London markets reopen on Monday, 15 December 2025 with three forces likely to dominate the early tone: a risk-off aftertaste from Wall Street’s late-week tech-led pullback, accelerating expectations of a Bank of England rate cut later this week, and a data-heavy global calendar that could reshape rate and FX pricing before Christmas.
Below is what to watch into the London Stock Exchange open (08:00 GMT), the themes that matter most for the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250, and the UK shares likely to be in focus.
The early setup for UK shares
Futures and positioning
- FTSE 100 futures were last quoted around 9,727 (March contract) ahead of Monday’s session. [1]
Reminder: futures levels can move quickly with Asia trading and Monday pre-open headlines.
Where London left off on Friday
- The FTSE 100 fell 0.6% on Friday, while the FTSE 250 edged up 0.1%, with both indices logging a second consecutive weekly decline. [2]
- Precious metal miners were a notable swing factor: the FTSE 350 precious metal miners index surged intraday but finished with a smaller gain. [3]
The immediate question for Monday is whether the FTSE’s commodity-heavy composition (energy/miners) can stabilise the index if global risk sentiment stays fragile.
Global markets: Wall Street jitters, higher yields, and a stronger dollar undertone
US equities ended the week lower
- On Friday, the Dow fell 0.51%, the S&P 500 fell 1.07%, and the Nasdaq fell 1.69% in a session Reuters characterised as another down day led by tech/AI-related nerves. [4]
- Reuters also noted US Treasury yields rose, with the 10-year yield around 4.192%. [5]
For UK investors, this matters because higher global yields tend to pressure “long-duration” growth equities and can tighten financial conditions—while also feeding through to sterling and gilt dynamics.
Commodities: oil weakness versus metals volatility
- Oil finished the week on the back foot: Brent settled around $61.12 and WTI around $57.44, with Reuters citing supply-glut concerns and broader macro/geopolitical narratives weighing on prices. [6]
- Copper was volatile, pulling back sharply after touching record territory earlier in the session, another signal of how skittish “growth-sensitive” trades have become. [7]
This sets up a familiar FTSE 100 tug-of-war:
- Lower oil can drag heavyweight energy names.
- Metal price swings can dominate the mining complex (and sentiment more broadly).
FX: sterling eases on UK growth worries
- Reuters reported sterling slipped to about $1.3375 after weak UK GDP data. [8]
A softer pound can be supportive for the internationally exposed FTSE 100 (foreign earnings translation), but if it reflects growth concerns, it can also hit UK domestic cyclicals.
Bank of England week: the cut is the consensus… but the path matters more
The Bank of England is the central macro catalyst for UK assets this week.
Where Bank Rate stands right now
- The Bank of England’s official page lists Current Bank Rate: 4%, with the next decision due 18 December 2025. [9]
What markets and economists expect
- Reuters reported that all economists polled expected the BoE to cut by 25bp to 3.75% on 18 December. [10]
- On the market-pricing side, Reuters also highlighted that traders had around a 90% chance of a 25bp cut priced in. [11]
Why the BoE matters for the FTSE 100/250
A rate cut can be interpreted two ways, and Monday’s market tone may hinge on which narrative dominates:
- “Easing because growth is slowing”
That can be a headwind for economically sensitive UK shares (retailers, leisure, some industrials), even as it supports rate-sensitive segments. - “Easing because inflation is cooling”
That is typically more constructive for risk appetite and UK domestics—especially if wage and services inflation also look contained.
UK data calendar: jobs and inflation land before the BoE decision
UK macro releases this week are not “background noise”—they are directly in the BoE’s line of sight.
Tuesday, 16 December (07:00) – UK labour market
- The ONS confirms the UK Labour Market release is scheduled for 16 December 2025 at 7:00am (and notes it was not yet published at the time of listing). [12]
Wednesday, 17 December (07:00) – UK inflation
- The UK government’s statistics announcement confirms Consumer price inflation (UK: November 2025 time series) is scheduled for 17 December 2025 at 7:00am. [13]
- The ONS release calendar also lists CPI and related inflation releases at the same time. [14]
Why these two releases are crucial
- If wage growth and services inflation remain sticky, the BoE may still cut, but could sound cautious about follow-through.
- If both cool materially, markets may start pulling forward additional cuts—moving gilts, sterling, UK banks, and the FTSE 250.
Global strategists also flag the UK releases as potentially influential for the BoE’s internal balance between hawks and doves. [15]
The UK growth backdrop: GDP is slipping, and it’s feeding the rate-cut narrative
The latest official activity data has been one of the main reasons rate-cut probabilities rose.
- The ONS estimates monthly GDP fell 0.1% in October 2025, following a 0.1% fall in September. [16]
- On a rolling basis, the ONS estimates GDP fell 0.1% in the three months to October 2025, the first three-month fall since December 2023. [17]
- Reuters connected the weak GDP read to stronger rate-cut expectations ahead of the BoE meeting. [18]
The “week-ahead” macro picture: PMIs, China data, US catch-up data, and multiple central banks
This is not just a UK week—global rates and risk assets face a dense run of catalysts.
- S&P Global’s week-ahead preview highlights flash PMIs, US payrolls, CPI, and a “trio” of key policy meetings including the BoE, ECB and BoJ. [19]
- A week-ahead market note lists: Monday China activity data, Tuesday flash PMIs, Wednesday UK inflation, and Thursday central bank decisions (ECB and BoE) among the headline events. [20]
- Reuters also flagged that investors were bracing for the BoE, ECB and BoJ decisions after Friday’s market move. [21]
For London specifically, China activity data can matter because it can sway sentiment toward miners and other cyclicals early in the session.
UK stocks in focus: profit warnings, delayed results, and deal headlines
Even with a relatively light Monday corporate diary, several UK names are carrying fresh news momentum into the week.
Retail: Card Factory’s profit warning
- Card Factory warned of lower annual profit on Friday, citing weak consumer sentiment and footfall, with shares hitting multi-year lows intraday in reaction. [22]
This kind of update often casts a shadow over the broader UK consumer discretionary complex—particularly into the final stretch of Christmas trading.
Travel retail: WH Smith pushes results back again
- WH Smith delayed its annual results announcement for a second time, moving publication to 19 December (from 16 December), to allow more time for audit procedures. [23]
Energy: Harbour Energy deal and the oil price headwind
- Harbour Energy rose on Friday after agreeing to acquire Waldorf Energy subsidiaries for $170 million. [24]
- But the sector’s broader tone could still be driven by oil, after Brent and WTI closed the week lower. [25]
Consumer staples / index mechanics: Unilever share consolidation after Magnum demerger
- Reuters reported Unilever consolidated shares 8-for-9 following its Magnum demerger, with post-consolidation shares expected to trade on the LSE from 9 December. [26]
This is less about day-to-day fundamentals and more about mechanics, positioning, and how large benchmark names behave in a volatile tape.
Corporate calendar: what’s due in the week of 15 December
If you’re scanning for scheduled results and statements that could generate single-stock volatility:
- Hargreaves Lansdown’s week-ahead schedule listed no FTSE 350 reporters on Monday 15 December, then highlighted:
- Hollywood Bowl Group (full-year results) – 16 Dec
- Bunzl (full-year trading statement) and IntegraFin Holdings (full-year results) – 17 Dec
- Currys (half-year results) – 18 Dec
- Carnival (Q4 results) – 19 Dec [27]
Separately, note that WH Smith’s full-year results are now also expected 19 December after the latest delay. [28]
Index reshuffle risk: FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 changes ahead
Passive and benchmark-linked flows can become more noticeable into year-end.
- FTSE Russell confirmed British Land will join the FTSE 100, while WPP will leave (moving to the FTSE 250), with changes implemented at the close on 19 December and effective from Monday 22 December. [29]
That doesn’t mean Monday’s open will move on the index news alone, but it can shape positioning (and liquidity) in the affected names through the week.
What could move the FTSE at the open on Monday
Going into the 15 December open, the most practical way to frame the first hour is to watch three live “dials”:
- Risk sentiment from the US session / early Asia trade
If the AI/tech de-risking narrative persists, Europe can open defensively—even if the FTSE is less tech-heavy than the S&P 500. [30] - Oil and metals direction
With Brent and WTI closing the week lower, energy could be a drag if crude continues sliding; miners can swing either way depending on industrial metal price action and China headlines. [31] - Rates expectations into Thursday’s BoE decision
With Bank Rate at 4% and a cut widely expected on 18 December, any new signal that alters the “cut-and-continue” versus “cut-and-pause” debate could move gilts, sterling, and UK cyclicals. [32]
References
1. www.investing.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.bankofengland.co.uk, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.ons.gov.uk, 13. www.gov.uk, 14. www.ons.gov.uk, 15. www.scotiabank.com, 16. www.ons.gov.uk, 17. www.ons.gov.uk, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.spglobal.com, 20. www.investing.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.hl.co.uk, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.lseg.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.bankofengland.co.uk
