As of December 11, 2025, GE Vernova Inc. (NYSE: GEV) has become one of the standout stories in the S&P 500, riding a powerful combination of AI-driven electricity demand, a stronger long‑term outlook and aggressive capital returns to shareholders. The stock has surged roughly 120% year to date and recently hit a record high near $723 before easing back to around $694 in late trading. [1]
This article summarizes the latest news, Wall Street forecasts and fundamental drivers around GE Vernova stock, based on coverage and data available up to December 11, 2025.
GE Vernova Stock Today: Price and Performance
GE Vernova shares recently traded around $694 per share, after touching an all‑time high just above $723 earlier this week. [2]
Even with a modest pullback, the stock is still up around 120% in 2025, making it one of the best-performing S&P 500 components this year and outpacing both GE Aerospace and the broader index. [3]
GE Vernova began trading as an independent company on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker GEV on April 2, 2024, following its spin‑off from General Electric. [4] It now sits squarely at the center of the global power and electrification story, with businesses spanning gas turbines, grid solutions, nuclear, wind and related software. [5]
What Sparked GE Vernova’s Latest Surge?
The latest leg of the rally is tied to GE Vernova’s December 9–10 investor events, where management significantly upgraded the company’s multi‑year financial outlook and sweetened shareholder returns.
According to the company’s own guidance and subsequent analyst coverage:
- 2028 outlook raised: GE Vernova now targets about $52 billion in revenue and a 20% adjusted EBITDA margin by 2028, up from prior guidance of $45 billion in revenue and 14% margin. [6]
- EBITDA more than tripling: The new plan implies 2028 adjusted EBITDA above $10 billion, roughly triple the company’s 2025 forecast, signaling a steep earnings ramp over the next three years. [7]
- Massive order book: Management highlighted an expected order and reservation backlog approaching $200 billion by 2028, up from about $135 billion today, reflecting robust demand for power equipment and grid solutions. [8]
- Gas turbines effectively sold out: GE Vernova has already signed 18 gigawatts of gas turbine contracts in the current quarter and indicated that its turbine capacity is effectively sold out through 2028. [9]
On the capital return side:
- The company doubled its quarterly dividend to $0.50 per share. [10]
- It increased its share repurchase authorization from $6 billion to $10 billion. [11]
These moves triggered a 15–16% single‑day jump in the stock on December 10, propelling GEV to fresh record highs and putting it among the top 20 performing S&P 500 names this year. [12]
How AI Data Centers and Electrification Power the Growth Story
A major theme running through recent coverage is GE Vernova’s positioning at the heart of the AI infrastructure boom.
Analysts and management point to several structural drivers:
- AI data centers are hungry for power. The rapid build‑out of AI and cloud data centers is creating enormous, relatively inelastic demand for reliable electricity. Natural gas turbines remain a key way to provide stable “baseload” power that complements intermittent renewables like wind and solar. [13]
- Gas turbines as a critical AI enabler. Several analysts have argued that GE Vernova is among the best‑positioned companies in “all things power” tied to AI, with its gas turbine business described as one of the most important pieces of the broader AI theme. [14]
- Electrification and grid upgrades. Beyond AI, GE Vernova is riding a broader “electrification wave” as industries, transport and heating shift from fossil fuels to electricity. This puts its grid solutions, power conversion and related electrification businesses in a favorable long‑term demand environment. [15]
At the same time, the company is still working through a multi‑year turnaround in wind power, which has historically been a drag on profitability. Recent commentary suggests that while wind revenue may decline, GE Vernova expects the power and electrification segments to more than offset this, driving overall growth and margin expansion. [16]
Analyst Ratings, Price Targets and Credit Upgrades
Consensus ratings and targets
Sell‑side coverage remains broadly positive, but the recent price spike means the stock is now trading above many 12‑month price targets:
- A survey of about 23–25 analysts shows a “Buy” or “Moderate Buy” consensus rating on GE Vernova shares. [17]
- The average 12‑month price target sits around $660–$670 per share, implying a small downside relative to the current price near $694 — a sign that the stock has outrun many prior models. [18]
- Published target ranges stretch from roughly $380 on the low end to the mid‑$800s, reflecting diverging views on how aggressively to value the AI and electrification opportunity. [19]
Big calls: $1,000 price target vs. a fresh downgrade
Recent days have seen both highly bullish and more cautious calls:
- JPMorgan raised its price target to a Street‑high $1,000 per share, citing strong order activity and the upgraded 2028 outlook. [20]
- Oppenheimer upgraded GE Vernova to Outperform, highlighting the company’s potential leadership in providing power infrastructure for AI hyperscalers. [21]
- In contrast, Seaport Research Partners downgraded the stock from Buy to Hold, arguing that the new guidance and AI enthusiasm are largely “in the price” after the recent 15%+ spike. The firm did not set a new target but suggested risk‑reward had become more balanced near current levels. [22]
Despite the downgrade, roughly 70%+ of covering analysts still rate GE Vernova a Buy, comfortably above the S&P 500 average, and the average target continues to drift upward as new models incorporate the higher 2028 assumptions. [23]
Credit quality: S&P upgrade
On the credit side, S&P Global Ratings recently upgraded GE Vernova to “BBB”, with a positive outlook, citing improving profitability and expectations that adjusted EBITDA margins should exceed 12% over the next two years as electrification demand and a recovering wind business drive earnings growth. [24]
A stronger credit profile supports the company’s ability to fund large projects, invest in capacity, and return cash to shareholders via dividends and buybacks.
GE Vernova’s 2025–2028 Financial Roadmap
The market’s enthusiasm is rooted in a steep earnings and cash‑flow ramp laid out by management. While individual brokerage estimates differ, recent company targets and analyst summaries sketch the following picture:
2025: High end of earlier range
- Revenue for 2025 is now expected near the high end of $36–37 billion. [25]
- Free cash flow (FCF) guidance has been lifted by about $500 million, to roughly $3.5–4.0 billion. [26]
This year is framed as an important transition phase, with improving margins in core power and electrification businesses and continued work to fix wind.
2026: Acceleration
- Management and covering analysts see 2026 revenue in the $41–42 billion range. [27]
- Free cash flow is targeted at $4.5–5.0 billion, implying strong conversion from earnings to cash. [28]
By this point, the ramp in gas turbine deliveries and grid projects is expected to be well under way, and the company should be benefiting more visibly from AI‑related demand.
2028: The big destination
Under the refreshed long‑term plan for 2028:
- Revenue of about $52 billion. [29]
- Adjusted EBITDA margin of around 20%, which implies > $10 billion in adjusted EBITDA, roughly triple the 2025 figure. [30]
- Order and reservation backlog growing toward $200 billion, supported by about 80 GW of combined gas‑turbine slot reservations and backlog by year‑end 2025. [31]
If achieved, this trajectory would mark a significant transformation from a historically cyclical, mixed‑quality energy portfolio into a more profitable, cash‑rich infrastructure leader.
Valuation Check: What’s Priced In?
After its explosive run, GE Vernova’s valuation has moved to a premium that even some bulls acknowledge is demanding.
A few key points from current data and commentary:
- Trading above the average target: With GEV around $694 and the average 12‑month target in the mid‑$600s, the stock is now pricing in upside beyond what many models currently assume. [32]
- Wide dispersion in targets: The spread between low and high targets (roughly $380–$855, with JPMorgan now at $1,000) underscores substantial disagreement about how long AI‑related demand can sustain double‑digit growth and high margins. [33]
- Momentum vs. fundamentals: Zacks and other services have flagged the stock’s recent 15%+ jump and strong momentum, while also noting that such fast moves can invite volatility if expectations slip. [34]
- “Already in the price” concerns: The Seaport downgrade framed GE Vernova’s impressive guidance as largely reflected in the stock, which is a polite way of saying that execution risk now matters more than incremental narrative. [35]
In short, GE Vernova has shifted from a potential rerating story to a high‑expectation execution story. The company must deliver on its backlog, margins and cash‑flow promises to justify current levels, let alone a four‑figure price target.
Key Risks and What Investors Are Watching
While the tone of recent coverage is optimistic, several risks and watch‑points are repeatedly highlighted in analysis pieces:
- Execution on large, complex projects
GE Vernova’s backlog spans gas turbines, grid equipment, nuclear and more. Delays, cost overruns or technical issues on big projects could pressure margins and cash flow. - Wind turnaround
The wind segment has been a chronic underperformer. A slower‑than‑expected recovery or further pricing pressure in onshore or offshore wind could dilute the consolidated margin story. [36] - AI and data center demand cycle
Much of the bull case leans on sustained, high growth in AI data center capacity. If that investment wave slows, is delayed or shifts more rapidly toward alternative technologies (for example, more storage, demand response, or competing turbine providers), growth expectations could be revised down. [37] - Policy and regulatory risk
Energy infrastructure is exposed to changing environmental rules, permitting challenges and shifts in decarbonization policy. These can affect both fossil‑based and renewable projects. - Interest rates and capital intensity
Large power projects are capital‑intensive. Higher-for-longer interest rates or tighter credit conditions could slow utility and data‑center capex, even as GE Vernova’s own balance sheet improves.
Bottom Line: A High‑Conviction Power Story With High Expectations
As of December 11, 2025, GE Vernova has rapidly moved from a newly listed spin‑off to a market‑leading bet on AI‑driven power demand and global electrification. The company has:
- Raised its 2028 revenue and margin targets substantially. [38]
- Demonstrated strong order momentum, particularly in gas turbines. [39]
- Strengthened shareholder returns via a doubled dividend and a larger buyback. [40]
- Earned both bullish analyst calls (including a $1,000 target) and a fresh investment‑grade credit upgrade. [41]
At the same time, the stock now trades ahead of the average 12‑month target, reflecting that the market is already paying up for this growth story. [42]
For investors and observers, the key questions from here are less about whether GE Vernova has a compelling narrative, and more about whether it can sustainably deliver on its ambitious 2025–2028 roadmap in a volatile energy and technology environment.
References
1. www.marketwatch.com, 2. www.marketwatch.com, 3. www.marketwatch.com, 4. www.gevernova.com, 5. en.wikipedia.org, 6. www.gevernova.com, 7. www.barrons.com, 8. www.investors.com, 9. www.investors.com, 10. www.gevernova.com, 11. www.gevernova.com, 12. www.investors.com, 13. www.investors.com, 14. www.investors.com, 15. www.marketwatch.com, 16. www.marketwatch.com, 17. www.tipranks.com, 18. stockanalysis.com, 19. stockanalysis.com, 20. www.investing.com, 21. www.marketwatch.com, 22. www.barrons.com, 23. www.barrons.com, 24. www.investing.com, 25. www.investors.com, 26. www.marketwatch.com, 27. www.investors.com, 28. www.marketwatch.com, 29. www.gevernova.com, 30. www.gevernova.com, 31. www.gevernova.com, 32. stockanalysis.com, 33. stockanalysis.com, 34. www.zacks.com, 35. www.barrons.com, 36. www.gevernova.com, 37. www.investors.com, 38. www.gevernova.com, 39. www.investors.com, 40. www.gevernova.com, 41. www.investing.com, 42. stockanalysis.com
