December 18, 2025 — GE Vernova Inc. (NYSE: GEV) shares fell sharply on Thursday, trading around $614 and down roughly 10.5% at last check, extending a sudden pullback after a blistering run fueled by AI-era electricity demand expectations.
The move is less about a GE Vernova-specific blowup and more about how tightly the stock has become tethered to the market’s “AI infrastructure = huge power buildout” narrative. When that story wobbles—even briefly—GEV tends to wobble with it. [1]
Why GE Vernova stock is down today
In market coverage on December 18, GE Vernova was flagged as one of the hardest-hit names during the latest wave of “AI angst,” with investors rotating away from trades linked to data centers and hyperscaler capex. [2]
Two storylines helped reignite the skepticism:
- AI infrastructure financing worries: Reuters reported fresh scrutiny around the cost and funding mechanics of mega data-center projects after Oracle addressed a key partner change related to a Michigan data-center effort tied to the Stargate AI infrastructure push. [3]
- “What if AI needs less power than we thought?” fears: A widely discussed trigger was Mythic’s announced $125 million oversubscribed funding round and its claim that its architecture can be dramatically more energy-efficient than today’s mainstream GPUs—reviving the market’s habit of repricing anything viewed as a “power bottleneck beneficiary.” [4]
Barron’s described GE Vernova as the worst performer in the S&P 500 during the downdraft and noted the stock had still more than doubled in 2025 despite the sudden drop—an important context clue for why profit-taking and “crowded trade” dynamics can get violent, fast. [5]
The bull case investors were pricing in: GE Vernova’s raised 2026 and 2028 outlook
The irony of today’s selloff is that it follows a wave of very bullish company guidance updates earlier this month.
At its investor update, GE Vernova laid out a larger multi-year trajectory, including a 2028 outlook that now targets:
- $52B revenue by 2028 (raised from $45B previously)
- 20% adjusted EBITDA margin by 2028 (raised from 14%)
- $22B+ cumulative free cash flow from 2025–2028 (raised from $14B+) [6]
For the nearer term, multiple reports highlighted the company’s 2026 framework of:
- $41B–$42B in revenue
- $4.5B–$5.0B in free cash flow [7]
GE Vernova also paired the upgraded targets with shareholder returns: a $0.50 per share quarterly dividend (double the prior $0.25) and a larger repurchase authorization of $10 billion (up from $6 billion). The company said the dividend is payable February 2, 2026 to shareholders of record January 5, 2026. [8]
Orders and backlog: the “scarcity” angle behind the GEV trade
A big reason analysts kept leaning into GE Vernova is a simple industrial reality: in gas turbines and grid hardware, capacity is finite, and lead times are long.
From GE Vernova’s own recap and industry coverage of its investor update:
- 18 GW of gas turbine contracts signed quarter-to-date (Q4)
- expectation to reach 80 GW of combined slot reservation agreements and backlog by year-end [9]
- an estimated year-end 80 GW gas turbine backlog stretching into 2029, with commentary that reservations could be sold out even further out as planning visibility improves [10]
On the electrification side (the grid equipment business that powers the “AI and electrification supercycle” thesis), Utility Dive reported GE Vernova expected electrification segment revenue to rise about 25% in 2025 and about 20% in 2026, with the company signaling that the current quarter was shaping up to be its largest for certain hyperscaler-related electrical equipment orders. [11]
Fresh business news: GE Vernova wins a major TenneT HVDC contract
Beyond sentiment-driven trading, GE Vernova also continues to announce project wins tied to grid buildout.
TipRanks/TheFly reported that GE Vernova and Seatrium, via a consortium, were awarded a contract by TenneT to deliver a major portion of BalWin5, a 2.2-gigawatt offshore high-voltage direct current (HVDC) grid connection designed to move North Sea wind power onto Germany’s transmission network. The report said BalWin5 is expected to supply enough renewable electricity for approximately 2.75 million households. [12]
That kind of HVDC work matters for the GE Vernova story because it reinforces the “grid modernization is not optional” demand driver—AI data centers or not. [13]
Analyst forecasts and price targets: bullish overall, but valuations are now the battleground
Even as the stock drops, Wall Street’s stance (at least in published notes and coverage updates) remains broadly constructive.
Big recent price-target moves (December 2025)
A wave of analyst revisions followed the investor update, including:
- JPMorgan raised its GE Vernova price target to $1,000 from $740 and kept Overweight, according to an Investing.com summary of the note. [14]
- Goldman Sachs lifted its price target to $840 from $735 and kept a Buy rating, calling the power market early in an “inflection point” and pointing to GE Vernova’s updated 2028 targets. [15]
- Morgan Stanley raised its target to $822 from $710 with an Overweight rating, emphasizing “time-to-power” scarcity for data centers. [16]
- Wells Fargo raised its target to $831 from $717 and maintained Overweight, citing higher revenue/margin expectations in Power and Electrification and higher EBITDA estimates into 2028. [17]
- Evercore ISI initiated coverage with Outperform and a $860 target, framing GE Vernova as “picks and shovels” exposure to strong underlying cycles into 2026. [18]
- Oppenheimer upgraded to Outperform with a $855 price target, with Investopedia reporting the note tied upside to a larger and longer-lasting AI infrastructure buildout than previously modeled. [19]
- UBS raised its target to $835 from $760 and maintained Buy (per Investing.com). [20]
Consensus snapshots (and why they differ)
If you’re trying to reconcile all the numbers flying around, note that “consensus” depends heavily on the data provider and methodology:
- MarketBeat’s consensus view (based on 34 analysts) showed a Moderate Buy and an average 12‑month price target around $680.52, with targets ranging from $380 to $860. [21]
- Barron’s reported a more bullish snapshot on December 18: 68% of analysts rating the stock Buy and an average price target of $739, up from $681 the prior week. [22]
These discrepancies aren’t unusual—different services weight recency differently and don’t always include the same set of analysts. [23]
The bear/balancing view: “great company, pricey stock”
Not everyone stayed fully bullish. Seaport Global downgraded GE Vernova to Neutral from Buy, explicitly pointing to valuation after the stock’s rapid run-up, citing an elevated P/E ratio (118.4) and a “fairly valued” conclusion after updating its model for 2026–2028. [24]
In other words: the debate is shifting from “is demand real?” to “how much perfection is already priced in?” [25]
The deeper issue: AI data centers are a demand story — and a financing story
GE Vernova sits at the intersection of two giant, sometimes conflicting forces:
- Demand: more electricity, more grid equipment, more turbines.
- Financing & execution: who pays for the data centers, at what cost of capital, with what tenant credit risk?
Reuters Breakingviews put scale estimates on the table: Morgan Stanley analysts estimated global data center capacity may need to grow six-fold by 2035, implying roughly $3 trillion of infrastructure investment between 2025 and 2028, while Goldman Sachs estimated the U.S. alone would need about 82 GW of additional electricity-generating capacity through 2030 to power the facilities. [26]
That kind of buildout is exactly why GE Vernova became an “AI power” proxy. But it’s also why any signal that capex, debt, or tenant economics are getting shaky can trigger fast repricing—especially after a huge run. [27]
What to watch next for GE Vernova stock
Here are the next signposts that matter more than the day-to-day tape noise:
- Data center capex confidence: Any shift in hyperscaler spend plans—or headlines about financing constraints—can swing sentiment quickly. [28]
- Pricing and delivery cadence in turbines and grid gear: Several bullish analyst notes explicitly hinge on “scarcity” translating into price and margin expansion. [29]
- Electrification backlog execution and European HVDC wins: Deals like BalWin5 are concrete proof points for the electrification growth narrative. [30]
- Prolec GE acquisition timeline: Utility Dive reported the planned acquisition of the remaining 50% of Prolec GE remained on track to close in mid-2026, expanding exposure to lower-voltage electrical equipment markets. [31]
- Next earnings date window: The company has not confirmed the next report date in all trackers, but MarketBeat lists an estimated earnings date around January 28, 2026 based on historical reporting patterns. [32]
Bottom line
GE Vernova’s December 18 drop is a real-time case study in how markets treat “theme stocks.” The company has been feeding the bull case with upgraded multi-year targets, rising cash-return commitments, and tangible grid wins. [33]
But after a year where the stock more than doubled, it doesn’t take much—an AI capex scare, a financing headline, or a “power demand might be overestimated” narrative—to trigger a sharp reversal. The next durable move in GEV will likely depend less on today’s sentiment and more on whether backlog, pricing, and execution keep validating the expanded 2026–2028 outlook.
References
1. www.barrons.com, 2. www.barrons.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.businesswire.com, 5. www.barrons.com, 6. www.gevernova.com, 7. www.investopedia.com, 8. www.gevernova.com, 9. www.gevernova.com, 10. www.utilitydive.com, 11. www.utilitydive.com, 12. www.tipranks.com, 13. www.tipranks.com, 14. www.investing.com, 15. www.tipranks.com, 16. www.tipranks.com, 17. www.investing.com, 18. www.tipranks.com, 19. www.investopedia.com, 20. www.investing.com, 21. www.marketbeat.com, 22. www.barrons.com, 23. www.marketbeat.com, 24. www.investing.com, 25. www.investing.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.investing.com, 30. www.tipranks.com, 31. www.utilitydive.com, 32. www.marketbeat.com, 33. www.gevernova.com
