$2.1 billion ^[2]. However, a $36 million GAAP loss was booked (due to a large recall and EV program cancellation) ^[3]. Management reinstated full-year guidance (adjusted EBIT ~$6.5–7.5 billion), reflecting cost controls and higher priced trucks.
EV Division: Ford’s EV push remains costly. The Model e unit lost $849 million of EBIT on ~$1.2 billion in sales in Q1 2025 (with a projected ~$5 billion loss for 2025) ^[4]. Even the Mustang Mach‑E “continues to lose money” ^[5], according to industry reports. Ford has pledged $50 billion+ into U.S. facilities (e.g. BlueOval City) to scale EV production ^[6], but high costs have pressured margins.
Tariffs & Labor: New U.S. auto tariffs loom. Ford warned President Trump’s 25% import levies could cut roughly $2.5 billion of 2025 profit ^[7]. (By contrast, GM projects a $4–5 billion hit ^[8].) Ford’s heavy U.S. assembly (≈79% of U.S. sales, versus ~53% at GM) is seen as a competitive edge ^[9] amid these pressures. Meanwhile, recent UAW negotiations (after the 2023 strikes) have led to a new labor contract, easing near-term work stoppage risk (raising costs but stabilizing production).
Analyst & Technical Outlook: Wall Street sentiment is cautiously optimistic. Barclays analysts note Ford’s U.S. footprint (“Investors have preferred Ford over GM…79% of U.S. sales assembled in the U.S.”) as a key advantage ^[10]. Technical forecasts see Ford trading within a $8.60–$13.00 range (2022–2025). One forecast expects a push toward the upper $13 level – and even up to ~$19.90 – if vehicle sales grow and recall issues fade ^[11]. (A drop below ~$10.60 could re-test the 2018 lows around $8.60 ^[12].)

Earnings and Financials

Ford’s recent earnings have been mixed. Q2 2025 results (July report) showed record revenue of $50.2 billion (+5% year-over-year), driven by strong truck sales ^[13]. However, profitability remains under strain. A one-time $570 million recall charge (fuel pump issue) and cancellation of a low-volume EV program pushed Ford to a small GAAP net loss ($36 million) in Q2 ^[14], despite an adjusted operating profit of ~$2.1 billion ^[15]. Ford affirmed a modest dividend ($0.15/share) and guided FY2025 EBIT to roughly $6.5–7.5 billion ^[16].

Year-to-date, Ford’s stock performance has modestly outpaced the market. As of early Q2, Ford shares were up ~6.4% in 2025 ^[17], compared to a 4% decline in the S&P 500. That resilience partly reflects the company’s cost-cutting (over $1 billion in fixed-cost reductions planned) and improving vehicle quality, which has cut warranty expenses and boosted results ^[18]. The recent stable results in the commercial-vehicle unit (Ford Pro) have also supported profits ^[19].

Key Takeaway:

Investors are watching whether Ford can translate its revenue growth into sustained profits. The recent earnings suggest the bottom line is lagging, but cost cuts and strong truck demand have provided a cushion ^[20] ^[21]. Analysts emphasize that 2025 earnings will hinge on tariffs, recalls, and the ramp-up of EV models (see below).

Electric Vehicle Strategy and Products

Ford has aggressively expanded its EV lineup but is still chasing scale. Flagship models like the Mustang Mach‑E (built in Mexico) have “continued to lose money” ^[22], as Ford discounts aggressively to compete. In Q1 2025, the Model e division (all-electric lineup) reported $1.2 billion in revenue but an $849 million EBIT loss ^[23]. That was on top of a $1.3 billion loss in Q1 2024, signaling persistent red ink. (Ford warns Q1 was likely the unit’s best quarter of 2025 ^[24].) With a projected ~$5 billion EV loss in 2025, profitability hinges on scaling production and reducing battery costs.

Ford’s next EV launches include new electric trucks and SUVs due later in 2025. The 2025 F-150 Lightning recently added a “Flash” performance model, and an electric Explorer SUV was unveiled in mid-2025 (for 2026 delivery). Ford is also building huge battery plants (e.g. Kentucky “BlueOval City” and Tennessee “BlueOval Battery Park”), reflecting over $50 billion invested in U.S. factories since 2020 ^[25]. The company argues its heavy domestic production gives it a long-term edge, even if near-term EV losses pressure margins.

Labor and Tariffs

Tariff headwinds: In mid-2025 Ford suspended its annual guidance over uncertainty from new U.S. tariffs ^[26]. The administration’s 25% levies on imports from Mexico and Canada would cost Ford about $2.5 billion in gross profit (roughly $1.5 billion net) if enacted ^[27]. General Motors estimates a larger $4–5 billion hit under the same tariffs ^[28]. Ford has sought workarounds (e.g. shipping some Mexico-built trucks through Canada) to trim the impact ^[29]. Crucially, Ford’s 79% U.S.-built sales mix is far higher than GM’s 53% ^[30], giving Ford greater insulation (Barclays notes this advantage explicitly ^[31]). Nevertheless, any permanent tariff regime would raise steel/aluminum and parts costs, squeezing the famously thin margins on its best-selling trucks ^[32] ^[33].

Labor costs: After the major UAW strikes of 2023, Ford and the union negotiated a new labor contract covering 2024–2028. That deal granted workers substantial pay raises (eventually reaching ~$40/hour) and profit-sharing but also obligated Ford to invest in new electric-model plants. The outcome provided near-term stability (no active strikes at present), but it means higher fixed labor costs. Analysts are watching how Ford offsets that – likely through productivity gains and price increases on trucks – as they forecast Ford’s profitability in the coming years.

Analyst Commentary and Technical Outlook

Wall Street analysts are mixed on Ford. Most are cautious, citing the heavy EV losses and tariff risks. However, some have turned slightly more positive on the stock’s valuation and near-term momentum. Barclays analysts, for example, emphasize Ford’s U.S. leverage: “Investors have preferred Ford over GM, given Ford has a much higher mix of U.S. sales that are assembled in the U.S.” ^[34]. This underscores the belief that Ford can dodge some tariff pain compared to rivals. In addition, Ford’s cost-cutting and better quality rankings (J.D. Power’s initial quality survey improved the most among automakers) are cited as pluses ^[35].

Technically, Ford has traded sideways in a roughly $8.60–$13.00 range since 2022 ^[36]. According to one market analysis, the stock recently broke above that range (a 35% rise from April to August 2025) and could target the $13 ceiling again ^[37]. If it decisively clears $13, the next chart resistance could be around $19.90 ^[38] – though that assumes continued sales growth and fewer recalls. Conversely, a slip below about $10.60 could trigger a drop back toward the bottom of the range (~$8.60) ^[39]. In the shorter term, analysts expect Ford to hold roughly a 50–60 price range, with incremental moves tied to earnings beats/misses and industry news.

Broader Auto Sector Context

In the wider auto market, Ford is often contrasted with Tesla, GM, and Stellantis. Tesla (Nasdaq: TSLA) remains far larger in market cap and consistently profitable (helped by software/credit revenue), so investors sometimes treat Ford as a value play on EV adoption rather than a pure EV leader. GM and Stellantis also face tariff and union costs, so auto-sector news tends to move their stocks in tandem. Notably, GM’s stock has lagged Ford’s in 2025, partly because GM is more exposed to the Mexico tariffs ^[40].

Meanwhile, global EV demand continues to rise. New competitors like Rivian (NASDAQ: RIVN) and Lucid (NASDAQ: LCID) are also investing heavily, but Ford’s scale in pickups and SUVs – plus a full lineup of hybrids – keeps it in a strong position for now. “The auto industry is at a turning point,” says one market strategist, noting that Ford’s mix of ICE and electric vehicles could help smooth the transition. Ford’s future stock performance will likely hinge on how quickly its EV costs come down and how resilient overall auto demand stays in an economy facing higher interest rates and international trade frictions.

Analyst forecasts: Consensus price targets for Ford are modestly above current levels, reflecting both hope for EV improvements and caution on tariffs. Some analysts see mid-term upside if Ford’s Model e can narrow losses and if the U.S. avoids crippling tariffs. In fact, technical analysts believe the stock is positioned for a potential breakout: a move past $13 could indicate further rally, while support around $10–$11 appears key in the near term ^[41].

Sources: Ford’s financial filings and SEC reports; Reuters and Automotive Press releases ^[42] ^[43]; analyst commentary from Barclays ^[44] and RoboForex technical analysis ^[45]; auto industry coverage (WardsAuto, Automotive News) ^[46] ^[47]. (For up-to-the-minute charts, see Yahoo Finance or Google Finance: Ford Motor Co (NYSE: F).)

Former Ford CEO: EV market didn't develop the way automakers thought

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Marcin Frąckiewicz Latest posts

CEO of TS2 Space and founder of TS2.tech. Expert in satellites, telecommunications, and emerging technologies, covering trends in space, AI, and connectivity.

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