Sydney/Perth — 18 December 2025 — Fortescue Ltd (ASX:FMG) shares were modestly higher on Thursday as Australia’s big miners tracked a firmer iron ore market, while investors continued to digest a fresh push into copper and a steady drumbeat of decarbonisation-focused projects. [1]
In afternoon trade, IG’s ASX 200 report had Fortescue up 0.27% to A$22.51, alongside gains for larger peers, with iron ore prices up 0.48% to $104.15 in the Asian session. [2] That places the stock close to its recent highs after a strong 2025 run, even as many sell-side forecasts still cluster below the current share price. [3]
Below is what’s moving Fortescue stock right now, what the latest announcements mean, and how analyst forecasts stack up as of 18.12.2025.
Fortescue share price today: what the market is saying on 18 December 2025
Thursday’s price action looked more like “macro tide lifts boats” than a single Fortescue-specific headline. Miners moved with iron ore, and Fortescue’s incremental gain tracked the sector’s tone rather than breaking away from it. [4]
Data services also show Fortescue sitting around the mid‑A$22 range on 18 December, after a year in which the stock has significantly outperformed its own 2024 lows. [5] (As always with intraday quotes: different platforms timestamp differently, so treat point-in-time prices as a snapshot, not a permanent truth.)
The biggest Fortescue news this week: the Alta Copper acquisition
Fortescue moves deeper into copper (and explains why)
The headline corporate catalyst is Fortescue’s agreement to acquire the remaining stake it doesn’t already own in Alta Copper Corp—a deal that adds a sizeable, early-stage copper project in Peru to Fortescue’s portfolio. [6]
Key terms Fortescue disclosed:
- Fortescue proposes to acquire the remaining 64% of Alta Copper via a Canadian plan of arrangement. [7]
- Consideration: C$1.40 per share in cash, implying a total equity value of C$139 million for Alta. [8]
- Timeline: Alta’s shareholder meeting is expected in January 2026, and Fortescue targets closing in the March quarter of 2026 (subject to approvals and conditions). [9]
Fortescue framed the acquisition as consistent with its critical minerals strategy, explicitly calling out copper portfolio expansion and exploration footprint growth. [10]
What Fortescue is buying: the Cañariaco copper project in Peru
Alta Copper’s main asset is the Cañariaco Copper Project in northern Peru. Fortescue’s ASX release describes:
- The project area (~91 square kilometres) and deposits/prospects (including Cañariaco Norte and Cañariaco Sur). [11]
- A reported mineral resource of 1.1 billion tonnes at 0.42% copper equivalent (Measured & Indicated) plus 0.9 billion tonnes at 0.29% copper equivalent (Inferred). [12]
One important nuance for investors: Fortescue’s release also includes a caution that this is a foreign estimate reported under NI 43‑101, and that it has not yet been reported under the JORC Code; Fortescue notes it’s uncertain whether the resource can ultimately be reported as JORC mineral resources after further work. That’s not a deal-killer—just a reminder that early-stage resources come with translation risk, not just geological risk. [13]
Why copper, why now?
Reuters’ reporting on the deal points to a broader mining-industry logic: big iron ore players are trying to increase copper exposure because demand expectations remain robust, and copper pricing has been strong. [14]
The wider copper deal landscape supports that narrative. For example, the Financial Times reported Canada’s approval of a major copper-focused merger (Anglo American and Teck Resources), highlighting how strategic and supply-constrained copper has become—and noting copper prices at record levels in recent trading. [15]
Fortescue’s core business still matters most: iron ore volumes, costs, and dividends
Even with copper optionality and green-tech ambition, Fortescue remains, first and foremost, a major iron ore exporter—and FMG’s near-term valuation still tends to swing with iron ore pricing, costs, and China-linked demand expectations.
FY25 results: profit down, operational engine still running hot
In its FY25 full-year results release (lodged to the ASX), Fortescue reported:
- NPAT: US$3.4 billion
- Underlying EBITDA: US$7.9 billion (51% margin)
- Record iron ore shipments: 198.4 million tonnes
- Hematite C1 cost: US$17.99/wmt
- Fully franked FY25 dividends: A$1.10 per share (65% payout ratio) [16]
The backdrop is important: Reuters reported Fortescue’s FY25 profit fell to its smallest in six years as iron ore prices weakened, and that the company lowered its dividend payout while reiterating commitment to parts of its green strategy. [17]
FY26 guidance: the “what the market will check you on” numbers
Fortescue’s FY25 release also provided FY26 guidance, including:
- Shipments: 195–205 Mt (including 10–12 Mt for Iron Bridge, 100% basis)
- Hematite C1 cost: US$17.50–US$18.50/wmt
- Metals capex: US$3.3–US$4.0 billion, including US$0.9–US$1.2 billion earmarked for decarbonisation [18]
That decarbonisation line item is one reason Fortescue’s equity story can feel like two genres stapled together: (1) a cost-focused iron ore exporter and (2) an industrial decarbonisation venture builder.
A more recent operational checkpoint: Q1 shipment growth and FY26 outlook maintained
Reuters also reported that Fortescue’s first-quarter iron ore shipments rose 4.2% to 49.7 Mt, costs declined to US$18.17/wmt, and the company maintained FY26 shipment guidance of 195–205 Mt. The same report noted Fortescue drew down a 14.2 billion yuan loan (at a fixed rate cited as 3.8%) tied to its decarbonisation initiatives. [19]
Green iron and hydrogen: Fortescue’s decarbonisation pipeline is still very real
The market has often debated whether Fortescue’s green ambitions are (a) visionary, (b) distracting, or (c) both, depending on the month and the commodity cycle. Recent developments show the company still pushing multiple “green metals” pathways—while also pruning projects when economics don’t cooperate.
Green ironmaking trial with China Baowu’s TISCO
On 4 December, Fortescue said it signed a technology development agreement with TISCO (a subsidiary of China Baowu) to trial a hydrogen-based plasma-enhanced metallurgical process that could remove carbon-intensive steps such as sintering, pelletising and coking. Fortescue’s post says the pilot test line is designed to produce up to 5,000 tonnes of molten iron per year, with Fortescue providing financial support. [20]
Reuters reported similar details earlier in the month, also describing the partnership as part of the push toward lower-emissions steelmaking routes. [21]
Today’s hydrogen headline: a Fortescue-backed pilot hits a milestone
One of the more notable Fortescue-adjacent updates dated today (18 Dec 2025) comes from RenewEconomy: a South Australia pilot plant in Roseworthy linked to Sparc Hydrogen reported “sustained” hydrogen generation using photocatalytic water splitting—a process aiming to use sunlight, water and a photocatalyst rather than electricity-intensive electrolysis. The joint venture includes MIH2 Pty Ltd, described as a wholly owned subsidiary of Fortescue Ltd, alongside Sparc Technologies and the University of Adelaide. [22]
Investors should keep perspective: pilot milestones don’t automatically translate into scalable economics. But they do signal Fortescue’s continued interest in “direct solar-to-hydrogen” approaches that could, in theory, change the cost curve if they scale. [23]
Fortescue has also shown more willingness to cut projects
Earlier in 2025, Reuters reported Fortescue scrapped certain green hydrogen projects in the US and Australia amid cost concerns, while the company continued to position green hydrogen and green metals as part of its long-term direction. [24]
That combination—keep the mission, prune the uneconomic branches—is likely to remain central to how the market judges Fortescue’s “green” valuation component.
Analyst forecasts for Fortescue stock: price targets still sit below today’s share price
Across several tracking platforms, the consensus picture looks broadly similar: Fortescue’s average 12‑month price targets are generally below the current mid‑A$22 share price area, with rating splits that skew cautious.
Consensus targets (examples of widely-circulated aggregates)
- Investing.com’s consensus estimates (based on 16 analysts) list an average 12‑month target around A$19.11, with a high estimate around A$23.07 and a low estimate around A$16.29; the platform also shows a “Neutral” consensus with more Holds/Sells than Buys. [25]
- Fintel lists an average one‑year price target around A$19.30, with a range roughly A$16.66–A$22.58. [26]
- TradingView’s analyst target view shows a similar band, with a mid‑point around A$19.51 and a range roughly A$16.28–A$23.02. [27]
A concrete example of broker caution: RBC’s downgrade
After FY25 results, Investing.com reported RBC Capital Markets downgraded Fortescue from Outperform to Sector Perform with a A$20.00 price target, citing limited upside (in RBC’s view) at the time. [28]
What this means (without pretending forecasts are physics)
With Fortescue trading around A$22.5 on 18 December, the stock is hovering near the upper end of many published consensus ranges. [29]
That gap doesn’t automatically mean “sell” or “bubble.” It usually means analysts are embedding some combination of:
- more conservative iron ore price assumptions,
- dividend normalisation after a volatile commodity cycle,
- and execution/capex risk around decarbonisation and new growth vectors (including copper). [30]
The bull case vs. bear case for Fortescue shares into 2026
What could go right for FMG stock
Fortescue’s upside scenarios tend to come from a few familiar places:
- Iron ore strength persists (or re-accelerates), supporting cash flow and dividends. [31]
- Costs stay controlled inside guidance, reinforcing Fortescue’s “low-cost producer” narrative. [32]
- The market starts valuing “green iron” not as a science project but as a credible premium product pathway—helped by partnerships like TISCO and continued buildout of decarbonisation infrastructure. [33]
- Copper optionality becomes a genuine second engine: either through higher copper prices, successful de-risking at Cañariaco, or additional copper moves that scale Fortescue’s position beyond a single project. [34]
What could go wrong (the risks investors actually track)
- Iron ore price downside or demand weakness (especially linked to China’s steel cycle) remains the classic FMG risk, because it flows straight into earnings and dividend capacity. [35]
- Capital intensity: Fortescue’s own guidance flags substantial metals capex and decarbonisation spend, which can pressure free cash flow if commodity prices soften. [36]
- Project execution and permitting: Cañariaco is a development-stage project in Peru; early-stage timelines can slip, and social/permitting complexity can change the economics. (Local context is always the silent third partner in mining.) [37]
- Resource classification translation risk: Fortescue itself notes the copper resource estimates are NI 43‑101 foreign estimates not yet reported under JORC, with uncertainty around conversion after further work. [38]
- Green tech scaling risk: milestones like Roseworthy are meaningful, but commercial scaling is a separate battle (cost, durability, and systems integration tend to be where optimism goes to get stress-tested). [39]
What to watch next for Fortescue stock (FMG) after 18 December 2025
A few near-term catalysts are clearly signposted:
- Alta Copper deal process
- Shareholder vote expected January 2026
- Targeted close March quarter 2026 [40]
- Iron ore quarterly updates and cost discipline
- Market focus will stay glued to shipment cadence vs. 195–205 Mt guidance and the cost band. [41]
- Evidence that “green iron” is moving from pilot to repeatable industrial outcomes
- Watch for updates on the TISCO trial line and any customer-facing validation (offtake-style signals, process performance, or integration with Fortescue’s Pilbara ore characteristics). [42]
- Hydrogen tech: pilot wins vs. commercial reality
- The Roseworthy milestone is a technical marker; investors will ultimately want to see cost pathways, scale plans, and industrial use cases. [43]
Bottom line: Fortescue stock is balancing three narratives at once
On 18 December 2025, Fortescue shares are being pulled by three gravity wells:
- the daily iron ore tape (still the biggest driver), [44]
- a strategic shift into copper via Alta Copper, [45]
- and a continuing push to monetise decarbonisation and green metals—from green iron trials with Chinese steelmakers to hydrogen pilots that aim to reduce the cost of clean molecules. [46]
Analyst consensus targets sitting below the current share price suggest the market is already pricing in a decent chunk of good news—or, at minimum, pricing in resilience that some forecasts don’t. [47]
References
1. www.ig.com, 2. www.ig.com, 3. www.marketscreener.com, 4. www.ig.com, 5. www.marketscreener.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. content.fortescue.com, 8. content.fortescue.com, 9. content.fortescue.com, 10. content.fortescue.com, 11. content.fortescue.com, 12. content.fortescue.com, 13. content.fortescue.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.ft.com, 16. announcements.asx.com.au, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. announcements.asx.com.au, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.fortescue.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. reneweconomy.com.au, 23. reneweconomy.com.au, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.investing.com, 26. fintel.io, 27. www.tradingview.com, 28. www.investing.com, 29. www.ig.com, 30. announcements.asx.com.au, 31. www.ig.com, 32. announcements.asx.com.au, 33. www.fortescue.com, 34. www.reuters.com, 35. www.reuters.com, 36. announcements.asx.com.au, 37. content.fortescue.com, 38. content.fortescue.com, 39. reneweconomy.com.au, 40. content.fortescue.com, 41. announcements.asx.com.au, 42. www.fortescue.com, 43. reneweconomy.com.au, 44. www.ig.com, 45. www.reuters.com, 46. www.fortescue.com, 47. www.investing.com
