GE Vernova Stock (NYSE: GEV) Rebounds on Dec. 18, 2025 as Jefferies Upgrades; Analysts Lift Targets After AI-Driven Selloff

December 18, 2025 — GE Vernova Inc. (NYSE: GEV) is back in focus today after a sharp, headline-driven swing that reminded investors just how tightly the stock has become linked to the “AI power demand” trade. After a steep drop on Wednesday, GEV shares rebounded Thursday, trading around $641 and up roughly 4% in the latest session after seeing a wide intraday range.

The catalyst mix is unusual but telling: Wall Street is upgrading and raising price targets on the back of strong multi-year fundamentals, while the stock is simultaneously reacting to fast-moving narratives about whether next-generation AI chips could curb electricity demand growth at data centers. ^[1]

GE Vernova stock price today: rebound after a brutal AI-themed selloff

GE Vernova was among the most volatile “power infrastructure” names this week. On Wednesday, the stock tumbled about 10%–11%, a move Barron’s described as making it the worst performer in the S&P 500 that day. ^[2]

The trigger wasn’t a GE Vernova earnings miss or a surprise contract loss. Instead, market anxiety centered on the AI ecosystem—specifically the idea that more energy-efficient AI chips could reduce the electricity growth that has underpinned the bull case for power generation and grid suppliers. Barron’s pointed to funding news around AI chip startup Mythic, which had raised $125 million, as part of what spooked the market. ^[3]

By Thursday morning, the mood shifted. Reuters reported GE Vernova shares up more than 5% premarket after Jefferies upgraded the stock to “Buy” and lifted its price target, reinforcing the view that—despite the volatility—many analysts still see structural demand for power equipment and services. ^[4]

Why GE Vernova has become a proxy for “AI data center power demand”

GE Vernova sells into the physical bottlenecks of modern electrification: gas power generation equipment and services, grid hardware and systems, and wind (including offshore). In the past year, investors have increasingly valued the company as a direct beneficiary of:

data center buildouts driven by AI and cloud computing,
broader grid upgrades and electrification, and
a multi-year wave of gas turbine demand as dispatchable power returns to center stage in reliability planning.

This framing was reinforced at the company’s December investor update, where GE Vernova highlighted strong demand visibility—particularly in gas turbines and grid electrification—and increased its multi-year outlook. ^[5]

The flip side is sensitivity: when AI narratives wobble (for example, concerns that AI computing could become less power-hungry), investors sometimes sell “AI power” beneficiaries first and ask questions later. Barron’s explicitly linked GE Vernova’s midweek drop to that AI demand debate. ^[6]

The fundamentals that bulls keep pointing to: guidance raised through 2028

GE Vernova’s December 9 investor update is still the foundation for much of the bullish research circulating on December 18. In its materials, the company raised 2025 free cash flow guidance and issued 2026 guidance, while also lifting its 2028 outlook. ^[7]

Key company targets and guidance highlighted in GE Vernova’s investor update materials include:

2025 revenue: $36–$37B (trending toward the higher end), and free cash flow: $3.5–$4.0B (raised). ^[8]
2026 revenue guidance: $41–$42B, with adjusted EBITDA margin guidance of 11%–13% and free cash flow of $4.5–$5.0B. ^[9]
2028 outlook raised: $52B revenue and 20% adjusted EBITDA margin, and at least $22B cumulative free cash flow from 2025–2028 (up from at least $14B previously), after investing around $10B cumulatively in capex and R&D across that period. ^[10]

Those targets help explain why the stock can snap back quickly after macro- or sentiment-driven selloffs: much of the bullish thesis is anchored in multi-year capacity constraints, backlog visibility, and rising profitability, not a single quarter’s numbers.

Orders and backlog: the “scarcity” story in turbines and the grid

GE Vernova has argued that demand is strong enough to support years of turbine and grid equipment work—an important claim because the company’s valuation depends heavily on how durable (and profitable) this cycle proves.

At its investor update, GE Vernova said it had signed 18 GW of gas turbine contracts quarter-to-date and expected to reach 80 GW of combined slot reservation agreements and backlog by year-end. ^[11]

Industry coverage echoed that message. Utility Dive reported GE Vernova expects to end 2025 with an 80 GW gas turbine backlog stretching into 2029, reiterated a plan to reach a 20 GW annualized production run rate by mid-2026, and noted management’s view that it could stretch production at existing facilities to 24 GW annualized by mid-2028. ^[12]

Meanwhile, GE Vernova expects to grow total backlog from about $135B to ~$200B by year-end 2028, including a plan to double Electrification backlog from $30B to $60B—a metric that matters as grid bottlenecks (transformers, switchgear, HVDC systems) become a dominant theme in power markets. ^[13]

Capital returns: dividend doubled and buyback authorization increased

Another key support for the stock in December has been GE Vernova’s clearer capital return framework. The company announced its board declared a $0.50 per share quarterly dividend (doubling from $0.25), payable February 2, 2026 to shareholders of record January 5, 2026. ^[14]

GE Vernova also increased its share repurchase authorization to $10 billion (from $6 billion), strengthening the company’s “cash generation plus capital returns” narrative at a time when many industrial names are being judged on free cash flow quality. ^[15]

Today’s big Wall Street call: Jefferies turns bullish again

The highest-profile research catalyst on December 18 is Jefferies. Reuters reported the firm upgraded GE Vernova to Buy from Hold and raised its price target to $815 from $736, citing supportive turbine pricing, longer services visibility, and accelerating power infrastructure demand (while also pointing to a “structural pruning” of the challenged offshore wind business). ^[16]

Reuters also provided a useful snapshot of Street positioning via LSEG: 26 of 35 brokerages rate the stock “buy” or higher, 8 rate it “hold,” and 1 rates it “sell,” with a median price target of $769. ^[17]

That’s important context for readers trying to interpret today’s bounce: the move isn’t just a mechanical rebound from oversold levels; it’s happening into fresh bullish research that attempts to re-center the story on multi-year power infrastructure fundamentals.

GE Vernova stock forecast roundup: price targets keep climbing

Jefferies isn’t the only firm pushing targets higher this month.

Goldman Sachs raised its GE Vernova price target to $840 from $735 and kept a Buy rating, according to a research note summary widely circulated on December 17. ^[18]
Wells Fargo raised its price target to $831 from $717 while maintaining an Overweight rating, per an analyst ratings update published December 16. ^[19]
RBC Capital upgraded GE Vernova to Outperform from Sector Perform and raised its price target to $761 from $630 in research commentary published December 10. ^[20]

Meanwhile, Barron’s reported that—despite the sudden selloff—overall sentiment remained positive, citing 68% of analysts rating GE Vernova a Buy and an average price target of $739, up from $681 the prior week. ^[21]

Notably, targets are also diverging, which often happens when a stock rerates quickly. Some analysts emphasize near-term valuation risk after a major run, while others argue the company is still early in a power equipment upcycle with years of price and mix benefits ahead. ^[22]

What the volatility is really about: AI efficiency vs. power scarcity

The debate driving day-to-day volatility isn’t whether the world needs more electricity. It’s whether the incremental power demand assumed for AI—especially hyperscale data centers—will be as large, as urgent, and as sustained as recent stock moves imply.

This is where the Mythic headline fits in: if AI chips become dramatically more energy-efficient, some investors worry data center power load forecasts could come down, and stocks tied to “AI power demand” could lose momentum. Barron’s described the selloff as tied to that exact concern. ^[23]

However, the opposing argument (often cited by GE Vernova bulls) is that total AI workloads and deployment breadth can grow faster than efficiency gains—meaning net electricity demand still rises, and grids still need upgrades. Even in a more efficiency-driven world, utilities and developers still face long lead times for turbines, transformers, switchgear, and HVDC links—precisely the equipment GE Vernova sells.

Strategic news beyond the stock tape: grid wins and supply-chain risks

While analyst notes are dominating today’s headlines, GE Vernova has also been stacking up “real economy” developments that matter to long-term modeling.

HVDC/grid expansion: On December 11, GE Vernova and Seatrium announced a contract with TenneT for BalWin5, a 2.2-gigawatt offshore grid connection intended to transmit North Sea wind power into Germany’s onshore grid. GE Vernova said its Electrification Systems business would deliver the HVDC technology and converter stations, and noted the project could supply power equivalent to roughly 2.75 million households. ^[24]

Rare earth constraint: Reuters reported GE Vernova has been working with the U.S. government to increase stockpiles of yttrium, a rare earth element affected by China’s export controls, because shortages can ripple across energy equipment supply chains. ^[25]

These kinds of items rarely move the stock in a single day—but they shape the medium-term risk-reward: grid wins reinforce growth visibility, while supply-chain constraints can pressure costs or delivery schedules.

Offshore wind remains the “show-me” segment

GE Vernova’s Wind segment—especially offshore—still represents a contested part of the thesis. Reuters and other reporting around the investor update highlighted that much of the company’s improved outlook is powered by strength in Power and Electrification, while wind remains an execution and profitability challenge. ^[26]

Jefferies’ language about “structural pruning” of offshore wind underscores how the Street is increasingly treating offshore wind exposure as something that must be managed down (or at least stabilized) while the company harvests stronger returns from turbines, services, and grid hardware. ^[27]

Key dates: next earnings window and what investors will look for

For investors trying to handicap the next major catalyst, market calendars currently estimate GE Vernova will report earnings around January 28, 2026 (date not guaranteed until confirmed by the company). ^[28]

When GE Vernova does report, the market’s likely checklist will include:

updates on gas turbine capacity expansion and pricing,
Electrification backlog conversion and margins,
wind loss trajectory and cash usage, and
how management frames AI-linked demand: not just “more,” but “how fast” and “how durable.”

Bottom line: GE Vernova stock is acting like a high-conviction theme trade—backed by real numbers

As of December 18, 2025, GE Vernova stock is trading at the intersection of two forces:

Strong multi-year fundamentals: raised cash flow and profitability targets, big backlog ambitions, and a sharper capital return program. ^[29]
Theme-driven volatility: investors are repricing “AI power demand” beneficiaries quickly on any headline that challenges assumptions about data center electricity growth. ^[30]

Today’s rebound—helped by the Jefferies upgrade—suggests the market is still willing to pay for GE Vernova’s positioning in turbines, services, and grid infrastructure. But the midweek drop is a reminder that, at this stage of the cycle, GEV isn’t just an industrial turnaround story. It’s also a sentiment-sensitive proxy for how the market is modeling the infrastructure behind the AI era. ^[31]

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