NEW YORK — As of 2:22 p.m. ET on Friday, December 26, 2025, U.S. markets are open and trading in a light, post-Christmas session. [1]
Freeport-McMoRan, Inc. (NYSE: FCX) is firmly in the spotlight as copper prices push toward record territory again—an outsized tailwind for one of the world’s biggest publicly traded copper producers. [2]
FCX stock today: price action and why investors are paying attention
Freeport-McMoRan shares were trading around $53 in midday New York trading, up roughly 2%–3% on the day—near fresh highs for the year. [3]
At a glance (what’s driving FCX right now):
- Copper’s powerful rally (tight supply + electrification/AI demand narrative) [4]
- Tariff-driven market dislocations (especially the spread between U.S. COMEX and the global LME benchmark) [5]
- Company-specific operational updates around Indonesia’s Grasberg district and the ramp back toward large-scale output [6]
- Year-end trading conditions (thin liquidity can amplify intraday swings in both metals and miners) [7]
The broader market backdrop: “thin trade,” record highs, and a bid for cyclicals
Friday’s tape has the classic holiday feel: U.S. indexes are hovering near record levels with lighter volume, while investors continue to juggle enthusiasm for AI-linked growth and a rotation into cyclicals like materials—a category that includes copper miners. [8]
Reuters cited Annex Wealth Management chief economist Brian Jacobsen describing 2026 as a potential “prove-it” year for markets, with pressure on companies to translate AI spending into real productivity and margin gains. That macro narrative matters for FCX because copper demand is increasingly tied to electrification infrastructure and the power-hungry buildout around data centers. [9]
Copper is the engine: tight supply, AI/electrification demand, and near-record pricing
Copper’s momentum has been one of the defining commodity stories of 2025, fueled by a collision of:
- Mine disruptions and constrained supply, and
- A long-duration demand thesis linked to power grids, EVs, renewables, and AI data centers. [10]
A Reuters deep dive this month described copper closing in on $12,000 per metric ton, noting it had touched $11,952/ton and was up about 35% on the year at the time—on top of supply tightness and U.S. stockpiling behavior. [11]
Expert lens:
- Benchmark Mineral Intelligence analyst Daan de Jonge told Reuters that investors looking for broad AI exposure can also end up buying “hard assets” that feed into data centers—copper included. [12]
- Macquarie analyst Alice Fox pointed to “bullish sentiment” tied to tight supply narratives and supportive macro flows. [13]
Tariffs and the COMEX–LME split: why U.S. copper pricing can look “different”
One of the most market-moving features of 2025 has been how tariff uncertainty has rewired where copper moves and how it’s priced. Reuters described how the U.S. contract has traded at an elevated level versus the global benchmark because it’s pricing in possible future tariffs, with decisions deferred into the middle of next year. [14]
That matters for FCX because equity investors tend to trade the stock as a high-beta proxy for copper—especially when copper volatility rises in thin markets. [15]
Year-end volatility warning
Metals strategists have been blunt about the risk of exaggerated moves into year-end:
- Marex senior metals strategist Alastair Munro warned Reuters that prices can stay choppy and volatile into year-end and early Q1. [16]
- Reuters also reported that thin year-end liquidity is exacerbating swings, citing Sucden Financial analysts. [17]
Company-specific catalyst: Grasberg restart plans and the path back to large-scale output
For Freeport-McMoRan, the most important operational storyline remains Indonesia’s Grasberg district—one of the world’s premier copper-and-gold systems.
What Freeport has said recently
In a November update, Freeport said it plans to restore large-scale production from PT Freeport Indonesia’s Grasberg operations, with a phased restart and ramp-up of the Grasberg Block Cave underground mine beginning in Q2 2026. The company also said production from the unaffected Deep Mill Level Zone and Big Gossan underground mines began in late October 2025. [18]
Freeport CEO Kathleen Quirk said the company has incorporated “learnings from the recent tragic incident” into future plans and emphasized safety as operations are restored. [19]
Production expectations investors are tracking
Under that phased plan, Freeport expects PTFI copper and gold production in 2026 to be similar to estimated 2025 volumes—about 1.0 billion pounds of copper and 0.9 million ounces of gold—with output increasing through 2026 and 2027. The company cited an average annual run-rate of about 1.6 billion pounds of copper and 1.3 million ounces of gold for 2027–2029. [20]
The incident and investigation timeline
In an October update, Freeport reported that seven workers died following a September 8 “mud rush” incident at the Grasberg Block Cave mine and said an investigation including external experts was underway, with an expected completion by year-end 2025. [21]
Analyst and bank outlooks: copper forecasts are doing much of the heavy lifting
A major reason FCX has strengthened into year-end is that large institutions have been raising or re-affirming constructive medium-term views on copper—often explicitly tied to supply constraints.
UBS: higher copper targets into 2026 and bigger deficit forecasts
Reuters reported that UBS raised its copper outlook, including a March 2026 forecast of $11,500/ton and a December 2026 target of $13,000/ton, while also increasing expected market deficits for 2025 and 2026. [22]
Goldman Sachs: expects consolidation, but still calls copper its favorite industrial metal
Reuters reported Goldman expects copper to consolidate in 2026 with an average around $11,400/ton, while still naming copper its long-run “favorite” industrial metal due to electrification-driven demand and supply constraints. [23]
Reuters survey: deficits still the base case
Reuters also cited an analysts’ survey projecting the copper market in deficit (with figures quoted for both this year and next). [24]
The dissenting watchpoint: China demand risk in 2026
Not every view is unambiguously bullish. Barron’s reported that Capital Economics’ David Oxley cautioned waning Chinese demand in 2026 could create downside—though supply constraints may keep the near-term market tight. [25]
Separately, Reuters noted copper has at times “set aside” weak China data when the dollar is softer and positioning is being adjusted—but China property-sector worries still hang over the demand outlook. [26]
FCX Wall Street ratings and price targets: a potential lag after the late-year surge
One thing investors should recognize: when a stock runs quickly, consensus price targets can lag.
MarketBeat reported that FCX has a “Buy” consensus rating and cited a consensus price target of roughly $49.49 (based on its compiled analyst data). With FCX trading around $53 on Friday, that implies many targets may need updates if copper strength holds. [27]
There have also been notable rating changes in recent months amid shifting perceptions of operational risk and copper’s direction, including upgrades referenced by market outlets covering analyst actions. [28]
Dividend update: what income investors should know
Freeport announced in mid-December that its board declared $0.15 per share in cash dividends payable February 2, 2026 to shareholders of record January 15, 2026, consisting of a $0.075 base dividend plus a $0.075 variable dividend under its performance-based framework. [29]
Key takeaway: FCX’s dividend can move with business conditions (especially copper prices and cash flow), so investors often watch both the base payout and the variable component for signals about management’s outlook. [30]
Risk check: the lawsuit headline investors are seeing today
One of the notable headlines circulating Friday is a securities class action press release from Levi & Korsinsky (distributed via PR Newswire). The release says the complaint alleges misstatements and/or omissions related to safety at the Grasberg Block Cave mine and sets a January 12, 2026 deadline to seek lead-plaintiff status. [31]
It’s important context, but also important framing: a complaint is an allegation, not a finding. Investors typically watch for any substantive company response, court filings, insurance disclosures, or material updates in SEC reporting. [32]
What matters most for FCX going forward
FCX is trading like a classic “copper torque” story—but with real company-level catalysts layered on top. Here are the practical items investors and traders are most likely to monitor next:
1) Copper’s next move (and the tariff-driven pricing split)
If copper continues to pressure record highs, FCX can stay bid. But if year-end liquidity produces sharp reversals, miners can move fast in both directions. [33]
2) Any operational or regulatory developments tied to Grasberg
Freeport has laid out a phased restart path beginning in Q2 2026, plus an investigation timeline aiming for completion by year-end 2025—and markets will react to any deviation from those guideposts. [34]
3) Macro catalysts heading into next week
Reuters’ week-ahead outlook highlighted:
- Fed minutes due next week, and
- The risk that year-end portfolio adjustments can amplify volatility in light trading. [35]
4) Upcoming earnings timing (still subject to confirmation)
Several market calendars estimate Freeport’s next earnings report around January 22, 2026 (dates can shift until the company confirms). [36]
If you’re reading this after the bell: what to know before the next session
Although the NYSE is open right now (Friday afternoon in New York), many investors will catch up on FCX headlines after hours or over the weekend. Before the next regular session, keep an eye on:
- Overnight copper futures and the COMEX–LME spread (a big driver of sentiment around tariff risk) [37]
- Any incremental news out of Indonesia tied to the Grasberg restart plan or safety investigation timeline [38]
- Broad risk appetite (holiday-thin tape can exaggerate moves; Reuters has emphasized light volume conditions into year-end) [39]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. investors.fcx.com, 3. investors.fcx.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. investors.fcx.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. investors.fcx.com, 19. investors.fcx.com, 20. investors.fcx.com, 21. investors.fcx.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.barrons.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.marketbeat.com, 28. www.investors.com, 29. investors.fcx.com, 30. investors.fcx.com, 31. www.prnewswire.com, 32. www.prnewswire.com, 33. www.reuters.com, 34. investors.fcx.com, 35. www.reuters.com, 36. www.nasdaq.com, 37. www.reuters.com, 38. investors.fcx.com, 39. www.reuters.com
