Fresnillo PLC Stock Forecast 2026: Can the Silver Miner Sustain Its 2025 Breakout?

Fresnillo PLC (LON:FRES, OTC:FNLPF) has gone from sleepy precious‑metals stock to market rocket in 2025. The London‑listed miner, the world’s largest primary silver producer and a major gold producer in Mexico, has seen its share price more than triple this year as gold and silver prices hit record levels and the company delivered a surge in profits and cash flow. Finimize

As of 1 December 2025, Fresnillo’s London shares are trading in the high‑£20s (around 2,750–2,800p) after setting a fresh 52‑week high last week, while its U.S. OTC shares recently hit a new 12‑month high above $36. MarketBeat The big question now: after this kind of move, what does the 2026 outlook for Fresnillo stock really look like?

1. Where Fresnillo’s share price stands now

On 29 November 2025, MarketBeat reported that Fresnillo’s London‑listed shares hit a new 52‑week high, trading as high as GBX 2,660 and closing at GBX 2,644, up from a prior close of 2,584p. MarketBeat The company’s own homepage quote on 1 December shows the stock around 2,774p in London trading, underscoring how quickly fresh highs are being made. Fresnilloplc

In the U.S., Fresnillo’s OTC ticker FNLPF also set a new 12‑month high on 29 November, trading up to $36.36 intraday and last around $34.32, according to another MarketBeat alert. MarketBeat

Across 2025, multiple outlets have highlighted just how dramatic this rally has been:

• A Finimize stock snapshot notes that Fresnillo’s American depositary shares jumped from about $7.38 in late November 2024 to $31.30 by 14 November 2025 — roughly a 325% gain, far outpacing the S&P 500’s ~12.5% rise over the same period. Finimize
• The Times of London reports that Fresnillo’s London shares have more than tripled in 2025, from under 650p to around £23 in early November, massively outperforming both gold and silver themselves. The Times
• A Motley Fool UK article, published 1 December 2025, points out that while the FTSE 100 is up about 18% year‑to‑date, Fresnillo’s gains are several times larger. The Motley Fool

In short: Fresnillo is no longer a contrarian value play. It’s now a momentum stock riding a powerful macro tailwind.

2. The macro backdrop: a historic bull market in gold and silver

Fresnillo’s breakout lives inside a bigger story: precious metals are having their wildest year in decades.

• Gold hit repeated record highs in 2025, breaking $3,500/oz in September and then touching $4,000/oz on 8 October, according to Reuters and the World Gold Council. Reuters
• Silver has been even more explosive, with prices surging to record levels above $53/oz, up roughly 70–75% year‑to‑date, outpacing even gold’s ~60% move. The Economic Times

Major banks expect this strength to persist:

• Deutsche Bank now forecasts an average gold price of $4,450/oz in 2026 and sees scope for prices near $5,000/oz by 2027. Reuters
• Other outlooks suggest gold staying in a “higher for longer” range between roughly $3,100 and $3,500 through 2025, with upside scenarios toward $4,000 as geopolitical and monetary risks remain elevated. State Street Global Advisors

For a company that derives most of its revenue from silver and gold, this is basically macro jet fuel. The Finimize snapshot explicitly attributes Fresnillo’s stock surge to this “precious metals rally for the history books,” noting gold up around 40% and silver more than 75% in 2025. Finimize

3. Earnings and dividends: 2024 results and a blowout first half of 2025

2024: big rebound in pre‑tax profit and a special dividend

Fresnillo’s 2024 results, released in March 2025, marked the turning of the tide:

• Profit before tax jumped from $114.0m in 2023 to $743.9m in 2024 — a 552% increase, driven by higher gross profit and lower exploration and admin spend. Nasdaq
• Net profit attributable to shareholders actually fell to $140.9m because 2023 had benefited from a large tax credit, but the underlying operating performance was much stronger. Nasdaq
• Cash and liquid funds at year‑end 2024 stood at about $1.30bn, with a net cash position of $458.3m. Directors Talk Interviews

Management responded with a generous shareholder payout:

• Final ordinary dividend: 26.1 US cents per share (c. $192.3m).
• Total ordinary 2024 dividend: 32.5 US cents per share (about $239.5m).
• Plus a one‑off special dividend of 41.8 US cents per share, or $308m, paid on 30 May 2025. Investing.com UK

All‑in, 2024 distributions to shareholders totaled roughly $547.5m, the highest in the company’s history. Investing.com UK

1H 2025: profit nearly quadruples, free cash flow tops $1bn

The first half of 2025 is where the precious‑metals rally really showed up in Fresnillo’s numbers:

• Gross profit climbed to $1,022.9m in 1H25. Fresnilloplc
• EBITDA more than doubled, with EBITDA margin rising from 36.6% in 1H24 to 56.9% in 1H25. Fresnilloplc
• Profit for 1H25 jumped 297% to $467.6m, according to DirectorsTalk. Directors Talk Interviews
• Free cash flow hit about $1.03bn in the half, up from $187m the prior year. Fresnilloplc
• Cash and other liquid funds by 30 June 2025 had swelled to $1.82bn. Fresnilloplc

The board declared an interim dividend of 20.8 US cents per share, totaling $153.3m, to be paid in September 2025. Fresnilloplc

Put bluntly, Fresnillo has pivoted into being a cash‑spewing machine at current metal prices.

4. Q3 2025 production: softer silver, resilient gold, guidance intact

Fresnillo’s Q3 2025 production report gave investors a more nuanced picture: volumes are not perfect, but guidance is holding.

From the company’s 3Q25 release and analyst write‑ups:

• Attributable silver production in Q3 came in at 11.7 million ounces, down about 6–7% quarter‑on‑quarter and nearly 20% year‑on‑year, largely due to lower contribution from certain Fresnillo district veins and the planned closure of the disseminated ore body (DOB) zone at San Julián. Investing
• Gold production in Q3 was about 151,000 ounces, down a modest 4% vs Q2 and 3–4% vs Q3 2024, but year‑to‑date gold output is up around 9%, helped by strong performance at Herradura and other open‑pit operations. Investing
• At the flagship Fresnillo underground mine, quarterly silver output was effectively flat vs Q2 but down 6–7% year‑on‑year; gold production at that mine actually rose 4.9% vs Q2 thanks to higher grades and throughput. Investegate

Despite the weaker silver volumes, Fresnillo reiterated its full‑year 2025 guidance:

• Silver: 47.5–54.5 million ounces (including Silverstream).
• Gold: 550,000–590,000 ounces.
• Lead: 56–62 kt.
• Zinc: 93–103 kt.
• Total production: 91–102 million silver‑equivalent ounces (gold converted at 80:1). Fresnilloplc

Management has indicated that gold is trending toward the upper end of the guidance range, offsetting some of the silver shortfall. Joshua Thompson

Operationally, the story is that Fresnillo isn’t hitting a production growth spurt yet, but it is squeezing very high margins out of relatively steady volumes.

5. Strategic pivot: the Probe Gold acquisition and Canadian expansion

The most significant strategic development in 2025 is Fresnillo’s move beyond Mexico for the first time.

On 31 October 2025, Fresnillo announced a cash offer of about $560m (C$780m) to acquire Probe Gold Inc., a Canadian gold developer listed on the TSX. Mining Weekly

Key deal points:

• Probe shareholders are offered C$3.65 per share, a roughly 39% premium to the prior closing price. Mining Weekly
• The transaction is fully funded from Fresnillo’s cash, which was about $1.8bn as of 30 June 2025. MarketScreener
• No Fresnillo shareholder vote is required; closing is expected in Q1 2026, pending Probe shareholder and court approvals. MarketScreener

Why it matters:

• Probe’s portfolio in Québec includes the Novador (formerly Val‑d’Or East) gold project and other exploration ground in one of the world’s most mining‑friendly jurisdictions. Analysts quoted in The Times suggest these assets could add more than 200,000 ounces of annual gold production by the end of the decade, giving Fresnillo a new growth leg beyond its mature Mexican mines. The Times
• The move also diversifies country risk. Until now, every operating mine – Fresnillo, Saucito, Ciénega, Herradura, Noche Buena, San Julián and the suspended Soledad‑Dipolos – has been in Mexico. Opportimes

The Times framed the deal as a sensible use of cash, even if it likely reduces the scope for another huge special dividend in the near term, and reiterated a “Buy” stance on the stock in November. The Times

6. Valuation and analyst forecasts: enthusiasm with a side of caution

Here’s where things get interesting. After such a huge run, Wall Street and the City are no longer unanimously screaming “cheap.”

London‑listed FRES: targets below the current price

MarketBeat’s aggregated analyst data for Fresnillo (LON:FRES), as of 1 December 2025, shows: MarketBeat

• Consensus rating: Moderate Buy based on 5 analysts (3 Buy, 2 Hold).
• Average 12‑month price target:2,308p.
• Target range: 1,400p (low) to 3,000p (high).

With the shares around 2,750–2,800p, that average target actually implies double‑digit downside vs today’s price, even though some brokers (e.g. Citigroup at 3,000p) still see upside. MarketBeat

Other platforms tell a similar story:

• TradingView collates analyst targets around 2,436p on average, with a range roughly from 1,700p to 4,300p. TradingView
• Consensus on Investing.com appears “Neutral”, with a mix of Buy, Hold and Sell ratings and an average target just under 2,400p. Investing

In other words: analysts mostly like the business, but many think a lot of good news is already in the price.

U.S. OTC: mid‑$30s now vs high‑20s targets

On the U.S. OTC listing (FNLPF), MarketBeat’s alert notes a consensus rating of “Hold”, based on two Strong Buy, one Buy, five Hold and two Sell ratings – a more cautious distribution than in London. MarketBeat

External target compilations show:

• Fintel puts the average 1‑year price target around $28.5, with a high near $37.4 and a low around $16.0. Fintel
• Barron’s lists a slightly higher average target of about $31.3. Barron’s

Given that FNLPF is now trading in the mid‑$30s, many of these targets also sit below the current price.

Is Fresnillo expensive or cheap?

It depends on which lens you use:

• MarketBeat’s LSE snapshot notes a trailing P/E ratio above 40, reflecting how sharply the share price has moved ahead of trailing earnings. MarketBeat
• Finimize, using forward estimates, sees Fresnillo at a forward P/E around 9.6x, versus a sector average in the high‑20s, and a price‑to‑book of 1.27x vs a peer average of 1.59x — suggesting the stock still trades at a discount on 2025+ earnings expectations. Finimize

So on backward‑looking numbers the stock looks rich; on forward‑looking numbers, it still looks reasonably priced if gold and silver stay near current levels and Fresnillo hits its guidance.

7. Key risks: Mexico legal case, ESG scrutiny and metal price volatility

The rally doesn’t mean the risk list has vanished. In fact, higher valuations make these risks more important.

7.1. El Bajío legal dispute and potential $630m liability

Fresnillo has long been embroiled in a dispute with the Ejido El Bajío agrarian community in Sonora, linked to the Soledad‑Dipolos gold mine, where operations were halted in 2013 after a court ordered the company to vacate land the court said belonged to the ejido. London South East

In 2025, that dispute escalated:

• An independent, court‑appointed valuation reportedly assessed the value of gold extracted from El Bajío lands at over $630m, suggesting Fresnillo (via its Penmont subsidiary) should either return the gold or pay the equivalent value. Voxmarkets
• Fresnillo is challenging the valuation, calling it “grossly deficient” in technical and legal terms and emphasizing that it is not yet a binding court ruling. Voxmarkets
• NGOs and protection groups such as Peace Brigades International have highlighted the case as an example of human‑rights and environmental risk, pointing to community members allegedly killed or threatened over the years of conflict (without establishing direct legal responsibility for the company). Pbicanada

So far, Fresnillo’s own disclosures frame El Bajío mainly as an issue of asset recoverability at Soledad‑Dipolos, and the company maintains it has complied with court orders. Fresnilloplc But investors need to recognize that:

• A large cash settlement could erode some of the current net‑cash buffer.
• The case is likely to keep Fresnillo under ESG and reputational scrutiny in the UK and Mexico.

7.2. Mexico concentration and political risk

Even with the planned Probe acquisition, Fresnillo’s operating footprint remains heavily concentrated in Mexico. That concentration magnifies risks around:

• Changes to mining law, environmental regulations or royalties.
• Local community relations and permitting timelines.
• Security concerns in some mining regions.

Recent commentary notes that Mexico’s current administration under Claudia Sheinbaum is seen as somewhat less hostile to mining than the previous government, but regulatory uncertainty hasn’t vanished. The Times

7.3. Operational bumps at mature mines

Fresnillo’s core mines have been in operation for many years. Deeper mining, shifting grades and occasional equipment issues can impact output:

• The Times and other outlets have flagged equipment shortages and operational hiccups (especially at Saucito and Ciénega) that have occasionally weighed on production, even if Fresnillo has typically met its guidance over the last ten quarters. The Times
• The Q3 production report itself shows silver volumes under pressure, even while gold and by‑product metals help balance the mix. Investegate

At today’s metal prices, minor volume shortfalls aren’t catastrophic – margins remain huge – but they matter if prices correct.

7.4. Commodity price and volatility risk

This one is obvious but key: Fresnillo “lives and dies by metal prices,” as Finimize bluntly puts it. Their analysis suggests that a 10% drop in silver or gold could shrink EBITDA by more than 15%, given the operating leverage in high‑grade mines. Finimize

With gold and silver now at or near record highs, the risk of a sharp reversal is real. If monetary policy shifts, the dollar strengthens, or safe‑haven demand fades, Fresnillo’s earnings could reset lower quickly – and so could its valuation.

8. Bull vs bear case for Fresnillo stock into 2026

Bull case: still room to run

The optimistic view goes roughly like this:

1. Gold and silver stay structurally higher.
   Central‑bank buying, geopolitical tension and concerns about debt and inflation keep gold elevated, with banks like Deutsche Bank forecasting averages well above recent history for 2026 and beyond. Silver, driven by both monetary and industrial demand, continues to benefit from tight supply. Reuters
2. Fresnillo’s cost base stays disciplined.
   The 1H25 results show what happens when high prices meet tight cost control: EBITDA margins near 60%, over $1bn in free cash flow in six months and capacity for both dividends and M&A. Fresnilloplc
3. Probe Gold adds a new growth engine.
   If the acquisition completes and Probe’s Québec projects are advanced into production toward the end of the decade, Fresnillo adds a large, long‑life gold source in a stable jurisdiction, diversifying away from Mexico and boosting gold’s share of revenue. Mining Weekly
4. Valuation re‑rates on forward earnings.
   If metals stay high and Fresnillo hits or exceeds its 2025–2026 guidance, the forward P/E around 9–10x cited by Finimize could look too low relative to peers trading in the mid‑20s, leaving room for further upside even from today’s elevated levels. Finimize

Not surprisingly, several commentators – including The Times in both May and November 2025 – have maintained “Buy” recommendations, arguing that Fresnillo remains one of the cleanest ways to play a “gold and silver in unsettling times” thesis. The Times

Bear case: priced for perfection after a 300%+ rally

The cautious view focuses on what could go wrong from here:

1. Rally fatigue and target compression.
   Many analyst target prices now sit below the live share price in both London and the U.S., reflecting concerns that the stock has overshot near‑term fair value after its huge run. Barron’s
2. Mean reversion in metal prices.
   Gold and silver are already at extreme levels by historical standards. A 15–20% correction in metals could translate into a far larger reset in Fresnillo’s equity value, especially if sentiment swings from “safe‑haven darling” to “over‑owned commodity play.” World Gold Council
3. Legal and ESG overhang.
   The El Bajío case and broader scrutiny of mining ESG practices in Mexico could lead to financial charges, delays at certain assets, or simply a higher required risk premium from investors. pbicanada.org
4. Execution risk on Probe and projects.
   Fresnillo has not yet operated outside Mexico; integrating a Canadian development portfolio will require new regulatory, cultural and technical navigation. Meanwhile, deeper and more complex Mexican mines still need capital and management focus. The Times

From this perspective, Fresnillo in late 2025 may already be pricing a lot of good news – rich metal prices, smooth integration of Probe, stable politics and no major legal setbacks.

9. What this means for investors

Putting it all together:

• Fundamentals: Fresnillo enters 2026 with record cash generation, a very strong balance sheet, and a clear project pipeline, all amplified by historically high gold and silver prices. Fresnilloplc
• Valuation: On forward numbers the stock can still look inexpensive relative to peers, but on trailing metrics and relative to consensus targets, it no longer looks like a classic deep value play. Investing.com
• Risk profile: Legal, ESG and country‑specific risks are very real and sit alongside the usual commodity‑price and operational risks that every miner faces. Investing.com

For investors who believe the current precious‑metals super‑cycle has years left to run – and who are comfortable with volatility and ESG complexity – Fresnillo remains a highly geared way to express that view, now with the added twist of Canadian growth via Probe Gold.

For more cautious investors, the combination of parabolic share‑price gains, targets that lag spot, and non‑trivial legal and political risks may make Fresnillo one to watch closely rather than chase at any price.

Either way, Fresnillo is likely to stay a headline‑maker on any big move in gold or silver through 2026. As always, this article is for information only, not personal investment advice, and anyone considering the stock should assess their own risk tolerance and, ideally, consult a qualified adviser.