New York, Feb 10, 2026, 06:35 EST — Premarket
- NYMEX front-month RBOB gasoline futures picked up roughly 1% out of the gate.
- AAA data showed U.S. retail gasoline prices ticking up, reaching $2.921 per gallon.
- U.S.-Iran tensions remain on traders’ radar, while attention is also fixed on Wednesday’s U.S. fuel inventory report.
RBOB gasoline futures in New York Harbor climbed 1.02% to $1.9731 a gallon in early Tuesday electronic trade, marking a move higher for the main U.S. wholesale fuel contract. 1
Wholesale gasoline prices shape what stations shell out, which in turn lands on the price tags drivers face at the pump. There’s a knock-on effect too—transport costs take the hit, and that pressure lingers in inflation numbers and consumer wallets.
The U.S. national average price for regular gasoline hit $2.921 a gallon on Tuesday, AAA reported—almost 2 cents higher than Monday and roughly 4 cents above last week’s level. Diesel? The average sat at $3.659 a gallon, which is about where it was this time last year, according to the group’s tracker. 2
Oil futures softened a touch—Brent lost 24 cents to $68.80 per barrel, U.S. WTI off 30 cents at $64.06—as traders tried to gauge if the U.S.-Iran standoff would actually pinch supplies. Analysts flagged a risk: without concrete disruptions, prices may have further to fall. 3
The U.S. Maritime Administration on Monday told U.S.-flagged commercial ships to steer clear of Iran’s territorial waters in the Strait of Hormuz, advising crews to refuse boarding requests but not to physically resist if authorities board anyway. 4
With few substitute routes available, the strait sits right at the heart of energy flows. About 20 million barrels of oil per day moved through the Strait of Hormuz in 2024, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration — that’s close to 20% of the world’s total petroleum liquids use. 5
Headlines like these have the power to push up refined products, even if demand is typically sluggish this time of year. Gasoline tends to move in step with crude. Still, refinery breakdowns, planned maintenance, and shifts to required fuel blends often drive the spread wider, particularly right before spring turnaround season kicks in.
Pump prices aren’t moving in lockstep. Houston drivers saw an average jump of 9.7 cents this month, landing at $2.35 a gallon, according to GasBuddy. Analyst Patrick De Haan pointed to seasonal changes out West, saying those patterns “will eventually move east” in the weeks ahead. 6
The timing isn’t lost on traders. As refineries gear up for summer-grade gasoline, supply can get pinched—especially if runs falter or outages crop up unexpectedly.
The upside case doesn’t have much to stand on. Should shipping remain uneventful and nuclear negotiations ease tensions, that risk premium could vanish quickly, sending gasoline prices back to tracking demand, stockpiles, and refining margins.
Wednesday brings the next hurdle: the Energy Information Administration is set to publish its Weekly Petroleum Status Report at 10:30 a.m. Eastern. The release gives traders an updated snapshot of U.S. crude and refined product stockpiles. 7
Traders keep an eye on fresh maritime guidance in the Gulf, while also scanning for cues from Washington and Tehran. Price moves remain highly reactive to any quick changes in supply risk perceptions.
