New York, February 3, 2026, 10:48 EST — Regular session
- Ford shares climbed roughly 1.5% in early trading, following the broader rise in U.S. auto stocks.
- Investors are bracing for a longer aluminum supply disruption while the U.S. expands its safety investigation into older F-150 pickups.
- Next week’s earnings will serve as the immediate trigger for revised outlooks and fresh supply-chain insights.
Ford shares gained roughly 1.5%, hitting $14.02 in early trading Tuesday. Investors shrugged off new concerns over supply and safety, focusing instead on next week’s earnings for clearer insights.
Timing is key. Ford is set to release its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results next week, with investors eager to see if issues like truck production limits and rising warranty costs hint at bigger problems ahead.
Two overhangs loom: a major aluminum supplier remains partially shuttered after a fire, and a U.S. auto safety regulator is intensifying its focus on transmission issues in older F-150 trucks. Neither development is fresh, yet their timing just before earnings adds pressure.
A fire at Novelis’ Oswego County plant last September disrupted aluminum supplies for Ford’s profitable pickup trucks, and production hasn’t fully bounced back, according to two sources. After the blaze, Ford slashed its 2025 profit outlook, warning it might lose output of as many as 100,000 F-Series trucks through year-end 2025, with costs hitting $2 billion—though some of that could be offset by mitigation efforts. A Ford spokesperson said the company will provide an update when it reports earnings on Feb. 10. Novelis, meanwhile, referred to previous remarks about relying on alternative suppliers to ease the impact.
On Monday, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration widened its probe into 1.27 million Ford F-150 pickups from 2015 to 2017, following reports of unexpected downshifts. Some drivers experienced brief rear-wheel lockup or skidding during these incidents. The agency has now launched an engineering analysis, a more in-depth phase, after preliminary tests suggested a risk that a vehicle reversing uphill might shift into neutral and roll forward due to intermittent signal loss. Ford told regulators this issue is distinct from earlier problems that led to recalls on older models.
Ford flagged shareholder returns this week. The automaker’s board declared a regular quarterly dividend of 15 cents per share, set for payment on March 2 to shareholders recorded by Feb. 13.
Shares of rival U.S. automakers followed suit, with General Motors and Stellantis climbing on the day. Tesla’s stock also inched upward.
Risks run the other way if either problem intensifies. A prolonged aluminum shortage could squeeze the most lucrative part of Ford’s lineup just as it’s trying to defend margins. Meanwhile, an expanded safety investigation might escalate into a recall, dragging repair bills, rising warranty claims, and negative headlines in its wake.
Investors will be watching closely to see how Ford addresses sourcing and production flexibility. Key points include whether it can maintain steady truck production amid ongoing supplier repairs and if any safety-related fixes will impact near-term cash flow.
Ford’s next major event comes on February 10, with its earnings report. The company will address supply chain issues, impacts on early 2026 production, and its financial plans for possible warranty and recall costs.
